Blog posts tagged with 'precious metals'

Gold surges back above $3,400 on revived haven interest

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk is off amid revived tariff worries and heightened geopolitical tensions. U.S. shares are under pressure, and safe-haven demand has returned to the precious metals.

The Trump administration continues to profess that deals with some key trading partners are close at hand, but markets are growing impatient. Canadian PM Carney will meet with President Trump at the White House today.

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday that incentivizes the manufacture of pharmaceuticals in America. He said he would announce tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals within the next couple of weeks.

The threat of a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the U.S. is the latest surprise. Hollywood is understandably fretting over the implications, but broader market jitters are amplified as it suggests the Trump administration is not done throwing levies at the wall to see what might stick.

The U.S. trade balance reached a record wide deficit of -$140.5 bln in March as importers continued to front-run tariffs. This is likely to weigh on Q1 GDP revisions.

There is still an expectation of positive growth in Q2, but recent port data suggest both imports and exports have contracted significantly. “We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of trade tracker Vizion, in a CNBC article. That's going to boost recession worries.

Yields are under pressure after a strong 10-year auction with good domestic and foreign interest. Weakness in stocks is providing additional support for Treasuries. Softer yields are putting some pressure on the dollar.

Balance of Trade expanded to a record wide -$140.5 bln in March, outside expectations of -$136.7 bln, versus a revised -$123.2 bln in February (was -$122.7 bln).

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 1.2 points to a seven-month low of 46.0 in May, below expectations of 50.2, versus 49.1 in April. It was the third consecutive print below 50, indicating pessimism.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$50.06 (+1.50%)
5-Day Change: +$58.04 (+1.75%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +48.71

Gold reached two-week highs above $3,400, boosted by renewed risk aversion associated with tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The dollar index weakened further within its recent range, providing some additional lift for the yellow metal.



More than 61.8% of the recent correction has now been retraced, and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $3,433.62 has come within sight. Penetration of this level would lend confidence to the bullish scenario that calls for further attacks on the $3,500 zone.

Pending new record highs, focus would shift to $3,575.04 based on a Fibonacci extension. Such a move would also lend further credence to the longer-term $4,000 objective.

A new Gallup poll has gold supplanting stocks/mutual funds as the second-best long-term investment. Real estate remained at the top of the list for a twelfth straight year.

Of those surveyed, 23% picked gold as the best investment, up from 18% last year. Only 16% said stocks/mutual funds were the best long-term investment, down from 22% in 2024.

At least one major distributor noted stronger customer buying in April. "At FideliTrade, buying during the month increased enough to match the customer selling. This has not happened in over a year," according to their newsletter.

Heraeus reports that investment demand remains robust, citing a 170% year-over-year increase in bar and coin demand in Q1. This is offset to a large degree by a marked drop in jewelry demand associated with record-high prices.

The low from early in today's U.S. session at $3,375.20 marks initial support. Secondary support is at $3,326.29 (today's Asian low).  The rising 20-day moving average is at $3,291.18 today and should climb above $3,300 this week.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.532 (+1.64%)
5-Day Change: +$0.152 (+0.46%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +16.51

Silver is back above $33, buoyed by strength in gold and a weaker dollar. The white metal is defying ongoing trade and global growth worries, but the market has struggled above $33 in recent weeks.



Last week's high at $33.471 protects the high from the previous week at $33.662. Beyond that, formidable barriers are marked by the high for the year at $34.543 (28-Mar) and the 22-year high from October at $34.853.

Failure to sustain gains above $33 would leave silver vulnerable to a retreat below $32. The convergence of the 50- and 20-day MAs at $32.661/551 offers a good intervening barrier ahead of Monday's low at $32.009.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold regains $3,300 on rising geopolitical tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile on Sunday that struck near Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion airport. The famed Iron Dome defense system failed to intercept the projectile. Israel has vowed retaliation.

Also over the weekend, Israel's security cabinet voted unanimously to ramp up operations in Gaza. The plan is now to capture and reoccupy the entire Gaza Strip.

"The plan will include, among other things, the capture of the Strip and holding the territories, moving the Gazan population south for its defence, denying Hamas the ability to distribute humanitarian supplies, and powerful attacks against Hamas," the official said.

The UN has scheduled a high-level meeting for June to discuss a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A couple of weeks ago, UN Secretary-General Guterres worried that “the promise of a two-state solution is at risk of vanishing altogether." That opportunity may indeed be gone.

