Blog posts of '2026' 'April'

Gold and silver retreat as Middle East tensions escalate

Outside Market Developments: De-escalation optimism surged late last week after both President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open. While the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remained in place, there were hopes that the combatants were progressing toward at least an extension of the ceasefire that is set to expire tomorrow evening, and perhaps a peace deal.

Those hopes quickly evaporated after Iran subsequently said the Strait would remain closed as long as the blockade continued. Each side is accusing the other of ceasefire violations, and the second round of peace talks in Pakistan is in jeopardy.

President Trump has threatened to initiate attacks on Iranian dual-use infrastructure. He has warned that if Iran does not accept a deal or reopen the Strait, the U.S. will "knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran."

The situation in the Middle East remains highly fluid. Markets will continue to key off the headlines.

The trade is tilted toward risk-off to begin the week. Oil prices are up sharply, reviving concerns about inflation and dimming rate cut hopes. Nonetheless, the dollar remains defensive. Stocks have retreated from last week's highs.

The confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh is widely viewed as pragmatic with a hawkish tilt on inflation, though his views have shown some flexibility in recent years. Fed independence is likely to be a major focus of questioning from senators. While Warsh is widely expected to be confirmed and take the helm of the Fed sometime in May.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$35.74 (-0.74%)
5-Day Change: +$77.31 (+1.63%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +44.13

Gold retreated to a five-session low in early Asian trading on Monday after Middle East tensions increased over the weekend. However, the downside was limited by lingering hopes for an extension of the ceasefire and another round of peace talks. Dollar weakness provides additional underpinning.



The yellow metal notched a third straight higher weekly close last week and four-week highs. More than 50% of the total decline from the January record high at $5,595.02 has now been retraced, returning a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend.

A breach of Friday's high at $4,886.14 – which corresponds closely with the 50-day moving average – would bode well for tests of the $4,915.17 Fibonacci level and $5,000. Another important retracement level comes in at $5,024.04.

Investors continue to move back into gold, as evidenced by the latest ETF data. Net inflows to global ETFs last week totalled 21.7 tonnes, led by North American investors (13.9 tonnes). It was the third consecutive weekly inflow.

I have repeatedly noted this year that gold has been trading like a risk asset, ignoring key risk-off events like war and focusing instead on inflation implications and shifts in Fed policy expectations. The latest Heraeus Precious Appraisal is titled, Gold remains a safe haven despite 2026 price action.

"[This year's] moves do not reflect a change to the fundamental case for gold. Some repositioning and deleveraging during times of cross-asset volatility should be expected. The gold price responding to technical indicators is also an expected symptom of shorter-term speculative market participants. This volatility is likely to last for some time, but, in the long run, gold will retain its fundamental attraction as a way to retain purchasing power."

I agree – gold is likely to resume its long-term uptrend once near-term volatility subsides. The move higher would be supported by familiar core fundamentals that have driven the bull market: strong central bank buying, continued ETF inflows, and broad structural demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks, currency debasement, de-dollarization efforts, and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits.

Subdued upside momentum remains a bit of a concern for the bull camp. Continue to watch the 100- and 20-day moving averages on the downside. Penetration of last week's low at at $4,645.10 would be troubling, putting the $4,601.77 (6-Apr) and $4.555.48 (2-Apr) lows in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.578 (-1.95%)
5-Day Change: +$4.662 (+6.17%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +131.99

Silver is trading lower, but remains confined to Friday's range. While optimism about Middle East de-escalation and a soft dollar are generally supportive, the white metal has struggled above $80.



That being said, the 50- and 100-day moving averages are doing a good job of containing the downside. Volatility remains elevated, and price action will continue to hinge on headlines from the Middle East and Washington.

The fundamental demand picture remains quite bullish, and this year will mark the sixth consecutive year of a structural deficit. However, we continue to see indications that the market is trying to address the imbalance.

