Blog posts tagged with 'precious metals'

8/12/2024

Gold and silver trade higher as the market looks ahead to U.S. inflation data

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pledged "to take every possible step to defend Israel" in a call with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Amid ongoing fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel, Austin has ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the region and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to "accelerate its transit" to the Middle East.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed over the weekend that Ukrainian troops are operating inside Russia. The incursion is entering its seventh day and Russian forces are still trying to contain the attack. The U.S. is sending an additional $125M worth of weapons to Ukraine, bringing total military aid to $55.6 bln since the beginning of the war.

The slowing Chinese economy is leading to labor unrest in the country. Nikkei Asia reports that labor strikes in China rose 3% in H1 to 719 incidents, led by the construction and manufacturing sectors. This number is probably low, but the fact that workers are willing to take such risks is a testament to how dire the situation is becoming.

Japanese markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Mountain Day holiday. Further near-term yen and stock market volatility are likely.

Today's U.S. economic calendar is light with just the release of July Treasury Budget on the agenda. The market is anticipating a deficit of $242 bln, versus -$66 bln in June and -$228 bln a year ago. The ever-rising level of U.S. debt is an ongoing concern for investors with significant implications for Treasuries and the dollar.

Focus this week is on U.S. inflation data. July PPI comes out tomorrow with median expectations of +0.2% m/m and a drop to 2.2% y/y. July CPI data will be released on Wednesday. The market is expecting +0.2% m/m with the annualized rate holding steady at 3.0%. 


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$12.49 (+0.51%)
5-Day Change: +$32.37 (+1.34%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +29.64

Gold is trading higher for a third session with more than 78.6% of the early-August sell-off now retraced. The yellow metal is being buoyed by rate-cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions as markets await U.S. inflation data this week.



Hotter-than-expected inflation readings could temper Fed easing expectations and ramp volatility yet again. If inflation comes in as expected or below expectations, the Fed will remain on track for up to a 50 bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures currently put the probability of a 25 bps cut at 52.5% and a 50 bps cut at 47.5%.

The underlying trend for gold remains bullish but be prepared for additional short-term choppy trade. The unwinding of yen carry trades factored into the volatility seen early last week and further unwinding remains a risk.

The BoJ only pledged to stall further tightening "when financial markets are unstable," but the writing is on the wall. The BoJ is on a tightening path and the Fed is on the verge of easing. The BoJ will announce policy on 20-Sep just two days before the next policy statement from the FOMC.

Fresh all-time highs in gold may be difficult before the CPI release. However, the closes last week back above the 20-day moving average, and today's upside follow-through all bode well for the bull camp.

The series of lower highs and higher lows that have emerged since the record high was set at $2,481.33 on 17-Jul is indicative of a symmetrical triangle. This chart formation is typically a continuation pattern within the dominant trend, so an eventual upside breakout is favored.

The 02-Aug high at  $2,474.58 marks initial resistance. A breach of this level would clear the way for a retest of $2,481.33. Beyond that $2,500.00/$2,503.27 would attract.

Initial support is defined by an intraday chart point at $2,440.37/$2,440.00. More substantial support is found at the 2424.62/$2,417.62, where today's overseas low, and Friday's low converge with the 20-day SMA.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.479 (+1.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.673 (+2.47%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +21.23

Silver is trading higher on the day, probing into the upper half of last week's range. While the white metal is garnering some support from a more bullish gold market, global growth risks continue to weigh.



On top of persistent worries about Chinese and U.S. growth, there are increasing concerns that waning economic confidence and weaker manufacturing orders could tip Germany back into a technical recession in Q3. Japan remains in a tenuous position as well. Worries about the four largest global economies do not bode well for industrial metals, which include silver.

Today's action may be short covering ahead of U.S. inflation data. A move back above $28 could trigger additional position squaring with potential at that point back to the 20-day moving average at $28.483.

However, I'd still like to see trades with a 29-handle to at least suggest the corrective low is in place. Such a move seems unlikely ahead of Wednesday's CPI report unless PPI comes in shockingly low.

Further out, the $30 level must be regained to return confidence to the longer-term uptrend and put the July high at $31.652 and the May high at $32.379 back in play. That seems unlikely without some significant change to global growth prospects, leaving the bears in control.

A more likely scenario is that a consolidative pattern emerges within the broad $32.379/$26.524 rage that developed over the past several months, particularly if haven buying can offset some of the demand-destruction-related selling. 