President Trump continues to suggest that deals are in the offing with some key trading partners. He also hinted at walking back tariffs on China during an interview on Meet the Press. “At some point, I’m going to lower them, because otherwise, you could never do business with them, and they want to do business very much,” Trump said.

However, Trump indicated he had no plans at this time to speak directly with Xi Jinping. This has the market worried that the trade war between the U.S. and China will continue for some time.


S&P Global Services PMI was revised down to 1 17-month low of 50.8 in the final read for April, versus 51.4 flash and 54.4 in March.

Services ISM rose 0.8 points to 51.6 in April, above expectations of 50.2, versus 50.8 in March. Prices jumped 4.2 points to a six-month high of 65.1, versus 60.9 in March.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$72.53 (+2.24%)
5-Day Change: -$27.19 (-0.81%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +45.18

Gold rebounded back above $3,300, buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent trade uncertainty, and a softer dollar. The yellow metal is up more than 2% to start the week.



Last week, the yellow metal notched its first lower weekly close in four. Today's price action remains confined to last week's range thus far, with a minor chart point at $3,323.15 protecting the more important $3,351.87 level.

Penetration of the latter would constitute a more than 50% retracement of the correction off the $3,495.89 all-time high from 22-Apr. At that point, focus would shift to the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels at $3,384.74 and $3,433.62, respectively.

Recent losses are considered corrective within the dominant uptrend. Successive violations of these resistance levels heighten the likelihood of further attacks on the $3,500 zone. Above that, the next Fibonacci objective is at $3,575.04.

Goldman Sachs believes gold will continue to outperform silver due to ongoing central bank demand. Official sector demand has increased fivefold since Russian assets were frozen in 2022, and that trend seems likely to continue.

"With Chinese solar production now slowing amid oversupply, high recession risk, and central bank gold buying remaining strong in 2025, we expect gold to continue out-glittering silver," the bank said.

Goldman believes gold is in a structural bull market with potential to $3,700 by year-end, and $4,000 by mid-2026. If the U.S. slips into recession, safe-haven flows could drive gold to $3,880 this year.

On the downside, first supports are $3,300.00 and 3,289.15. The latter is bolstered by the midpoint of today's range at $3,280.43 and protects today's Asian low at $3,239.98.

Silver is trading higher to start the week, underpinned by renewed strength in gold and a softer dollar. However, the white metal's recent struggles above $33 suggest that at least the short-term tone is consolidative in the upper half of this year's range.



Ongoing tariff uncertainty and concerns about oversupply in the solar market are seen as headwinds for silver. So too are fading prospects for a Fed rate cut this summer, despite pressure from the White House for monetary easing.

A failure to reclaim the 33-handle would bode well for further tests below $32. Last week's low at $31.762 corresponds closely with an important retracement level and the 100-day moving average. A push below the $31.763/727/715 area would shift focus to the convergence of the next tier of Fibonacci support and the 200-day MA at $31.124/114.

Fresh five-week highs above $34.662 are needed to return focus to the high for the year at $34.543 and the more important 22-year high from October at $34.853.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold extends to the downside as solid earnings and trade optimism sap the haven bid

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk appetite remains robust despite yesterday's weak advance Q1 GDP print. Amid generally strong corporate earnings, there is a growing belief that growth weakness in the first three months of the year was a one-off event associated with tariff front-running.

Thus far, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 is 10.1%. That's above the 10-year average, and analysts remain optimistic about the whole year despite the intensified trade uncertainty that began early in Q2.

Three Senate Republicans joined Democrats in an attempt to thwart President Trump's tariff agenda by ending the "national emergency." They failed, but only after VP Vance broke a tie in favor of the White House.

Markets remain optimistic about trade deals that are in the works with some of America's key trading partners. There even seems to be some movement with China. "The U.S. has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to hold discussions on the tariff issue," according to a Weibo post linked to Chinese state media.

"They sell us about five times more than we sell them. So their factories are closing down as we speak," said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He reinforces a point that I've been making since the trade war kicked off: China needs access to our consumers more than we need access to theirs.

Massive numbers of idle workers in China create potential for political unrest. That's the last thing the CCP wants.

Bessent went on to point out that orders for the upcoming holidays are typically placed around this time. "If those orders aren't placed, it could be devastating for the Chinese," he said.

The U.S. is pushing for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine to allow for progress toward a lasting peace. "We had 22 concrete terms that (Ukraine) agreed to. What they want... and what they have is a very comprehensive and permanent ceasefire that leads to a peace treaty. When I mean comprehensive, sea, air, land infrastructure for at least 30 days... It could build to an important peace initiative," said U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.

