Blog posts tagged with 'silver'

10/29/2024

Gold sets new record highs after brief and limited correction

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With just one week until the U.S. election, most polls remain within the margin of error. Many believe the stakes are extraordinarily high, and the likely results remain uncertain.  

The recent Japanese election heightened political uncertainty with the LDP party losing its majority for the first time since 2009. "Voters have handed us a harsh verdict and we have to humbly accept this result," said PM Shigeru Ishiba.

While Ishiba has pledged he will remain PM, he'll need to secure enough votes in a special session of the Diet slated for 11-Nov. Ishiba will attempt to build a coalition over the next couple of weeks.

The yen remains on the offer amid concerns that the BoJ's tightening campaign is on hold until the political situation is sorted out. The BoJ will announce policy on Thursday and is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%. 

China is considering adding C¥ 10 trillion ($1.4 trillion) in new debt over the next three years to juice its flagging economy. The new fiscal plan could be approved as soon as next week. Commodities appear hopeful.

U.S. JOLTS Job Openings declined -418k to 7,443k in September, below expectations of 8,000k, versus 7,861k (was 8,040k). There are now just 1.1 job openings for each job seeker.

U.S. Advance Economic Indicators revealed a $14.0 bln widening of the international trade deficit to $108.2 bln in September, outside expectations of -$95.5 bln, versus -$94.2 bln in August. Advance wholesale inventories contracted by 0.1%, while retail inventories grew by 0.8%. 

The Q3 GDP contribution from net exports fell from +0.04% to -0.38%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast tumbled to 2.8%, down from 3.3% on Friday.

U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities dipped -0.3% to 334.7 in August, down from the all-time high set in July at 335.8. The annualized pace of home price appreciation slowed to a 10-month low of 5.2%, versus 5.9% in July.

U.S. FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.3% to 427.0 in August, versus an upward revised 425.8 in July. With mortgage rates back on the rise, expect supply to remain tight and prices near record highs.

U.S. Consumer Sentiment surged to 108.7 in October, above expectations of 99.1, versus a revised 99.2 in September (was 98.7). “Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$2.04 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$20.49 (+0.75%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,769.89
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,769.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.93

Gold has extended to new record highs, buoyed by haven bids associated with geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty. The recent corrective phase was short-lived and limited in terms of magnitude, suggesting the dominant uptrend remains strong.



Revived hopes of additional Chinese stimulus provide an additional tailwind, even though Q3 gold demand in China was pretty dismal according to Bloomberg. The weak economy, ongoing concerns stemming from the property crisis, and record-high prices led to a 22% plunge in demand. 

Jewelry demand was particularly hard hit, falling 29% to 130 tons. Demand for bars and coins fell 9% to 69 tons.

With the world's largest buyer of gold largely sidelined, again you have to be impressed by the market's resilience. I imagine there's some pent-up demand just waiting to be unleashed, particularly with monetary and fiscal stimulus targeting disinflation.

Reuters reports that Indian buyers "brushed off record high prices" ahead of this week's Dhanteras and Diwali festivals. "People are still into gold big time, even with prices at record highs during Dhanteras. With gold giving better returns than the stock market, there's been solid demand for coins and bars," said Saurabh Gadgil, chairman of PNG Jewellers.
 
Today's move to new all-time highs lends credence to the bullish scenario targeting $2,810.38 based on a Fibonacci objective. The $2,800.00/$,2,804.73 level marks a minor intervening attraction.

Former resistance at $2,757.95 now marks initial support. Secondary support at $2,748.17/$2,747.38 protects the intraday low at $2,740.53.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +0.466 (+1.38%)
5-Day Change: -$0.549 (-1.58%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $34.853
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +52.20

Silver surged back above $34 on hopes that additional Chinese stimulus will boost industrial demand. While the recent cycle high at $34.853 remains intact, fresh record highs in gold are helping to underpin the white metal.



More than 61.8% of the recent corrective losses have now been retraced, favoring a retest of last week's high at $34.853. An eventual penetration would bode well for the anticipated test of the $35.217 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from $49.752 to $11.703).

