Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Good morning. The precious metals are lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, S&P Flash PMIs, New Home Sales.

Gold retreats as Japan trade deal boosts risk appetite

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The White House has announced a trade agreement with Japan that lowers reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 15%. In exchange, Japanese markets will be opened to U.S. "Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things," according to a TruthSocial post from President Trump.

Japan will also invest $550 bln in the U.S. to support Japanese businesses, and “create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs." The Japan deal overshadows trade deals inked with Indonesia and the Philippines.

Markets are celebrating the news with major U.S. indexes trading at or near record highs amid heightened risk appetite. Several key trade deals still need to be made, and time is growing short if you believe August 1 is a hard deadline.

While the market is displaying some level of optimism, at least the EU is preparing for failure. Meanwhile, talks with South Korea, India, Canada, and Mexico, among others, appear to have stalled. 

Copper surged to fresh record highs near $6 after Trump reiterated that 50% tariffs will take effect on August 1 and would include refined products. Bloomberg reports that a number of copper-laden ships are racing to U.S. ports to beat the deadline.

The Fed is expected to remain on hold when the FOMC meets next week. However, the prospect of dovish dissenters would stoke easing expectations for subsequent meetings and keep the dollar on the defensive.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 0.8% in the 18-Jul week, versus -10.0% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 6.84% from 6.82% in the previous week.

Existing Home Sales fell 2.7% to a nine-month low pace of 3.930M in June, below expectations of 4.000M, versus a revised 4.040M in May (was 4.030). Near-record prices and high mortgage rates continue to weigh.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.39 (-0.24%)
5-Day Change: +$74.53 (+2.23%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +42.68

Gold has retreated from the five-week high set in Asia $3,435.01, as news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan sapped safe-haven interest. However, dollar weakness continues to provide some underpinning.



While resistance marked by the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13 remains untested, the technical bias remains to the upside. There is still plenty of trade uncertainty lingering as the August 1 deadline approaches, which should continue to provide support.

Prospects for dovish dissenters at next week's FOMC meeting are also supportive of gold, due to the bearish dollar implications. Fed funds futures are currently implying 45 bps in cuts by year-end.

A breach of $3,449.13 is needed to clear the way for a retest of $3,500. New record highs above the latter would bolster confidence in previously established objectives at $3,596.20 (Fibonacci) and $4,000.00 (psychological).

The retreat below $3,400 is somewhat troubling, but yesterday's low at $3,383.95 remains protected thus far. If this level gives way, an outside day would be confirmed, shifting focus to Monday's low at $3,346.01, which is bolstered by the 20- and 50-day moving averages.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.063 (+0.16%)
5-Day Change: +$1.528 (+4.03%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.445
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.445
Weighted Alpha: +45.45

Silver extended to a new 14-year high of $39.517, within 50¢ of the $40 objective. The white metal is being buoyed by fresh record highs in copper, firm gold, and a weaker dollar.



A short-term move above $40 would highlight the $41.610 Fibonacci objective.  Above that, the scenario that calls for an eventual challenge of all-time highs around $50 would gain considerable credence.

While silver has eased from the highs, setbacks are likely to attract buying interest. The $39.156/000 zone marks first support. Yesterday's low at $38.736 stands in front of more formidable support at $38.092/000 and last week's low at $37.557. The 20-day moving average bolsters the latter.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold firms to 5-week highs, bolstered by risk aversion, lower yields, and a retreat in the dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market sentiment has tilted toward risk-off as some companies are acknowledging that tariffs negatively impacted Q2 earnings. For example, GM said tariffs "sapped $1.1 billion from the results." While Q2 earnings have been generally favorable thus far, there are worries that the tariff impact will be amplified in Q3.

The Trump Administration remains optimistic that trade deals will be cut before steep tariffs kick in next month.  "The next two weeks are going to be weeks for the record books. President Trump is going to deliver for the American people," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Face the Nation on Sunday.

The EU is said to be preparing retaliatory measures ahead of the looming trade deal deadline. President Trump has already said that retaliation would be met by in-kind tariff increases. The block is also reportedly considering deploying “anti-coercion” measures, which would be a substantial escalation toward a trade war.

Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve ratcheted higher after a Trump ally in Congress accused Fed Chair Powell of lying to Congress about the Eccles Building renovation and requested a criminal referral from the Justice Department. Treasury Secretary Bessent subsequently called for an investigation into the “entire Federal Reserve Institution,” but doesn't see a reason for Powell to "step down right now."

Uncertainty about the implications of such investigations is weighing on the dollar. The dollar index has been under pressure since setting a three-week high on Thursday. Nearly 61.8% of the recent corrective gains have been retraced, and the move back below the 20-day MA returns credence to the dominant downtrend.

Policy expectations, however, remain fairly static. Fed funds futures currently imply 46 bps in cuts by year-end with the first 25 bps cut likely to occur in October.

The FOMC is widely expected to hold steady when they announce policy next week. Fed Governor Waller has pledged to dissent when that happens. The trade is hoping to get some clarity on when the easing campaign will resume, but I suspect the policy statement will be 

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed that a new round of peace talks with Russia will resume in Istanbul on Wednesday. Moscow isn't hopeful about progress toward a peace deal and launched fresh drone attacks against Ukraine overnight.

Richmond Fed Index fell 12 points to a 10-week low of -20 in July, below expectations of -3, versus a revised -8 in June (was -7). 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$10.34 (-0.30%)
5-Day Change: +$71.99 (+2.16%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.28

Gold has moved decisively back above $3,400, boosted by heightened haven demand, lower yields, and a weaker dollar. The yellow metal has reached five-week highs and pressured resistance marked by the $3,449.13 high (16-Jun).

 

The move constitutes an upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation. A breach of $3,449.13 would bode well for a retest of the record high around $3,500. A measuring objective off the breakout suggests potential to $3,778.44. Existing upside targets are at $3,596.20 and $4,000.00.

The World Gold Council read recent price action similarly. They concluded that the "range continues to look mature, and we may be close to this being resolved higher for the completion of a “triangle” continuation pattern."  The WGC went on to note that "tariff impacts are slowly appearing in inflation data and investors are starting to price this in further down the curve."

Bucking my expectations, global ETFs saw net inflows of 6.6 tonnes last week. European investors accounted for most of that, but even North American investors added 1.3 tonnes, despite the consolidative market.

The COT report showed net speculative long positions in gold futures rose 10.1k contracts to a 15-week high of 213.1k. It was the third consecutive weekly rise in net spec long positioning.

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

The $3,400 zone now marks first support and protects today's overseas low at $3,383.95. More important support is defined by Monday's low at $3,346.01, which is bolstered by the 20- and 50-day moving averages.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.089 (-0.23%)
5-Day Change: +$1.237 (+3.28%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.119
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.119
Weighted Alpha: +42.92

Silver is extending its rally, driven by rising trade tensions, higher copper, lower yields, and a retreat in the dollar. The white metal has exceeded the 14-Jul high at $39.119, establishing fresh 14-year highs.



The latest round of gains bodes well for attainment of the $40 objective. Beyond that, The Fibonacci objective at $41.610 would be in play.

Former highs at $39.119/049 protect today's overseas low at $38.736. Better support at $38.092/000 should keep last week's low at $37.557 at bay. The 20-day moving average should rise to bolster the latter by the end of this week.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold spent the week within the range, silver firms, but still appears poised for a lower weekly close

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market attention this week continued to be focused on tariff developments and geopolitical risks. However, economic and earnings data reveal a resilient U.S. economy with inflation in check, keeping market sentiment tilted toward risk-on.

On the heels of yesterday's retail sales beat for June, the preliminary read on consumer sentiment in July reached a five-month high of 61.8. Five-year inflation expectations hit a five-month low of 3.6% as tariff worries continue to moderate.

Estimates for Q2 GDP are mostly above 2%. The Atlanta Fed's GDP model currently projects 2.4%. However, some economists believe the massive Q1 net export subtraction associated with tariff front-running was reversed out in Q2, resulting in growth north of 4%. The BEA announces the Q2 advance report on July 30.