According to Heraeus, silver exploration has surged, becoming the "fourth most explored target in 2025," with a 37% increase in economically viable projects. While mined supply grew by 3% last year – led by Central and South America –secondary supply from recycling is also on the rise.

Heraeus also noted Indian demand skyrocketed through the end of its fiscal year on March 31, with imports increasing by 42% year-on-year to over 235 million ounces. This reflects silver's dual role as both a jewelry staple and a critical inflation hedge. While both silver and gold reached record highs this year, the former is increasingly considered a more accessible and cheaper alternative to the latter.

A sustained move above $80 would bode well for a push toward $84.183 (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high). Beyond the latter, $90 and the halfway back point of this year's drop at $91.333 would be in play.

I'll continue to watch the 50- and 100-day moving averages on a close basis. Secondary support is marked by Friday's low at $77.828, penetration of which would shift focus to $75.400.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver jump to multi-week highs on rising de-escalation hopes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: This morning, both President Trump and Iran's Foreign Minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open. While the U.S. naval blockade continues, Trump believes a deal to end the war would come "soon." 

Arguably, Iran's credible threats against shipping in the Strait are its primary source of leverage, so the fact that it's open suggests there has been progress toward a peace deal, or at least an extension of the ceasefire. The U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and  Lebanon further moderates regional risks.

Risk-on sentiment prevails, as oil tumbled to multi-week lows. The tempering of inflation concerns saw prospects for a Fed rate cut later in the year rise.

Major U.S. stock indexes have extended gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have set new all-time highs, while the DJIA has moved back within striking distance of 50,000.

The dollar index slid to seven-week lows driven by revived rate-cut bets and diminished haven interest. A breach of support at 97.50/49 would favor additional retracement toward 96.64/49.



The March retail sales report is the highlight of next week's U.S. data. Median expectations call for a 1.3% m/m rise. With the calendar generally light next week, the market will continue to take its cues from Middle East and Washington headlines.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$3.23 (-0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$113.64 (+2.39%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +46.70

Gold advanced to four-week highs on Friday and appears on track for a third straight higher weekly close. The yellow metal is being buoyed by Middle East de-escalation hopes, rebounding rate cut expectations, and a weaker dollar.



Ongoing progress in resolving the Iran conflict should support gold prices in the week ahead. That said, any major setback would likely cause gold to give back some of its recent gains.

The 50-day moving average at $4,892.81 has capped the upside thus far. Penetration is needed to clear the way for a challenge of the $4,915.17 retracement level. Above that, a move back above $5,000 would be likely, returning considerable confidence to the underlying uptrend.

On the downside, intraday congestion just below $4,800 protects the overseas low at $4,768.46. More substantial supports are marked by Tuesday's low at $4,740.30, and the low for the week from Monday at $4,645.10.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.870 (+1.12%)
5-Day Change: +$6.020 (+7.92%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +144.73

Silver jumped to a five-week high in U.S. trading, driven by broad risk-on sentiment after news broke that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Revived hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, and a weaker dollar added to the bid. The white metal is poised for a fourth consecutive higher weekly close. 



The breach of a short-term Fibonacci objective at $82.887 and the decisive move above the 50-day MA bode well for additional retracement toward $84.183 (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high). Beyond the latter, $90 and the halfway back point of this year's drop at $91.333 would be in play.

First support is the $80 area, which should keep intraday support at $79.617 at bay. Friday's overseas low at $77.828 now provides a good intervening barrier ahead of lows from earlier in the week at $75.400 and $72.792.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver ease intraday after setting four-week highs

Outside Market Developments: Revived hopes for Middle East de-escalation continue to underpin risk appetite. The two-week ceasefire is holding, and expectations are mounting that a second round of peace talks will commence in the days ahead.

U.S. Central Command reports that the naval blockade of Iranian ports is fully in place and actively being enforced. Seaborn trade, primarily oil, accounts for about 90% of the Iranian economy. The blockade will be economically devastating, with the U.S. hoping that it will drive the Iranians to accept its peace terms.