Initial support is noted at $27.703/681, which protects the overseas low at $27.255. The latter corresponds pretty closely with the halfway back point of the recent bounce.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/9/2024

Gold and silver stabilize after Thursday's solid gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Ukraine continues to press its offensive within Russian territory. Fierce battles are reportedly underway in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

While Russia claimed the incursion was halted, reports from residents in the region suggest otherwise. Seemingly, Russia was caught completely off-guard by the offensive and is scrambling to respond.

Additionally, Russia's Lipetsk region has "been subjected to a massive [drone] attack” according to the regional governor there. A military airfield outside the city of Lipetsk appears to have been the target.

Recent seismic activity has prompted Japan to issue its first-ever megaquake advisory. A megaquake is defined as a magnitude 8 or higher, with the potential for significant structural damage and loss of life.

Wall Street had its best day since 2022 on Thursday, just days after its worst day for the same period. Yesterday's lower-than-expected initial jobless claims tempered labor market worries triggered by the July nonfarm payrolls miss, boosting sentiment.

However, I believe the optimism that was generated is overblown. The 3-month uptrend in initial and continuing claims remains intact, creating downside risk for August payrolls. Look for market volatility to remain elevated amid persistent uncertainty about inflation, growth risks, central bank policy, and the unwinding of yen carry trades.

Attention now turns to U.S. inflation data that comes out next week. The market is expecting a monthly rise of 0.2% for July PPI. Median expectations for July CPI are +0.2% m/m as well.

Ross Norman senses some frustration in the markets "that the higher-for-longer narrative is long beyond its sell-by date." Next week's data could intensify that frustration, or blow it up.

If inflation readings are hotter than expected, we could see some tempering of Fed rate cut expectations for September. That could lend itself to heightened market volatility on worries that the central bank is mismanaging efforts to orchestrate a soft landing.

Today's U.S. economic calendar is empty. We will hear FedSpeak from nonvoting KC Fed President Jeffrey Schmid this evening. Schmid is a centrist.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +3.80 (+0.16%)
5-Day Change: -$11.16 (-0.46%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +28.09

Gold notched its first higher close in six sessions on Thursday as risk appetite returned. While modest upside follow-through has been seen today, a close above $2,446.00 seems unlikely so we should see a lower weekly close.



Nonetheless, more than 50% of this week's decline has been retraced and gold has moved back within 2% of its all-time high. The yellow metal also registered a close back above the 20-day moving average yesterday, another bullish signal. A breach of the $2,434.29 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from last week's high) would lend additional credence to the long-term uptrend.

While risk appetite recovered in the latter half of the week, I suspect prudent investors who were rattled by this week's market plunge are adding gold to their portfolios as a hedge against ongoing risks. An easier dollar is providing some underpinning for gold as well.

A retreat below the 20-day SMA at $2,415.92 would favor further consolidation within the range. Today's overseas low at $2,417.83 bolsters this support area.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.046 (+0.17%)
5-Day Change: -$1.058 (-3.71%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +19.27

Silver saw a key reversal on Thursday, but upside follow-through today has been disappointing thus far. The white metal is poised for its 8th lower weekly close out of the last 12.



The trend since the 11-year high was established at $32.379 on 21-May remains bearish amid ongoing global growth worries. The 20-day moving average is now below both the 50- and 100-day SMAs.

A climb back above $29 is needed to ease pressure on the downside, but right now it's questionable whether silver can reclaim the 28-handle before renewed selling interest emerges.

On the downside, the $26.124/$26.049 area may still be a short-term attraction. This zone is defined by the low from 02-May and the 200-day moving average. The lows from earlier in the week at $26.571/524 provide a good intervening barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/8/2024

Gold and silver firm intraday, helped by a weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market focus seems to have returned to Fed easing expectations after a BoJ official indicated yesterday that the central bank would not tighten further "when financial markets are unstable."

I suspect the BoJ is primarily concerned with price stability within Japan. If Japanese markets are relatively stable by the next BoJ meeting on September 19-20, they very well could resume their efforts to bring down inflation by hiking rates again.

With that in mind, unwinding of yen carry trades is likely to continue. Setbacks in the yen provide a more appealing opportunity to do so than when the Japanese currency is surging.

