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Gold sets new record highs as silver extends gains above $34

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has collapsed. More than 400 have reportedly been killed as the IDF struck Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets in the Gaza Strip.

The office of PM Netanyahu released a statement pledging that "Israel will act against Hamas with increasing military force" until its goals are achieved, "including the release of all our hostages — living and dead."

Hamas is believed to still hold 59 hostages in Gaza. Half are feared to have been killed.

Houthi rebels in Yemen reportedly fired a ballistic missile into southern Israel after pledging solidarity with Hamas. The U.S. has vowed to continue striking Houthi targets in Yemen to protect a key shipping channel.

The White House warned that it would hold Iran responsible for any future attacks. “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN,” President Trump posted on Truth Social. 

President Trump is slated to speak with Russian President Putin today about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump is optimistic that Putin will agree to a 30-day ceasefire, allowing for continued negotiations to end the conflict. However, there's a growing sense that Russia is not interested in a deal.

The Fed's two-day FOMC meeting began today. Tomorrow's policy announcement is expected to confirm the Fed remains on hold. This will leave the market to focus on the forward guidance and the economic projections.

A month out from the next ECB meeting, Governing Council member Ollie Rehn is worried about "exceptional uncertainty." He stressed that the central bank is "not pre-committed to any particular rate path.” 

While the drive to boost defense and infrastructure spending in Europe would lift growth, Rehn worries that inflation will rise as well. It is important that the ECB keep its options open.

The lower house of the German Parliament has passed the proposal to adjust the statutory debt brake to allow for €500 bln in new spending. The upper house is expected to vote on the measure on Friday.

German ZEW Investor Confidence nearly doubled in March to a three-year high of 51.6 from 26.0 in February. Optimism that the German spending blitz will be approved is driving confidence.

Housing Starts surged 11.2% to 1.501M in February, well above expectations of 1.378M, versus 1.350M in January. Permits ebbed to 1.456M from 1.473M. Completions slipped to 1.592M from 1.659M.

Import Prices rose 0.4% in February, above expectations of -0.1%, versus a revised +0.4% in January. Export Prices increased 0.1% on expectations of -0.2%, versus +1.3% in January. Trade prices beats may be the early signs of tariff impact.

Industrial Production jumped 0.7% in February, above expectations of +0.2%, versus a negative revised +0.3% in January (was +0.5%). Capacity utilization rose to 78.2% on expectations of 77.8%, versus 77.7% in January.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$22.64 (+0.75%)
5-Day Change: +$115.48 (+3.96%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,036.71
52-Week Range: $2,149.45 - $3,036.71
Weighted Alpha: +40.65

Gold extended to a new round of record highs, driven by the breaking of the ceasefire in Gaza. Ongoing uncertainty on the trade front, signs of stock market strains, and a weak dollar continue to provide additional support.

 

The $3,029.67 Fibonacci objective has been satisfied and exceeded, bringing the $3,049.34 measuring objective within striking distance. Additional credence has been lent to the market's next key level at $3,500.

Citing central bank demand, Doubleline Capital's Jeff Gundlach sees potential to $4,000. “I think gold will make it to $4,000. I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move anticipated by the long consolidation at around $1,800 on gold,” Gundlach said.

An intraday low from early U.S. trading at $3,026.63 marks initial support and protects the more important $3,003.04/$3,000.00 level. Look for the trade to continue seeking buying opportunities on setbacks.

Silver is trading at new five-month highs buoyed by spillover haven buying as gold reaches new record highs. A weak dollar and today's industrial production beat are contributing to the white metal's bid.



Progress in Germany toward freeing up €500 bln in new infrastructure and defense spending is another positive for industrial metals, including silver. New measures by China to boost domestic consumption are also likely to improve demand for silver.

A minor chart point at $34.517 (30-Oct high) provides an intervening barrier ahead of the 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct). Beyond that, the $35.348 high from October 2012 would be in play.