Yesterday's PPI data came in cooler than expected, moderating recent inflation concerns. Headline PPI rose 0.5% in March, below expectations of +1.1%, versus +0.5% in February; 4.0% y/y (highest since Feb'23), up from 3.4% y/y in February. Core PPI was up just 0.1% on expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.3% in February; +3.8% y/y, unchanged from February. 

Given that it's Tax Day, it's worth reiterating the well-known reality that government spending remains far greater than revenue. Through the first six months of FY2026, the U.S. federal government collected $2.48 trillion in revenue and spent $3.65 trillion. While the $1.17 trillion deficit for the period is modestly smaller than the $1.3 trillion deficit from H1 FY2025, it all keeps adding up.

The national debt is growing by $4-5 billion per day and currently stands at about $39 trillion. The $40 trillion threshold will be crossed well before year end, amplifying an already unsustainable trajectory.

Net interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion annually this fiscal year (roughly $88 billion per month!). This is now one of the largest single items in the federal budget, rivaling or surpassing defense and Medicare spending.

Massive government borrowing competes with businesses and households for capital, pushing up interest rates across the economy. This reduces private investment, slows productivity growth, and can lead to lower wages and slower long-term economic growth. It also threatens to further undermine confidence in the dollar as the global reserve currency, perpetuating – and perhaps accelerating – the dedollarization trend.

More than 50% of this year's rebound in the dollar index has been retraced, returning credence to the long-term downtrend. A breach of important Fibonacci support at 97.50 would bode well for an eventual retest of the four-year low set in January at 95.55.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$41.39 (-0.85%)
5-Day Change: +$93.61 (+1.98%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +44.65

Gold reached a four-week high of $4,871.02 in overseas trading, buoyed by de-escalation optimism, tempered inflation worries, and a weaker dollar. While the yellow metal subsequently eased to trade lower on the day, intraday losses are likely being driven by short-term profit-taking.



While short-term market movements will continue to hinge on Middle East headlines, the U.S. fiscal situation noted above provides long-term support. In addition, central bank gold buying is a major component of the broader de-dollarization trend.

Gold is seen as a neutral, sanction-proof asset that doesn’t carry the same geopolitical or counterparty risk as dollar-denominated assets. The shift to gold accelerated after 2022 when Western sanctions froze Russian reserves, prompting many countries to view dollar holdings as vulnerable.

Central banks are on pace to buy 850 tonnes this year, roughly double pre-2022 levels. This year, gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks in value terms. That is partially attributable to ongoing reserve diversification, but strong price appreciation is a significant contributing factor as well.

As long as gold is trading above the 100-day moving average, the technical bias remains tilted to the upside. With more than half of this year's plunge retraced, a measure of confidence has been returned to the underlying uptrend.

The 50-day MA was approached in earlier trading today, but was left intact as profit-taking pressure emerged. A breach of the 50-day would perpetuate the four-week rally, favoring tests above $5,000 for the first time since the mid-March plunge. Gold back above $5000 would go a long way toward reviving the bull camp's optimism.

On the downside, the 100-dau MA at $4,711.20 is protected by Tuesday's low at $4,740.30. The 20-day MA looks to be rotating and should bolster support marked by Monday's low at $4,645.10 as the week progresses. I'd like to see the 20-day climb back above the 100-day – perhaps as early as next week – to encourage additional technical buying.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.768 (-0.97%)
5-Day Change: +$4.786 (+6.46%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +132.19

Silver set a four-week high above $80 in overseas trade. While the 80-handle could not be sustained, the technical picture continues to improve, albeit slowly.



The white metal is being underpinned by the same factors that are supporting gold. However, silver is garnering additional support from an industrial demand component provided by electrification/AI/data center demand, which is outstripping available supply. The silver market is expected to register its sixth straight annual deficit this year. 

Nearly a third of global silver production is a byproduct of copper mining. Copper supply is facing significant disruptions in both Indonesia, where the giant Grasberg mine has cut output by roughly 30-35% due to a major mudflow incident in September and ongoing operational issues, and in Chile, where labor strikes, declining ore grades, and maintenance delays at key mines have reduced production in early 2026. 