The next FOMC meeting will precede the BoJ meeting by two days. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 50 bps rate cut. This has caused U.S. yields and the dollar to soften today, providing a boost to risk appetite.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said this week's market volatility "was an overreaction of market forces in the conditions of uncertainty and thin market liquidity during holiday season, not so much due to issues arising from fundamentals of the economy."Barkin  Rehn also noted that the U.S. economy remains "relatively strong."

U.S. initial jobless claims were 233k in the week ended 03-Aug, below expectations of 240k, versus an upward revised 250k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose to 1,875k from 1,869k in the previous week.

Wholesale sales for June come out later this morning. Median expectations are +0.4%.

We'll also hear FedSpeak from Thomas Barkin. The Richmond Fed President is a moderate hawk.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$22.61 (+0.95%)
5-Day Change: -$37.47 (-1.53%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +26.49

Gold was unable to sustain yesterday's early gains and ended up notching a fifth consecutive lower daily close on Wednesday. The yellow metal is trading higher again today, but this time displaying better upside momentum, helped by a weaker dollar.



The breach of yesterday's high at $2,405.17 is an encouraging sign. Given that yesterday's low was slightly exceeded as well, we have an outside day.

Now let's see if gold can sustain gains for the remainder of the session. A higher close would be good. A close above $2,405.17 would constitute a key reversal and would be better yet, suggesting that the corrective low is in place at $2,369.10.

A breach of resistance at $2,416.86/$2,421.84 would put gold back above the 20-day moving average and into the upper half of Monday's range. This would be a positive technical signal as well, although short-term conditions are likely to remain choppy.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.348 (+1.31%)
5-Day Change: -$1.519 (-5.33%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.15

Silver has rebounded modestly after setting a fresh 13-week low in overseas trading. While the downside remains vulnerable amid global growth risks, a higher close after a new cycle low would be at least short-term bullish.



Yesterday's bearish pennant formation played out as expected, culminating with a retest of the $26.571 low. The chart looks a little more constructive today, but resistances at $27.254 (yesterday's high) and $27.492 (Tuesday's high) must be negated to favor a rebound into the upper half of Monday's range above $27.615.

Upticks are still likely to be viewed as selling opportunities within the medium-term downtrend off the May high at $32.379. Silver has fallen 18% since that high. With the 200-day moving average intact, we could still see the long-term uptrend re-exert itself.

It would take a move back above $29 to garner some confidence in such a call. Until then, choppy trade with a downside bias is most likely.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/7/2024

Gold and silver higher on the day, but the downside remains vulnerable

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Dovish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida have calmed markets somewhat. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” said Uchida.

This diminishes immediate concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, but the relief is clearly meant to be temporary. The BoJ will do what it must to get Japan's inflation rate back to the 2% target.

The yen fell to new lows for the week, driving the USDJPY rate to an intraday high of 147.884. The rebound in the dollar has provided some relief for the precious metals and U.S. stocks are trading higher.

Israel continues to brace for a retaliatory strike from Iran and/or Iranian proxies. However, it's been nearly a week since Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran, presumably by Israel. A Washington Post article suggests intense political pressure focusing on the risks of miscalculation may be making Iran think twice about its reaction.

In the wake of Haniyeh's death, Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar as its new leader. Sinwar is said to have plotted the October 7th attack on Israel. Such a defiant move may negatively impact prospects for a cease-fire. Geopolitical risks will remain elevated in the region for the foreseeable future.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$8.21 (+0.34%)
5-Day Change: -$47.45 (-1.94%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +25.82

Gold is trading modestly higher, enjoying a little relief from recent deleveraging pressure thanks to dovish comments out of the BoJ. However, price action remains confined to the lower half of Monday's range.



If the BoJ is on hold for the time being, intending to stabilize markets, it might allow investors to reconsider the value of gold as a hedge against market uncertainty. A climb back into the upper half of Monday's range would offer some encouragement to the bull camp.

While price action in the first part of the week was quite negative, keep in mind that a challenge of the all-time high was just seen on Friday. Gold is currently trading just over 3% off that low. The total magnitude of the retreat from Friday's high to Monday's low is just over 4%.

Perhaps most importantly, the previous corrective low at $2,354.48 (25-Jul) remains well protected. As long as this level is intact, I expect gold to form a consolidative, continuation pattern (symmetrical triangle?) favoring an eventual upside breakout and new all-time highs.

A serious escalation of the situation in the Middle East would likely see safe-haven buying overwhelm any lingering deleveraging pressures, shifting focus back to the dominant uptrend. A  breach of resistance at $2,416.86/$2,421.84 would put gold decisively back in the upper half of this week's range and return a measure of confidence to the uptrend.

