Blog posts tagged with 'palladium'

Gold trades back above $5,000 on revived haven flows, weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Chinese regulators have reportedly warned the country's financial institutions, particularly major banks, to rein in their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, according to a Bloomberg article. Citing risks and market volatility, officials urged banks to limit new purchases of U.S. government bonds and instructed those with significant exposure to gradually pare their positions.

While the directive did not specifically mention China's official state holdings of Treasuries, that trend is already in progress. Official holdings of U.S. Treasuries peaked at $1.3167 trillion in November 2013 and have steadily declined ever since. The most recent TIC data for November 2025 revealed China's mainland holdings had fallen to $682.6 bln, the lowest since 2008 and nearly a 50% reduction from the 2013 high-water mark. TIC data for December is scheduled for release next week.

These latest developments are consistent with the ongoing de-dollarization trend, where some countries and central banks are strategically reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar as the dominant global reserve currency, opting instead for gold, local currencies, and alternative payment systems. Geopolitical tensions, concerns over dollar weaponization through sanctions and tariffs, and U.S. political and fiscal uncertainties are fostering this trend.

It seems unlikely that the U.S. will slow its deficit spending, and amid doubts that other countries will step in to pick up China's slack, worries are mounting that the Fed will have to start growing its balance sheet again. Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell at the helm of the Fed, is strongly in favor of reducing the balance sheet. 

Further clouding the picture is a pending SCOTUS ruling – possibly as soon as 20-Feb  – on the legality of Trump's tariffs. Some legal analysts and administration officials, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggest it's "very unlikely" the court overturns Trump's signature policy. However, prediction markets are currently estimating a 70-80% chance that the tariffs will be struck down.

Adding to the fog is the possibility of another partial government shutdown. A short-term stopgap funding measure for DHS/ICE is set to expire on Friday, and negotiations have apparently stalled.

The earlier partial government shutdown delayed the January jobs report until Wednesday. Weak labor market data last week created some downside risk for the NFP print. Consensus is +70k, with the jobless rate expected to hold steady at 4.4%.

January CPI data comes out on Friday. Median expectations favor a slight cooling of inflation. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$44.31 (+0.89%)
5-Day Change: +$405.09 (+8.69%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +81.69

Gold has rebounded back above $5,000, amid revived haven demand and a retreat in the dollar. The yellow metal is shrugging off higher yields and focusing more on the weak dollar aspect of "sell America" sentiment.



Despite last week's sharp downside extension, gold was able to muster a higher weekly close and a close back above the 20-day moving average. Both events were viewed as encouraging to the underlying uptrend.

Today's upside follow-through puts gold back above the midpoint of the large $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range. Last week's high at $5,091.85 has been approached, but remains intact thus far. A breach of this level would shift focus to 61.8% retracement level of the late-Jan/early-Feb plunge at $5,141.08. Above that, $5,340.72 would be in play.

I still feel a period of consolidation within the recent range would more clearly define downside risk, allowing the bull camp to retest the upside more seriously. Ongoing high volatility in the silver market remains a wildcard, but gold's comparative resiliency, reflected in a rebound in the ratio to the 70 zone, is a good sign.

Not surprisingly, last week's downside extension shook a lot of investors out of the ETFs. Net outflows were 30.5 tonnes, the largest decline in holdings since May. All regions were sellers, but European investors accounted for 21 tonnes, nearly 70%, of the outflows.

The PBoC confirmed it added approximately 1.24 tonnes to reserves in January, extending its buying streak to 15 straight months. We continue to hear rumors that other central banks have been actively buying during the price correction.

The World Gold Council reported that central banks' net gold purchases totaled 863 tonnes in 2025. While that's down 21% versus 1,092 tonnes in 2024, it's still well above the longer-term annual average of 473 tonnes. The WGC forecasts central bank buying of 850 tonnes this year, amid persistent safe-haven appeal and diversification trends.

On the downside, I'll continue to watch the 20-day MA at $4,894.20 on a close basis for suggestions of renewed weakness. Today's Asian low at $4,966.61 provides a good intervening barrier. More substantial chart support is marked by Friday's low at $4,656.30, which stands in front of the rising 50-day MA at $4,571.72, and last week's low at $4,406.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.315 (+1.69%)
5-Day Change: +$3.721 (+4.69%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +179.39

Silver has moved decisively back above the 50-day moving average to start the week, buoyed by renewed weakness in the dollar and a resilient gold market. Silver may also be garnering support from diminished concerns about an overvalued tech/AI sector.



Fears about an AI bubble and excessive cap ex spending spurred a sharp sell-off in tech stocks last week. However, much of the losses were retraced by the end of the week after some analysts called the concerns overblown.