Eleven-week highs in copper indicate expectations for ongoing strong industrial demand, and an acknowledgement of persistent supply constraints. With more than 61.8% of this year's retreat now retraced, focus shifts to $6.3331 initially, with potential back to January's record high at $6.6230. The bullish outlook for copper should continue to provide indirect support for the silver market.

While short-term action will continue to be headline-driven and volatile, further tests above $80 seem likely. The next significant upside objective is the $82.887 Fibonacci level (61.8% of the leg down from $96.393 to $61.036). Above that, the $84.183 level (38.2% of the entire decline off the $121.630 all-time high) would be in play.

Continue to eye the 100-day MA on a close basis. Below that, $76.580 (trendline) and $75.400 (14-Apr low) protect the important $73.100/$72.792 zone, where the 20-day moving average corresponds with Monday's low.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week slightly defensive after peace talks break down

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Middle East tensions are back on the rise, after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down over the weekend. Each side is blaming the other for the failure to reach a deal.

While the fragile two-week ceasefire remains in place, the Trump administration moved quickly to ramp up economic pressure on Iran. The U.S. Navy has been ordered to blockade Iranian ports and interdict vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz that have paid the Iranian toll.

Oil prices have rebounded as prospects for a peace deal evaporated, reviving inflation worries and expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Nonetheless, risk appetite is displaying some resilience, amid hopes that the blockade will force the Iranians back to the bargaining table.

Tuesday's PPI report is likely to reinforce inflation concerns ignited by last week's hot CPI print. Consensus for PPI is +1.2% m/m and 4.6% y/y, versus +0.7% m/m and 3.4% y/y in February. 

War headlines and inflation developments will dominate market attention this week. Q1 2026 earnings season also kicks off, led by major bank results and key reports from the technology and semiconductor sectors. Investors will closely watch how resilient these sectors are in the face of the recent oil shock. Volatility is expected to remain elevated all week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$26.45 (-0.56%)
5-Day Change: +$76.94 (+1.65%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +41.13

Gold retreated into the range after the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed after just 21 hours. However, persistent hopes for a speedy diplomatic resolution and a soft dollar provide some underpinning.



The 20-day moving average successfully contained overseas losses, and combined with the subsequent rebound back above the 100-day, there's some cause for technical optimism. I'd like to see a close above the 100-day today, followed by renewed tests above $4,800.

A breach of last week's high at $4,853.18 would clear the way for a challenge of the $4,900.07/$4,915.17 zone, where the 50-day MA closely aligns with an important retracement level. Beyond the latter, the $5,000 area would be back in play.

Investors expressed optimism last week with a second straight week of net inflows into gold ETFs. All regions were net buyers.

Monday's overseas low at $4,645.10 and the 20-day MA at $4,642.21 mark initial supports. Penetration of these levels would highlight the $4,600 zone, with potential to the 2-Apr low at $4,555.08.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.517 (-2.00%)
5-Day Change: +$1.093 (+1.50%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +112.29

Silver begins the week on the back foot after rising in four of five sessions last week. While the failure of peace negotiations provides a headwind, the market is holding out hope that a deal will be reached in fairly short order.



A weaker dollar and optimism about tech sector earnings provide support. Silver is a critical industrial metal used heavily in semiconductors, electronic components, data center infrastructure, and high-efficiency solar panels. As investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence grows, demand for powerful servers, advanced chips, and massive new data centers is surging.

At the same time, the enormous energy needs of AI are accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar, for which silver is an essential material in photovoltaic cells. This dual demand (electronics + green energy) creates a strong fundamental tailwind for silver, even in uncertain macroeconomic environments.

The white metal needs to regain the 100-day moving average on a closing basis to return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Such a move would bode well for a rebound above $80. Fibonacci resistance at $82.887 is an important trigger for putting $100 back in play.

