Blog posts of '2025' 'July'

Gold rebounds back into the upper half of the range, spurred by rising trade tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. is ramping up pressure on its trading partners ahead of the July 9 tariff-hike deadline. "We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can't get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels," said Treasury Secretary Bessent.

President Trump has indicated that he will not extend the tariff pause. He is now threatening to halt negotiations with Japan over stalled talks, a tactic he has already used to get Canada to rescind a digital service tax.

The Senate has passed the "big, beautiful bill" with VP Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. The legislation now returns to the House, where a handful of Republicans have already expressed displeasure with the Senate changes, raising doubts about swift passage.

Speaker Johnson is hoping for a House vote on Wednesday. "We're going to pass this bill one way or the other," said Johnson. He seems optimistic that it will be on President Trump's desk by July 4.

At a central bank forum in Spain, Chairman Powell suggested the Fed would have cut rates this year if not for President Trump's tariff policies. “A solid majority of (Fed officials) do expect that it will become appropriate later this year to begin to reduce rates again,” Powell said. He would not take July off the table, but the market still sees a cut this month as unlikely.

Russia launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began on Sunday. Russia also reportedly captured additional territory in the Donetsk region, but at a high cost.

Iran is attempting to set the terms of renewed negotiations on its nuclear program. Iran's foreign minister says the U.S. must rule out more strikes, and does not appear optimistic that talks with the U.S. will resume anytime soon.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised up to a 37-month high of 52.9 in June, versus a flash estimate of 52.0 and 52.0 in May. June marks the seventh straight month above 50.

Manufacturing ISM rose to 49.0 In June, above expectations of 48.9, versus 48.5 in May. Prices rose to 69.7 from 69.4 in May.

Construction Spending fell 0.3% in May, below expectations of +0.1%, versus a revised -0.2% in April (was -0.4%).

JOLTS Job Openings rose to a six-month high of 7,769k in May, above expectations of 7,300k, versus 7,395k in April.

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 48.6 for July, below expectations of 50.1, versus 49.2 in June. "Concerns about inflation, the impact of tariffs, and an economic slowdown persist. Food prices are the #1 economic concern for Americans," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$45.72 (+1.38%)
5-Day Change: +$30.25 (+0.91%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,320.72 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +40.38

Gold eked out a fifth straight higher monthly close in June, keeping the technical tilt to the upside. The yellow metal has moved back above the midpoint of the range, buoyed by heightened risk aversion and a fresh three-year low in the dollar index.



Today's gains come after corrective action early in the week stalled ahead of support at $3,251.28 (29-May low). The rising 100-day moving average should reach the $3,200 zone this week and help keep the range low at $3,127.12 at bay.

Despite recent consolidative action within the range, global ETFs saw net inflows of 15.8 tonnes last week. It was the fifth straight week of net inflows with North American investors leading the charge.

 

Citigroup reports that U.S. consumers are spending more on luxury jewelry, while eschewing luxury handbags and clothing. “Perhaps the piece of jewelry gives you superior intrinsic value given the precious metals content and superior emotional value and meaning,” Citi analyst Thomas Chauvet told CNBC.

“It is probably sensible to buy a Cartier bracelet now, given they have increased prices by less than 5% since the beginning of 2025, when gold prices have appreciated by over 25%,” he said. Given the longer-term bullish outlook for gold, a piece of gold jewelry seems far more likely to appreciate over time than a handbag.

While gold maintains high cultural status in China, Heraeus suggests that record-high prices are shifting some jewelry demand to platinum. The platinum "jewellery fabrication revival in China [is] attracting strong imports into China from platinum-producing nations," according to this week's Precious Appraisal.

A close back above the 20-day moving average at $3,350.46 would bode well for short-term tests above $3,400. A breach of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13 is needed to clear the way for a run at fresh record highs. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.398 (+1.10%)
5-Day Change: +$0.454 (+1.26%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +21.75

Silver ended June with a 9.4% monthly gain. It was a second straight monthly gain and the best performance since March. The white metal has been underpinned by strong gold, but a much-needed correction in the gold/silver ratio, strong demand, tight supply, and a weak dollar.



Silver probed back above the 20-day moving average today, but met some selling interest up there. At this point, the short-term range is pretty well defined as $37.288/$35.369.

I continue to favor the upside based on everything noted in my first paragraph. A breach of last week's high $36.759 would clear the way for another run at the $37.288/430 zone. A breach of the latter would confirm potential to the $38.750 Fibonacci objective. Beyond that, $40 attracts.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.