A close above the 50-day MA today would be a favorable signal, but the more important $92.885/$93.155 zone remains well protected for now. This level is defined by the halfway-back point of the two-week plunge and the 20-day MA and must be regained to re-instill some confidence in the underlying bull trend. The $86.101 Fibonacci level and last week's reaction high at $92.186 provide additional upside hurdles.

On the downside, keep an eye on the 50-day MA at $78.638 on a close basis. Below that, today's Asian low at $77.963, $74.083, $71.684, and $70.000 all protect last week's low at $64.140.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retreat into their ranges as extreme volatility persists

Outside Market Developments: Concerns over overstretched tech valuations have intensified after Alphabet (Google's parent company) reported strong Q4 results but forecast $175–$185 billion in 2026 capex – roughly double last year's – to fuel AI growth. Markets are in risk-off mode, driving a rotation out of tech/AI names into value stocks.

President Donald Trump signed a major $1.2 trillion funding package on Tuesday, ending a brief partial government shutdown. The bill narrowly passed the House by a three-vote margin, 217-214. Twenty-one Republicans voted against the package, highlighting tensions within the party over compromise with Democrats on Homeland Security funding and a number of other conservative priorities.

DHS funding was stripped out of the legislation to avert another protracted government shutdown and will be debated separately during a two-week stopgap period. Democrats will demand significant reforms to immigration enforcement, while Republicans will seek to maintain or expand robust DHS/ICE capabilities without major new restrictions.

The BLS has already announced that the January jobs report, initially scheduled for release on Friday, will be delayed due to the brief partial shutdown. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +68k, with a steady jobless rate at 4.4%.

The jobs data that did come out this week have been soft, stoking ongoing worries about job creation, suggesting potential downside risk to NFP, and contributing to overall risk aversion. The ADP employment report showed private sector employment increased by just 22k jobs in January, well below market expectations of +48k.

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024. While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist.

U.S. employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, more than triple the 35,553 cuts seen in December. That's the highest print for a January since 2009.

“Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026,” said Andy Challenger.

JOLTs job openings tumbled 386k to 6.542M in December 2025, the lowest since September 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2M. Total separations, including quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations, were little changed at 5.3M.

Initial jobless claims jumped to an eight-week high of 231k in the 31-Jan week, above expectations of 212k, versus 209k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose 25k to 1,844k in the week ended 24-Jan, below expectations of 1,850k, versus 1,819k in the previous period.

Rising job-market jitters have lifted Fed easing bets, although Fed funds futures continue to suggest the Fed is on pause through H1. That could change if January NFP misses expectations as well. Currently, the next 25 bps cut is not fully priced until September, and the implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 3.0875%, suggesting potential for just over 50 bps in total easing this year.

Risk aversion has pushed the dollar index to new highs for the week, although rising rate-cut expectations pose a headwind. Last week's plunge to four-year lows suggests the greenback remains vulnerable.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$96.91 (-1.95%)
5-Day Change: -$498.96 (-9.29%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +74.38

Gold is back on the defensive today, weighed by a firmer dollar and a bull camp cautious about recommitting to the upside in light of recent volatility. In Monday's commentary, I wrote, "I'd like to see the market stabilize between $4,400 and $5,000 for some period," which would allow the trade to catch its breath and reevaluate the fundamental and technical pictures.



I see the fundamentals as still broadly supportive. Persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, along with the deterioration of the U.S. fiscal condition, continue to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.

Recent four-year lows in the dollar are indicative of the macro de-dollarization trend. As part of that, central bank demand for gold remains robust, and there are indications that they have been active on this dip. We won't know to what extent until the World Gold Council reports February data in early March.

I speculated on Monday that we would likely see intensified physical buying in Asia, given that we're at the tail end of the Indian wedding season, and the Lunar New Year is just around the corner (17-Feb). Both are auspicious times to gift gold. Reports from key markets like China, Singapore, and India indicate the price drop has indeed led to strong retail enthusiasm.

Gold traded briefly above $5,000 on Wednesday, completing a more than 50% retracement of the recent plunge. However, gains faltered ahead of $5,100, leaving the 61.8% retracement level of the decline protected at $5,141.08 for the time being. Penetration of the latter is needed to significantly improve the technical picture, with $5,000 and Wednesday's high at $5,091.85 now providing intervening barriers. 

I do believe losses are corrective within the long-term downtrend, and I'm encouraged by the fact that gold held the 50-day moving average on a close basis this week and then registered subsequent closes back above the 20-day. I'm watching to see if $4,851.59 will hold on the close today.

UBS and Chase remain quite bullish into year-end, forecasting $6,200 and $6,300, respectively. Beyond last week's all-time high at $5,595.02, my next objectives were $5674.97 (Fibonacci) and $6,000 (psychological). I'll be able to generate some additional targets once I'm confident the corrective low is in.