First support is now $34.000/$33.988. A minor level at 33.893 stands in front of today's overseas low at $33.627.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

10/28/2024

Gold and silver continue to consolidate ahead of next week's election

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel conducted precision strikes against military targets within Iran over the weekend. The strikes were retaliation for Iran's 01-Oct missile barrage against Israel, which was retaliation for the killing of Iranian Republican Guard, Hezbollah, and Hamas leaders.

Arguably Israel showed restraint. Iran said the damage was limited. Is this the opportunity to end the retaliatory cycle and dial down regional tensions? The market seems hopeful.

“It looks like they didn't hit anything other than the military targets. My hope is this is the end,” said President Biden.

Already elevated political uncertainty was further stoked by Sunday's snap election in Japan. The long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party was severely rebuked by voters and lost control of the lower house for the first time in 15 years.

Recently elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's gamble to consolidate power and form a government backfired. While Ishiba has pledged to remain PM, gains by the LDP's main rival CDPJ party are going to make the formation of a coalition government challenging.

Japan's political uncertainty may force the BoJ to pause its tightening campaign. The yen tumbled in reaction to set a 13-week low against the dollar before rebounding in later trading. The Nikkei 225 closed up nearly 2% on hopes of slower monetary tightening.

The U.S. Dallas Fed General Business Activity Index rose six points to a 30-month high of -3 in October. While the index has been in contraction territory for more than two years.

Prices paid for raw materials declined 1.9 points to 16.3. It was the second straight monthly decline.

Market focus this week is on PCE inflation on Thursday and October jobs data out on Friday. The chain price index is expected to rise 0.1% m/m, while the market is forecasting a 125k rise in nonfarm payrolls.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -15.17 (-0.55%)
5-Day Change: +$22.04 (+0.81%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,757.95
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,757.95
Weighted Alpha: +39.99

Gold remains within the range that was established last Wednesday. Corrective activity since the $2,757.95 record high was set that day has been very limited, leaving focus on the dominant uptrend.



Israel's limited retaliatory strikes against Iran have not led to renewed Iranian saber-rattling (at least not yet), suggesting regional tensions may have moderated somewhat. Broadly speaking however geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty remain elevated and supportive to gold.

As I noted in commentary last week, gold is agnostically bullish when it comes to next week's election results. Regardless of the winner, half of the country is going to disappointed and perhaps angry.

I expect rhetoric in the media and on social media to be hyperbolic. There are radical fringe elements on both sides that may be incited to political unrest and violence.

A push to new all-time highs would lend credence to the bullish scenario that calls for a challenge of $2,810.38 based on a Fibonacci objective. Beyond that, the $3,000 level looks increasingly attractive.

Citi Bank has raised its three-month projection for gold to $2,800 from $2,700 previously. Citi sees $3,000 gold in the 6 to 12-month timeframe.

“We note that gold and silver have performed extremely well despite weakening China retail physical demand and rising US interest rates since the Fed cut 50 (basis points) and payrolls beat last month,” according to Citi analysts.

Investment demand remains a bullish driver with a net inflow into global ETFs of 14.7 tonnes. It was the second consecutive weekly inflow. 

There have only been five weekly outflows out of the last 24 weeks. The last time there were two straight weekly outflows was in early May. 

The COT report for last week showed the net speculative long position in gold rose by 9.8k to 296.2k contracts from 286.4k in the previous week. It was the second straight weekly increase.

Support marked by Wednesday's low at $2,711.17 has increased in importance. Minor intervening barriers are noted at $2,725.94, $2,717.88 and $2,715.51.

Silver is trading modestly higher within the confines of Friday's range. Recent corrective downticks have attracted buying interest ahead of $33, keeping focus on the dominant uptrend.



A climb back above $34 would bode well for a retest of last week's high at $34.853. Intervening resistance is marked by Thursday's high at $34.285.

The net speculative long position in silver surged 12.4k to 66.4k contracts last week according to the CFTC's COT report. That's the largest net spec long position since 28-Feb'20.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

This year's rally to 12-year highs has got to be putting considerable pressure on the large commercial short potion in silver. If those commercial shorts start covering, it would be a substantial tailwind for the market.

An eventual violation of the $35.217 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from $49.752 to $11.703), could be the trigger for that short covering as it would be suggestive of potential back to the $50 zone.

