Blog posts of '2024' 'August'

8/5/2024

Gold and silver pressured amid global stock rout

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. stocks start the new week under heavy pressure as the rout that began on Friday continues. Asian and European markets were slammed overnight as well.

The VIX volatility index surged above 60, the highest level since the pandemic sell-off in 2020. While the VIX has moderated somewhat, it's still up significantly from last week when it was trading in the teens before firming into the 20s on Friday.



Signs of weakness in U.S. jobs data on Friday triggered recession fears. Markets were already on edge about mounting growth risks in China. The risk that the world's two largest economies could be heading into recessions sparked an exodus from just about every asset class.

Treasuries are a notable exception. Treasuries surged on risk-off buying and expectations that the Fed will now cut more than 25 bps in September. Fed funds futures put the probability of a 50 bps cut at 91.5% and 8.5% for a 75 bps cut. 

The Fed chose to hold steady at the end of the July FOMC meeting just last week. The next FOMC meeting is 44 days away. The last time the Fed did an emergency rate cut was in March 2020 during the COVID crisis.

The other exception is the Japanese yen, which surged to 7-month highs against the dollar today. A lot of U.S. stock purchases were funded by the yen carry trade. Those trades are getting unwound after the yen bottomed in early July on expectations that the BoJ was pivoting to tighter policy. The BoJ did indeed hike rates on 31-Jul to a 15-year high of 0.25%.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the G7 that an Iranian and Hezbollah attack on Israel is imminent. While Blinken reportedly said the buildup of US forces in the region was for defensive purposes only, worries of a widening conflict are elevated and may provide some underpinning for safe-haven assets.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$29.61 (-1.21%)
5-Day Change: +$2.89 (+0.12%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +24.87

Gold has retreated more than 4% (high to low) after gains stalled shy of the all-time high at $2,481.63 on Friday on deleveraging associated with the global markets rout. When investors run to the sidelines, even safe-haven assets frequently get sold initially.



However, once the dust settles safe-haven buyers will likely return to the yellow metal. When you consider that the Nikkei was down more than 12% today, one could argue that gold is holding up relatively well. 

At this point, it's a question of where the buyers are likely to come in. The 50-day moving average has contained the downside since early July and comes in at $2,365.73 today. Good chart support marked by the 25-Jul low at $2,354.48 remains protected. The 100-day moving average ($2,340.21 today) should rise to bolster the late-July low by next week.

A close above $2,400 today would be mildly encouraging. While I envision a consolidation pattern developing over the short term, possibly a symmetrical triangle, an Iranian attack on Israel could quickly put the record high back in play. 

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

The COT report for last week showed that net speculative positions fell by 26.5k to 246.6k. I suspect we'll see an additional contraction of the spec position this week unless things really heat up in the Middle East.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$1.316 (-4.61%)
5-Day Change: -$0.839 (-3.01%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.45

Silver extended to a 3-month low of $26.571 in early U.S. trading as U.S. recession risks were heaped atop existing concerns about the Chinese economy. Focus remains squarely on the downside on worries about demand destruction.



The white metal has pulled away on the downside from the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages. The 20-day crossed below the 50-day in mid-July, indicating that the dominant trend is down.

The 200-day SMA climbed above the $26 level last week and now corresponds closely with the $26.049 low from 02-May. This level could provide a formidable downside barrier.

The white metal is already 3% off the intraday low, so there is some buying interest down here. Some of it is certainly profit-taking, but I imagine there's some bargain-hunting going on as well. 

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

The COT report shows that the net speculative long position in silver fell 2.3k to 49.1k in the week ended 02-Aug. It was the second consecutive weekly drop.

A climb back above $28 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but resistance marked by last week's highs at $29.125/133 must be exceeded to suggest potential back to the $30 zone.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/2/2024

Gold and silver collapse after early safe-haven gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Iran is reportedly preparing for a direct attack on Israel that could happen as soon as Friday evening. The Jerusalem Post reports that Israelis are bracing for a 1000-rocket, multi-proxy attack.

