Blog posts of '2025' 'January'

1/9/2025

Gold higher for a third day on haven interest. Silver up for a seventh session on technical buying.

Today's submission will be brief as I'm on the road. If you're at the FUN Show in Orlando, text me at the number below, and let's meet up.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to foster risk-off sentiment. The market is looking ahead to tomorrow's U.S. jobs report in hopes of further clarification of the Fed's likely policy path this year.

President-elect Trump is reportedly considering declaring a national economic emergency once he's inaugurated. Such a move would give him the power to deploy the sweeping tariffs that were a hallmark of his campaign.

Not surprisingly, declaring an "economic emergency" - even if it's just a matter of political expediency - is contributing to risk aversion. There are concerns that the Trump tariffs will launch a global trade war and stoke inflation.

The minutes from the December FOMC meeting revealed that the Fed is concerned that Trump's policies may hinder their fight against inflation. Participants of the meeting "noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated."

FedSpeak is due from Harker, Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman today.

Challenger Layoffs plunged 33% to 38.8k in December from 57.7k in November. “Companies underwent extraordinary change in 2024 due to rapid technological advancement and shifting economic conditions. Most employers are anticipating additional uncertainty with the upcoming administration, which is leading to slower hiring and more layoffs in the short term from various sectors,” said Andrew Challenger, workplace expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$8.44 (+0.32%)
5-Day Change: +$19.82 (+0.75%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,677.26
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +28.15

Gold has added to gains after breaking into the upper half of the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range on Wednesday. The yellow metal is trading higher for a third straight session and reached a four-week high of $2,677.35 before coming under modest intraday selling pressure.



Scope is seen for short-term tests above $2,700, but rising yields and a strong dollar continue to be headwinds. The $2,691.13 high (13-Dec) corresponds closely with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern and provides an intervening barrier.

More substantial chart resistance is marked by the 12-Dec high at $2,723.70. A breach of this level would unlock a challenge of the all-time high at $2,789.68.

In a sign of improved investor appetite, the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw net annual inflows in 2024. "In a year in which the gold price reached new all-time highs 40 times, global investor appetite for gold ETFs finally turned around, booking the first annual inflow in four years," said the WGC.

On the downside, I continue to watch the 50-day moving average at $2,649.91 on a close basis. Today's intraday low at $2,656.10 provides intervening support.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.224 (+0.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.887 (+3.00%)
YTD Range: $28.946 - $30.450
52-Week Range: $21.945 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +25.27

Silver continues to build on gains since the double-bottom at $28.802/$28.783. was confirmed last week with the breach of resistance at $29.885. A higher close today appears likely, which would be the seventh in a row.



The fact that the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 100-day is troubling for the bulls, but these MAs and a trendline at $30.706/821 may still be a short-term attraction. A push above $31 is needed to set a more neutral tone within the range, while $32 must be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp.

Good support is marked by the convergence of the 20- and 200-day moving averages at $29.922/921 and yesterday's low at $29.879. Today's intraday low at $30.037 offers an intervening barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/8/2025

Gold and silver are better within their ranges on heightened risk aversion and dovish FedSpeak

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Increasingly bellicose rhetoric from President-elect Trump is contributing to heightened risk aversion. While it's sometimes difficult to judge whether Trump is being bombastic or truly threatening, his comments have set markets on edge.

At a Mar-a-Lago press conference on Tuesday, Trump was asked if he could assure the public that he would not use the military against Greenland or Panama. “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this, we need them for economic security,” Trump responded.

When asked about recent gibes about making Canada the 51st state, he said military force was not on the table, only "economic force." Canada is in some political turmoil following Justin Trudeau's resignation and proroguing of Parliament until late March.

FedSpeak from Governor Christopher Waller this morning tempered recent hawkishness somewhat. Waller – one of the more ardent hawks on the Board of Governors – acknowledged that the decline in inflation has stalled above the 2% target, but favors more rate cuts in 2025. "The pace of those cuts will depend on how much progress we make on inflation, while keeping the labor market from weakening," Waller said.

The Fed is widely expected to hold steady on rates at the upcoming January FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures are leaning toward a hold in March as well, although prospects for a 25 bps cut edged higher today to 39.7% versus 36.1% yesterday. Today's release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will hopefully reveal additional cues as to the likely policy path.

