Blog posts of '2025' 'October'

Gold and silver poised for first weekly losses in ten

Outside Market Developments: This morning's delayed release of September CPI was fairly benign. Headline consumer inflation ticked up to a 3.0% annualized pace, while core CPI edged down to 3.0% y/y.

S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs suggested improvement in October.  The final Michigan sentiment reading for October was revised down to a five-month low of 53.6, from a preliminary print of 55.0 and 55.1 in September.

With inflation in check but still above target, the economy continuing to display resilience, and dovish FedSpeak prevailing, the trade continues to anticipate a 25 bps rate cut out of next week's FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures imply 43 bps of total easing into year-end, little changed over the past week.

Today is the 24th day of the government shutdown. Democrats have blocked a Senate vote on the House-passed CR eleven times as they continue their filibuster. Despite ongoing informal talks, there are no indications that a bipartisan breakthrough is imminent.

U.S.-China trade tensions ebbed this week as the market looks ahead optimistically to the 30-Oct meeting between President Trump and China's Xi in South Korea. However, the Trump administration terminated trade negotiations with Canada after Ontario Premier Doug Ford ran anti-tariff ads in the U.S. that Trump characterized as fraudulent and designed to interfere with upcoming U.S. Supreme Court rulings on his tariff policies.

The U.S. and EU piled additional sanctions on Russia this week after the Kremlin refused to commit to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The measures include threats of secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions facilitating oil sales to buyers in China, India, and Turkey, aiming to degrade war funding and force Russia back to the bargaining table.

CPI rose 0.3% in September, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +0.4% in August; 3.0% y/y, up from 2.9% in August. Core rose 0.2%, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.3% in August; 3.0% y/y, down from 3.1% in August.

S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI ticked up 0.2 points to 52.2 in October, above expectations of 52.0, versus 52.0 in September. 

S&P Global Flash Services PMI rose 1.0 point to 55.2 in October, above expectations of 53.5, versus 54.2 in September. 

Michigan Sentiment was revised down to a five-month low of 53.6 for October, versus a preliminary print of 55.0 and 55.1 in September.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$71.08 (-1.72%)
5-Day Change: -$134.61 (-3.17%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,381.21
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $4,381.21
Weighted Alpha: +57.12

Gold continues to consolidate the losses from earlier in the week, with price action confined to Wednesday's range for a second session. The yellow metal is poised for its first lower weekly close in ten weeks.



This week's sharp drop is largely being seen as a technical correction. Fed easing expectations, along with ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainties, continue to underpin the market. While it's premature to rule out further tests of the downside, I do like that last week's low has contained the downside thus far.

JP Morgan is maintaining its bullish outlook, expecting gold to average $5,055 by Q4 '26. "Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle," said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy.

A breach of resistance at $4,161.10 is needed to ease pressure on the downside somewhat and shift focus to the halfway back point of the decline at $4,193.38. The 61.8% retracement level comes in at $4,237.71.

On the downside, the 20-day moving average has been attracting some buying interest. I continue to monitor this indicator closely, as a close below the 20-day would be troubling to the bull camp. The weaker technical picture for silver is also a concern.

Friday's early U.S. low at $4,045.78 protects the more important $4,005.55/$4,000.00 zone. I am worried that stops below $4,000 could still be a short-term attraction. Penetration of $4,000 would favor a quick drop to $3,947.99/45.87, but cascading stops could lead to a challenge of $3,900.

I expect volatile conditions to persist into next week.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.908 (-1.86%)
5-Day Change: -$3.327 (-6.40%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $54.465
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $54.465
Weighted Alpha: +59.49

Silver continues to consolidate at the low end of this week's range, below the 20-day moving average. Like gold, the white metal will notch its first lower weekly close in ten weeks.



While dislocation in the silver market persists, there was some sense of normalization toward the end of the week as spreads narrowed, and lease rates and the backwardation with futures moderated. Bob Gottlieb told Kitco News that 29 Moz of silver were removed from COMEX warehouses in the last two weeks, much of which was probably destined for London. However, Gottlieb believes “we need another 100 to 150 million ounces physically in London for the market to normalize.”

Record volumes have been seen in CME metals contracts. "Demand for safe-haven assets is surging as market participants work to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty," said Jin Hennig, Managing Director and Global Head of Metals at CME Group.

A short-term close back above the 20-day MA ($49.524) would ease pressure on the downside, favoring additional retracement to the $50 zone. A rebound above the halfway back point of the decline at $51.008 is needed to return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.

