Blog posts tagged with 'palladium'

8/29/2025

Gold reaches 10-week highs, bolstered by heightened risk aversion, rate cut hopes, weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Today's U.S. economic data reinforces the narrative of a resilient economy with inflation in check. This is keeping expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in September elevated near 90%.

Personal income rose 0.4% and PCE rose 0.5% in July, indicating sustained consumer-driven growth. While buoyant household spending underpins economic growth, worries about the potential detrimental impacts of tariffs, the potential for revived inflation, and troubling signs revealed in the July jobs report linger.

As noted in yesterday's comment, good growth and above target inflation suggest there is no urgency for the Fed to ease. Additionally, I feel some voting members may be inclined to assert Fed independence by holding steady in the face of considerable White House pressure to cut rates.

That being said, while Fed independence signalling is a bit of a wildcard for the upcoming meeting, policymakers are generally disinclined to intentionally surprise the market. Recent FedSpeak has tilted dovish, so there hasn't been any concerted effort to trim market expectations for a cut.

The market remains quite optimistic about a September rate cut, but I see it more as a 50/50 proposition at this point. We'll see another payrolls report next week and additional inflation data ahead of the September FOMC meeting. It would take a bad August NFP report and/or a significant tempering of inflation to drag me into the consensus camp.

With inflation still elevated, consumer confidence ebbing, and a weak Chicago PMI print, the stock market is under pressure on the last trading day of August amid heightened risk-off sentiment.

The dollar index has fallen more than 2% in August, although price action has been confined to the range established in July.

Trade Balance widened to a -$103.6 bln deficit in July, outside expectations of -$90.2 bln, versus a revised -$84.9 bln in June (was -$86.0 bln).

Personal Income rose 0.4% in July on expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.3% in June. PCE rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, versus a revised +0.4% in Jube (was +0.3%). Headline PCE inflation rose 0.2% m/m, leaving the annualized rate unchanged at 2.6%. Core inflation rose 0.3%, leading to an uptick in the annualized rate from 2.8% to 2.9%.

Chicago PMI fell to 45.0 in August, below expectations of 46.0, versus 47.1 in July.

Michigan Sentiment Index (final) was revised down to a three-month low of 58.2 for August, versus a preliminary print of 58.6 and 61.7 in July. Inflation expectations were revised down to 3.5% (was 3.9%) versus 3.4% in July.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$11.61 (-0.34%)
5-Day Change: +$43.89 (+1.30%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +35.15

Gold advanced to a ten-week high on the last trading day of August, buoyed by persistent expectations of a September rate cut, a weaker dollar, and an uptick in risk aversion. While the range remains intact, the yellow metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close and the strongest monthly close since April, when the all-time high was set.

The breach of resistance at $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) prompted a challenge of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13, the last significant barrier ahead of the all-time high from 22-Apr at $3,500. While we may still see some profit-taking ahead of the holiday weekend, this week's gains are consistent with expectations for a range breakout to the upside as the summer doldrums wind down.

While multi-week highs may keep jewelry demand subdued, Indian jewelers are starting to stock up ahead of the festival season. Demand tends to increase in advance of Diwali and the Indian wedding season, contributing to increased volatility.

Fresh record highs would bolster confidence in the previously established $3,601.42 Fibonacci objective. A measuring objective off the symmetrical triangle breakout suggests potential to $3,743.

I still like the $4,000 target as well, although in light of the prolonged consolidation this summer, getting there this year now seems unlikely. We could see $4,000 gold in Q1'26 as dedollarization continues, central banks continue to increase their holdings, and investor interest increases.

On the downside, the earlier U.S. low at $3,411.30 now protects the more important $3,403.42/$3,400.00 level. The market has pulled away nicely from the 20- and 50-day moving averages, which are now well protected at $3,368.25 and $3,349.64, respectively.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.213 (-0.55%)
5-Day Change: +$0.041 (+0.11%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +37.08

Silver has surged to new 14-year highs to move within striking distance of $40. The white metal is on track for a second straight higher weekly close and a fourth consecutive winning month.



Beyond $40, there's a Fibonacci objective at $40.396 and an important retracement level at $41.610 that corresponds closely with a measuring objective off the triangle breakout.

An eventual breach of $41.610 would mean $50 is very much in play. Robust demand and an impending sixth straight year of a structural supply deficit in 2026 bode well for the bullish scenario.

Former resistance at $39.517 now defines initial support. Below that, intraday levels at $39.127/123 protect the $39.00 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold reaches 5-week highs as worries about a politicized Fed stoke haven interest

Outside Market Developments: Second-quarter GDP was revised up to +3.3%, the highest since Q3-23. The boost is attributed to stronger consumer spending and business investment—a sharp decline in imports associated with the end of tariff front-running and reduced government spending tempered growth.