Fed Governor Waller continues to advocate for a July rate cut, although the market puts the prospect at just 4.7%. Waller was appointed by President Trump late in Trump's first term and is in the mix as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell as chair.

The market still sees October's FOMC meeting as the most likely timing for resumption of Fed easing. However, a 4% advance Q2 GDP print in a couple of weeks could certainly take September and October rate cuts off the table ... perhaps December too.

Housing Starts rose 0.058M to a 1.321M pace in June, above expectations of 1.300M, versus a revised 1.263M in May (was 1.256M). Permits rose to 1.397M from 1.394M. Completions fell to 1.314M from 1.540M.

Michigan Sentiment (Prelim) rose 1.1 points to a five-month high of 61.8 in July, above expectations of 61.5, versus 60.7 in June.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$12.00 (+0.36%)
5-Day Change: +$2.12 (+0.06%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +39.15

Gold heads into the weekend on an upbeat note, with help from a setback in the dollar. However, the yellow metal remains well contained within the narrowing range, and a close below $3,355.86 would notch the first lower weekly close in three.



The yellow metal is above the $3,311.51 midpoint of the broader range, and near the midpoint of the range-within-the-range at $3,352.57. Probes below the 20- and 50-day moving averages this week have attracted buying interest, preventing a retreat below $3,300.

More important supports are well defined at $3,284.61 (9-Jul low) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun low). The 100-day MA is at $3,231.98 and should rise to bolster the latter next week. The rising 20-week MA is at $3,238.19 and moving into this area, further fortifying the downside.

I still see risk for another run at the downside. I noted earlier in the week that gold ETF inflows slowed significantly last week as prices stagnated. As that stagnation continues, there may have been outflows this week as investors redeployed capital to more productive assets.

While gold has consolidated since mid-May, it's only about 5% off the record high set in April. Gold is less than 3% off its record high against the Indian rupee, which continues to weigh on jewelry demand.

Indian gold imports fell 40% YoY in June to a more than two-year low of 21 tonnes. India's gold imports in the first half of 2025 were also down 30% year-on-year at 204.1 tonnes, the lowest since H1'20, during the pandemic.

A breach of Monday's high at $3,374.11 is needed to mitigate the downside risk and clear the way for renewed tests above $3,400. Such a move would favor a retest of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14. Above that, the record high at $3,500 would be back in play.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.193 (+0.51%)
5-Day Change: -$0.117 (-0.30%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.119
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.119
Weighted Alpha: +35.99

Silver is trading higher for a third straight session but still appears on track for its first lower weekly close in three after Monday's rejection from above $39. Signs this week of a robust economy have sparked a bid in the industrial metals, with copper reaching a new high for the week. A softer dollar is helping the cause.



While Indian gold imports have fallen significantly due to record-high prices, Indian investors have taken a shine to silver. Imports nearly doubled to 197 tonnes in June from 109 tonnes a year ago. While that's off from the 544 tonnes imported in May, the overall trend appears positive.

Just over 50% of the decline from Monday's 14-year high at $39.119 has been retraced, bolstering confidence in the bullish scenario that calls for additional gains to $40 and $41.610. An eventual penetration of the latter would put the all-time highs around $50 in play.

On the downside, $38.092/000 marks first support. Wednesday's low at $37.557 is the more important level to watch in the week ahead. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold eases within the range amid heightened risk appetite and a firmer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: According to the New York Times, President Trump has drafted a letter to sack Fed Chairman Powell. The Fed Chair can only be terminated for cause, but recent questions about the $2.5 billion renovation of the Eccles Building could be laying the groundwork.

Trump acknowledged having discussions about replacing Powell, but deemed firing him as highly unlikely. “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud,” he said.

The market doesn't seem concerned at this point. Fed funds futures continue to price just under 50 bps in cuts by year-end, although today's generally favorable U.S. economic data tempered dovish expectations somewhat. 

Trump has said he believes the Fed funds rate is 300 bps too high. Presumably, Trump would pick a dove if he were to replace Powell.

