Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Tuesday, April 8, 20254/8/2025
Gold upticks above $3,000 and silver tests above $30 are met with selling interest
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: China is refusing to kowtow to what it calls U.S. "blackmail" on trade, vowing to "fight to the end." This comes in the wake of President Trump's threat to impose additional 50% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China raising its levies on U.S. goods.
Such rhetoric and actions are indicative of an intensifying trade war that is stoking worries about inflation and a global economic slowdown.
China also ramped up export controls on rare earths, threatening the technology supply chain. China accounts for roughly 60% of global rare earths production, essential components in data center storage systems, networking equipment, and semiconductors.
The EU Commission has proposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal for industrial goods. That there are ongoing negotiations amid the retaliatory threats is somewhat encouraging.
Trump clearly telegraphed his intentions to deploy tariffs as a means to reduce the trade deficit and to be used as a cudgel in advancing a number of his administration's priorities. Yet markets seemed to have been caught completely off guard.
Uncertainty and panic prevailed over the previous three sessions. While U.S. shares are recovering today, investor confidence has been shattered, so this may just be the eye of the hurricane.
Fed funds futures continue to price in at least three 25-bps rate cuts this year. The first is likely to come in June or July, but the Fed is in a bit of a bind as tariffs have boosted both price and growth risks.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.3 points to a five-month low of 97.4 in March, below expectations of 101.3, versus 100.7 in February. "The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months," said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. "Small business owners have scaled back expectations of sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them," he added.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$25.38 (+0.85%)
5-Day Change: -$104.94 (-3.37%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +30.21
Gold was unable to sustain earlier tests above $3,000, and a more defensive intraday tone has emerged. While deleveraging pressure ebbed with stocks rebound, risk appetite is likely to remain subdued amid ongoing uncertainty. The market is worried there are more shoes to drop.
A rebound above the halfway back point of the decline from last week's record high is needed to return confidence to the underlying uptrend. That retracement level comes in at $3,063.27. Intervening barriers are noted at $3,017.52 (today's earlier high), $3,042.33 (Monday's U.S. high), and $3,049.78 (Monday's London high).
The greenback remains generally weak, with the dollar index having fallen to a six-month low last week. Ongoing concerns about a recession and the attendant rise in rate cut expectations should limit the upside in the dollar and help underpin gold.
On the downside, today's Asian low at $2,979.73 protects yesterday's four-week low at $2,961.83. Below the latter, watch the 50-day moving average at $2,947.66 and the $2,926.55 Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement of the rally from $2,541.25 to $3,164.72).
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.124 (+0.41%)
5-Day Change: -$3.388 (-10.06%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.049 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +4.53
Silver is consolidating within yesterday's broad range, but the downside for the industrial metal remains vulnerable in the face of mounting fears of a full-blown trade war, demand destruction, and recession. While the white metal is still higher on the week, that condition is tenuous at best.
Tests back above $30 have been lackluster thus far, suggesting the rout may not be over. The plunge to seven-month lows below $28.783 on Monday and negation of all the important moving averages since Thursday are pretty bearish technical harbingers.
The inability of gold to sustain gains above $3,000 further emboldens the bear camp. Fresh intraday lows shift attention to the halfway back point of yesterday's rebound at $29.653. A breach of this level would suggest further tests below $29 are in the offing. Friday's low at $29.341 provides a minor intervening barrier.
Today's earlier high at $30.486 now protects yesterday's high at $30.74. Above that, the 100-day MA at $31.439 must be cleared (ideally on a close basis) to suggest potential for a rebound above $32.00.
It's hard to look at that chart and not be bearish. Sometimes that's the time to buy. While I'm inclined to be cautious in light of the recent volatility, I give the edge to the bear camp.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
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