Despite Waller's somewhat dovish comments and some mixed labor market data, yields at the long end of the curve remain elevated near cycle highs. Helped by favorable interest rate differentials and some haven interest, the dollar index has moved to new highs for the week and is back within striking distance of last week's more than two-year high at 109.53.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 3.7% in the 3-Jan week, versus -12.6% in the previous week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline as the 30-year mortgage rate rose to a 26-week high of 6.99%.

ADP Employment Survey saw private sector jobs rise 122k in December, below expectations of 138k, versus 146k in November. The soft print implies some risk for an NFP undershoot on Friday.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 10k to a 45-week low of 201k in the week ended 4-Jan, below expectations of 220k, versus 211k in the previous weeks. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1,867k in the 28-Dec week versus a downward revised 1,834k in the previous week.

Wholesale Sales rose 0.6% in November, above expectations of +0.3%, versus a negative revised -0.3% in October. Wholesale inventories fell 0.2%, versus a negative revised unch in October.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$3.14 (+0.12%)
5-Day Change: +$50.09 (+1.92%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,664.53
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +26.74

Gold rose to four-week highs, spurred by risk-off sentiment and modestly dovish FedSpeak from Waller. The yellow metal has moved into the upper half of the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range since mid-December.



With gold back above all the major moving averages, scope is now seen for probes above $2,700. The $2,691.13 high (13-Dec) corresponds closely with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern and provides an intervening barrier.

Penetration of this level would target $2,723.70 (12-Dec high) initially, which must be cleared to set up a retest of the record high at $2,789.68. New all-time highs would lend credence to a measuring objective around $2936, with potential to the previously established $3,000 target.

On the downside, I'm watching the 50-day moving average at $2,651.97 on a close basis. A pivot point at $2,648.18 and the intraday low at $2,645.74 bolster this support zone.

Silver is holding on to gains above $30 after reaching a three-week high of $30.347 on Tuesday. The white metal is being helped by today's strength in gold, but a firm dollar, rising trade tensions, and persistent uncertainty about China's growth prospects limit the upside.



The $30.347 level marks an intervening barrier ahead of the 50- and 100-day moving averages which are at $30.788 and $30.812. A push above $31 is needed to set a more neutral tone within the range, while $32 must be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp.

A close below the 200-day MA at $29.900 would leave Monday's low at $29.442 vulnerable to a retest. Below the latter, the $28.802/783 lows would be back in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/7/2025

Gold continues to coil within its range, while silver struggles above $30

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets still seem to be giving some credence to yesterday's WaPo article that suggested President-elect Trump would take a more measured approach to trade and tariffs, despite Trump himself dismissing the story as "fake news." These hopes have bolstered the currencies of some U.S. trading partners and weighed on the greenback.

The dollar index has backed off the more than two-year high set last week at 109.53, but these losses are seen as corrective. The downside in the dollar is limited with U.S. yields at the long end of the curve approaching their cycle highs.

The generally favorable interest rate environment in the U.S. will continue to attract capital flows, providing support for the dollar. The comparatively robust economy has major U.S. stock indexes near record highs and will continue to be an attraction for overseas capital as well.

Today's U.S. job openings and services ISM data reinforce the notion that the U.S. economy remains on a good growth trajectory, but inflation has not been completely tamed. The Fed is expected to hold steady on rates at the January FOMC meeting and prospects for a March hold are on the rise.

The Canadian Parliament is in prorogue (suspense) until 24-Mar following yesterday's resignation of Justin Trudeau. While Trudeau dodges a confidence vote, it effectively leaves Canada with a lame-duck PM and no Parliament just as Trump's second presidency is about to begin.

With potentially crippling tariffs looming, Canada is without leadership to try and mitigate the damage. I suspect Trump will be disinclined to negotiate with Trudeau given the current circumstances.  

The Liberal Party and the Social Democrats are going to have to distance themselves from Trudeau in the weeks ahead and try and rebrand themselves to avoid a lambasting in the October national election. That seems like a tall order, setting the stage for Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre to become PM this fall.

Today's visit by Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland is an interesting storyline. At a minimum, it feels like President-elect Trump is trying to pull Greenland away from Denmark and Europe and into the U.S. sphere of influence. Greenland has huge untapped reserves of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, strategic metals, and precious metals that any number of countries view as desirable.