On the downside, today's intraday low at $47.844 protects Wednesday's two-week low at $47.551. Below the latter, the 7-Oct low at $47.343 would be in play, with potential to $46.

Be prepared for further volatility in the week ahead.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver extended losses on Wednesday before stabilizing somewhat

Apologies for the radio silence during this volatile time. I've been at an IPMI conference at the Colorado School of Mines. This morning, we toured the CSM experimental mine in Idaho Springs, CO.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The government shutdown, now in its 22nd day, has become the second-longest in history. The Senate has failed eleven times to reach the 60-vote threshold to break the Democrat filibuster. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) has been filibustering for more than 20 hours, preventing a twelfth vote.

The absence of U.S. economic data due to the shutdown leaves the market to focus on corporate earnings, the shutdown itself, next week's FOMC meeting, and the ebb and flow of trade and geopolitical tensions.

The BLS will reportedly release September CPI data on Friday, as a special exception during the shutdown to support Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. This report was originally slated for release on 15-Oct, and there are some concerns about the veracity of the data.

A 25 bps rate cut is priced in for the October FOMC meeting. An additional 25 bps of easing is widely expected in December as well. 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will reportedly meet next week in Malaysia to defuse trade tensions ahead of a Trump-Xi summit in South Korea at the end of the month.  The WTO is urging de-escalation to avert a 7% hit to global output.

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza continues to hold, despite reports of violations on both sides. Vice President JD Vance is in Jerusalem to advance the return of the bodies of deceased hostages and the resumption of aid.

The planned summit between Trump and Putin to discuss an immediate Ukraine ceasefire was put on hold after Moscow rejected the proposal without Ukraine ceding additional territory. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reiterated his refusal to surrender land during a recent White House meeting.

The U.S. is considering providing Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine to pressure Russia toward ceasefire talks. Moscow has warned that such a move would represent a "new level of escalation" and severely damage U.S.-Russia relations.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$89.78 (-2.18%)
5-Day Change: -$134.28 (-3.19%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,381.21
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $4,381.21
Weighted Alpha: +54.91

Gold is trading lower for a second straight session, weighed by ongoing profit-taking, this week's uptick in the dollar, and spec selling on the heels of Tuesday's dramatic losses.



On Friday, after warning of the worsening overbought condition, I suggested a retreat to the rising 20-day moving average would be welcomed and good for the underlying uptrend. Mission accomplished, but I would have preferred a more orderly decline.

It's worth noting that last week's low at $4,004.86 has successfully contained the downside thus far. Let's call the $4,000 zone important short-term support.

A potential double bottom has formed on the hourly chart. A breach of an intraday high at $4,161.10 is needed to confirm that pattern, and re-embolden the bull camp. Such a move would shift focus to the halfway back point of the decline at $4,193.38. At that point, I'll reevaluate the technical picture, but some period of choppy consolidation seems likely.

There are likely stops below $4,000 that may still be an attraction. If the $4,000 support zone gives way, look for a quick test of $3,947.99/45.87.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.628 (-1.29%)
5-Day Change: -$4.843 (-9.14%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $54.465
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $54.465
Weighted Alpha: +57.18

Silver remains defensive and extended losses after recording a more than 7% decline on Tuesday. It was the largest single-day decline since February 2021.



Despite the volatility this week, today's low is only a two-week low, reflecting a market that rose too quickly to be sustainable. Silver is a small, thinly traded market. When you see rapid gains like we have in recent weeks, you have to be prepared for an even steeper retracement.

I don't want to make light of the current market conditions, because I know some were stung badly by the volatility, but on 15-Oct I wrote the following:

"For what it's worth, I also fielded a press inquiry from Vanity Fair yesterday. There is nothing scientific about this, but when Vanity Fair is asking about the silver market, I feel we're close to at least a short-term top."

The Vanity Fair article was published on 16-Oct, and the high point of the move thus far was reached on 17-Oct. Vanity Fair chose not to include any of my words of caution.

That being said, I stand by the quotes they did use. I still believe in the underlying fundamentals and the uptrend. I'm viewing this week's losses as corrective.

The next support level to watch is $47.343 (7-Oct low). Wednesday's intraday low at $47.551 provides an intervening barrier. If the former gives way, the $46 zone would be the likely attraction.