In the report referenced above, Citi raised its 6 to 12-month forecast for silver from $38 to $40. That makes a good intermediate objective ahead of $50.

Last week's low at $33.109 now protects $33.00 and previous resistance at $32.700/657. Buying strategies remain highlighted.

Palladium continues to charge higher after the U.S. lobbied the G7 to impose additional sanctions on Russian exports of the precious metal. Spot palladium is up nearly 15% since the middle of last week and is trading at new highs for the year. Palladium gains are providing some support for platinum as well. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

10/24/2024

Gold consolidates recent losses within Wednesday's range

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Doubts about how aggressively the Fed might ease into year-end are on the rise. While a 25 bps cut to the Fed funds rate in November remains baked into the cake, the trade is now less sure about December.

With much of the incoming data suggesting a resilient economy and some worries of a "mission accomplished" moment on inflation, the Fed's policy path has turned somewhat cloudy.

The Beige Book for the upcoming FOMC meeting that was released yesterday showed economic activity was stable or increased modestly in nine of twelve Districts since early September. Economic activity in the Philly, Atlanta, and Minneapolis Districts declined only slightly.

Half the Districts saw employment increases, while the remainder showed little or no change."Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth."

Inflation "continued to moderate" in most Districts, but the prices of "some food products, such as eggs and dairy, were reported to have increased more sharply." Increasing price sensitivity among consumers was noted in most Districts, but that wasn't reflected in the September retail sales data.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated she is unwilling to declare victory over inflation. "We have made good progress but inflation is still running above the 2% objective," she said.

Treasury yields have been on the rise for a month. With the 10-year yield reaching three-month highs, so too has the dollar index. U.S. stocks seemed to finally take notice on Wednesday, prompting a risk aversion sell-off. The Dow fell more than 400 points on Wednesday, its worst day in over a month.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yield

On Wednesday the BoC slashed rates by 50 bps, its largest rate cut since the COVID crisis. Amid persistent growth risks in Europe, particularly Germany the largest economy in the EU, talk of an accelerated ECB easing path has intensified.

The prospect for interest rate differentials to rotate more favorably toward the U.S. could be an ongoing tailwind for the greenback. The upside potential for the dollar index is back to the 106.00 level.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 227k in the week ended 19-Oct, below expectations of 244k, versus a revised 242k in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1,897k for the 12-Oct week, from a revised 1,869k in the previous week.

U.S. New Home Sales rose 4.1% to a 0.738M pace in September, above expectations of 0.718M, versus a negative revised 0.709M in August (was 0.716M). The pullback in mortgage rates from last October's 23-year highs has been generally supportive this year, but the more recent rebound is likely to weigh on October sales.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Flash) rose to 47.8 in October, above expectations of 47.5, versus 47.3 in September.

S&P Global Services PMI (Flash) edged up to 55.3 in October, above expectations of 55.0, versus 55.2 in September.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to  -0.28 in September, versus a negative revised -0.01 (was 0.12) in August. The index has been in negative territory for seven of nine months so far this year.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$21.22 (+0.78%)
5-Day Change: +$43.91 (+1.63%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,757.95
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,757.95
Weighted Alpha: +39.64

Gold has rebounded from yesterday's retreat, but remains confined to Wednesday's range. Today's price action tempers the technical significance of yesterday's key reversal, but I wouldn't completely discount that chart pattern just yet.

 

More than half of yesterday's decline has been retraced, but I'd like to see a close above $2,734.56 to suggest we're more likely to see new record highs than a challenge of the $2,700 level on the downside.

Initial support is well-defined at $2,715.50/$2,711.17 and protects the $2,700.00/$2,692.49 zone. Penetration of the latter would shift focus to the 20-day moving average at $2,670.14. The 20-day has been a pretty consistent attraction during the corrective phases of this rally.

Gold has recorded just a single close below the 100-day moving average in more than a year. That occurred on 14-Feb, was slightly more than a dollar, and lasted just one day. That's a strong testament to the strength of this rally.

Fresh record highs above $2,757.95 would bode well for a challenge of the previously established $2,810.38 Fibonacci objective. 