A violation of the overseas low at $2,382.00 would leave Monday's low at $2,369.10 vulnerable to a retest. The key support level I'm watching is the 25-Jul low at  $2,354.48.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.198 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: -$2.037 (-7.03%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.01

Silver remains consolidative at the low end of Monday's range. While intraday prices are higher, a second inside day (lower high, higher low) seems to be forming.



The white metal continues to be weighed by heightened growth risks in the world's two biggest economies, the U.S. and China. Silver is less impacted directly by the yen carry trade and less of a beneficiary of the safe-haven interest that has helped buoy gold comparatively.

The bottom line is that the downside remains vulnerable in silver. Upticks lack momentum and are likely to attract further selling interest.

First resistance is marked by the overseas high at $27.254. Secondary resistance is defined by yesterday's high at $27.492. The midpoint of Monday's range is $27.615.

While silver is presently trading higher on the day, a bearish pennant is evident on the hourly chart. A lower close today must be considered, which would set up a retest of Monday's low at $26.571.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/5/2024

Gold and silver pressured amid global stock rout

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. stocks start the new week under heavy pressure as the rout that began on Friday continues. Asian and European markets were slammed overnight as well.

The VIX volatility index surged above 60, the highest level since the pandemic sell-off in 2020. While the VIX has moderated somewhat, it's still up significantly from last week when it was trading in the teens before firming into the 20s on Friday.



Signs of weakness in U.S. jobs data on Friday triggered recession fears. Markets were already on edge about mounting growth risks in China. The risk that the world's two largest economies could be heading into recessions sparked an exodus from just about every asset class.

Treasuries are a notable exception. Treasuries surged on risk-off buying and expectations that the Fed will now cut more than 25 bps in September. Fed funds futures put the probability of a 50 bps cut at 91.5% and 8.5% for a 75 bps cut. 

The Fed chose to hold steady at the end of the July FOMC meeting just last week. The next FOMC meeting is 44 days away. The last time the Fed did an emergency rate cut was in March 2020 during the COVID crisis.

The other exception is the Japanese yen, which surged to 7-month highs against the dollar today. A lot of U.S. stock purchases were funded by the yen carry trade. Those trades are getting unwound after the yen bottomed in early July on expectations that the BoJ was pivoting to tighter policy. The BoJ did indeed hike rates on 31-Jul to a 15-year high of 0.25%.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the G7 that an Iranian and Hezbollah attack on Israel is imminent. While Blinken reportedly said the buildup of US forces in the region was for defensive purposes only, worries of a widening conflict are elevated and may provide some underpinning for safe-haven assets.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$29.61 (-1.21%)
5-Day Change: +$2.89 (+0.12%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +24.87

Gold has retreated more than 4% (high to low) after gains stalled shy of the all-time high at $2,481.63 on Friday on deleveraging associated with the global markets rout. When investors run to the sidelines, even safe-haven assets frequently get sold initially.



However, once the dust settles safe-haven buyers will likely return to the yellow metal. When you consider that the Nikkei was down more than 12% today, one could argue that gold is holding up relatively well. 

At this point, it's a question of where the buyers are likely to come in. The 50-day moving average has contained the downside since early July and comes in at $2,365.73 today. Good chart support marked by the 25-Jul low at $2,354.48 remains protected. The 100-day moving average ($2,340.21 today) should rise to bolster the late-July low by next week.

A close above $2,400 today would be mildly encouraging. While I envision a consolidation pattern developing over the short term, possibly a symmetrical triangle, an Iranian attack on Israel could quickly put the record high back in play. 

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

The COT report for last week showed that net speculative positions fell by 26.5k to 246.6k. I suspect we'll see an additional contraction of the spec position this week unless things really heat up in the Middle East.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$1.316 (-4.61%)
5-Day Change: -$0.839 (-3.01%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.45

Silver extended to a 3-month low of $26.571 in early U.S. trading as U.S. recession risks were heaped atop existing concerns about the Chinese economy. Focus remains squarely on the downside on worries about demand destruction.



The white metal has pulled away on the downside from the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages. The 20-day crossed below the 50-day in mid-July, indicating that the dominant trend is down.

The 200-day SMA climbed above the $26 level last week and now corresponds closely with the $26.049 low from 02-May. This level could provide a formidable downside barrier.