A short-term close back above the 20-day MA ($49.209) would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, favoring additional retracement to the $50 zone. A rebound above the halfway back point of the decline at $51.008 is needed to return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold reaches another new record high, as silver consolidates recent gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Dovish FedSpeak on Tuesday from Chairman Powell sparked a rally in Fed funds futures. "We are well positioned to continue easing policy as needed to support employment, even as we remain alert to the possibility that inflation could move back up," said Powell at the National Association for Business Economics annual conference.

While a 25 bps rate cut this month was already baked into the cake, the probability of further easing in December to a 3.50-3.75% target range has risen to 93.9%. The more dovish tilt has helped to underpin risk appetite.

Powell also indicated that the Fed's quantitative tightening campaign could wind down "in coming months" to avoid liquidity stress. “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” he said.

The Fed has reduced the size of its balance sheet by $1.8  trillion since it reached a post-COVID high of nearly $9 trillion in May 2022. Powell acknowledged that the central bank "prolonged the expansion of our balance sheet for too long," which stoked inflation.

The shutdown continues, now in its third week. Tuesday's Senate vote (the 8th) on the CR to fund the government through 21-Nov once again failed to clear the 60-vote hurdle needed to break the Democrats' filibuster. The vote was 55-45, largely along party lines.

While the White House has directed that the military be paid today via redirected funds, civilian employees will not be receiving paychecks. Over 4,000 federal employees were laid off last week, and OMB Director Russell Vought warned of additional "substantial" mass firings in the coming days.

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appears to be holding after the release of the 20 living Israeli hostages and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners/detainees earlier in the week. However, the ceasefire remains fragile with each side accusing the other of violations.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply over the past week with tit-for-tat measures on rare earth export controls, tariffs, and port fees. The actions shattered a fragile six-month truce, risking a full-blown trade war ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit in South Korea later this month.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$60.18 (+1.45%)
5-Day Change: +$155.29 (+3.84%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,218.09
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $4,218.09
Weighted Alpha: +63.67

Gold rose to another record high above $4,200 in European trading. Elevated trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, persistent fiscal and geoplitical worries, political unrest, heightened expectations for further Fed easing, and a softer dollar are all contributing to the bid.



While the market remains quite overbought, the yellow metal has set all-time highs every day this week and appears to be on track for its fourth straight higher daily close. Over the past month, there have only been five lower daily closes, and just one instance of back-to-back lower closes. Sellers step in front of this freight train at their own peril, and that risk helps perpetuate the uptrend.

The next target is $4,300, with today's intraday high at $4,218.09 providing an intervening barrier. Further out, $5,000 is an increasingly compelling attraction.

Today's early U.S. low at $4,177.60 marks initial support. The low for the day at $4,141.06 is the more important level to watch.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.085 (+2.10%)
5-Day Change: +$3.671 (+7.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $53.586
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $53.586
Weighted Alpha: +78.93

Silver is consolidating recent gains after setting a new record high at $53.586 on Tuesday. While the white metal is trading higher today, price action remains confined to yesterday's range.



The backwardation with Dec futures was more than $4 at one point last week, but has since moderated to less than $1. Lease and roll rates have also moderated, suggesting that the worst days of the London short-squeeze may be behind us.

For what it's worth, I also fielded a press inquiry from Vanity Fair yesterday. There is nothing scientific about this, but when Vanity Fair is asking about the silver market, I feel we're close to at least a short-term top. That being said, silver is another freight train I'd be disinclined to step in front of as supply/demand dynamics remain broadly supportive.

The U.S. Geological Survey added silver to a draft list of critical minerals earlier in the year. Upon approval, which seems likely before the end of the year, it would mandate the federal government to secure domestic supply chains via enhanced permitting, subsidies, and strategic stockpiling.

Additionally, in a Bloomberg interview last week, the CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals said he's heard talk that some central banks are considering adding silver to their balance sheets. Central bank buying and strategic stockpiling would be considerable sources of additional demand in a market that is currently in its fifth year of a supply deficit.

My next upside targets are at $54.427 and $55.496 based on Fibonacci projections off of Tuesday's pullback. Further out, I have a major Fibonacci objective at $60.417 (127.2% retracement of the decline from $50.000 to $11.703).

Minor intraday support at $52.308 protects the low for the day at $51.402. Tuesday's low at $50.495 is well protected at this point, but penetration would suggest scope for a more sustained corrective retreat.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold reaches another new record high, as silver consolidates recent gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Dovish FedSpeak on Tuesday from Chairman Powell sparked a rally in Fed funds futures. "We are well positioned to continue easing policy as needed to support employment, even as we remain alert to the possibility that inflation could move back up," said Powell at the National Association for Business Economics annual conference.

