Blog posts of '2025' 'September'

Gold firms ahead of the weekend, bolstering confidence in the underlying uptrend

Outside Market Developments: Markets continue to digest the Fed's move this week and its forward guidance. Risk appetite is in neutral territory today, tempered by expectations of heightened trading volumes and volatility associated with today's quadruple witching.

Fed Chairman Powell framed Wednesday's 25 bps rate cut as a "risk management" move, a precautionary adjustment to mitigate potential future downside risks, particularly a further weakening in employment. That raised some doubts about future cuts, given that inflation remains above target.

However, the dot plot suggests that FOMC members anticipate 25-bps cuts at the two remaining meetings this year. Fed funds futures now reflect these expectations, with a 91% probability of a 25-bps cut in October and 78.6% probability of another in December.

The implied Fed funds rate for Jun'26 is 3.2625%. For the end of next year, the implied rate is currently 2.9650%.

The BoJ held rates steady today in a widely anticipated non-move. Governor Ueda emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting risks from a weakening yen and global trade tensions.

President Trump spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi today. The conversation focused on finalizing a TikTok deal, tariffs, and potentially paving the way for an in-person summit. Any progress on these fronts that mitigate U.S.-China tensions would stoke risk appetite.

Looking ahead to next week, we'll kick off with a host of FedSpeak and hopefully some additional clarity on the policy path. Other highlights are the S&P Global PMIs. Durable Orders and PCE, including the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$11.63 (+0.32%)
5-Day Change: +$11.28 (+0.37%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,707.12
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,707.12
Weighted Alpha: +41.71

Gold is trading higher after two days of corrective losses, less than 1% below Wednesday's all-time high. More than 50% of the losses have already been retraced. If today's gains are sustained, the yellow metal will notch its fifth straight higher weekly close.



Expectations of further rate cuts are broadly supportive of the dominant uptrend, but the same is true of risk assets, like stocks. All of the major stock indexes set new record highs following the Fed's easing, sapping gold's haven appeal somewhat.

A firmer dollar in the latter half of the week also poses a bit of a headwind. The dollar index has eked out a new high for the week after falling to more-than three-year lows on Wednesday. The dollar index is down about 10% YTD, which has been a factor in gold's impressive rally this year.

The bull camp should be encouraged by gold's inability to take out support marked by the low for the week set on Monday at $3,626.99. Call $3,628.77/26.99 key short-term support. Secondary support is at $3,604.08/$3,600.00. The 20-day moving average should rise to the $3,600 zone next week.

Previously established upside objectives at $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective) remain valid. The highs from earlier in the week at $3,702.93/$3,707.12 provide an intervening barrier. Further out, I still like $3,800 and $4,000.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.424 (+1.01%)
5-Day Change: +$0.207 (+0.49%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.968
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.968
Weighted Alpha: +44.08

Silver has surged more than 2% today, and most of the recent corrective losses have been retraced. The white metal is on track for a fifth consecutive higher weekly close.



With the Fed's easing campaign back underway after an eight-month pause, and hopes for reduced tensions between the U.S. and China, silver's rally seems to have more room to run. A move to new 14-year highs at $42.969/$43.000 would bode well for the attainment of previously established objectives at $43.352 (Sep'11 high) and $44.167 (Aug'11 high). Above the latter, I have a Fibonacci objective at $44.743

Intraday support at $42.290/281 protects the $41.965/958 level and should keep today's overseas low at $41.659 at bay. Thursday's corrective low $41.142 is deemed key short-term support, which should be bolstered by the 20-day MA early in the week ahead.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

I'm now writing the newsletter three times a week, on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. If market conditions warrant, I will email more frequently. Please follow @ZanerMetals on X for intraday updates. I will be out of the office on Monday, September 22.

Gold remains underpinned ahead of Fed decision

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Fed will announce policy this afternoon, along with its economic forecasts. A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected.

Fed funds futures project 65 bps in easing by year-end, 113 bps through June of 2026, and 146 bps by the end of next year. We'll see later today how the market expectations compare to the dots, providing a critical piece of guidance.

Stephen Miran was confirmed as a governor on Monday, replacing Adriana Kugler, who resigned last month. Miran is perceived to be a dove and is expected to vote in favor of resuming the Fed's easing campaign, which has been on pause this year. I'm curious to see if he dissents in favor of a 50 bps cut.

Lisa Cook remains a governor for this meeting after court rulings blocked her from being fired. However, the White House seems unlikely to abandon its efforts to oust her from the Fed for cause.

