Blog posts of '2023' 'November'

As goes the dollar, so goes gold in the opposite direction! In fact, with yesterday's dollar reversal and today's upside $ extension gold is facing a critical junction and perhaps a failure of key support following today's early US scheduled data.

However, the jury is out on the impact of today's PCE and initial claims readings, with soft PCE and higher initial claims data still capable of resurrecting the bull case in gold and silver.

Therefore, further evidence of a US Fed pivot early next year to lower rates has been heavily factored with the November low-to-high rally of $127 and it now needs fresh bullish fuel...[MORE]

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Nov 30 (Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar staged a rebound ahead of U.S. inflation data, although bullion was heading for its second monthly rise boosted by hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon.

Spot gold eased 0.3% to $2,038.59 per ounce by 1207 GMT. Bullion is up 2.8% so far this month after rising 7.3% in October...[LINK]

Despite gold being overbought, the bulls are still in the driver's seat with the Feds Waller yesterday giving dovish statements ahead of the Feds blackout period.

It should also be noted that several prominent fund/money managers have predicted US rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024 and that combined with a developing pattern of softer US data should leave the dollar in a downward track and in turn leave gold and silver in upward tracks.

Along those lines, today's scheduled data could present a temporary dip in gold if US GDP readings match expectations of a minimal improvement...[MORE]

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Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday and hit a more than six-month high, driven by a retreating dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished hiking interest rates.

Spot gold gained 1.4% at $2,041.55 per ounce by 3:00 p.m. ET (2000 GMT), highest since May 10...[LINK]

With a fresh new low for the move in the dollar this morning (the lowest trade since September 1st) and February gold prices sitting just under yesterday's new high for the move, the bull camp extends its control into another session.

However, the trade will face another US note auction today (seven-year notes), and we caution traders against assuming somewhat positive auction results today as was noted from the short-end auction yesterday.

In conclusion, another average auction result and/or a soft auction will thicken resistance over gold and weaken support under gold...[MORE]

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Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold held its ground on Tuesday after touching a six-month peak, buoyed by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes, ahead of the release of key economic data.

Spot gold was steady at $2,013.59 per ounce by 1306 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 16 earlier in the session...[LINK]

Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index, M2.

FedSpeak due from Waller and Goolsbee.

Clearly, the gold market has seen the bull camp revitalized by signs of a resumption of the dollar downtrend and has managed the rally despite evidence of a decline in Chinese October net mainland gold imports through Hong Kong.

Therefore, the gold trade continues to focus on dollar and interest rate action at the expense of classic internal supply and demand developments.

In fact, while the story should be regarded as "old" the trade continues to pound the drum on an on-hold global central bank theme...[MORE]

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