Morning Call
Thursday, January 4, 2024
The gold bears were out this morning as worries over Japanese insurers dumping U.S. government bonds, to cover losses related to this week's earthquakes, sent both bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.
This gold sell-off comes as central banks continue to talk about the need for weaker economic data before they discuss rate cuts, and, on cue, we saw better-than-expected employment data in Europe, adding to worries of a slower-than-expected central bank pivot.
Furthermore, the trade today could see early selling intensify if US ISM manufacturing data comes in positive as expected especially with the afternoon release of the FOMC meeting minutes as any pushing back of US rate cut timing is clearly a major blow to the bull case...[MORE]
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Gold prices slipped to their lowest in a week on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, while investors looked ahead to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs data for more clarity on potential interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $2,053.10 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% to $2,062.20 per ounce...[LINK]
The bulls started the New Year in control as gold prices rallied in the early morning after Israel attacked Syria in response to a rocket attack, and Turkey arrested 33 Israeli "spies".
There is fear that this might be the start of a deeper regional destabilization following the US Navy's sinking of three Houthi ships in the Red Sea, and Iran sending a warship into the Red Sea.
US interest rates were higher overnight and the dollar managed to rally sharply to start the year...[MORE]
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Dec 29 (Reuters) - Gold investors anticipate record high prices next year, when the fundamentals of a dovish pivot in U.S. interest rates, continued geopolitical risk, and central bank buying are expected to support the market after a volatile 2023.
Spot gold is on track to post a 13% annual rise in 2023, its best year since 2020, trading around $2,060 per ounce...[LINK]
The early corrective action in gold and silver this morning is very surprising, especially with the dollar breaking out and posting the lowest trade since the second half of July.
Certainly, a slight uptick in implied treasury yields suggests the rate-cut mentality is at least temporarily overplayed.
On the other hand, today's US initial and ongoing claims data will likely revive the rate cut watch with the probability of Fed easing rising incrementally with each soft US data point...[MORE]
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Dec 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied after hitting a more than three-week high on Thursday, deriving support from a weaker U.S. dollar and lower bond yields as markets bet on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve early next year.
Spot gold was steady at $2,072.09 per ounce at 1206 GMT after earlier rising as high as 2,088.29, the most since Dec. 4. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% at $2,082.20...[LINK]