Monday's overseas low at $72.792 corresponded closely with the 20-day MA at $72.883. Secondary support is well defined by last week's low at $69.859.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver are poised for higher weekly closes on the hope for a peace deal

Outside Market Developments: Risk sentiment remains elevated despite the ongoing fragility of the ceasefire that was announced on Wednesday. Each side has accused the other of violations, and perhaps most importantly, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal. Nonetheless, the trade is clinging to hope that scheduled peace talks in Pakistan this weekend will bear fruit.

Consumer inflation accelerated in March, driven largely by the conflict in Iran and the resulting spike in energy prices. The 21.2% surge in gasoline prices drove headline CPI up 0.9% m/m, the largest monthly gain in almost four years. The annualized rate of inflation rose to 3.3% – nearly a two-year high – versus 2.4% in February. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was more moderate, increasing 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, below consensus of +2.7%.

Markets are largely shrugging off the hot inflation reading, focusing instead on the peace talks and the attendant expectation that energy prices will moderate in the weeks ahead. However, today's CPI data, combined with sticky PCE inflation and the downward revision to Q4'25 GDP released earlier this week, reinforces concerns about stagflation risks. This should keep the Fed tilted toward a 'higher-for-longer' policy stance for the time being and help underpin the dollar.

Markets will remain sensitive in the week ahead to headlines out of the Middle East and Islamabad. March PPI, import/export prices, along with scheduled FedSpeak, will provide additional clarity on inflation and the Fed policy outlook.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.10 (-0.17%)
5-Day Change: +$101.25 (+2.17%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +46.18

Gold is trading little changed on the day, confined to yesterday's range amid uncertainty about the ceasefire and prospects for a peace deal. Nonetheless, the yellow metal appears poised for a second straight higher weekly close.



Midweek gains above $4,800, triggered by the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, could not be sustained as skepticism quickly surfaced. For now, the trade seems inclined to wait and see how peace talks progress this weekend.

Increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is needed to perpetuate the retreat in oil prices from the March highs, tempering inflation risks and hawkish Fed bets. That would likely prompt gold to test back above $4,800.

A breach of the 8-Apr high at $4,853.18 would clear the way for a challenge of the 50-day MA at $4,898.95 and the $4,915.17 Fibonacci level. Penetration of the latter would bode well for an upside extension above $5,000. Trades above $5,000 would be encouraging to the longer-term bullish outlook.

On the other hand, if shipping through the Strait remains limited, or a peace deal appears elusive, gold would likely start the week ahead on its back foot. A retreat below $4,700.46/$4,699.22 would leave this week's lows at $4.608.33/$4.601.77 vulnerable to a retest.

Concerns about further central bank gold sales continue to pose a headwind. Such worries would likely abate with a peace deal.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.309 (+0.41%)
5-Day Change: +$3.402 (+4.66%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.039 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +124.71

Silver is consolidating just below the three-week high set on Wednesday, underpinned by hopes that the ceasefire will hold and a peace deal will be reached. The white metal is on track for a third straight higher weekly close.



Like most markets, the next move in silver hangs on Middle East and peace-talk headlines. Movement toward peace would have the market eagerly anticipating a full reopening of the Strait, energy price relief, and perhaps even a tempering of the Fed's current hawkish tilt.

We've noted further evidence of an investor rotation from AI software companies to hardware and infrastructure shares. That bodes well for heightened industrial demand for silver, providing a tailwind.

Closes above the 20-day moving average this week are encouraging, and a short-term close above the rising 100-day MA would provide an additional technical boost, favoring a move back above $80.

However, at this point, the chart pattern that has developed keeps me cautious. A breach of initial support at $72.905 would favor a return to the $70 zone. Below the latter, the 50% retracement level of the rally at $67.009 would attract.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted. 

Gold and silver gain on Iran ceasefire

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The situation in Iran swung dramatically over the past 24 hours from threats of "annihilation" to a two-week ceasefire. The deal is conditional on Iran allowing the immediate and complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. Not surprisingly, both sides are claiming victory.