If Israel does indeed come under attack, there are growing concerns that the U.S. won't be able to restrain the inevitable Israeli response. This raises the risk of an all-out war in the Middle East.

According to The New York Times, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a bomb smuggled into the Tehran guest house in June. It had been widely reported that an Israeli airstrike killed Haniyeh.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a lean 114k in July, below expectations of +181k, versus a downward revised +179k in June (was +206k). The jobless rate increased to a 33-month high of 4.3%, above expectations of 4.1%, versus 4.1% in June. Hourly earnings came in at +0.2%, on expectations of +0.3%. The average workweek declined to 34.2 hours.

There had been whispers of a better-than-expected payrolls print based on some encouraging labor market data earlier in the week. However, this report was a real disappointment and markets reacted immediately. Treasury yields slid, the dollar fell to 4-month lows, stocks tumbled, and gold neared its all-time high.

Prospects for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September have surged to 62.5%, from 22% yesterday. Fed funds futures now show an 85.4% probability that the Fed funds rate will be lower by 100 bps or more after the December FOMC meeting.

U.S. factory orders slid 3.3% in June, below expectations of -3.0%, versus -0.5% in May. Transportation orders plunged 20.6%. Inventories were unchanged, after a scant 0.1% rise in May.

With growth risks mounting in the U.S., it's clear that the Fed is behind the curve on easing, just days after their most recent opportunity to cut rates. Hopes that the Fed would be able to orchestrate a soft landing have been dashed. I have been steadfastly less than optimistic that the Fed would be able to make that happen.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$17.85 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: +$71.47 (+2.99%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +29.24

Gold came within striking distance of its all-time high at $2,481.63 on expectations of an Iranian attack on Israel. The prospects of a wider war in the Middle East have sparked risk aversion, providing a safe-haven bid in the yellow metal.

However, the record high survived the initial challenge and strong selling emerged mid-morning, driving gold lower on the day. This may be associated with deleveraging as risk-off selling on Wall Street intensifies, but it's difficult at this early stage to diagnose selling of this nature.



Kitco News ascribes the plunge to "heavy profit taking" and liquidation by weak longs. They may well be right, but it seems like more than that to me. 

A lower daily close seems all but assured at this point. The yellow metal still appears poised to close higher on the week, which would be the first higher weekly close in three. However, with the market cascading lower, a drop below $2,400 would put Monday's open at $2,389.10 in jeopardy.

Weak jobs data and a slump in factory orders have caused Fed easing expectations to surge. This comes mere days after the Fed announced no change to policy at the end of its July FOMC meeting. Yields are dropping and the dollar index has slumped to 4-month lows. Stocks are getting hammered.

At this point, I continue to believe the dominant trend is up and that losses within the $2,481.63/$2,354.58 range that emerged in the June/July period are corrective. Let's wait for the smoke to clear and hopefully, I'll be able to provide some clarity in Monday's report.  


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.447 (+1.57%)
5-Day Change: +$0.982 (+3.52%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +24.58

Silver was initially garnering some support from a strong gold market today, once again testing above $29. However, when gold collapsed from just in front of its record-high, silver plunged back into the range.



Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market along with indications this week of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector suggest mounting growth risks. This adds to existing concerns about the slumping Chinese economy that have been weighing on silver – and more broadly commodities – for weeks.

Silver is trading just below the midpoint of this week's range ($27.425/$29.133) and appears set for a lower daily close. However, it still seems likely that the white metal will notch its first higher weekly close in four.

Nonetheless, the dominant trend remains negative. High geopolitical risks should provide some underpinning for silver, but new cycle lows below $27.425 can not be ruled out.

On the upside, $29 has gained importance as a resistance level, as has the 100-day moving average on a close basis ($28.662 today). However, I still think trades back above $30 are needed to reinvigorate the bull camp. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/1/2024

Gold buoyed by haven interest amid rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Bank of England cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 5% by a narrow 5-4 vote. "MPC continues to remain highly alert to risks of inflation persistence," said BoE governor Bailey.