Heraeus reports that the rising price of silver is adversely impacting coin demand. "In February, Perth Mint sales dropped 52% year-on-year to 482 koz, while the US Mint saw a 45% decline to 928 koz," according to the latest issue of the Precious Appraisal.

Heraeus also notes that silver ETFs have seen outflows of 8.5Moz YTD. I wrote in yesterday's comment that spec longs paired positions in the futures market last week. Stronger participation from investors may be needed to drive silver to new cycle highs.

Today's early New York low at $33.896 marks initial support and stands in front of the overseas low at $33.770. Additional supports are noted at $33.340 and $33.000/$32.961.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold remains firm near $3,000, helping to underpin silver

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The BoJ, BoE, SNB, Riksbank, Bank of Taiwan, Bank Indonesia, and the Fed will all announce policy. These policy decisions will be made under a cloud of rising uncertainty as global trade tensions stoke growth risks and worries about revived inflation.

The Fed is widely expected to remain on hold, so focus will be on changes to the economic projections. It seems likely that the 2025 growth projection from December of +2.1% will be nudged lower. Inflation expectations from December were +2.5% for both PCE and core PCE.

President Trump signed the six-month funding bill, averting a partial government shutdown. The bill made it to the President's desk after Congressional democrats chose not to mount a serious challenge to the GOP's agenda.

The OECD revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% in 2024. They trimmed the U.S. growth projection to 2.2% from 2.4%.

According to the OECD report, titled 'Steering through Uncertainty': "Inflationary pressures continue to linger in many economies. At the same time, policy uncertainty has been high and significant risks remain. Further fragmentation of the global economy is a key concern. Higher-than-expected inflation would prompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets."

China has announced ambitious plans to “vigorously boost consumption.” The program will promote wage growth along with measures to free up disposable income.

“By connecting consumer spending to broader social goals like elderly care improvement, childcare support and work-life balance, the plan embeds consumption growth within China’s wider development objectives," according to Xinhua, the official state news agency of the PRC.

The German Parliament is slated to vote on the €500 bln defense and infrastructure spending plan this week. However, a last-minute legal challenge from the far-right threatens to derail – or at least slow – the necessary changes to the 'debt brake.'

NAHB Housing Market Index fell three points to 39 in March from 42 in February. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. “Builders continue to face elevated building material costs that are exacerbated by tariff issues, as well as other supply-side challenges that include labor and lot shortages,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.

Retail Sales rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of +0.6%, versus a revised -1.2% in January (was -0.9%).  Ex-auto rose 0.3% on expectations of +0.4%, versus -0.6% in January (was -0.4%)

Empire State manufacturing index plunged 25.7 points to -20.0 in March, well below market expectations of -2.0, versus 5.7 in February. "Input prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two years, and selling price increases also continued to pick up. Optimism about the outlook waned considerably for a second consecutive month."

Business Inventories rebounded 0.3% in January, in line with expectations, versus -0.2% in December. The inventory/sales ratio rose to 1.37 after falling to a 31-month low of 1.35 in December. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$11.97 (+0.04%)
5-Day Change: +$108.53 (+3.76%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,003.05
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $3,003.05
Weighted Alpha: +38.46

Gold remains well bid after setting fresh record highs above $3,000 on Friday. The yellow metal continues to be underpinned by haven flows and a soft dollar as markets look ahead to this week's Fed decision and economic projections.



Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of 32.7 tonnes last week, led by North American investors. It was the seventh straight weekly inflow and the second largest since the 27-Oct'23 week.

The COT report for last week showed net speculative long positions fell 7.2k to 236.1k contracts from 243.3k in the previous week. It was the fifth straight weekly decline in spec longs.

A breach of Friday's high at $3,003.05 would clear the way for a push to the next Fibonacci objective at $3,029.67. Beyond that, a measuring objective at $3,049.34 attracts.

Friday's low at $2,980.54 has been reinforced by today's London low at $2,982.85. Secondary supports are noted at $2,968.06/67.98 and $2,955.40.

