Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold has been unable to sustain tests below $1900 in recent weeks. While it’s premature to suggest the corrective low is in place at $1884.88 (21-Aug), support is now clearly defined. The yellow metal traded as low as $1901.05 last week which now marks a good intervening support level.

Gold has garnered some lift from revived inflationary pressures, uncertainty associated with the UAW strike, and the latest risk of a government shutdown.

Annualized CPI rose to 3.7% in August, versus 3.2% in July. PPI jumped to 1.6% y/y from 0.8% in July. Gas prices have reached new highs for the year at a time when ebbing seasonal demand should be tamping the price.

Production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with severe flooding in Libya have squeezed supply and pushed crude to 10-month highs, approaching $100 per barrel. The price has risen at the fastest pace since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.

Gold is pressuring the upper reaches of the broad corrective channel. A move back above the 100-day MA at $1945.59, and perhaps more importantly the $1953.06 high from 01-Sep would set a more favorable tone within the range.

Despite resurgent inflation, Fed funds futures indicate that the central bank will hold steady when they announce policy this week. The probability of steady policy is currently at 99%.

Heightened growth risks, seem to be offsetting inflationary pressures. If Fed funds remain at 5.25-5.50%, market participants will turn to the policy statement and the projections for clues as to the Fed’s next move.

Not surprisingly, risks to growth along with stubborn inflation have led to heightened talk about stagflation. During the last bout of stagflation, which occurred in the 1970s, gold was one of the best-performing assets.

It is reasonable to assume that gold will once again serve as a hedge, should stagflation rear its ugly head once again.  With gold less than 7% off its all-time high ($2075.28), the last several months of corrective to consolidative price action seem to present a favorable buying opportunity.

Silver

Silver unsuccessfully challenged important support at $22.22/11 last week before rebounding into the range. With this level intact, downside risk is clearly defined.

Worries about an economic slowdown are further exacerbated by the U.S. autoworker’s strike. While the auto industry will remain a huge source of demand for silver, the strike may sap demand in the short term.

According to the Silver Institute, the auto industry consumes 60 Moz of silver annually. That figure is expected to grow to 90 Moz by 2025, driven largely by the rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs).

Conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines contain 15 to 28 grams of silver. On the other hand, the silver load in EVs can be as high as 50 grams.

Some more upbeat economic data out of China in August suggests the demand picture may be improving. That would bode well for silver and other industrial metals, but many analysts worry that the property slump is likely to persist, leading to an ongoing drag on the economy.

A rebound above $24 would put silver back above all the major moving averages, setting a more positive technical tone within the large developing triangle pattern. Given the long-term supply and demand fundamentals, an eventual upside breakout of this pattern is still preferred.

PGMs

Platinum rebounded nearly 4% last week, leaving a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A breach of the neckline around $990 is needed to confirm the formation, which would have bullish implications. Upside potential would be $1107.68 based on a measuring objective.

A soft landing in the U.S. along with an end to the autoworkers strike would provide fundamental support to this scenario, as would a sustained recovery in China.

Palladium remains defensive after falling to nearly a 5-year low early in September. The autoworkers’ strike adds additional pressure to an already bleak demand environment.

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

While the dollar has not made a fresh high for the move since last Thursday (6-month high), the currency index remains near upside breakout territory, suggesting potential for a resumption of upside follow-through today.

With treasury yields also breaking out to the highest level since August 22nd overnight and sitting within one point of contract lows, renewed strength in the dollar should not be discounted.

In short, outside market forces continue to favor the bear camp in gold and silver with internal bullish fundamentals incapable of supporting prices or are simply completely absent...[MORE]

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Sep 18 (Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Monday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision this week, where it is overwhelmingly expected to keep interest rates steady, but investors will be watching the central bank's language on future rates.

Spot gold gained 0.1% to $1,925.50 per ounce by 1223 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,948...[LINK]

In addition to a justified short-covering bounce from the oversold condition into yesterday's lows, gold and silver are drafting lift from better-than-expected Chinese economic news overnight.

Apparently, a portion of the gold and silver trade saw this week's US CPI and PPI readings as inflationary, and in turn traders in those markets raised their expectations for a US Fed hike. It should be noted that the inflationary signs in this week's key monthly US inflation reports were interpreted as dovish because excluding food and energy readings supposedly countervailed the headline gains.

However, we think the odds favor a pause although not as high as the CME Fed watch tool suggested this morning at 97%...[MORE]

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Sep 15 (Reuters) - Gold recovered from three-week lows on Friday aided by the dollar's retreat after better-than-expected Chinese data and a stronger euro, while traders focussed on the Federal Reserve's guidance on interest rates next week.

Spot gold was up 0.4% to $1,917.49 per ounce by 1031 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Aug.23 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,939...[LINK]

Despite slightly supportive early dollar action both gold and silver are tracking lower perhaps because of concern for the ECB rate decision early today. In the latest survey, the trade attaches a 63% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike by the ECB.

The action in the gold and silver markets yesterday should have been extremely discouraging for the bull camp as the markets dodged what appeared to be a very hot headline US CPI reading without rekindling fear of a US rate hike next week.

In fact, the CME Fed Watch tool before the report had a 93% probability the Fed would be on hold, with the probability of being on hold rising to 97% after the report was digested...[MORE]

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Sep 14 (Reuters) - Gold held its ground on Thursday near three-week lows ahead of an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank as well as U.S. economic data that could provide clues on the monetary policy outlook.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,908.18 per ounce by 1121 GMT, after touching $1,904.93, its lowest since Aug. 25. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,929.60...[LINK]