The U.S. and Ukraine signed a deal that grants America access to Ukraine’s vast strategic resources. The agreement is important to the U.S., as many rare earth minerals were previously imported from China.

While the deal does not include any specific security guarantee, it behooves the U.S. to protect those resources.  “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” said Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Challenger Layoffs tumbled 62% to 105.4k in April, well below analyst expectations, versus 275.2k in March.  “Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month. Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending,” Andrew Challenger.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 16k to 241k in the week ended 26-Apr, above expectations of 225k, versus a revised  223k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose 83k to 1,916k in the 19-Apr week from 1,833k in the previous week.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 50.2 in the final April print, versus a preliminary read of 50.7, and unchanged from 50.2 in March. "Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs," said S&P Global.

Manufacturing ISM fell to a five-month low of 48.7 in April, above expectations of 47.8, versus 49.0 in March. Prices rose to 69.8 from 69.4 in March.

Construction Spending fell 0.5% in March, below expectations of +0.3%, versus a revised +0.6% in February (was +0.7%).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$66.96 (-2.04%)
5-Day Change: -$137.58 (-4.11%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,285.07 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.85

Gold remains in corrective mode as heightened optimism on trade, robust corporate earnings, and perhaps a glimmer of hope for a ceasefire and ultimately peace in Ukraine sap the haven bid. The dollar index also rebounded to a three-week high, applying additional pressure to the yellow metal.



I also think speculative sellers took advantage of thin market conditions with parts of Asia and most of Europe closed for May Day/Labor Day holidays. There is scope to see at least some of these losses retraced.

While gold has retreated nearly $300 from the record high set just last week around $3,500, the yellow metal posted a 5.3% monthly gain for April. It was the fourth straight monthly gain of the year. It's worth noting again that gold hasn't seen more than two consecutive monthly losses in over two years.

Recent commentary suggested the breach of support at $3,269.62/65.55 would set up a test of the 20-day MA and the $3,200 zone. We can consider those corrective objectives satisfied, but a close below the 20-day at $3,241.80 would leave the downside vulnerable.

Trades below $3,200 would shift focus to Fibonacci support at $3,165.84 (61.8% of the rally from $2,961.83 to $3,495.89). Below that, the rising 50-day MA comes in at $3,087.73 and corresponds closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Former support at $3,265.55/69.62 now defines resistance. The halfway back point of the decline now comes in at $3,340.50 with an important chart point at $3,366.18 (25-Apr high). This area must be cleared to return confidence to the underlying uptrend.

I do think recent losses are indeed corrective. Billionaire John Paulson agrees, predicting "high $4,000 range" within three years. "As central banks and people look to put their money in a more stable source... I think gold will increase its position in the world," he said.

Silver fell to a three-week low, weighed by losses in gold and a stronger dollar. However, trade optimism provides some underpinning, and the white metal is already back above the midpoint of today's range and the 20-day moving average.



Important support at $31.715/711 marked by an important retracement level and the 100-day MA successfully contained the downside, but further losses can not be ruled out. A breach of $31.715/711 would bode well for a challenge of $31.110/086, where the halfway back point of the April rally corresponds with the 200-day MA.

Short-term action in silver is likely to be volatile as trade negotiations and gold's correction play out. A move back above $33 would ease pressure on the downside, but last week's high at $33.662 provides a significant barrier ahead of key highs from March and October at $34.543 and $34.853


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold continues to consolidate above short-term support

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The first look at U.S. Q1 GDP came in weaker than expected, but not nearly as bad as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted (see yesterday's comment). Growth in the first three months of the year contracted by 0.3%, the first negative print since Q1 2022.

As expected, tariff front-running weighed significantly on growth. Imports jumped 41.3% in Q1, resulting in a huge $321.7 bln draw on net exports.

While the tariff situation remains fluid, the front-running is probably behind us, so it is likely that growth will rebound in Q2. Subsequent adjustments to Q1 could still result in positive growth.

Inflation indications within the GDP report were hotter than expected, but more important PCE inflation cooled to 2.3% in March, from 2.7% in February. The combination of weaker growth and some improvement in the Fed's preferred inflation measure casts a more dovish light heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

The Fed is still expected to hold steady in May, but prospects for a 25 bps cut in June edged up to 63.8% from 59.8% yesterday and 55.5% a week ago. The implied rate for year-end is 3.3875%, favoring just under 100 bps in easing.