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +0.435 (+1.29%)
5-Day Change: +$1.989 (+6.28%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $34.853
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +49.57

Silver extended corrective losses in U.S. trading today. Scope remains for a challenge of the $33 zone, but I am seeing some buying interest at the lower end of today's range.

 

A convincing move back above $34 would ease short-term pressure on the downside and return credence to the dominant uptrend. The midpoint of the corrective decline is at $34.087.

A breach of this level would favor a challenge of the 12-year high from Tuesday at $34.853. New cycle highs would bode well for the anticipated test of the $35.217 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from $49.752 to $11.703).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

10/23/2024

Gold and silver turn corrective

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: A memo released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned that Russia and Iran may seek to stoke political unrest after the upcoming U.S. election. The memo also suggested "China may be more willing to meddle in certain Congressional races."

I worry the antagonists' goals to increase division, foster doubt about the election results, and hinder the peaceful transfer of power will be far too easy. There are elements aligned with both political camps in the U.S. that are already predisposed to unrest – and perhaps violence – if their preferred candidate loses.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes Chinese efforts to stimulate its economy have thus far been insufficient. "Our view has been that raising consumer spending in China as a share of GDP is really important, along with measures to address problems in the property sector," Yellen said. 

"So far I would say I haven't really heard any policies on the Chinese side that address that."

The IMF did not factor Chinese stimulus into its latest forecasts because recent jawboning lacked detail. This has been a consistent gripe from the market as well.

The FT reports that the stakes for China and its leader Xi Jinping "could hardly be higher." Failure to act decisively to address growth risks and the property crisis "could throw China into a deflationary spiral similar to that of Japan after the bursting of its real estate bubble in the 1990s, from which it has taken decades to recover. 

The Bank of Canada slashed its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.75%, as was widely expected. It was the fourth consecutive BoC policy meeting that ended with a rate cut. “We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2 per cent target and we want to keep it close to the target,” said Governor Tiff Macklem.

Signs of economic weakness and low inflation in Europe reportedly has the ECB concerned. Citing multiple sources, a Reuters article contends the central bank is contemplating an easing path that would take rates below neutral.

U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications fell 6.7% in the week ended 18-Oct, versus a 17.0% decline in the previous week. It was the fourth consecutive weekly decline as higher mortgage rates continued to sap demand. The 30-year fixed rate remained at a 10-week high of 6.52%.

U.S. Existing Home Sales fell 1.0% to a 3.840M pace in October, below expectations of 3.853M, versus a positive revised 3.880M in September. It's the lowest existing home sales pace in 14 years, weighed by persistently high mortgage rates.

The Beige Book for the November FOMC meeting comes out this afternoon.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +2.18 (+0.08%)
5-Day Change: +$42.41 (+1.59%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,757.95
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,757.95
Weighted Alpha: +38.19

Gold set a new record high at $2,757.95 before retreating to trade lower on the day. The higher high and lower low versus yesterday sets up a potential key reversal.



Recent corrective activity has been quickly met with renewed buying interest. We haven't seen more than a single lower close in two weeks. However, a confirmed key reversal would suggest there is at least scope for a more protracted correction.

Initial support is noted at $2,700.00/$2,692.49 and protects previous resistance at $2,684.45. The 20-day moving average comes in at $2,666.91.

The latest jumbo rate cut, this time from the Bank of Canada, is clear evidence that most of the major central banks are on an easing path. The prospect that the ECB will accelerate rate cuts to achieve a truly accommodative stance is reflective of rising growth risks and worries about disinflation.

The trade continues to favor 50 bps of Fed easing spread over the next two meetings. However, those bets have been tapered recently amid signs of economic resilience and worries about revived inflation.

A rebound above the midpoint of today's range at $2,734.56 would ease short-term pressure on the downside and favor another round of record highs. The previously established $2,810.38 Fibonacci objective remains valid with today's high at $2,757.95 defining a solid intervening barrier.

Silver has turned corrective after the multi-day rally stalled shy of $35. The white metal is off more than 1% and has set new lows for the week.



Initial supports at $33.779 (yesterday's low) and $33.573 (Monday's low) have been exceeded, suggesting potential back to the $33 zone before renewed buying interest is likely to emerge. Secondary support is well defined by former resistance at $32.700/657.