For now, I suspect we'll see further choppy consolidation within a fairly broad range as the bulls and bears hash things out. Ultimately, that range will likely prove to be a continuation pattern (flag or pennant), culminating in an upside breakout and continuation of the bull trend. While this is my preferred scenario, silver has the potential to drag gold to new corrective lows.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$9.727 (-11.04%)
5-Day Change: -$39.011 (-33.79%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +153.64

Silver remains extraordinarily volatile, with another double-digit percentage move today, weighed by a stronger dollar and revived concerns about overvaluation of the tech/AI sector. The rebound seen earlier in the week was nearly fully retraced and the white metal appears poised to close below its 50-day moving average.



While Monday's low of $71.684 and the low for the year at 71.429 (02-Jan) remain intact at this point, the downside remains vulnerable. Penetration of these levels would shift focus to the $70 zone initially, but potential to the rising 100-day MA at $63.471 would have to be considered.

The gold/silver ratio has firmed to a seven-week high above 66, suggesting scope for further retracement to the 70 zone. If that's the way things unfold, it means gold could hold its current range even if silver were to drop another $10+.

A rise back above the 50-day MA at $77.825 would ease short-term pressure on the downside somewhat, but it sure seems like the wild ride in silver is going to continue.

Additional resistances are marked by an intraday level at $81.043 and the high for the day at $90.392. Wednesday's high at $92.186 provides a strong intervening barrier ahead of the important 20-day MA at $93.500, which is rotating lower. A close above the latter is needed re-instill some confidence in the longer-term bullish scenario.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver remain volatile and defensive after Friday's rout

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market conditions remain quite volatile following Friday's rout. In these conditions, my primary responsibility is servicing our hedging clients and managing risk. It's been difficult to find the time to write, so I have to keep it short today.

While month-end profit-taking may have gotten the ball rolling on Friday, forced liquidations – stemming in part from multiple CME margin hikes in recent weeks – began to cascade the stops. When all was said and done, gold ended Friday's session down nearly 9%, while silver ended down a startling 26%.
 
Some attributed last week's losses to President Trump tapping former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman when Powell's term ends in May. Warsh's hawkish past may have been a contributing factor to the initial profit-taking, but it certainly didn't warrant such a massive sell-off.

Warsh has historically tilted hawkish, but more recently, he has expressed support for easing to boost growth.  Warsh also favors shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and avoiding "mission creep" beyond core mandates of price stability and maximum employment.

While concerns about Fed independence will persist, Warsh is a known entity and is not seen as a devoted Trump acolyte. His pick is generally viewed as "market-friendly," and should get Senate confirmation without too much difficulty.

The needle hasn't really moved much in terms of rate cut expectations in the wake of last week's hold and the Warsh announcement. Fed funds futures continue to price just under 50 bps of easing this year, with the first 25 bps cut not fully priced until September.

The dollar index extended to fill the upside gap at 97.45 that was left a week ago. However, last week's tumble to four-year lows leaves the downside vulnerable.

  

Risk appetite remains broadly elevated with stocks and yields trading higher. However, extreme volatility in the metals may keep bulls that got stung sidelined for a bit.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$126.10 (-2.58%)
5-Day Change: -$311.34 (-6.22%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,773.33 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +65.64

Gold posted an impressive 13% gain in January, despite Friday's plunge, leaving the low for the year at $4,310.83 protected, at least for the time being. While the yellow metal ended last week more than 12% off the $5,595.02 record high, the weekly loss was less than a 2%!



Gold extended below the 20-day moving average and the 50-day as well before rebounding intraday. The burning question on everyone's mind: Is the low in?

It's too early to tell, but in a normal market, reversion to the 20-day and 50-day would be considered reasonable corrective activity. However, gold had diverged from those key MAs dramatically in recent weeks, spurred by safe-haven demand, a weak dollar, and an absolutely insane silver market.

I'd like to see a close above the 50-day MA today. A close above the 20-day MA would be even more encouraging for long-term bulls. Ideally, I'd like to see the market stabilize between $4,400 and $5,000 for some period, allowing the market to catch its breath and reevaluate the situation.

In the back of my mind is a belief that the underlying fundamentals remain broadly supportive, perhaps most notably the well-established de-dollarization trend. If central banks accelerate their buying on this dip, that will tell us a lot.

February is the tail end of peak Indian wedding season. The retreat in gold seems likely to stimulate Indian demand, as well as  Lunar New Year (17-Feb) buying.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$2.404 (-2.82%)
5-Day Change: -$24.469 (-23.58%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +167.37

Silver plunged an unnerving 26% on Friday, but still posted a more than 19% gain for the month of January. A massive key reversal formed on the weekly chart, suggesting downside follow-through was likely today.



Similar to gold, the 20-day and 50-day MAs were exceeded before the market recovered somewhat. A close above the 50-day would be mildly encouraging. A close back above the 20-day, more so.