The trade continues to worry that the central bank is losing its independence. However, the Fed has never been truly apolitical; both FDR and LBJ exerted influence on monetary policy in the past. President Carter tapped Fed chairman G. William Miller to be his Treasury Secretary. 

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps this morning in a move that was widely expected. "With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks," according to the policy statement.

The BoJ begins its two-day meeting on Thursday. They are expected to hold steady when they announce policy on Friday.

MBA Mortgage Applications surged 29.7% in the week ended 12-Sep, versus +9.2% in the previous week. U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to an 11-month low of 6.39%.

Housing Starts fell 8.5% to a 1.307M pace in August, below expectations of 1.370M, versus a revised 1.429M in July (was 1.428M). Permits contracted 3.7% to 1.312M from 1.362M. Completions jumped 8.4% to 1.608M from 1.483M.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$28.33 (-0.77%)
5-Day Change: +$44.54 (+1.22%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,702.93
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,702.93
Weighted Alpha: +43.35

GOLD

Gold turned mildly corrective as the market awaits today's Fed decision and forward guidance. However, the yellow metal is still higher on the week after setting an all-time high of $3,702.93 on Tuesday.



With a 25 bps cut baked into the cake, the guidance and Powell's presser will carry greater weight than the easing itself. Unless, of course, they surprise with a 50 bps cut or another hold. Persistent worries about Fed independence will continue to underpin gold.

If the dots show a more dovish tilt in the wake of recent signs of labor market weakness, I'd look for gold to continue its rally and set fresh record highs. If a more cautious approach to further easing is signalled, we could see a more sustained pullback. That being said, any corrective retreat is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity within the long-term uptrend.

Today's early U.S. low at $3,660.24 marks first support. Additional downside barriers are noted at $3,626.99 (Monday's low), $3,614.69 (Thursday's low), which protect last week's low at $3,580.13.

On the upside, fresh highs above $3,702.93 would bode well for the attainment of previously established objectives at $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective). Above the latter, $3,800 would attract, and make $4,000 gold increasingly appealing.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.1267 (-2.98%)
5-Day Change: +$0.892 (+2.13%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.968
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.968
Weighted Alpha: +42.46

Silver dropped sharply in overseas trading as investors paired long exposure ahead of today's Fed decision. Much of those intraday losses have already been retraced.



Today's European low at $41.142 now defines good short-term support, ahead of the rising 20-day moving average at $40.533, which corresponds closely with last week's low at $40.547.

Post-Fed, if the white metal is able to sustain the intraday rebound above $42, I'd expect further tests above $43. The following remain valid upside targets: $43.352 (Sep'24 high), $44.167 (Aug'24 high), and $44.743 (Fibonacci). 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week on the bid amid expectations of Fed easing

Outside Market Developments: Markets remain tilted toward risk-on ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. A 25 bps rate cut is widely anticipated, so focus will be on the economic projections and forward guidance.

While inflation remains above target, recent FedSpeak has highlighted downside risks to the labor market as a more pressing concern. The market is pricing in 66 bps of easing before year-end and more than 100 bps through June 2026.

The Bank of Canada will also announce policy on Wednesday. The BoC is expected to trim rates by 25 bps, amid 
cooling inflation, a softening labor market, and tariff-related economic pressures.

Other important economic releases include U.S. retail sales and industrial production. Median expectations for retail sales are +0.3% and -0.1% for IP.

President Trump posted on TruthSocial that trade talks with China are going "VERY WELL!" A framework deal for TikTok to become a U.S.-owned company has reportedly been reached, and Trump indicated that he will speak with President Xi of China on Friday. Trade optimism is providing an additional boost to risk appetite.

Empire State Index fell 20.6 points to a three-month low of -8.7 in September, below expectations of 5.0, versus 11.9 in August. "New orders and shipments fell sharply," according to the New York Fed.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$3.21 (-0.09%)
5-Day Change: +$31.34 (+0.86%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,673.51
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,673.51
Weighted Alpha: +42.39

Gold starts the week on the bid, setting new record highs and moving within striking distance of $3,700. The market remains focused on this week's Fed decision, but the weak Empire State print bolsters the market's already dovish leanings.



The $3,700 target is within striking distance. Above that, the $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective) levels attract. The $3,800 and $4,000 levels are looking increasingly attractive.

Goldman Sachs believes gold could rise dramatically if Fed independence is compromised, driven by flight out of Treasuries and the dollar. "If 1% of the privately owned U.S. treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000," according to a report released last week.

Global ETFs saw net inflows of 14.9 tonnes last week, led by European investors. North American investors took a bit of a breather, only adding 2.8 tonnes after strong inflows totalling 50.6 tonnes in the previous two weeks.

