Blog posts of '2026' 'March'

Gold and silver set for third straight lower weekly closes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S.-Israel joint military campaign against Iran is on the verge of entering its fourth week. U.S. and Israeli forces expanded strikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting naval assets, defense industries, ballistic missile production, internal security forces, and key energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field.

Iran has retaliated with repeated ballistic missile barrages on Israel and attacks on Gulf energy facilities in neighboring countries. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, capable of processing around 730,000 barrels of oil per day, was hit by a multi-wave drone attack.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and both sides increasing attacks on energy infrastructure targets, oil prices remain well above $100. U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island have avoided the key oil export terminal thus far, but one would imagine that it becomes an increasingly tempting target as the war drags on. However, the more infrastructure is destroyed, the longer oil prices will remain elevated, even after the war ends.

American aircraft also reportedly struck Iranian hardened missile sites along the coastline near the Strait of Hormuz using 5,000-pound deep-penetrator munitions. Meanwhile, President Trump has had some success in rallying naval support from NATO members, European nations, Japan, and others to help reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon announced today the accelerated deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, along with two other amphibious warships and approximately 2,500 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. While President Trump reiterated there would be "no boots on the ground" in Iran, bolstering amphibious capabilities in the region provides the options for limited coastal operations to deter Iranian interference with global energy supplies without committing to a full-scale ground invasion.

Seven major central banks announced policy this week. Most held steady, amid data-dependent uncertainty. However, hawkish tilts associated with energy-driven inflation risks were evident.

The RBA was the exception, raising its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% (second consecutive hike). "While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation," according to the policy statement.

The prospects for Fed rate cuts this year have steadily eroded as inflation remains stubbornly high. This week's hotter-than-expected February PPI release (+0.7% MoM and 3.4% YoY headline) heightened concerns further, as the data –largely compiled before the late-February escalation of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran – already captured elevated prices for wholesale goods and services without the full impact of surging energy prices that have since driven oil sharply higher.

Fed funds futures are currently not pricing in any rate cuts in 2026. In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of a chance of easing through H1'27. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the possibility of the next move being an increase "did come up at the meeting, as it did at the last meeting," though he stressed it's not the base case for the "vast majority" of officials.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.02 (-0.17%)
5-Day Change: -$456.40 (-9.09%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +45.99

Gold has traded lower every day this week, down more than 9% from last Friday's close. The yellow metal is poised for its third consecutive lower weekly close, weighed by generally hawkish tilts by a number of major central banks, amid rising concerns about energy prices and inflation.



While safe-haven interest and a modestly weaker dollar provide some underpinning, this week's losses put gold decisively back in the lower half of the $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range that formed earlier in the year. The 100-day moving average was meaningfully penetrated on Thursday, and it looks like today we'll see our first close below the 100-day since late 2024.

Note that in 2024, the 100-day caught up with the market during a consolidative period, and it did not signal an end to the long-term uptrend at all. The foray below the 100-day MA  back then was brief, and the uptrend ultimately resumed.

That's what is happening now, although the range is far broader this time around. Arguably, the range low at $4,406.69 will be vulnerable to a test next week. However, evidence that efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz will be successful could relieve some of the upward pressure on oil, stemming concerns about higher-for-longer rates and providing a headwind for the dollar.

If $4,406.69 does give way, focus would shift initially to the 31-Dec'25 low at $4,275.24. Below the latter, $4,200 would be in play.

A rebound above $4,800 is needed to truly ease pressure on the downside and revive confidence that the corrective low is in place. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,612.81 and Friday's high at $4735.31.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.149 (-1.58%)
5-Day Change: -$11.162 (-13.85%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +99.34

Silver traded below $70 on Friday for a second straight session, weighed by concerns about central bank hawkishness. While the dollar index is lower on the week, it remains up more than 2% in March, near the 100 level. Like gold, the white metal is on track for a third straight weekly loss. 



The magnitude and momentum of this week's losses raise serious doubts that the $64.140 range low will hold. The bull camp's confidence remains rattled from the crazy volatility earlier in the year, and they know that follow-through below $64.140 will be measured in dollars.

Emboldened shorts, on the other hand, are keen to run the stops below the range low. If $64.140 gives way, potential would be to the $60 zone.