While a 25 bps rate cut this month was already baked into the cake, the probability of further easing in December to a 3.50-3.75% target range has risen to 93.9%. The more dovish tilt has helped to underpin risk appetite.

Powell also indicated that the Fed's quantitative tightening campaign could wind down "in coming months" to avoid liquidity stress. “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” he said.

The Fed has reduced the size of its balance sheet by $1.8  trillion since it reached a post-COVID high of nearly $9 trillion in May 2022. Powell acknowledged that the central bank "prolonged the expansion of our balance sheet for too long," which stoked inflation.

The shutdown continues, now in its third week. Tuesday's Senate vote (the 8th) on the CR to fund the government through 21-Nov once again failed to clear the 60-vote hurdle needed to break the Democrats' filibuster. The vote was 55-45, largely along party lines.

While the White House has directed that the military be paid today via redirected funds, civilian employees will not be receiving paychecks. Over 4,000 federal employees were laid off last week, and OMB Director Russell Vought warned of additional "substantial" mass firings in the coming days.

The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appears to be holding after the release of the 20 living Israeli hostages and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners/detainees earlier in the week. However, the ceasefire remains fragile with each side accusing the other of violations.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply over the past week with tit-for-tat measures on rare earth export controls, tariffs, and port fees. The actions shattered a fragile six-month truce, risking a full-blown trade war ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit in South Korea later this month.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$60.18 (+1.45%)
5-Day Change: +$155.29 (+3.84%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,218.09
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $4,218.09
Weighted Alpha: +63.67

Gold rose to another record high above $4,200 in European trading. Elevated trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, persistent fiscal and geoplitical worries, political unrest, heightened expectations for further Fed easing, and a softer dollar are all contributing to the bid.



While the market remains quite overbought, the yellow metal has set all-time highs every day this week and appears to be on track for its fourth straight higher daily close. Over the past month, there have only been five lower daily closes, and just one instance of back-to-back lower closes. Sellers step in front of this freight train at their own peril, and that risk helps perpetuate the uptrend.

The next target is $4,300, with today's intraday high at $4,218.09 providing an intervening barrier. Further out, $5,000 is an increasingly compelling attraction.

Today's early U.S. low at $4,177.60 marks initial support. The low for the day at $4,141.06 is the more important level to watch.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.085 (+2.10%)
5-Day Change: +$3.671 (+7.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $53.586
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $53.586
Weighted Alpha: +78.93

Silver is consolidating recent gains after setting a new record high at $53.586 on Tuesday. While the white metal is trading higher today, price action remains confined to yesterday's range.



The backwardation with Dec futures was more than $4 at one point last week, but has since moderated to less than $1. Lease and roll rates have also moderated, suggesting that the worst days of the London short-squeeze may be behind us.

For what it's worth, I also fielded a press inquiry from Vanity Fair yesterday. There is nothing scientific about this, but when Vanity Fair is asking about the silver market, I feel we're close to at least a short-term top. That being said, silver is another freight train I'd be disinclined to step in front of as supply/demand dynamics remain broadly supportive.

The U.S. Geological Survey added silver to a draft list of critical minerals earlier in the year. Upon approval, which seems likely before the end of the year, it would mandate the federal government to secure domestic supply chains via enhanced permitting, subsidies, and strategic stockpiling.

Additionally, in a Bloomberg interview last week, the CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals said he's heard talk that some central banks are considering adding silver to their balance sheets. Central bank buying and strategic stockpiling would be considerable sources of additional demand in a market that is currently in its fifth year of a supply deficit.

My next upside targets are at $54.427 and $55.496 based on Fibonacci projections off of Tuesday's pullback. Further out, I have a major Fibonacci objective at $60.417 (127.2% retracement of the decline from $50.000 to $11.703).

Minor intraday support at $52.308 protects the low for the day at $51.402. Tuesday's low at $50.495 is well protected at this point, but penetration would suggest scope for a more sustained corrective retreat.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate this week's record-setting gains

Outside Market Developments: Congressional Democrats and Republicans both remain recalcitrant regarding a CR, so the partial government shutdown will extend into next week. Bets on Polymarket favor a belief that the shutdown will end on or after October 15.

Mass firings of federal workers have reportedly started. “RIFs have begun,” OMB Director Russ posted on X.