Trade Balance widened to $78.2 bln in November on expectations of $78.1 bln, versus a revised $73.6 bln in October. The surge in imports is likely attributable to frontloading ahead of Trump's tariffs and may have an adverse impact on Q4 GDP.

Services ISM rose two points to 54.1 in December, above expectations of 53.0, versus 52.1 in November. It was the sixth consecutive month of expansion. Prices paid surged 6.2 points to a ten-month high of 64.4. 

JOLTS Job Openings jumped 259k to a six-month high of 8,089k in November, above expectations of 7,740k, versus an upward revised 7,839k in October. There are 1.1 job openings for each job seeker, indicative of a robust labor market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$12.61 (+0.48%)
5-Day Change: +$54.98 (+2.11%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,664.53
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +27.10

Gold approached last week's high in overseas trading, but subsequently retreated on strong U.S. data that further dimmed Q1 rate cut prospects. The yellow metal continues to coil within the well-defined $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range with firmness in yields and the dollar limiting the upside.



Ongoing political and geopolitical uncertainty remain supportive factors. News that global central banks bought a net 53 tonnes of gold in November provides additional encouragement to the bull camp.

"The gold price dip in November, following the US election, may have provided some central banks with added impetus to accumulate," suggested the World Gold Council.

Poland was the largest buyer, adding 21 tonnes to reserves. The data confirmed that China is back in the market after a six-month hiatus. The PBoC added 5 tonnes to its holdings.

The COT report for the week ended 6-Jan revealed a modest 0.3k dip in net speculative long positions from 247.6k contracts in the previous week to 247.3k. While minimal it was the third straight week of contraction in spec long positioning.

I continue to watch the 50-day moving average ($2,653.54) on the upside and the 100-day ($2,626.35) on the downside. More important resistance is clearly defined by $2,664.53/65.55, where last week's high corresponds closely with the midpoint of the range.

A move into the upper half of the range would bode well for fresh tests above $2,700. Such a move would constitute an upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern, but chart resistance at $2,723.70 (12-Dec high) must also be cleared to put gold back on track for new record highs above $2,789.68.

The next target would be the $2936 zone based on a measuring objective. However, the $3,000 psychological barrier remains a valid target as well.

A close back below the 100-day MA would set a weaker tone within the range, highlighting $2,607.16 initially. Below that, recent lows at $2,597.53 and $2,585.51 would be vulnerable to tests.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.282 (+0.94%)
5-Day Change: +$1.340 (+4.63%)
YTD Range: $28.946 - $30.316
52-Week Range: $21.945 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +24.39

Silver edged to a three-week high in early U.S. trading before strong yields and a rebound in the dollar sparked intraday selling interest. The white metal is having some difficulty sustaining gains above the 20-day moving average, despite yesterday's confirmation of the small double-bottom at $28.802/$28.783.



Encouraging U.S. economic data are at a minimum limiting the downside potential of silver. However, growth risks elsewhere in the world and the threat of heightened trade tensions pose a headwind.

Chinese policymakers have repeatedly pledged fiscal and monetary stimulus. Just last week China said it would increase funding via ultra-long treasuries to spark the economy.  However, investors remain hesitant.

A short-term close above the 20-day MA ($30.085) would bode well for an upside extension to challenge the convergence of the 50- and 100-day MAs just below $31. I still think it will take gains back above $32 to revive the bull camp's confidence.

The COT report for last week showed that net speculative long positions fell 2.3k to 37.9k contracts, versus  40.2k in the previous week. It was the fourth straight weekly decline.

A close below the 200-day MA at $29.874 and a subsequent breach of a pivot point at $29.899 would leave Monday's low at $29.442 vulnerable to a retest. Below the latter, the $28.802/783 lows would be back in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/6/2025

Gold and silver retreat from earlier gains weighed by firm yields and dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: It's a new week and the political turmoil continues. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned and requested that the Governor General prorogue (suspend) Parliament until March 24. Additionally, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said over the weekend that he would resign after attempts to form a government failed.

Since taking office in 2015, Trudeau has presided over a striking stagnation of living standards attributed to overspending, over-taxation, unrestrained immigration, and a hamstringing of Canada's natural resource industry. Canadian per capita GDP is now on par with the poorest states in America.

After taking office, Trudeau famously postulated that Canada was the world's first “post-national state." He claimed, “There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada.”