Minor chart support at $3,656.54/54.00 protects today's Asian low at $3,626.99. Thursday's low at $3,614.69 provides a good intervening barrier ahead of last week's low at $3,580.13.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.006 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$1.118 (+2.70%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.460
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.460
Weighted Alpha: +44.41

Silver continues to march higher, setting another round of new 14-year highs. The white metal is up for a fourth straight session, and there have not been consecutive lower daily closes since August 14-15. 



Sights are on the $43 level next. Above that, chart levels at $43.352 (Sep'11 high) and $44.167 (Aug'11 high) are in play. Further out, the record highs in silver around $50 are looking increasingly attractive.

Initial support at $42.042/$42.017 is highlighted by today's early U.S. low and the Asian low. A minor chart point at $41.664 protects Friday's low at $41.405. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold firm near all-time highs as silver surges to 14-year highs above $42

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite remains underpinned as the market looks ahead to Fed easing next week. While consumer inflation for August was slightly warmer than expected, the trade broadly interpreted this week's inflation data as benign, all but assuring a 25 bps cut.

More dovish prospects for the remainder of the year were tempered somewhat by the inflation data. Fed funds futures now imply 67 bps of easing by year-end, and 115 bps through June of next year.

The ECB believes rates are in a “good place,” after they remained on hold for a second straight meeting. With the Fed poised to start easing again, the interest rate differential with Europe will narrow and weigh on the dollar.

Today's economic calendar was light, with just the preliminary September reading on consumer sentiment. Michigan sentiment eased to a four-month low of 55.4, adding to worries about an economic slowdown recently stoked by recent signs of weakness in the labor market.

August retail sales data will be released next Tuesday. The trade is anticipating a gain of 0.3%.

Michicagn Sentiment (prelim) fell 2.8 points to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, below expectations of 58.5, versus 58.2 in August.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$17.32 (+0.48%)
5-Day Change: +$52.89 (+1.47%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,673.51
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,673.51
Weighted Alpha: +44.02

GOLD

Gold is trading higher today, within the range established early in the week, but close to record levels. The yellow metal is poised to notch a fourth straight higher weekly close after setting a fresh all-time high on Tuesday of $3,673.51.



Despite the overbought condition that developed in recent weeks, corrective activity has been limited. Expectations that the Fed will trim interest rates next week, for the first time since December, are helping to underpin gold. There are also reports of strong ETF inflows this week.

Tuesday's high at $3,673.51 stands in front of my next upside objectives at $3,700 (psychological), $3,730.44 (Fibonacci), and $3,743 (measuring objective). Above the latter, $3,800 would attract, and with each new high, $4,000 gold looks increasingly likely.

UBS Global Wealth Management upped its forecast for this year to $3,800 from $3,500 previously. They now expect gold to reach $3,900 by mid-2026. I think we could see $4,000 in Q1'26.

I was interviewed for a MarketWatch article that asks if it's too late to buy into the gold rally. The consensus is that it is not too late. While we will certainly see corrective setbacks in the short to near term, they will likely be viewed as buying opportunities.

Key factors driving the rally are ongoing de-dollarization, central bank buying, persistent inflation risks, worries about the U.S. fiscal situation, and democrat threats to shut down the government at the end of the month. Trade and geopolitical tensions also remain elevated.

Thursday's low at $3,614.69 protects secondary supports at $3,600 and the low for the week at $3,580.13. More substantial support is found at the $3,512.36/$3,500.00 zone, where the low from 4-Sep corresponds with the record high previous to the upside breakout. The 20-day moving average should rise to bolster this area in the week ahead.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.723 (+1.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.928 (+2.26%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.460
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.460
Weighted Alpha: +43.99

Silver pushed decisively above $42 to end a fourth straight bullish week at new 14-year highs. The white metal is garnering support from strength in gold, expectations for lower interest rates, and dollar weakness.



With the important Fibonacci level at $41.610 now in the rearview mirror, considerable credence has been lent to the bullish scenario that calls for an eventual retest of the all-time highs around $50. Focus is now on intervening targets at $42.00, $43.352 (Sep'24 high), $44.167 (Aug'24 high), $44.743 (Fibonacci), and $45.00.

Silver is quite overbought at this point, so beware of corrective setbacks. Such action can be quite volatile at times.

Initial support is noted at $41.470/405. Thursday's low at $40.901 and Wednesday's low at $40.734 protect the low for the week at $40.547. The 20-day moving average is tracking higher but is currently below $40.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.