The FOMC is pretty centrist at this point, with perhaps a slight hawkish tilt. A Trump-appointed dovish chair would still have to sway a majority of the committee.

Retail sales, Philly Fed Index, and initial jobless claims all beat expectations today. U.S. economic strength and a resilient labor market are stoking risk-on sentiment.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s security council, said Moscow should consider preemptive strikes against countries supporting Ukraine. "We need to act accordingly. To respond in full. And if necessary, launch preemptive strikes," he said. 

Retail Sales rebounded 0.6% in June, above expectations of +0.1%, versus -0.9% in May. Ex-auto rose 0.5% on expectations of +0.3%, versus a revised -0.2% in May (was -0.3%).

Philadelphia Fed Index surged 19.9 points to a five-month high of 15.9 in July, well above expectations of -0.3, versus -4.0 in June. The employment component jumped 20.1 points to 10.3 from -9.8. Prices paid rose to 58.8 from 41.4, while prices received rose to 34.8 from 29.5.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 7k to a 13-week low of 221k in the week ended 12-Jul, below expectations of 230k, versus a revised 228k in the previous week (was 227k). Continuing claims edged up to 1,956k in the 5-Jul week, versus 1,954k in the previous week.

Import Price Index rose 0.1% in June, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.4% in May (was unch). Ex-petro unch.

Export Price Index rose 0.5% in June on expectations of +0.1%, versus a revised -0.6% in May (was -0.9%).

Business Inventories were unch in May, in line with expectations, versus unch in April.

NAHB Housing Market Index ticked up to 33 in July, in line with expectations, versus 32 in June. “The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provided a number of important wins for households, home builders and small businesses,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$21.54 (-0.64%)
5-Day Change: -$1.38 (-0.04%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,354.48 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +37.09

Gold retreated to approach the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51, as encouraging economic data stoked risk appetite and the dollar rebounded from Wednesday's losses to set fresh three-week highs.



Gold got a bit of an intraday boost when a key member of Russia's security council said Moscow should consider preemptive strikes against the West for their support of Ukraine. That would be a major escalation of the conflict and could draw NATO into the war.

Gold remains confined to its range, just above the midpoint of the range that has dominated since May, and just below the midpoint of the secondary range from June. Today's inability to sustain losses below the 20- and 50-day moving averages keeps a slight technical tilt to the upside.

Fresh highs for the week above $3,374.11 are needed to clear the way for a move back above $3,400. Penetration of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 would put the record high from April at $3,500 back in play.

If today's intraday rebound fades and gold closes below the 20- ($3,332.24) and 50-day ($3,324.27) MAs, it would suggest potential to $3,300, and possibly as low as $3,284.61 (9-Jul low) or $3,256.02 (30-Jun low). The $3,311.73/51 level provides intervening support.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.145 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: +$0.860 (+2.32%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.119
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.119
Weighted Alpha: +33.81

Silver continues to consolidate recent gains to 14-year highs above $39. The white metal is trading higher today, buoyed by good U.S. economic data and heightened risk appetite. A firm dollar poses a bit of a headwind.



The retreat from Monday's high at $39.119 is seen as corrective. The overbought condition that had developed has been relieved somewhat, and bulls are testing the upside. Scope remains for an upside extension to $40 with a secondary objective at $41.610 (78.6% retracement of the entire decline from $49.752 to $11.703).

Citi upped its three-month forecast for silver from $38 to $40. “We expect silver availability to tighten on consecutive years of deficit, sticky stockholders requiring higher prices to sell, and robust investment demand,” the Citi analysts wrote.

The analysts went on to say that it's "not just a catch-up trade to gold” but also a reflection of strong silver fundamentals. Fed rate cuts later in the year are also expected to help drive the rally, they added.

On the downside, Wednesday's low at $37.557 reinforces support marked by the previous cycle high at $37.288. Below that, the $37.198/$36.956 zone protects the 20-day moving average at $36.830.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are lower in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Retail Sales (+0.1% expected), Philly Fed Index, Import/Export Price Indexes, Initial Jobless Claims, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Mkt Index, TIC Data.

FedSpeak due from Kugler, Daly, Cook, & Waller.