The white metal is already 3% off the intraday low, so there is some buying interest down here. Some of it is certainly profit-taking, but I imagine there's some bargain-hunting going on as well. 

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

The COT report shows that the net speculative long position in silver fell 2.3k to 49.1k in the week ended 02-Aug. It was the second consecutive weekly drop.

A climb back above $28 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but resistance marked by last week's highs at $29.125/133 must be exceeded to suggest potential back to the $30 zone.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/2/2024

Gold and silver collapse after early safe-haven gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Iran is reportedly preparing for a direct attack on Israel that could happen as soon as Friday evening. The Jerusalem Post reports that Israelis are bracing for a 1000-rocket, multi-proxy attack.

If Israel does indeed come under attack, there are growing concerns that the U.S. won't be able to restrain the inevitable Israeli response. This raises the risk of an all-out war in the Middle East.

According to The New York Times, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a bomb smuggled into the Tehran guest house in June. It had been widely reported that an Israeli airstrike killed Haniyeh.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a lean 114k in July, below expectations of +181k, versus a downward revised +179k in June (was +206k). The jobless rate increased to a 33-month high of 4.3%, above expectations of 4.1%, versus 4.1% in June. Hourly earnings came in at +0.2%, on expectations of +0.3%. The average workweek declined to 34.2 hours.

There had been whispers of a better-than-expected payrolls print based on some encouraging labor market data earlier in the week. However, this report was a real disappointment and markets reacted immediately. Treasury yields slid, the dollar fell to 4-month lows, stocks tumbled, and gold neared its all-time high.

Prospects for a 50 bps Fed rate cut in September have surged to 62.5%, from 22% yesterday. Fed funds futures now show an 85.4% probability that the Fed funds rate will be lower by 100 bps or more after the December FOMC meeting.

U.S. factory orders slid 3.3% in June, below expectations of -3.0%, versus -0.5% in May. Transportation orders plunged 20.6%. Inventories were unchanged, after a scant 0.1% rise in May.

With growth risks mounting in the U.S., it's clear that the Fed is behind the curve on easing, just days after their most recent opportunity to cut rates. Hopes that the Fed would be able to orchestrate a soft landing have been dashed. I have been steadfastly less than optimistic that the Fed would be able to make that happen.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$17.85 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: +$71.47 (+2.99%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +29.24

Gold came within striking distance of its all-time high at $2,481.63 on expectations of an Iranian attack on Israel. The prospects of a wider war in the Middle East have sparked risk aversion, providing a safe-haven bid in the yellow metal.

However, the record high survived the initial challenge and strong selling emerged mid-morning, driving gold lower on the day. This may be associated with deleveraging as risk-off selling on Wall Street intensifies, but it's difficult at this early stage to diagnose selling of this nature.



Kitco News ascribes the plunge to "heavy profit taking" and liquidation by weak longs. They may well be right, but it seems like more than that to me. 

A lower daily close seems all but assured at this point. The yellow metal still appears poised to close higher on the week, which would be the first higher weekly close in three. However, with the market cascading lower, a drop below $2,400 would put Monday's open at $2,389.10 in jeopardy.

Weak jobs data and a slump in factory orders have caused Fed easing expectations to surge. This comes mere days after the Fed announced no change to policy at the end of its July FOMC meeting. Yields are dropping and the dollar index has slumped to 4-month lows. Stocks are getting hammered.

At this point, I continue to believe the dominant trend is up and that losses within the $2,481.63/$2,354.58 range that emerged in the June/July period are corrective. Let's wait for the smoke to clear and hopefully, I'll be able to provide some clarity in Monday's report.  


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.447 (+1.57%)
5-Day Change: +$0.982 (+3.52%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +24.58

Silver was initially garnering some support from a strong gold market today, once again testing above $29. However, when gold collapsed from just in front of its record-high, silver plunged back into the range.



Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market along with indications this week of weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector suggest mounting growth risks. This adds to existing concerns about the slumping Chinese economy that have been weighing on silver – and more broadly commodities – for weeks.

Silver is trading just below the midpoint of this week's range ($27.425/$29.133) and appears set for a lower daily close. However, it still seems likely that the white metal will notch its first higher weekly close in four.

Nonetheless, the dominant trend remains negative. High geopolitical risks should provide some underpinning for silver, but new cycle lows below $27.425 can not be ruled out.

