Blog posts of '2024' 'May'

While the gold and silver markets are showing positive action early today, both markets look to face a small measure of outside market pressure from a tick higher in US treasury yields and a higher high versus Thursday in the US dollar.

While the gold and silver trade were lifted off the recent low by a glimmer of hope for a US rate cut earlier this (the best odd of a cut is 51.1% for the September Fed meeting) the impact from the Fed yesterday shifted slightly negative with at least two members indicating borrowing costs need to stay higher for longer!

Based on overnight Chinese economic data (particularly retail sales came in softer than expected and house prices fell more than expected), the outlook for the Chinese economy and therefore precious metals and commodities was saved by a very unusual and direct Chinese government support for the Chinese housing market...[MORE]

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While yesterday's sharp gains in gold and silver were partly supported by outside market action (lower treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and renewed US rate cut hopes), we continue to think there are classic flight to quality buyers moving into gold and silver as hedges against a geopolitical or financial market crisis ahead.

Even though the prospect of a significant crisis and the potential flight to quality influences from a crisis, gold has displayed significant corrective action in the face of the escalation of the Middle East conflict in the recent past.

However, ideas that runaway inflation was behind the recent record run-up in gold and silver prices suffered a significant blow yesterday when the US core CPI reading posted the first softening in six months...[MORE]

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Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index, Import/Export Price Indexes, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production.

FedSpeak due from Barr & Harker.

Not only did the Fed's Powell thwart a surge in inflationary fears following yesterday's hotter-than-expected US PPI readings, but he also seems to have rekindled US rate cut hopes!

However, the second critical monthly US inflation reading in the form of CPI later this morning will be difficult to discount if it posts hotter than expected readings.

Certainly, the gold and silver markets will continue to track and react to the ebb and flow of US rate cut prospects, but with strength in a wide array of physical commodities, a breakdown in the US dollar, steady to lower US interest rates, and the potential for fresh inflation fuel from US and Chinese trade tariffs, it is possible that gold and silver will begin to behave like inflationary hedges...[MORE]

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Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early US trading.

US calendar features CPI (+0.4% expected), Retail Sales (+0.4% expected), Empire State Index, NAHB Housing Mkt Index, EIA Data, TIC Data.

FedSpeak due from Kashkari & Bowman.

While international inflation measures might not actually correlate with inflation in the US, the markets overnight were presented with an avalanche of inflation readings registering a range of results from steady to red-hot.

In fact, beyond the standard scheduled inflation reports, the markets also saw Japanese and Indian April wholesale price index readings jump at the fastest pace in over a year.

However, many central bankers and economists see inflation coming under control throughout the world which in turn makes today's US PPI and tomorrow's US CPI a critical juncture for global inflationary expectations...[MORE]

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Apparently, gold and silver traders have had a change of heart over the weekend as the recent revival of US rate cut hopes have seemingly dissipated overnight perhaps because of the prospect of lingering inflation signals from the US PPI report tomorrow.

However, expectations for the report call for a 0.2% gain, which will match the previous month, and in turn that could mean inflation has continued to grow over the last four weeks albeit at a softer rate.

In another negative, the gold market continues to see signs of high price adversity in the Indian gold trade...[MORE]

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