Ukrainian sources say they expect to sign a deal with the U.S. to provide access to strategic minerals in exchange for ongoing military support. It's unclear at this point how the deal might impact progress toward a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 4.2% in the week ended 25-Apr, following a 12.7% decline in the previous week. It was, in fact, the third straight weekly decline. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked down to 6.89% from a 9-week high of 6.90% in the previous week.

ADP Employment Survey showed a private payrolls increase of 62k in April, below expectations of 124k, versus a revised 147k in March (was 155k). The takeaway is a slight downside risk to Friday's NFP report.

Q1 GDP (advance) tumbled to -0.3%, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +2.4% in Q4'24. The chain price index jumped to 3.7%, above expectations of 3.1%, versus 2.3% in Q4.

Civilian ECI was steady at 0.9% in Q1, in line with expectations, versus +0.9% in Q4. Annualized ECI moderated to +3.6% from +3.8% in Q4.

Personal Income rose 0.1% in March, below expectations of 0.4%, versus 0.8% in February. 

PCE rose 0.6% in March, in line with expectations, versus +0.4% in February. The chain price index rose 0.1%, resulting in a 2.3% annualized rate, down from 2.7% in February.

Chicago PMI fell 3.0 points to 44.6 in April, below expectations of 45.5, versus 47.6 in March.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$44.97 (-1.36%)
5-Day Change: +$8.10 (+0.25%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.15

Gold remains defensive at the low end of the recent range, weighed by recent improvements in risk appetite and signs of moderating inflation. However, the downside is being limited by ongoing uncertainty on tariffs, a negative Q1 GDP print, heightened rate cut expectations, and a generally weak dollar.



The yellow metal is up nearly 6% in April, setting the stage for a fourth consecutive monthly gain. Gold is up nearly 27% year-to-date.

The World Goid Council reports that total demand reached a Q1 record of 1,206 tonnes, led by a resurgence in ETF inflows. "A sharp revival in gold ETF inflows fuelled a more-than-doubling of total investment demand to 552t (+170% y/y); its highest since Q1’22," according to the latest Gold Demand Trends report.

Central bank demand slowed to 244 tonnes from 365 tonnes in Q4'24, but was "comfortably within the quarterly range of the last three years," according to the WGC.

Jewelry demand also slowed, weighed by record-high prices.

Despite tariff uncertainty in Q1, technology demand remained strong at 80.45 tonnes, down slightly from 82.88 tonnes in Q4. While the Trump administration ended up exempting gold, who knows if that might change?

Bar and coin demand moderated slightly to 325.4 tonnes, versus 325.99 tonnes in the previous quarter. Demand from Chinese investors was especially strong.

Meanwhile, total supply tightened by 7% q/q to 1,206 tonnes on softer mine production and weaker recycling as consumers held out for higher prices.

While gold eked out a new low for the week of $3,271.82, the support zone defined by the recent lows at $3,274.47/69.62/65.55 is further reinforced. Should this area give way, a downside extension to the 20-day MA at $3,247.44 and $3,200 would become likely.

Today's post-GDP high at $3,314.89 protects the Asian high at $3,323.15. These additional tiers of resistance now stand in front of the high for the week at $3,351.87. A breach of the halfway back point of last week's decline at $3,380.72 must still be negated to return confidence to the uptrend.

Silver fell to a nine-session low of $32.219 just before this morning's data showed the U.S. economy contracted in Q1. The white metal subsequently recovered into the range, but worries about weak global growth and demand destruction continue to worry the markets.

 

Heightened expectations that the Fed will resume easing this summer are keeping the dollar on defense. That, along with hopes for more Chinese stimulus, is helping to underpin silver.

Support noted in yesterday's comment at $32.134/125 was left unthreatened. The still-falling 20-day MA is at $32.115 today, and still reinforces this area.

The failure to sustain gains above $33 and truly challenge key highs above $34 is already worrying to the bull camp. A short-term retreat below $32 from here would pave the way for further downside retracement toward $31.110/070, where the halfway back point of the April rally corresponds with the 200-day MA.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold continues to consolidate last week's runup to $3,500, awaiting fresh inputs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The first 100 days of Trump 2.0 are being assessed, and as you might imagine, the grades vary wildly. President Trump delivered quickly on border security, but fulfilling economic and geopolitical pledges has proven more difficult.

A ceasefire in Gaza earlier in the year could not be sustained, and the war in Ukraine rages on. Russian President Putin unilaterally declared a 72-hour ceasefire to begin on 08-May, but a permanent ceasefire, and ultimately the peace deal Trump wants, remains elusive. That's keeping geopolitical tensions elevated.