Initial jobless claims decreased last week after reaching an eight-week high of 234k in the week ended August 16. The four-week average climbed to 228.5k, which is still comfortably below the post-COVID high of 251.75k.

With the economy continuing to display signs of resilience, and the GDP chain price data reflecting cooling, but above-target inflation, arguably, there's no real urgency for the Fed to cut rates. There may also be a case to be made for asserting independence by holding steady in the face of unrelenting White House pressure to ease.

In the wake of today's data, Fed funds futures reflect only a slight downtick in expectations for a 25-bps rate cut in September. Fed funds futures continue to price just over 50 bps of easing by year-end.

Market focus is on tomorrow's PCE report and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Market consensus is that PCE inflation will remain steady at 2.6% y/y.

(Former?) Fed Governor Lisa Cook has filed suit against President Trump, Fed Chair Powell, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in an effort to keep her job. Cook has asked for emergency relief to allow her to remain on the board as the lawsuit plays out.

“The President determined there was cause to remove a governor who was credibly accused of lying in financial documents from a highly sensitive position overseeing financial institutions,” said a White House spokesman. Cook claims to be gathering accurate information to address the claims, but she has not yet provided a detailed public refutation of the specific accusations.

Beyond the Cook affair, some Investors are worried about escalating White House pressure on the Fed to advance more accommodative policy. A politicized central bank could compromise its ability to execute the dual mandate of promoting stable prices and maximum employment.

Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% in the second report, above expectations of 3.1%, versus 3.0% in the advance report and -0.5% in Q1.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 5k to 229k in the week ended 23-Aug, below expectations of 230k, versus a revised 234k in the previous week (was 235k). Continuing claims fell to 1,954k in the 16-Aug week, versus a revised 1,972k in the previous week (was 1,961k).

Pending Home Sales Index fell 0.4% to 71.7 in July, below expectations of -0.1%, versus 72.0 in June.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.31 (-0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$62.32 (+1.87%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +34.30

Gold is trading higher for a third straight session, extending to five-week highs above $3,400, as worries that Fed independence is in jeopardy stoked haven interest. A softer dollar is providing additional lift.



The breach of resistance at $3,403.42 (8-Aug high) bodes well for a challenge of the 23-Jul high at $3,435.01. Above that, the record high at $3,500 would be back in play.

Former resistance at $3,403.42/$3,400.00 now marks initial support, protecting today's overseas low at $3,384.72. The 20-day moving average is tracking higher and should correspond closely with Wednesday's low at $3,374.11 by tomorrow.

Be aware of the potential for position squaring ahead of the long holiday weekend.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.369 (+0.96%)
5-Day Change: +$0.852 (+2.23%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +37.35

Silver has rebounded to five-week highs, buoyed by strength in gold and a weaker dollar. The white metal has moved back within striking distance of the 14-year high set on 23-Jul at $39.517.



Minor tiers of chart resistance at $39.180 and $39.340 protect that high. Beyond $39.517, previously established objectives at $40 and $41.610 (Fibonacci) remain valid.

The supply-demand dynamics of silver remain broadly supportive. However, like gold, there is some risk of profit-taking ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

Intraday support at $38.818 protects today's low at $38.583. The low for the week corresponds closely with the rising 20-day moving average at $38.103/101.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold edges higher to pressure $3,400 amid rising concerns about Fed independence

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump said on Tuesday that he will soon have a "majority" of his nominees on the Fed board of governors as he moved this week to fire Governor Lisa Cook. Apparently, Cook is not going to go without a fight.

“Once we have a majority, housing is going to swing, and it’s going to be great,” Trump said. Keep in mind, there were only two dovish dissenters among the 12 voting members of the FOMC at the July meeting.  Nonetheless, Trump's maneuvering raises concerns about the central bank's independence.

Treasury Secretary Bessent has renewed his call for Fed Chairman Powell to initiate an internal investigation, including the circumstances surrounding the allegation of mortgage fraud levied at Cook. “I’ve encouraged Chair Powell to do this on an internal basis before there is an external review,” Bessent said.

Cook is accused of declaring two separate properties to be her owner-occupied primary residence to secure more favorable financing. This does constitute mortgage fraud, and if the allegation is unfounded, Cook should produce the documents and put the matter to rest.

“We haven’t heard her say ‘I didn’t do it,’ — she just keeps saying, the president can’t remove her,” Bessent said. “If a Fed official committed mortgage fraud,” they should not be serving at one of the main US financial regulators, he added.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams (centrist) says every FOMC meeting is "live," implying that the central bank could indeed resume its easing campaign as soon as September. Fed funds futures continue to price in just over 50 bps in rate cuts by year-end.