The trade swung to risk-on amid optimism that the ceasefire would lead to a longer-term peace agreement. Negotiations are expected to begin as soon as April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Oil plunged, with Brent Crude gapping lower to four-week lows well below $100. Stocks surged, retracing approximately half of the war-inspired losses. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated.

The dollar index dropped to a four-week low, testing support below 99, where the 200-, 100-, and 50-day moving averages have converged. This zone is currently holding. A short-term close below 98.49 is needed to confirm potential to the halfway back point of the recent rally at 98.08.



Today's war relief and tempered inflation worries will overshadow this afternoon's release of the minutes from the March FOMC meeting. Back in March, the war was relatively new, spurring heightened uncertainty, and that's what will be reflected in the minutes.

Fed funds futures are discounting the slight prospects for a rate hike that emerged amid the surge in energy prices. Scope for a rate cut has improved modestly, but the Fed still looks to be on hold for the remainder of the year.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$76.13 (+1.62%)
5-Day Change: -$4.06 (-0.09%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,972.73 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +45.20

Gold reached a three-week high of $4,853.18 in overseas trading, spurred by enthusiasm over the ceasefire deal, expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, lower energy prices, and a weaker dollar. The yellow metal has traded more like a risk asset throughout the conflict, with the trade giving greater weight to Fed expectations.



Gold has traded back above the midpoints of the primary range and the range-within-the-range. The move back above the 100- and 20-day moving averages provides further encouragement to the bull camp.

The 50-day MA corresponds closely with the $4,915.17 Fibonacci level, and penetration would bode well for a move back above $5000. An eventual breach of the 61.8% retracement level of the entire correction at $5,024.04 would return considerable credence to the long-term uptrend.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, and there are certainly risks that progress toward a peace deal could quickly unravel. If that were to happen, today's market movements would likely reverse. Volatility remains elevated, so expect swings on any fresh headlines from the region.

While the trade was cautiously rebuilding long positions earlier today, volatIlity will continue to make them quick to take profits. If gold is unable to sustain gains above $4,700, recent lows around $4,600 and $4,555.08 (2-Apr) would be vulnerable to retests.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.815 (+5.23%)
5-Day Change: +$0.355 (+0.47%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $29.460 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +120.92

Silver extended to a three-week high of $76.370, spurred by broad-based risk-on sentiment and a weaker dollar. The white metal tested briefly above the 100-day moving average and appears poised for its first close above the 20-day MA in nearly a month.



A confirmed close above the 20-day today would bode well for further tests above the 100-day, with potential back to the $80 zone. The declining 50-day MA comes in at $80.021. Above that, the $82.887 Fibonacci level would be in play.

Spiking energy prices caused by the war made the economics of AI expansion more fragile, prompting some analysts to warn about reduced investment and delayed or cancelled projects. While the ceasefire relief is easing that pressure, some uncertainty is likely to persist, at least until a peace deal is in place and oil prices return to pre-war levels below $70.

Silver is currently trading higher for a third consecutive week, but significant upside follow-through is needed to bolster the confidence of the bull camp. Right now, the price action since the $61.036 low still has the look of a continuation pattern.

Like gold, expect volatility to remain high with traders reluctant to hold positions until clear low-risk opportunities present. If silver is unable to maintain gains above $70, further attacks on the downside would have to be considered. A drop back below $70 would suggest potential to the 50% retracement level of the rally at $67.009.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rise for a fourth straight session on de-escalation hopes

Outside Market Developments: Optimism about the potential wind-down of U.S. military operations in the Middle East has stoked risk appetite, knocking oil off its recent war-driven highs. President Trump has signaled that the U.S. offensive could end within 2-3 weeks, and he will address the nation this evening.

De-escalation prospects in the Middle East eased energy supply concerns and will erode stagflation fears. Treasury yields retreated modestly, while the U.S. dollar came under pressure for a second straight session. Odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year edged higher, though the shift was not meaningful.