Risk appetite is tilted toward risk-off heading into the holiday weekend. The U.S. bond market, the Fed, and banks are closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day; however, the stock market will be open. All Canadian markets are closed for Thanksgiving.

The Israeli cabinet signed off on President Trump's peace deal, signaling the beginning of the ceasefire with Hamas. IDF forces have begun pulling back. The release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is expected to happen early next week.

That's good news and dials back geopolitical risks. However, uncertainty prevails with regard to two key elements of the peace plan: Hamas' disarmament and who will govern Gaza.

Komeito, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) junior coalition partner for over 26 years, announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, amid disagreements surrounding the LDP's handling of a major political funding scandal. This is a blow to the newly elected LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi.

Takaichi was the presumptive next Prime Minister, but the fracturing of the ruling coalition has raised doubts and stoked political uncertainty. Takaichi was portrayed as being very pro-stimulus, so Japanese stocks soared and the yen tumbled earlier in the week. Some of those moves are now being retraced.

The rebound in the yen has put some pressure on the dollar index. The DX set a 10-week high on Thursday, although the overall trend remains bearish given the more than three-year low reached last week.

Michigan Sentiment (Prelim) ticked down to 55.0 for October, above expectations of 54.4, versus 55.1 in September. Year ahead inflation expectations ticked down to 4.6%, from 4.7% in September. "Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month," according to the report.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$17.59 (+0.44%)
5-Day Change: +$121.32 (+3.12%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,059.17
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $4,059.17
Weighted Alpha: +57.16

Gold is consolidating within Thursday's range and needs to close above $3,976.29 to confirm a higher close. Despite Thursday's correction, the yellow metal is poised for its eighth straight higher weekly close. The record high set on Wednesday at $4,059.17 was the 39th of the year.

 

Uncertainty associated with the government shutdown, the political situation in Japan, and persistent geopolitical risks continues to stoke safe-haven interest. Expectations for further Fed easing, a generally weak dollar, mounting political unrest, and fiscal worries provide additional buoyancy.

The World Gold Council noted that "political tension, US dollar weakness, and a flood of investment pushed gold to new highs" in September. All of those fundamental factors remain in play as we approach the midpoint of October.

From a technical perspective, the surge above $4,000 bodes well for a push to the next Fibonacci objective at $4,103.32, with Wednesday's high at $4,059.17 providing an intervening barrier. Further out, this week's gains lend considerable credence to the longer-term target at $5,000.

I'd like to see a short-term retracement to at least the 20-day moving average, currently at $3,818.36, to relieve the overbought condition and shake out some of the specs that were late to the party. Initial chart support at $3,945.87/41.36 is reinforced by today's intraday low at $3,947.99. Secondary support is marked by the $3,900.00/$3,895.23 zone.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.238 (+2.52%)
5-Day Change: +$2.355 (+4.91%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $51.219
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $51.219
Weighted Alpha: +77.89

Silver is also on track for an eighth straight higher weekly close after finally cracking the $50 barrier on Thursday and extending to a new all-time high of $51.219. Today's price action remains confined to Thursday's range, but a higher daily close seems likely.



While the overbought condition remains extreme, it seems unlikely that a top is in. Like with gold, I'd like to see a pullback at least to the 20-day moving average, but it's nearly $5 away at $45.769!

The price surge comes with high volatility, wide spreads, soaring lease rates, and backwardation in the futures market. The discount to spot in the Dec futures is running around $3 today!

Bullion banks moved large quantities of silver from London to Comex vaults earlier in the year amid worries about tariffs. "The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented stress," according to Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group. 

In America, we seem to be awash in silver, as scrap sellers rush to lock in record-high prices only to be disappointed by weak bids. At least one major refiner has stopped accepting silver scrap less than .999 fine entirely.

While volatility will remain elevated, setbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities driven by an expectation that industrial demand will remain strong, and the supply deficit, now in its fifth year, will persist.

A breach of $51.219 would clear the way for a test of the next psychological barrier at $52. However, this week's gains result in a new longer-term objective at $60.417 (127.2% retracement of the decline from $50.000 to 11.703).

As far as timing, normally, I'd be inclined to say early Q3'26, but silver went from $40 to beyond $50 in just six weeks! In a market like this, projecting price and time becomes really difficult.

Intraday support at $49.739 protects the low for the day at $48.769. Below the latter, $48.480 (Thursday low) and the $48 zone stand in front of the low for the week at $47.343.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.