Analysts expect Nvidia to report strong earnings after the close today, which could highlight Intel's competitive lag. A miss could weigh on the tech sector.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 0.5% in the 22-Aug week, versus -1.4% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked up to 6.69% from 6.68%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$17.79 (-0.52%)
5-Day Change: +$33.03 (+0.99%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +33.24

Gold edged to a new high for the week and is threatening resistance at $3,400.00/03.42. The yellow metal is being buoyed by rate cut expectations, scope for a more dovish tilt to the FOMC, and a soft dollar.

The move above the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern earlier in the week created a more bullish technical bias. While gold remains confined to the range that was established during the April/May period, the record high is now just over $100 away.

A breach of the 8-Aug high at $3,403.42 would shift focus to $3,435.01 (23-Jul high). The 16-Jun high at $3,449.13 is another key barrier ahead of the all-time high from 22-Apr at $3,500.

Today's intraday low at $3,374.11 protects chart/moving average support at $3,351.54/47.10. The important 100-day moving average at $3,330.06 provides an intervening barrier ahead of last week's low at $3,311.66.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.402 (-1.04%)
5-Day Change: +$0.382 (+1.01%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +33.89

Silver caught a bid in front of $38, helped by firmness in gold and a softer dollar. While now higher on the day, the white metal is still lower for the week.



Expectations for strong Nvidia earnings could also be providing some support. Silver is an important component in AI chips and data centers due to its exceptional electrical and thermal conductivity.

The Silver Institute released a report compiled by Metals Focus yesterday that touts physical silver investment as an increasingly important component of global demand. The report focuses on the top four physical silver markets: The U.S., India, Germany, and Australia.

"The scale of US buying has been astounding, with a combined total of 1.5 billion ounces (Boz) of silver purchased by retail investors between 2010 and 2024," according to the report. Metals Focus acknowledged that U.S. demand is in a lull, but expects interest to improve slightly in H2.

Macroeconomic uncertainties stemming from President Trump's trade and fiscal agendas have stoked renewed interest in safe-haven assets this year. His perceived efforts to infringe on the independence of the Fed are also contributing to the haven bid.

Metals Focus believes that if Chairman Powell is prematurely ousted from the Fed, it "would likely weigh on the dollar, to the benefit of silver (and gold) prices."

Today's European low at $38.103 reinforces the significance of the 20-day moving average at $37.983. The 50-day MA comes in at $37.583.

A breach of Friday's high at $39.062 would lend credence to the scenario that calls for a retest of the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) and a push to $40.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold firms within the range, buoyed by September rate cut expectations and softer dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump dialed up pressure on the Fed by removing moderate dove Lisa Cook from the Board of Governors following an accusation of mortgage fraud. While Trump cited a "criminal referral," Cook has not been formally charged with any crime, and it's unclear if an investigation has been opened. The President only has the authority to fire someone from the Fed for cause.

The market continues to anticipate a resumption of the Fed's easing campaign at the next FOMC meeting in September. The probability of a 25 bps rate cut next month edged up to 86.2% from 83.7% yesterday, although I doubt that the Lisa Cook situation is moving the needle.

Powell's dovish tilt at Jackson Hole on Friday is more significant. Today's economic data provides some additional impetus for a rate cut. While durable goods orders weakened for a second straight month after importers front-ran tariffs in May. Consumer confidence edged down, in part due to one-year inflation expectations rebounding above 6%.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Beijing ratcheted higher after President Trump threatened 200% tariffs if rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. were curbed.  “They have to give us magnets, if they don’t give us magnets, then we have to charge them 200% tariffs or something,” Trump said.

Durable Orders fell 2.8% in July, inside expectations of -4.0%, versus -9.4% in June. Ex-transportation rose 1.1%, the sixth positive print so far this year.

Case-Shiller Home Price 20-City Index ticked down to 342.9 in June, versus 343.00 in May. The annualized rate of appreciation ebbed to 2.1% from 2.8% in May.

FHFA Home Price Index fell 0.2% in June to 433.8, versus 434.6 in May. The 12-month pace slowed to 2.6% y/y from a revised 2.9% (was 2.8%).

Consumer Confidence fell 1.3 points to 97.4 in August, above expectations of 96.5, versus a revised 98.7 in July (was 97.2). The present situation and expectations components fell, while inflation expectations rose to 6.2% from 5.7%.

Richmond Fed Index rose 13 points to -7 in August, above expectations of -17, versus -20 in July. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$6.34 (+0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$56.45 (+1.70%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.72

Gold moved to two-week highs above the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern. The yellow metal is being buoyed by heightened rate cut expectations, a softer dollar, an uptick in trade tensions, and persistent geopolitical risks.



