Blog posts of '2024' 'January'

While the charts in gold tilt in favor of the bull camp, the upward bias is likely a simple drift toward the top of the last month and a half consolidation pattern.

Outside market influences early today are offsetting with supportive treasuries countered by minimal strength in the dollar.

The gold market is likely experiencing some headwinds following the release of the World Gold Council's latest report. In fact, global gold demand fell by 5% last year even without including the negative demand registered by outflows from ETF and OTC gold-based instruments...[MORE]

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With April gold breaking out to the highest level since January 19th, US interest rates continuing to decline, and a tight range bound dollar that leaves the bull camp with the edge.

Furthermore, the market should find fresh support from news that Indian 2023 gold imports in their latest fiscal year increased by 26.7%.

However, comparative Indian gold imports from the prior year were also sharply higher potentially suggesting an improved Indian gold import pattern...[MORE]

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With a three-day high and a developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows, the technical picture for gold has improved.

However, with a stronger Dollar to start, the positive start in gold and silver might indicate the metals are embracing flight to quality uncertainty from China which saw a major property company forced by a Hong Kong Court to liquidate its assets.

The markets continue to see chatter regarding rate cuts from the ECB and stories suggesting the Fed is already acting which signal a pivot...[MORE]

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While the CME Fed watch tool pegs the probability of rate cuts in the January, March, and May Fed meetings at 2.6%, 48.1%, and 50.1% respectively we feel there is a slightly higher whisper expectation for a rate cut in the market.

However, with the Feds favored inflation measure (PCE) scheduled for release today and expectations calling for a +0.2%, the prospect of a near-term cut in US rates should remain very small.

In fact, to see a rate cut by the June meeting will likely require some contractionary monthly PCE readings...[MORE]

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