While the inflation rate in the UK is presently at the BoE target of 2%, they see risk for an H2 rise in CPI to 2.75%. The policy statement indicated that the MPC will ensure the bank rate remains sufficiently restrictive until risks to inflation dissipate further. Future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-to-meeting basis.

Cable (GBP-USD) fell to 4-week lows, providing some lift to the dollar. 

The BoE move comes on the heels of yesterday's BoJ rate hike and a generally dovish hold by the Fed. All of this week's central bank decisions aligned with market expectations.

The Fed seems to be on track to begin easing in September. In yesterday's presser, Fed Chairman Powell said, "A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September,” if incoming data remain on the current path.

Tensions are on the rise in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut and Teheran. Key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders were targeted and reportedly killed in these actions. 

Iran’s supreme leader has ordered retaliatory attacks on Israel, further escalating the risk of all-out war in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged “There are challenging days ahead.”

U.S. Challenger Layoffs were 25.9k in July, the lowest in nearly two years, down from 48.8k in June. Planned layoffs slowed to 9.2% y/y, versus 19.8% y/y in June.

Initial jobless claims jumped 14k to 249k in the week ended 27-Jul. Continuing claims rose to a 32-month high of 1,877k, versus a revised 1,844k in the previous week.

U.S. Q2 productivity (prelim) surged to 2.3%, above expectations of 1.7%, versus a positive revised +0.4% in Q1 (was +0.2%). Unit Labor Costs (ULC) fell to 0.9%, below expectations of 2.0%, versus a revised 3.8% (was 4.0%).

Manufacturing PMI and ISM edged up in July, to 49.6 and 46.8 respectively, reflecting some level of resilience in the U.S. economy. The ISM prices paid index rose to 52.9, versus  52.1 in June driven by higher input costs.

U.S. construction spending was -0.3% in June, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised -0.4% in May (was -0.1%). It was the second consecutive monthly contraction as high mortgage rates continue to adversely impact single-family home construction.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$11.95 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: +$76.34 (+3.23%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +27.91

Gold began the U.S. session modestly lower, but has rebounded to set new intraday and 2-week highs. The yellow metal is trading higher for a third session.



Despite recent corrective activity, gold ended the month of July with an impressive 5.2% gain. It was the sixth consecutive higher monthly close. This suggests the dominant uptrend is very much alive and well. If Israel and Iran go to war, I'd expect new highs in gold pretty quickly on safe-haven buying.

More than 78.6% of the correction has now been retraced, clearing the way for a retest of the record high from 17-Jul at $2,481.63. Intervening chart resistance is noted at $2,469.09/$2,473.97.

A lower interest rate environment and expectations of further global easing should continue to be broadly supportive of gold. The exception is Japan, but remember they're raising rates from negative territory.

The ever-rising U.S. national debt is another bullish catalyst for gold. The $35 trillion milestone was surpassed on 
Friday. The debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 120%. Interest payments on the massive debt pile are now greater than the entire U.S. defense budget. The CBO projects high interest payments could drive the debt-to-GDP ratio to 166% by 2054.

"The borrowing just keeps marching along, reckless and unyielding," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Regardless of how U.S. elections go in November, I don't expect any relief.

There are few choices for reducing debt, as politicians are generally loathe to cut spending or raise taxes on the majority of Americans. Increasing taxes on the "rich" alone isn't going to make a dent. Inflation through dollar devaluation becomes the only viable solution, which drives hedging interest in gold.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.110 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: +$1.100 (+3.95%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +24.82

Silver remains comparatively soft, unable to sustain recent tests back above $29. Increased haven appeal seems unlikely to overcome demand destruction concerns associated with a weakening Chinese economy, at least not in the short term. A war between Israel and Iran could certainly change that.



I've been saying for some time that $30 needs to be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp. That level seems well protected at this point.

Wednesday's close above the 100-day moving average was encouraging, but silver has retreated to trade right around that indicator at $28.632 today. A close this week above $29 would make $30 more attractive.

New intraday lows on the other hand would put yesterday's low at $28.304 to the test. Penetration of the latter would favor a return to the $28 zone.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.