Silver is trading modestly lower, but last week's five-month high above $34 keeps focus on the upside. The white metal continues to be underpinned by gold's strength, new Chinese stimulus, and hopes that the German Parliament will clear the way for massive defense and infrastructure spending.



Last week's COT report showed net speculative long positions jumped 6.2k to a 19-week high of 59.5k contracts, versus 53.3k in the previous week.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

Penetration of Friday's high at $34.041 would bode well for a challenge of the more than 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct). A minor intervening resistance is noted at $34.517 (30-Oct high).

Today's early New York low at $33.495 marks initial support and stands in front of the previous high for the year at $33.340. Secondary supports at $32.961 and $32.728 protect the rising 20-day moving average at $32.531.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold hits $3,000, silver trades with a 34-handle for the first time since October 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets remain on edge as global trade tensions escalate. Uncertainty reigns amid threats of new levies, counter-threats of retaliation, and tariffs on one day and off the next. “I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said.

Mounting risk aversion drove the S&P 500 into correction territory on Thursday. The other major indexes are hovering near the correction threshold as well.

Indications this week that inflation cooled in February did little to relieve market angst. Inflation expectations continue to surge as tariffs kick in. The preliminary one and five-year inflation expectation components of Michigan Sentiment rose to 4.9% and 3.9%.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment and employment expectations continue to erode. The preliminary read on March consumer sentiment plunged 6.8 points to a 28-month low of 57.9.

The Fed is expected to hold steady when they announce policy next week. Amid heightened inflation worries, a June cut is no longer fully priced in. Fed funds futures are now only projecting 67 bps in cuts by year end.

Germany Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced a deal had been reached with the Green Party that likely clears the way for massive proposed defense and infrastructure spending. "Germany is back," said Merz.

China's policymakers will hold a news conference on Monday, presumably to announce new measures to boost domestic consumption. Chinese shares rebounded on hopes for additional stimulus.

Russian President Putin laid out his conditions for a ceasefire with Ukraine after dismissing the U.S.-brokered deal yesterday. “We agree with the proposal to cease hostilities but we have to bear in mind that this ceasefire must be aimed at a long-lasting peace and it must look at the root causes of the crisis,” said Putin.

Many of the Russian conditions are likely unacceptable to Ukraine and perhaps the U.S. as well. At least, negotiations are ongoing.

Michigan Sentiment (preliminary) fell 6.8 points in March to a 28-month low of 57.9, below expectations of 63.0 versus 64.7 in February. It was the third consecutive monthly decline. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.9% from 4.3% previously. Five-year inflation expectations reached 3.9% versus 3.3% in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$4.68 (+0.16%)
5-Day Change: +$70.88 (+2.43%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,003.05
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $3,003.05
Weighted Alpha: +38.51

Gold extended to the upside on Friday to satisfy the $3,000 objective, buoyed by ongoing haven interest and a soft dollar. While the yellow metal has backed off the new record high at $3,003.05, a second consecutive higher weekly close appears likely.



The next Fibonacci objective is at $3,029.67. A measuring objective off the recent corrective phase highlights $3,049.34. The market is already talking about $3,500 as everyone adjusts expectations higher.

Chinese gold ETFs saw record inflows in February, rising 21 tonnes to 131 tonnes. The PBoC was also a buyer in February, adding 5 tonnes to reserves. It was the fourth straight month of purchases since the central bank's gold buying pause ended in November.

Goldman Sachs believes U.S. policy uncertainty will support investor demand for gold, and I'm anticipating solid ETF inflows this week. GS also expects that central bank buying "will remain structurally higher," creating upside risk to their $3,100 year-end forecast.

Record-high gold prices continue to weigh on jewelry demand. Reuters reported that Indian jewelers were offering discounts up to $39, the biggest in nearly eight months. India's gold imports plunged 85% y/y to 20-year lows in February, and demand appears destined to remain weak in March.