While Chinese President Xi Jinping may be reluctant to unleash a new barrage of stimulus, the FT points out that the Chinese people "have become accustomed to constant improvements in living standards" in recent decades.

Xi and the CCP are going to have to make some hard decisions in the weeks ahead or face potential social unrest. More stimulus seems like the lesser evil. Decisive market-supporting accommodations would bode well for the perpetuation of the uptrend in silver.

A rebound above $34.19 would ease pressure on the downside and favor further tests of the $35.00 level and a true challenge of the critical $35.217 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from $49.752 to $11.703). Yesterday's high at $34.853 provides intervening resistance.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

10/22/2024

Gold sets new highs once again as silver nears $35

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Top secret documents leaked in the U.S. seemed to confirm that Israel is preparing for a retaliatory strike on Iran that will undoubtedly lead to another Iranian strike on Israel. The weekend attack by Iranian proxy Hezbollah on the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further raises the stakes. 

Israel continues to strike Hamas positions in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Attacks on Hezbollah's financial network are a new twist designed to interdict the terrorist group's financing mechanisms that largely flow through Iran.

Israel and Iran seem to be hurdling toward a broader regional war, keeping markets on edge.

The IMF has trimmed its 2025 global growth outlook to 3.2% from 3.3% in July. The IMF has a brighter outlook for U.S. growth with an upgrade of 0.3% to 2.2%.

Nonetheless, the first sentence of the executive summary says it all: "Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming." The five-year forecast at 3.1% "remains mediocre compared with the prepandemic average."

Tepid growth prospects fortify global easing expectations, but the IMF warned that price risks persist: "Further disruptions to the disinflation process, potentially triggered by new spikes in commodity prices amid persistent geopolitical tensions, could prevent central banks from easing monetary policy, which would pose significant challenges to fiscal policy and financial stability," according to the report.

The resilience of the U.S. economy and risks of revived inflation has prompted the trade to reduce bets for an additional 50 bps of Fed easing into year-end. A 25 bps cut in November remains widely anticipated, but doubts are creeping in about December.

FedSpeak from Daly and Schmid reiterated the mantra of data dependency. Jeffrey Schmid, the new KC Fed president is a centrist and will be a voter in 2025. He said he favors a "cautious and gradual approach to policy," preferring to “avoid outsized moves.”

The Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index rose 7 points to -14 in October, inside expectations of -17, versus -21 in September. The index has been in contraction territory for nearly a year.

"Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −18 to −8, new orders rose from −23 to −17, and employment increased from −22 to −17," according to the Richmond Fed.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$19.12 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: +$76.85 (+2.89%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,743.84
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,743.84
Weighted Alpha: +39.85

Gold has set new record highs once again. The yellow metal has set all-time highs for four sessions in a row, driven by rising geopolitical risks and intensifying political uncertainty in the U.S. just two weeks out from the election.

 

A Reuter's reporter asked me this morning how gold will react based on who wins the U.S. presidential race. I believe gold is agnostically bullish. Half the population will be incredibly disappointed by the outcome regardless of the winner.

This disappointment has the potential to morph into political unrest as the results are questioned, and almost certain legal battles play out. It seems the U.S. is destined to remain bitterly divided politically for some time to come.

The next upside target at $2,810.38 remains highlighted based on a Fibonacci projection. The $2,800 level is deemed an intervening psychological attraction.

Short-term corrective downticks have attracted buying interest and that's likely to continue. A more protracted correction could be triggered by a Middle East cease-fire or signs that inflation is reigniting, which could cause a shift in easing expectations.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +0.605 (+1.79%)
5-Day Change: +$3.215 (+10.21%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $34.711
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $34.711
Weighted Alpha: +43.76

Silver continues its march higher in the wake of last week's upside breakout above $32.700. The white metal has traded higher in eight of the past nine sessions and is up more than 10% over the last five.


 
The critical $35.217 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from $49.752 to $11.703) has quickly come within striking distance. A breach of this level would return considerable credence to the long-term uptrend and favor an eventual return to the $50 zone.

Contingent on a breach of $35.217, the $35.997/$36.000 level will become the next upside target based on a Fibonacci projection. Retreats back into the range should continue to be viewed as buying opportunities.  


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.