On the trade front, on-again-off-again tariffs have stoked uncertainty and frayed long-standing relationships. While Trump's goal is to reduce the trade deficit, massive front-running of tariffs has actually had the opposite effect.

The advance trade balance for March just came out today, and it was a record -$162.0 bln. That print was well outside market expectations and exceeded the previous record from January by -$7.4 bln.

More recently, some degree of optimism has surfaced about a handful of key trade deals. While this has resulted in improved risk appetite, the erratic implementation of tariffs and ongoing uncertainty about how tariffs will impact inflation, growth, and monetary policy are keeping global markets on edge.

The surge in imports has the market anticipating that growth slowed sharply in Q1.  Advance Q1 GDP comes out tomorrow, and median expectations are +0.4%, versus +2.4% in Q4'24.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has been painting a much grimmer picture since mid-quarter, with the latest reading for Q1 at -2.7%. This is attributed to the widening deficit and weaker consumer spending, but inputs have been volatile, so there are some expectations that GDPNow is overstating the contraction.

If Wednesday's Q1 GDP print is closer to GDPNow than market expectations, doubt about Trump's policies will intensify. Stocks are likely to suffer even if rate cut expectations grow. At this point, Fed funds futures continue to predict 100 bps in easing by year-end, with the first 25 bps cut likely in June or July.

In an interesting turn, Trump may have inadvertently helped the liberal party remain in power in Canada. The country had been supremely dissatisfied with the previous liberal government of Justin Trudeau, prompting him to resign in January. The liberal party made Mark Carney their leader, and he served as Prime Minister until a snap election could be held. 

Canada seemed poised for a resounding swing to the right. However, Trump's tariffs, demands for more military spending, and gibes about making Canada the 51st state swung the polls back to the left. The liberals appear to have won yesterday's election by a slim margin. Carney won a seat in the House of Commons and is expected to remain as PM.

Balance of Trade (advance) -$162.0 bln in March, outside expectations of -$143.0 bln, versus a revised -$147.8 bln (was -$147.9 bln). 

FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.1% in February to 437.3, versus a revised 436.7 in January (was 436.5). It was the twelfth straight monthly increase.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-cities) rose 0.7% in February to 335.1, versus a revised 332.7 in January (was 332.6). The record high was set in July at 335.8. The annual pace of appreciation decelerated slightly to 4.5% from 4.7% y/y in January.

Consumer Confidence continued to erode in April, falling 7.9 points to 86.0. That's below expectations of 87.2, versus a positive revised 93.9 in March (was 92.9). It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline to the lowest print since April 2020.

JOLTS Job Openings declined 288k in March to 7,192k, below expectations of 7,480k, versus a revised 7,748k in February (was 7,568k).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$31.38 (-0.94%)
5-Day Change: -$74.15 (-2.19%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,281.97 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.80

Gold is trading lower within Monday's range, which was within Friday's range. The yellow metal appears to be consolidating last week's runup to $3,500 and awaiting new economic data and fresh info on tariffs.


 
If tomorrow's advance Q1 GDP print undershoots market expectations by a wide margin, haven interest in gold would reignite. However, be aware of the potential for another bout of deleveraging pressure if stocks tank.

Such a move would be seen as a buying opportunity, but the recent lows at $3,274.4, $3,269.62, and $3,265.55 are not secure yet. A test of the $3,200 zone would have to be considered.

Ongoing weakness in the dollar provides some underpinning for gold, and a weak GDP print would spark more dovish Fed expectations. Hotter than expected PCE inflation could see rate cut expectations trimmed somewhat, but probably not significantly.

A short-term rebound above the halfway back point of last week's decline at $3,380.72 would return a measure of confidence to the uptrend. Yesterday's high at $3,351.87 and Friday's high at $3,366.18 provide intervening barriers.

Silver set new highs for the week in early U.S. trading, but last week's highs at $33.662/655 remain well protected. A weak dollar and expectations of further Chinese stimulus provide some support, but the market is waiting for U.S. growth and inflation data before it takes a run at the key highs above $34.



Some significant breakthrough on the trade front, and perhaps specifically with China, is probably needed to truly set silver free. If that happens, the cycle high from last October at $34.853 would likely be exceeded.

A convincing move above an important Fibonacci level at $35.217 would shift focus to $37.430 initially, but $40 would look pretty attractive at that point.

On the downside, yesterday's low at $32.696 and the 50-day moving average at $32.651 protect more important support at 32.188/134/125, where the 20-day moving average and a couple of recent lows converge.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.