The former all-time high at $2,955.40 marks the first significant level of support. A minor intraday chart point from Thursday at $2,968.06/67.98 provides an intervening barrier.

Silver traded with a 34-handle in early U.S. trading, a level not seen since late October. The white metal is garnering support from news that the Greens won't oppose Germany's spending blitz and hopes that additional stimulus measures will be announced by China on Monday.



Fresh record highs in gold and ongoing weakness in the dollar are providing an additional boost. Silver is up more than 17% YTD and nearly 36% from a year ago.

Suddenly, the more than 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct) is back in the market's sights. A minor intervening resistance is noted at $34.517 (30-Oct high).

A minor intraday chart point from Thursday at $33.396/394 bolsters former resistance now support at $33.340. Below the latter, the $33.000/$32.961 level stands in front of the 20-day MA at $32.462.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

3/12/2025

Gold rises to two-week highs as silver pressures the February high

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have reached agreement on a proposal that includes a temporary ceasefire and plans to enter into immediate negotiations with Moscow to end the war. The ball is now in Russia's court, said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The U.S. has launched sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The EU and Canada were quick to retaliate with levies of their own.

President Trump walked back his threat of even higher tariffs on Canada after Ontario temporarily suspended its plan to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity provided to several northern states. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have agreed to talks.

U.S. consumer inflation slowed in February, helped by a 1% decline in gasoline prices. Core inflation dropped to a near four-year low of 3.1% y/y.

Attention now turns to tomorrow's PPI release. The market will be looking for confirmation of cooling inflation.

There is a realization that the February inflation data does not reflect tariffs that went into effect in early March. Dovish Fed expectations actually moderated somewhat as the latest trade tensions overshadowed the CPI undershoot.

The Fed is expected to remain on hold when the FOMC meets next week. Fed funds futures continue to suggest the next rate cut will come in June.

The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate today by 25 bps to 2.75%. "Heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada," warned the BoC.

The House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through September. The GOP is going to need some support from democrats to get the measure to the Senate floor.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 11.2% in the 7-Mar week after a 20.4% gain in the previous week. 30-year mortgage rates edged lower by 4 bps to 6.67% from 6.73% in the previous week.

CPI rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.5% in January; +2.8% y/y, versus +3.0% in January. Core +0.2% on expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.4% in January; +3.1% y/y, versus +3.3% in January.  


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$1.44 (-0.05%)
5-Day Change: -$0.69 (-0.02%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +34.45

Gold is on the bid at two-week highs. The yellow metal is being buoyed by rising trade tensions and an undershoot on U.S. consumer inflation that keeps the dollar on the defensive.



More than 78.6% of the recent corrective phase has now been retraced, returning focus to the all-time high at $2,955.40. New record highs would bode well for the long-awaited attainment of the $3,000 objective.

The Perth Mint reported a 35% m/m increase in gold coins and minted bar sales in February to 25,103 ounces. However, sales are down 47% from a year ago. "It is heartening to see the increase in sales on January levels given precious metals prices remain at record highs," said Neil Vance, Perth Mint's general manager of minted products.

Former resistance at $2,929.17/26.75 now marks first support and stands in front of the intraday low at $2,910.24. The latter corresponds closely with the 20-day moving average today.

Silver continues to outperform and has moved convincingly above $33 for the first time in three weeks. The long-awaited close above $33 appears to be in the offing.



The white metal has benefitted from rising trade tensions, Germany's planned spending bazooka, and expectations of further Chinese stimulus. Strength in gold and copper has also provided solid underpinnings to the silver markets.

Copper prices surged to nine-month highs on worries that it's the next metal in the Trump administration's crosshairs. Nearly half of U.S. copper needs are satisfied by imports. 

A breach of the $33.340 high from 14-Feb would bode well for a retest of the more than 22-year high at $34.853 (22-Oct'24). An additional intervening barrier is noted at $33.554 (78.6% retracement of the decline from $34.853 to $28.783).