U.S. stocks ended March with significant losses; the S&P 500 declined about 5.1%, the DJIA fell 5.4%, and the Nasdaq dropping 4.8%, as the Middle East conflict drove surging oil prices, heightened volatility, and significant deleveraging. Despite the rebound on the final day of the month, Q1'26 marked the worst start to a year for equities since 2022.

Today's U.S. data added to the risk-on theme. The ADP report revealed that U.S. private employers added 62k jobs in March, beating expectations of 41k and extending a modest hiring pace, with job gains driven mainly by small employers while pay growth held steady. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.6% in February on expectations of +0.5%, versus -0.1% in January. Retail sales accelerated to a +3.7% annualized pace, from 3.2% in January.

The ADP print implies that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will likely show modest private-sector hiring around or above consensus (~50k-60k). That would temper the concerns of a sharp labor market slowdown that arose after February's -92k print. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, while average hourly earning rising 0.3%.

With the long holiday weekend ahead, position squaring could lead to volatility into Thursday's close. Most major markets will be closed on Good Friday, and some, including London, will be closed on Easter Monday as well.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$64.43 (+1.38%)
5-Day Change: +$249.24 (+5.53%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +52.52

Gold is trading higher for a fourth consecutive day, buoyed by hopes that the Iran war and the attendant oil shock are winding down. The yellow metal suffered its worst monthly performance in over 17 years in March, dropping more than 11% amid fading rate-cut hopes, dollar strength, and deleveraging pressures. Despite the slide, gold still managed to notch a nearly 8% gain in Q1, thanks to strong gains early in the year. 



One never quite knows what President Trump might say when he addresses the nation, but the supposition is that he will lay out his plan for concluding U.S. military action against Iran. That could perpetuate the rally into the final session of the week on Thursday. On the other hand, something unexpected from the President could send markets reeling once again.

For now, falling oil prices are easing inflation concerns, driving a retreat in Treasury yields and weighing on the dollar – both of which are providing fresh support to gold. A constructive message from President Trump on de-escalation could prompt markets to begin pricing in a Fed rate cut later this year, though expectations are likely to remain anchored toward the back half of 2026.

Tuesday's close back above the 100-day moving average provided some technical encouragement, leading to today's upside follow-through. The falling 20-day moving average is just above $4,800 and has come within striking distance. A close above the 20-day would shift focus to the halfway-back point of the entire decline from January's record high at $5,595.02. A short-term move into the upper half of this year's broad range would bode well for a return to the $5,000 zone.

On the downside, today's Asian low at $4,662.65 should help keep the market above the 100-day $4,648.06. If the 100-day can't be sustained on a close basis, lows from earlier in the week at $4,484.51 and $4,420.80 would be in play.

I expect position squaring ahead of Thursday's close, with traders reluctant to hold positions into the long weekend, especially with NFP out on Friday. We may start higher tomorrow, but look for prices to ease into the close. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.245(-0.33%)
5-Day Change: +$4.083 (+5.73%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +135.96

Silver is also up for a fourth session in a row, but negligibly so today. While underpinned by stronger gold and a weaker dollar. Lingering growth risks appear to be providing some headwind for the predominantly industrial metal.



The white metal has not been able to punch convincingly back above its 100-day MA, and the declining 20-day is moving in to bolster resistance, leaving the upside limited for now. I'd really like to see a rebound above $80 to set a more favorable tone.

An NFP beat on Friday could lay the groundwork for such a move. An 80-handle would bode well for further retracement toward the $84.183 Fibonacci level.

Failure to register a close above the 100-day could hasten the bulls back to the sidelines ahead of the holiday weekend. I suspect they're headed there anyway, and that could also explain silver's lag today. The risk associated with a long weekend and a jobs report when markets are closed is just too great in light of the recent extreme volatility.

Wednesday's Asian low at $73.792 marks first support and protects the trendline off last week's low that comes in around $70.460. A breach of the trendline would favor a retreat below $70 and a retest of Monday's low at $67.742.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.