The mainstream Canadians that Trudeau believed no longer existed were/are going to deliver a crushing defeat to the Liberal Party in October. Seeing the writing on the wall, and fearful of a no-confidence vote this week, Trudeau has resigned as his party leader and PM. He will remain in office until his replacement is named.

Many Canadians believe that Trudeau overreached with COVID policies, amplifying the detrimental economic impact. Trudeau's use of the Emergencies Act in 2022 to break up the truckers' protest also contributed to the stunning plunge in his popularity.

Negotiations collapsed in Austria after Nehammer's People's Party and the Social Democratic Party were unable to find common ground over a record deficit. The decision to end talks "is not a good decision for our country” said SPO leader Andreas Babler. 

Austria's deficit stems from weak investment and demand for capital goods. The fact that the country's largest trading partner – Germany – is teetering on the brink of recession is certainly a contributing factor that seems unlikely to be resolved any time soon.

Congress is meeting to certify the 2024 election results that will set the stage for Donald Trump's inauguration on 20-Jan. President Biden has reiterated his commitment to the peaceful transfer of power.

A report in the Washington Post said that Trump would take a softer approach on trade and tariffs initially roiled markets. Trump was quick to refute the story via the Truth Social platform.

The Philippines is objecting to the presence of a large Chinese coast guard vessel, deemed "the monster," that is operating within its exclusive economic zone. The Chinese ship has thus far refused to leave the area so the Phillipino military has deployed assets to monitor the ship's activity.

This is just the latest in a long string of provocative actions in the region perpetrated by both China and Russia leading to heightened geopolitical risks. Along with the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan have also seen increased incursions into their airspace and claimed territorial waters.

S&P Global Services PMI was revised down to 56.8 in December, versus a 58.5 flash reading, paring the rise from 56.1 in November. The final Dec reading was still a 33-month high. "The improved performance of the service sector has more than offset a continued drag on the economy from the manufacturing sector, meaning the survey data point to another robust expansion of the economy in the fourth quarter after the 3.1% GDP growth seen in the third quarter," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Factory Orders fell 0.4% in November, in line with expectations, versus a positive revised +0.5% in November (was +0.2%). Inventories rose 0.3%, versus -0.1% in November.  


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$5.85 (+0.22%)
5-Day Change: +$22.28 (+0.85%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,664.53
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +25.94

Gold continues to consolidate within the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range. The yellow metal is being squeezed between the rising 100-day moving average and the declining 50-day as the market awaits further clarity on the Fed's intentions for 2025 and the Trump inauguration.



Gold was bolstered ahead of the U.S. open by a WaPo article indicating Trump would take a more measured approach to trade and tariffs. The article initially sparked buying in the currencies of U.S. trading partners, knocking the dollar index back to last week's low.

After Trump dismissed the reporting as "fake news," the dollar firmed and gold gave back those early gains.

FedSpeak from Governor Lisa Cook reinforced expectations that the central bank will proceed more cautiously on rate cuts this year. The 10-year yield is back above 4.6%, within striking distance of the cycle highs around 5.0%. Rising yields are a headwind for gold.

The 100-day MA comes in at $2,624.94 today and has been tested. A close below this indicator would suggest a more vulnerable tone with potential back to the range low at $2,541.42.

On the upside, the midpoint of the range at $2,665.55 was reinforced by last week's high at $2,664.53. Today's intraday high at $2,647.38 now provides an intervening barrier. A breach of $2,664.53/$2,665.55 is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range. Such a move would favor renewed tests above $2,700 with potential to challenge the 12-Dec high at $2,723.70.

Silver jumped to a three-week high above $30, heartened by hopes of less aggressive trade policies from incoming President Trump. While those hopes were dashed by Trump, the white metal remains higher on the day.



The breach of resistance at $29.885 (27-Dec high) confirmed the small double-bottom at $28.802/$28.783. While the move back above the 200-day moving average and the probe above the 20-day offer some additional encouragement to the bull camp, the downside still appears vulnerable.

It would take a rebound above $32 to re-instill a measure of confidence in the longer-term uptrend. Formidable resistance is marked by the December highs at $32.255/306. This level is reinforced by the halfway-back point of the decline off the $34.853 cycle high at $31.818.

Intervening barriers are defined by today's earlier high at $30.308, and the convergence of the 50- and 100-day MA just below $31.