First support is $33.00/$32.954 and will be important on a close basis. The overseas low at $32.728 provides a solid barrier ahead of the 20-day MA at $32.308.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound from Monday's weakness

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Risk aversion remains elevated after stocks extended losses on Monday. While shares have stabilized somewhat today, ongoing uncertainty about tariffs and the impact of significant government downsizing continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Federal government employment declined by 10k in February, according to the nonfarm payrolls report that came out on Friday. However, the reality of the Trump administration's efforts to cut the size of government has yet to be fully reflected in the data.

There are many private sector companies reliant on government contracts and workers that have or will be rethinking their staffing needs. Certainly, service providers in the DC area will be considering cuts to headcount. 

President Trump recently warned there would be a "period of transition," which many have translated to mean "recession." As private sector hiring slows, absorbing former government workers in the private workforce will be increasingly challenging. 

President Trump said that he will double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50% in response to Ontario's 25% price hike on electricity exported to a handful of northern states. Trade tensions continue to escalate.

Trade war concerns and increasingly dovish Fed expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. The dollar index has fallen to five-month lows.  

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.1 points to 100.7 in February, below expectations of 101.0, versus 102.8 in January. It was the second straight monthly decline but the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. "Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street," warned NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

JOLTS Job Opening rebounded 232k to 7,740k in January, above expectations of 7,630k, versus a downward revised 7,508k in December. Quits surged 171k to 3,266k.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$23.69 (+0.82%)
5-Day Change: +$49.46 (+1.73%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +33.33

Gold has recovered from yesterday's setback, buoyed by rising trade tensions and a weaker dollar. The yellow metal set a new high for the week, leaving last week's high at $2,929.17 vulnerable to a retest.



Today's rebound comes despite yesterday's close below the 20-day MA and the $2,900 level, which suggested short-term vulnerability. However, Trump's threat of a retaliatory tariff increase on Canada seems to have stoked haven interest once again.

Additionally, Fed funds futures now imply 82 bps in cuts by year end, even though a cut at this month's FOMC meeting still appears to be off the table. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of non-yielding gold.

The market will get February readings on consumer inflation tomorrow and producer inflation on Thursday. Signs of waning inflationary pressure could pull expectations for the next rate cut forward and provide a boost for gold.

If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it will temper dovish sentiment. However, worries about stagflation will intensify and perhaps provide a lift to gold's haven appeal.

All in all, gold appears to be in a pretty favorable position despite my concerns about some bearish chart features that have emerged in recent weeks. The greatest downside risk may be deleveraging pressures if the stock market sells off further, but gold held up fairly well on Monday.

A breach of chart/Fibonacci resistance at $2,929.17/68 would bode well for a retest of the $2,955.40 record high from 24-Feb. Beyond the latter, $3,000 remains a valid upside target.

Yesterday's low at $2,882.53 reinforces the midpoint of last week's rally at $2,882.20 as a short-term level to watch.  The 61.8% retracement level of the move from $2,835.23 to $2,929.17 comes in at $2,871.12.

Silver is outperforming today, surging to three-week highs above $32.750. The white metal is being buoyed by more dovish Fed expectations and a weaker dollar. Gold's resilience and strength in copper also offer support.

 

The bull camp has been encouraged recently by Germany's proposed defense and infrastructure spending blitz, as well as promises for more stimulus from China. This is all helping to highlight the underlying bullish supply/demand dynamics of the silver market.

Silver has traded above $33.00 several times since mid-February but has yet to register a close with a 33-handle. Such a close would bolster confidence in this year's uptrend, but the $33.340 high from 14-Feb must be negated to clear the way for a retest of the more than 22-year high at $34.853 (22-Oct'24).

Today's U.S. session low at $32.456 marks initial support and protects the 20-day MA at $32.249. Today's overseas low at $31.872 is now the important short-term level to watch.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.