A rebound above $70 would take some of the pressure off the downside, but the midpoint of the range (if it holds) at $80.267 is the more important level when it comes to returning some measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Intervening resistances are noted at 74.535 (20-Mar high) and 76.690 (19-Mar high).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold consolidates, awaiting fresh inputs

Outside Market Developments: The ongoing war in the Middle East, now in its 12th day, continues to drive uncertainty and risk aversion. The U.S. reportedly destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to keep the critical oil chokepoint open. Meanwhile, Iran continued to launch missile and drone strikes on Israel, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and multiple commercial ships in or near the Strait.

While oil prices have moderated from Monday's spike high near $120, Brent crude is still trading more than $20 higher than a year ago, despite the IEA announcement of an emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels. This marked the largest coordinated stock release in the IEA's history, unanimously agreed upon by its 32 members to address unprecedented supply challenges caused by the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

One might think that the huge reserve release would quell immediate supply concerns, but some argue that it's suggestive of preparations for a prolonged war. However, President Trump said today that the war will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

Securing and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a primary objective of the U.S. military. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," President Trump posted on TruthSocial earlier in the week.

Today's consumer inflation report was largely benign. Headline CPI rose 0.3% in February, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in January. The annualized rate was steady at 2.4%. Core CPI was +0.2%, in line with expectations, versus +0.3% in January; +2.5% y/y, unchanged from January.

Focus now shifts to Friday's PCE report for January, which includes the Fed's favored measure of inflation. Market expectations for this pre-war period are generally neutral, even as price risks have soared more recently.

The dollar is trading higher today amid those inflation concerns and expectations that the Fed will remain on pause into Q4. The next 25 bps rate hike isn't fully priced until December.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$6.70 (-0.13%)
5-Day Change: +$34.74 (+0.68%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,910.24 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +76.97

Gold is trading modestly lower with price action confined to Tuesday's range. The safe-haven bid associated with the war and broad trade and geopolitical uncertainty is being offset by inflation concerns that have dimmed prospects for Fed easing this year and lifted the dollar.



pent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.

With the $5,000 support zone considered intact and the 20-day moving average continuing to attract buying interest, the technical bias remains bullish. As long as the war is ongoing, the downside is seen as limited.

Evidence that Iran's ability to project power and harass shipping in the Straits has been eliminated (or significantly degraded) would signal that U.S. military action in the Middle East could begin winding down. This would weigh on gold initially, potentially leading to a retest of the $5,000 level.

The midpoint of the range-within-the-range comes in at $4,912.76. This level protects the $4,847.74 low from 17-Feb, which corresponds closely with the 50-day MA. Below that, the $4,800/$4,793.33 would be in play.

However, signs that the war is wrapping up would also push oil prices lower, diminishing inflation risks. Fed easing expectations would rebound, and the dollar would retreat, ultimately providing renewed lift for gold.

A breach of last week's high at $5,418.84 and a minor chart point at $5,450.83 (30-Jan high) would clear the way for a retest of the record high at $5,595.02. Ultimately, the dominant trend is still seen as bullish, and the magnitude of the retracement already seen strongly suggests the corrective low is in at $4,406.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.782 (-2.02%)
5-Day Change: +$1.831 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +165.81

Silver was unable to sustain tests in the Asian session above $90, as volatility persists. The white metal remains confined to last week's range, underpinned by haven interest, but with pared rate cut bets and a firmer dollar providing headwinds.



The market is still reeling from the extreme volatility seen earlier in the year, where the sharp run-up to record levels above $120 significantly disrupted the global supply chain. The subsequent near halving of the price over the course of just six sessions has everyone a little gun-shy.
 
Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains bullish. The Silver Institute projects the market to post its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of around 67 Moz this year, despite a stronger supply picture. An aproximately 1% rise in mine production to 820 Moz will help boost global supply by 1.5% to a decade-high of 1.05 Boz.

As the dust continues to settle, I expect the bulls to be increasingly emboldened as downside risk points within the broad range become more apparent. I continue to watch the rising 20-day MA on a close basis. The significance of the $80 zone was reinforced by Monday's low at $79.767, providing good protection in front of last week's low at $78.092.