A close back below the 200-day MA at $29.849 and a subsequent breach of a pivot point at $29.667 would set up renewed attacks on the $28.802/783 lows.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features S&P Global Services PMI, Factory Orders, FedSpeak from Cook.

1/3/2025

Gold retreats from the midpoint of its range, while silver holds on to gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite has rebounded as the latest evidence suggests the perpetrator of the New Orleans terrorist attack was most likely working alone. It is also increasingly apparent that there is no connection with the cybertruck bombing in Las Vegas.

The dollar index has backed off yesterday's more than two-year high as haven interest moderated and Sterling and the euro stabilized somewhat. However, the DX continues to trade at levels last seen in November 2022, with some underpinning provided by today's U.S. Manufacturing ISM beat.

The currencies of countries where exports to the U.S. are significant contributors to GDP have been under pressure in advance of the second coming of Donald Trump. Those countries – some already under economic duress – could see growth risks amplified if Trump imposes the tariffs he promised.

Countries that have tariffs imposed upon them frequently respond with retaliatory tariffs. It's a fine line they walk between merely signaling they won't sit idly by and take it, versus escalation to a trade war.

The U.S. consumer market is the largest in the world by a wide margin. It's bigger than Europe's and China's combined (based on 2023 figures). Exporters want – and arguably need – access to the U.S. market. Trump is prepared to use that leverage to get more favorable trade deals, but also U.S. favorable movement on other issues such as defense and immigration.

Markets are at least somewhat fearful a trade war will ensue, driving up prices worldwide and adversely impacting growth. It's going to be interesting to see how things unfold once Trump takes office, but I do expect markets to remain on edge.

Richmond Fed President Barkin (moderate hawk) spoke today and touted that the U.S. economy is in a "good place." Barkin sees more upside than downside but feels there is more to do on the inflation front. That view reinforces expectations for a shallower easing path in the year ahead.

Manufacturing ISM rose to a nine-month high of 49.3 in December, above expectations of 48.2, versus 48.4 in November. Prices rebounded to 52.5 from 50.3 in November.

Auto and light truck sales for December come out this afternoon. Median expectations are 1.0M and 10.8M respectively.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.21 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$14.30 (+0.54%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,664.53
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +26.74

Gold has retreated deeper into the lower half of the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range, weighed by diminished haven interest and a still-strong dollar. Despite the weaker intraday tone, the yellow metal appears headed for its first higher weekly close in three.



The yellow metal traded above the 50-day moving average in Asia to pressure the midpoint of that range but was unable to break through. This leaves the short-term tone neutral to perhaps slightly bearish within the range.

The market may want to see President Trump's initial raft of executive orders before picking a direction.

While further attacks on the downside must be considered, I continue to believe the large symmetrical triangle that has formed since the all-time high was established at $2,789.68 on 30-Oct is a continuation pattern within the long-term uptrend. An eventual upside breakout would bode well for the attainment of the previously established $3,000 objective.

The first step to reinvigorating the bull camp would be a climb back into the upper half of the range, but that resistance at $2,665.55 has been reinforced by today's price action. More substantial chart resistance at $2,723.70 (12-Dec high) remains well protected for the time being. I see that level is the key to unlocking a challenge of the record high.

So far the 20-day moving average at $2,638.28 has contained the downside, but I'm more curious to see how prices react to the 100-day $2.623. We've already seen several closes below the 100-day. Another might be encouraging to the bear camp, leading to a challenge of key support at $2,541.42.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.247 (+0.84%)
5-Day Change: +$0.088 (+0.30%)
YTD Range: $28.946 - $29.870
52-Week Range: $21.945 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +22.28

Silver remains higher on the day despite losses in gold. A close above $29.389 today seems likely, which would confirm the first higher weekly close in four. The bulls may have been heartened by today's U.S. manufacturing print.



Last week's high $29.885 contained the upside in early U.S. trading, preventing confirmation of the  $28.802/$28.783 double bottom and keeping $30 at bay. The 200-day MA is at $29.824 today and we appear destined for another close below it, suggesting the downside remains vulnerable. Another run at the cycle lows can not be ruled out. 

I'm still waiting for a climb back above $32 to set a more favorable tone. That level might be the attraction if silver can manage to first regain the $30 handle.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
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Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.