The low for the year at $71.429 was approached overnight, but remains intact thus far. I'd like to see a range form between $70 and the halfway back point of the plunge at $96.657 (so far). However, the much more volatile silver market is a tougher one to call.

Emboldened bears may look to run stops below $70, which could put the rising 100-day MA at $62.242 in play. Such a downside extension would keep the pressure on gold as well. Stay buckled up and be prepared for continued volatility. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are sharply higher in early U.S. trading.

U.S. calendar features Balance of Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, Q3 Productivity and ULC (final), Factory Orders, Fed Balance Sheet.

Gold surges to new all-time highs, as silver takes a pause

Outside Market Developments: Focus today is on the Fed decision. While the central bank is widely expected to hold steady, the trade will still try to glean insight into future moves from the policy statement and Powell's presser.

Fed funds futures suggest the Fed may be on hold into H2, amid resilient growth and sticky inflation that remains above target. The next rate cut isn't fully priced until September.

Although unlikely to be mentioned today, there is still considerable concern about Fed independence. President Trump wil have the opportunity to replace Powell as chairman when his term ends in May.

BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, lept passed "the Kevins" (Warsh and Hassett) as the new favorite to take over the helm of the Fed. Rieder has advocated for more aggressive rate cuts to get to a neutral Fed funds rate of 3%.

The market remains tilted toward risk-on, bolstered by persistent enthusiasm for tech and AI. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla report earnings after the close today.

The potential for another partial U.S. government shutdown remains high as funding for several key agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, expires at midnight on Friday. Senate Democrats have vowed to block that funding amid opposition to DHS/ICE deportation actions, including the recent shootings.

Shut-down risks are contributing to recent pressure on the dollar. Recent central bank jawboning and "rate checks" also weighed on the greenback. However, Treasury Secretary Bessent said on CNBC this morning that the U.S. is "absolutely not" intervening in the currency market to support the Japanese yen.

The dollar index tumbled to four-year lows on Tuesday. The breach of last year's low at 96.22 reestablishes the dominant downtrend in the greenback. While the DX is trading modestly higher within Tuesday's range today on Bessent's comments, the technical damage has been done. 

 
 
Scope is seen for a short-term test of the 95.09/00 level. Below that, a secondary retracement level at 94.67 would be in play.

MBA Mortgage Market Index fell 33.9 points to 363.30 in the week ended 23-Jan, versus 397.20 in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate rebounded to 6.24% from 6.16% in the previous week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$80.50 (+1.55%)
5-Day Change: +$469.35 (+9.71%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,311.38
52-Week Range: $2,745.87 - $5,311.38
Weighted Alpha: +100.25

Gold set new all-time highs for the eighth consecutive session, buoyed by relentless haven demand. While the dollar firmed today after Bessent's comments on intervention, yesterday's breach of key support should continue to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.

 

Gold is outperforming silver today and is up nearly 10% over the last five sessions. Additionally, weighted alpha has cracked the 100 threshold for the first time in my memory. Upside momentum seems likely to carry the day, even as the market becomes increasingly overbought.

That overbought condition may lead to a corrective pullback, but at this point, the trade is disinclined to try to pick a top. They continue to view short-term setbacks as buying opportunities.

With Fibonacci objectives at $5,180.79 and $5,268.49 satisfied and exceeded, focus now shifts to the $5,400 psycholical barrier. Above the latter, additional b-g-round-numbers at $5,500 and $5,600 stand in front of the next Fibonacci level, which comes in at $5,674.97.

On the downside, intraday support at $5,242.07/41.12 protects today's Asian low at $5,157.93. Below that, congestion around $5,100 should help keep the more important $5,000 level at bay.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.413 (+0.37%)
5-Day Change: +$18.332 (+19.69%)
YTD Range: $71.429 - $117.705
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $117.705
Weighted Alpha: +343.64

Silver is taking a bit of a pause, allowing gold to play some catch-up. While the last record high was set on Monday, the white metal is still up nearly 20% over the past week!



The gold/silver ratio has stabilized somewhat after testing below 44 on Monday, a level not seen since August of 2011. That being said, there's nothing to suggest at this point that a low is in place. With more than 78.6% of the entire rally from 31.707 (Apr'11 low) to 126.433 (Mar'20 high), potential is in fact all the way back to that low.

Several more sessions of congestion in silver would go a long way toward calming the market. Maybe that's too much to ask for at this point.

The CME is raising margin rates once again from 9% to 11% for hedges, and 12.1% for spec trades. The CME is also attempting to address the market access issue by launching a 100-ounce silver contract.

Today's Asian high at $116.092 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of Monday's recod high at $117.705. Beyond the latter, psychological barriers at $118, $119, $120, etc protect the next Fibonacci projection at $128.721.

Today's earlier U.S. low at $110.582 protects the $110.00 zone. Below that more important supports are found at $105.086, $103.437, and $102.445.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.