A sustained move above $90 is needed to return focus last week's high at $96.393. The $90.980/$91.322 area now marks good intervening resistance.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover from overseas tests of the downside

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The escalating Middle East conflict continues to weigh on risk appetite as the week begins. The U.S. continues to strike Iranian oil facilities, military sites, and cities like Tehran and Qom. In response, Iran has intensified retaliatory missile and drone barrages targeting Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. assets across the region.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was formally appointed as Iran's new Supreme Leader on Sunday. The new leader is widely regarded as an anti-Western hardliner who is even more ideologically rigid and confrontational than his father. He likely already has a target on his back.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz through threats and attacks on shipping, spiking global oil prices above $100–$120 per barrel and broadening the conflict into a multi-front regional energy and military crisis. Beyond the mounting geopolitical risks, soaring energy prices have stoked broader inflation concerns.

Mounting price risks have weighed on rate cut expectations, pushing the likelihood of further easing deeper into H2. Currently, a 25 bps cut isn't fully priced until October.

Prospects for U.S. yields to remain higher for longer and risk-off rotations out of stocks have buoyed the dollar. While the dollar index eked out a new 14-week high in Asian trading, selling interest emerged subsequently, leaving the 100 level protected. Note the potential double top.



Recent U.S. economic data show a slowdown in labor market momentum, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining by 92k in February, well below expectations of +59k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Persistently soft retail sales and the limited government shutdown pose growth risks and another level of uncertainty.

Focus this week will be on U.S. inflation data. Annualized CPI and core CPI inflation are expected to hold steady at 2.4% and 2.5% respective. However, PCE inflation readings are projected to accelerate modestly.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$85.54 (-1.65%)
5-Day Change: -$226.10 (-4.25%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +73.19

Gold began the week on the offer, slipping to test the $5,000 zone in overseas trading, as dollar, inflation, and deleveraging dynamics eclipse ongoing haven interest. Last week, the yellow metal posted its first lower weekly close since the week ended 30-Jan.



Besides the war in the Middle East, there are plenty of other uncertainties that suggest the downside in gold is probably limited. The approach of $5,000 attracted some buying interest, with the 20-day MA continuing to generally hold on a close basis.

North American investors were big sellers of ETFs last week, accounting for 33.8 tonnes of outflows. However, investors in other regions took advantage of last week's initial price drop, adding to holdings. Asian investors bought 10.3 tonnes. Nonetheless, the -20.3 tonne net was the largest weekly outflow since May.

  

Today's overseas low at $5,016.24 reinforces the $5,000.00/$4,997.76 support level. Penetration of the latter would return focus to the rising 50-day MA at $4,881.85 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

If gold can hold above $5,000, further tests above $5,200 become likely. Penetration of $5,206.10 (4-Mar high) would bode well for additional retracement to $5,249.54 (24-Feb high), with potential back to last week's high at $5,418.84.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.321 (-1.56%)
5-Day Change: -$5.685 (-6.36%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +158.49

Silver has recovered from the intraday drop below $80 to trade higher on the day, but inflation concerns, less dovish Fed expectations, and mounting worries about the overvaluation of tech/AI shares are seen as headwinds. The white metal remains quite volatile in the lower half of the broad $121.63/$64.140 range.



AI is extraordinarily energy-intensive, so the surge in energy costs assuredly has the finance teams doing some recalculating. Additionally, the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates could slow planned capex spending, impacting industrial demand for silver, copper, and a host of other commodities.

Today's intraday low at $79.767 lends significance to the $80 zone, providing a good interevening barrier ahead of last week's low at $78.092. Below the latter, the 61.8% retracement level of the rebound off the $64.140 low comes in at $74.461.

Heightened concerns about recession, and the AI theme will weigh more heavily on silver, so I do expect the white metal to underperform. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.  However, the longer-term outlook for silver remains positive due to the persistent supply deficit, now in its sixth straight year.

If silver can mount a convincing move back above $90, a more favorable tone within the range would be evident. That would shift focus to the 3-Mar high at $91.322 and last week's high at $96.393. Obviously, we're still talking very wide ranges, so volatility will remain high. Keep an eye on the closes this week in relation to the 20- and 50-day moving averages for additional technical clues.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold notches its first weekly loss in five, while silver ends the week down nearly 10%

Outside Market Developments: Market uncertainty has intensified ahead of the weekend, driven by a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report, the escalating Middle East conflict, which is pushing oil prices higher, and stoking inflation fears. This has triggered widespread risk aversion among investors, who are shifting away from equities toward safer assets as stocks decline sharply amid concerns about prolonged economic disruption from geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92k jobs in February, far worse than economists' expectations of around +59k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, versus 4.3% in January. It was the first rise in the jobless rate since November.