The next tier of resistance is marked by the 8-Aug high at $3,403.42. Penetration would shift focus to $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) and stoke expectations for a retest of the record high at $3,500.

Global ETFs saw net outflows of 5.2 tonnes last week. European investors were responsible for inflows of 5.2 tonnes. 

 

Throughout the summer doldrums, gold has been underpinned by safe-haven demand amid Fed policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and strong central bank buying, particularly from China. An eventual resumption of the dominant uptrend is favored.

While the seasonal end to the doldrums is nigh, traders may still look to job the range until after the Labor Day weekend. A return to the 20- and 50-day moving averages would not be surprising. Below that, the 100-day MA has provided good support in recent weeks.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.118 (-0.31%)
5-Day Change: +$1.023 (+2.74%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +34.49

Silver edged lower amid U.S. data that are suggestive of a slowing economy. However, dovish Fed expectations, strength in gold, a softer dollar, and generally favorable supply/demand dynamics should limit the downside.



About 50% of Friday's gains have been retraced. More important support at $37.906/902 is marked by the 20-day moving average and the midpoint of the range.

While recent tests above $39 could not be sustained, last week's violation of the $38.826 Fibonacci level bodes well for a retest of the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) and a push to $40.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate Friday's gains, look to fresh inputs to clarify Fed policy path

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that a September interest rate cut may be appropriate. "[W]ith policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."

While markets reacted to the statement, Fed funds futures suggest the probability of a 25-bps cut at the September FOMC meeting hasn't changed significantly. Those odds currently stand at 83.1%, compared to 82.7% a week ago.

The trade will be paying close attention to the second reading on Q2 GDP on Thursday and the PCE report on Friday. An upward revision to GDP or signs of accelerating inflation would temper September rate cut expectations.

The dollar index reached a three-week low on Friday, after forays into the upper half of the recent range sparked selling interest. The dominant trend in the dollar remains bearish.

Vice President JD Vance told Meet the Press on Sunday that Russian President Putin has made some concessions concerning the war in Ukraine. Putin told Trump he would respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine after the fighting ends, but it remains likely that Kyiv will have to give up some territory to get to that point.

“They’ve recognized that they’re not going to be able to install a puppet regime in Kyiv, and importantly, they’ve acknowledged that there is going to be some security guarantee to the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Vance said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow views Ukraine's Zelenskyy as “illegitimate,” dimming hopes for a summit between Putin and Zelenskyy. “Irrespective of when this meeting might take place, and that must be very well prepared, the issue of who is going to sign the deal on Ukrainian side is a very serious issue,” Lavrov claimed.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index ticked down 0.01 points to -0.19 in July, versus a revised -0.18 in June (-0.10).

New Home Sales ebbed to a 0.652M pace in July, above expectations of 0.635M, versus a revised 0.656M in June (was 0.627M).

Dallas Fed Index fell 2.7 points to -1.8 in August, versus 0.9 in July. The July print was the only positive reading since January.

Today was the Summer Bank Holiday in the UK. Markets were closed, and there were no fixes. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$6.54 (-0.19%)
5-Day Change: +$36.30 (+1.09%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,474.08 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +32.57

Gold remains range-bound, although Powell's dovish comments on Friday prompted a test of the upper limits of the symmetrical triangle. The trade now awaits further inputs to gauge the likelihood that the Fed will resume its easing campaign.



As the yellow metal approaches the apex of that triangle pattern, we are also approaching the traditional end of the "summer doldrums." Historically, investors become reengaged at the end of the summer, and we start to see buying in advance of Diwali and the Indian wedding season. 

I believe gold will ultimately break out to the upside and resume its bullish trend. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a headfake to the downside to first shake out weak longs.

The 100-day moving average has provided good support in recent weeks and corresponds closely with Friday's low at $3.322.00. Last week's low at $3,311.66 provides an additional intervening barrier ahead of more important lows at $3,270.50 (30-Jul) and $3,256.02 (30-Jun).

Friday's convincing breach of the 50- and 20-day moving averages at $3,346.57/48.53 bodes well for renewed short-term tests above $3,400. Penetration of the 8-Aug high at $3,403.42 would shift focus to $3,435.01 (23-Jul high).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.196 (-0.50%)
5-Day Change: +$0.741 (+1.95%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $27.732 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +36.22

Silver is consolidating Friday's knee-jerk reaction to Powell's comments. While lower on the day, the white metal is trading at the high end of Friday's range.



While tests above $39 have been unsustained thus far, with the 78.6% Fibonacci objective exceeded, a retest of the 14-year high at $39.517 (23-Jul) looks likely. Beyond the latter, $40 attracts.

Today's earlier U.S. low at $38.578 now protects the midpoint of Friday's range at $38.383. The 20-day moving average is well protected at $37.893.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.