On the upside, $29 has gained importance as a resistance level, as has the 100-day moving average on a close basis ($28.662 today). However, I still think trades back above $30 are needed to reinvigorate the bull camp. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

8/1/2024

Gold buoyed by haven interest amid rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Bank of England cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 5% by a narrow 5-4 vote. "MPC continues to remain highly alert to risks of inflation persistence," said BoE governor Bailey.

While the inflation rate in the UK is presently at the BoE target of 2%, they see risk for an H2 rise in CPI to 2.75%. The policy statement indicated that the MPC will ensure the bank rate remains sufficiently restrictive until risks to inflation dissipate further. Future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-to-meeting basis.

Cable (GBP-USD) fell to 4-week lows, providing some lift to the dollar. 

The BoE move comes on the heels of yesterday's BoJ rate hike and a generally dovish hold by the Fed. All of this week's central bank decisions aligned with market expectations.

The Fed seems to be on track to begin easing in September. In yesterday's presser, Fed Chairman Powell said, "A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September,” if incoming data remain on the current path.

Tensions are on the rise in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut and Teheran. Key Hezbollah and Hamas leaders were targeted and reportedly killed in these actions. 

Iran’s supreme leader has ordered retaliatory attacks on Israel, further escalating the risk of all-out war in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged “There are challenging days ahead.”

U.S. Challenger Layoffs were 25.9k in July, the lowest in nearly two years, down from 48.8k in June. Planned layoffs slowed to 9.2% y/y, versus 19.8% y/y in June.

Initial jobless claims jumped 14k to 249k in the week ended 27-Jul. Continuing claims rose to a 32-month high of 1,877k, versus a revised 1,844k in the previous week.

U.S. Q2 productivity (prelim) surged to 2.3%, above expectations of 1.7%, versus a positive revised +0.4% in Q1 (was +0.2%). Unit Labor Costs (ULC) fell to 0.9%, below expectations of 2.0%, versus a revised 3.8% (was 4.0%).

Manufacturing PMI and ISM edged up in July, to 49.6 and 46.8 respectively, reflecting some level of resilience in the U.S. economy. The ISM prices paid index rose to 52.9, versus  52.1 in June driven by higher input costs.

U.S. construction spending was -0.3% in June, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised -0.4% in May (was -0.1%). It was the second consecutive monthly contraction as high mortgage rates continue to adversely impact single-family home construction.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$11.95 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: +$76.34 (+3.23%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +27.91

Gold began the U.S. session modestly lower, but has rebounded to set new intraday and 2-week highs. The yellow metal is trading higher for a third session.



Despite recent corrective activity, gold ended the month of July with an impressive 5.2% gain. It was the sixth consecutive higher monthly close. This suggests the dominant uptrend is very much alive and well. If Israel and Iran go to war, I'd expect new highs in gold pretty quickly on safe-haven buying.

More than 78.6% of the correction has now been retraced, clearing the way for a retest of the record high from 17-Jul at $2,481.63. Intervening chart resistance is noted at $2,469.09/$2,473.97.

A lower interest rate environment and expectations of further global easing should continue to be broadly supportive of gold. The exception is Japan, but remember they're raising rates from negative territory.

The ever-rising U.S. national debt is another bullish catalyst for gold. The $35 trillion milestone was surpassed on 
Friday. The debt-to-GDP ratio remains above 120%. Interest payments on the massive debt pile are now greater than the entire U.S. defense budget. The CBO projects high interest payments could drive the debt-to-GDP ratio to 166% by 2054.

"The borrowing just keeps marching along, reckless and unyielding," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Regardless of how U.S. elections go in November, I don't expect any relief.

There are few choices for reducing debt, as politicians are generally loathe to cut spending or raise taxes on the majority of Americans. Increasing taxes on the "rich" alone isn't going to make a dent. Inflation through dollar devaluation becomes the only viable solution, which drives hedging interest in gold.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.110 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: +$1.100 (+3.95%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +24.82

Silver remains comparatively soft, unable to sustain recent tests back above $29. Increased haven appeal seems unlikely to overcome demand destruction concerns associated with a weakening Chinese economy, at least not in the short term. A war between Israel and Iran could certainly change that.



I've been saying for some time that $30 needs to be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp. That level seems well protected at this point.

Wednesday's close above the 100-day moving average was encouraging, but silver has retreated to trade right around that indicator at $28.632 today. A close this week above $29 would make $30 more attractive.

New intraday lows on the other hand would put yesterday's low at $28.304 to the test. Penetration of the latter would favor a return to the $28 zone.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.