Negative back-month revisions were significant once again, totalling -69k for January and December. December flipped from +48k to -17k jobs. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from +0.3% in January.

Retail sales fell 0.2% in January, on expectations of -0.3%. Consecutive months of tepid retail sales prints are contributing to ongoing concerns about consumer spending resilience in a high-inflation, uncertain environment. The more recent rise in energy prices sets the stage for further retail sales weakness ahead.

I'd expected heightened calls for Fed easing in light of today's data. While U.S. yields end the week on a bit of a bid, Fed funds futures haven't moved much. The next Fed rate cut isn't fully priced until October.

The US-Israel war against Iran is on the verge of entering its second week with no signs of de-escalation. The U.S. intensified strikes on Iranian targets throughout the week, while Israel struck at Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran continued to launch drone and missile attacks across Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting nearly all tanker traffic through this critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Spreading hostilities involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases, and intercepted Iranian missiles near Turkey are raising fears of a broader multi-front war.

Concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector intensified as Oracle and OpenAI shelved plans to expand their flagship Texas data center due to prolonged financing negotiations and OpenAI's shifting computational needs. Meta is reportedly eyeing the site.

This development, combined with a recent Bank of America survey showing 23% of institutional credit investors viewing an "AI bubble" as their top worry, amid massive projected 2026 capex exceeding $700 bln. This is stoking doubts about whether the sector's lofty valuations can hold, adding pressure to the broader market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$4.05 (-0.08%)
5-Day Change: -$160.91 (-3.05%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,882.53 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +78.62

Gold spent the majority of the week in the lower half of the range that was established on Monday and Tuesday. The inability to sustain those initial tests above $5,400 sets up the yellow metal's first lower weekly close in five weeks.



Nonetheless, there are still some encouraging signs: The $5,000 support zone can be considered intact, and gold was unable to register a close below the 20-day moving average. I'm impressed by gold's resilience in the face of 14-week highs in the dollar index.

The escalating Middle East war has shifted some of the haven flows to the dollar. Additionally, stock market losses are probably putting some deleveraging pressure on gold. While these headwinds should not be dismissed, gold remains a key diversifying asset in times of uncertainty.

The midpoint of this week's range at $5,208.30 is reinforced by Monday's high at $5,206.10. Penetration of this area early in the week ahead would ease some of the pressure on the downside and bode well for another run at $5,400.

On the other hand, a breach of Thursday's low at $5,052.57, or a close below the 20-day MA, would shift focus back to $5,000.00/$4,997.76. Below the latter, a minor level at $4,960.86 protects the rising 50-day MA at $4,866.53 and the more important 17-Feb low at $4,847.74.

Persistent geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties from tariffs, sanctions, and policy risks remain broadly supportive for gold. Additional key drivers are strong central bank purchases (de-dollarization), expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, a weaker dollar, and inflation, all of which bode well for an eventual resumption of the long-term uptrend. In the meantime, volatility is expected to remain high.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.052 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$10.079 (-10.75%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +168.22

Silver is poised for its first lower weekly close in three, weighed by a stronger dollar and revived concerns about tech/Ai sector overvaluation. The white metal has erased the entire 10% gain notched in the previous week, highlighting ongoing volatility.



Today's weak jobs report and weak retail sales print are fostering growth concerns. This may ultimately lead to a more dovish tilt at the Fed, but for now anyway, the central bank remains on hold.

Safe-haven spillover from gold is likely to provide some underpinning, but I do expect silver to underperform in the short to near term. Further tests above 70 in the gold/silver ratio seem likely.

Silver ends the week above the 20-day moving average, but a sustained move back above $90 in the week ahead is needed to call for a move back into the upper half of the broad  $121.630/$64.140 range (above $92.885). That would shift focus to the high from Monday at $96.393. Above that, $100 would be back in play.

For now, further tests below $80 can not be ruled out. Thursday's low at $80.662 provides a modest intervening barrier. More important support is well defined by Thursday's low at $78.092. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.