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Gold rebounds within range as weak jobs data revives hopes for rate cuts, dollar falls

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump signed an executive order Thursday evening that raises tariffs on dozens of countries. Although today is the deadline, the new tariffs will not take effect until August 7, reportedly to allow time to update the tariff schedule.

Trump indicated that he is open to more deals even now that the deadline has passed. "It doesn’t mean that somebody doesn’t come along in four weeks and say we can make some kind of a deal," he said.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data have raised concerns that cracks in the labor market are starting to form. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 73k, below expectations of 102k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

However, back-month revisions of -258k and weakness in the household survey data were troubling. The survey reflected a decline of 260k workers, with the participation rate slipping to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022. The reversal in immigration flows was likely a contributing factor.

Some manufacturing sector weakness was also revealed in today's data dump. Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction for the first time this year, and ISM hit a nine-month low. The jobs report showed an 11k contraction in manufacturing jobs.

The trade quickly priced in a 25 bps rate cut for September, and 50 bps of easing by year-end is back in play. The dollar index plunged more than 1.5% from a nine-month high in European trading. Yields and stocks are broadly lower, as risk-off sentiment prevails.

Persistent tariff uncertainty is certainly contributing to risk aversion amid ongoing speculation about retaliation risks and inflation implications as the higher levies get deployed. The market now shifts attention to the August 12 deadline for China to finalize a deal.

Nonfarm Payrolls +73k in July, below expectations of +102k, versus a revised 14k in June (was +147k). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, versus 4.1% in June. Hourly earnings +0.3%, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in June. Workweek ticked up to 34.2 hours.

S&P Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.8 for July, versus a 49.5 preliminary read and 52.9 in June.  The update confirms the first move into contraction territory this year.

Manufacturing ISM fell 1 point to a nine-month low of 48.0 in July, below expectations of 49.5, versus 49.0 in June. Prices declined to 64.8 from 69.7 in June.

Construction Spending fell -0.4% in June, below expectations of +0.1%, versus a revised -0.4% in May (was -0.3%).

Michigan Sentiment Final was revised down to 61.7, versus a 61.8 preliminary print and 60.7 in June. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$8.60 (+0.09%)
5-Day Change: -$5.47 (-0.16%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,369.10 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +34.84

Gold surged back into the upper half of the well-defined range, setting new highs for the week. The yellow metal is being spurred by the NFP miss, revived expectations of rate cuts in H2, and retreats in yields and the dollar. 



An uptick in trade uncertainty contributed to risk-off sentiment, boosting haven interest just a day after gold notched its first lower monthly close (albeit minimal) of the year. A close above $3,337.01 is needed to avoid a third consecutive lower weekly close.

The fact that the 100-day moving average and the $3,256.02 low from 30-Jun successfully contained losses earlier in the week bodes well for the longer-term bullish scenario. Today's rebound back above the midpoint of the range, Monday's high, and the 20- and 50-day moving averages offer further encouragement to the bull camp.

I'd like to see a close above those moving averages at $3,340.51/42.29 to confirm scope for renewed probes above $3,400. Minor intervening chart points are noted at $3,352.57 (midpoint of range-within-the-range), $3,372.59 (25-Jul high), and $3,392.11 (24-Jul high).

If incoming data reinforce the notion that the labor market is weakening, we could see rate cut expectations for year-end build to 75 bps. That would reinvigorate selling interest in the dollar and provide some lift for gold, putting record highs around $3,500 back in play.

Bottom line, gold remains well contained within the range, and the range-within-the-range, just now in the upper half of the former and right at the midpoint of the latter. It doesn't strike me that a breakout in either direction is imminent.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.222 (-0.60%)
5-Day Change: -$1.196 (-3.13%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +30.50

Silver has caught a bit of a bid, helped by new highs for the week in gold and a weaker dollar. However, price action remains confined to yesterday's range, and a third straight lower weekly close appears to be on tap.



Tests below the 50-day moving average at $36.538 have attracted buying interest over the past two sessions, leaving the $36.257 Fibonacci level intact. However, indications of manufacturing sector weakness and this week's copper rout pose headwinds.

A close above $37 today would ease short-term pressure on the downside. However, the 20-day MA at $37.861 and the halfway back point of the recent correction at $37.902, call it $38, must be regained to reinvigorate the bulls. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold stabilizes within the range, near unchanged for July

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump wasted no time in blasting Fed Chair Powell for not cutting interest rates yesterday. "He is TOO LATE, and actually, TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL, to have the job of Fed Chair,” Trump posted on TruthSocial.

Despite two dovish dissents, the statement signalled some heightened concerns about inflation, leading the market to interpret the decision as a hawkish hold. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman favored a 25-basis-point cut, and their dissents leave the FOMC the most divided it has been in more than 30 years.

However, I think the trade discounted the division somewhat. Both Waller and Bowman are on the short list to replace Powell, suggesting they may have merely been trying to increase their appeal to Trump.

The President remains optimistic that easing is in the cards. “I hear they’re going to do it in September," Trump said. I didn't hear anything like that, rather just a reiteration that the Fed remains data-dependent.

The market is increasingly skeptical. Fed funds futures put the probability of a September cut at 37%, down from 46.7% yesterday, 58.4% a week ago, and 75.4% a month ago. Implied easing for year-end stands at 34 bps.

The Fed also expressed concerns about ongoing tariff uncertainty ahead of looming deadlines. That uncertainty manifested in the copper market yesterday.

Copper had risen to record highs near $6 in recent weeks as importers stockpiled ahead of 50% tariffs slated to take effect on Friday. However, yesterday, the Trump Administration unexpectedly announced that refined products such as cathodes would be excluded.

Copper plunged nearly 18% on Wednesday and extended losses another 5% on Thursday. The decline since last week's record high of $5.98436 is nearly 27%. “If cathode is excluded, the arb is over,” said Michael Haigh, head of FIC and Commodity Research at Societe Generale in a Mining.com piece.

  

I believed from the beginning that because copper is so critically important to key U.S. industries, such as automotive, aerospace, defense, power generation/transmission, and building, among others, the White House would ultimately walk back copper tariffs (see 29-Jul and 15-Jul commentary).

I do think it is prudent for the U.S. to boost domestic mining, smelting, and refining capacity to shorten and harden the copper supply chain. If that is Trump's goal, it's a good one. However, this kind of volatility is really counterproductive.

The Fed's favored measure of inflation edged up to 2.6% y/y in June, from 2.4% in May. It was the second consecutive monthly rise since April's seven-month low of 2.2% and backs up the FOMC's heightened worry about price risks.

Fading dovishness has Treasuries on the offer into month-end. Today's bill auctions were poorly subscribed amid expectations of increased supply and therefore higher yields down the road.

This, along with trade optimism, keeps the dollar on the bid. The dollar index set fresh nine-week highs today, trading above 100 for the first time since late May.

The White House announced a trade deal with South Korea. Seoul will pay a 15% tariff, invest $350 bln in U.S. energy and shipbuilding projects, and buy $100 bln in U.S. energy products. U.S. goods imported into South Korea will not be tariffed.

Deals were also reached with Thailand and Cambodia after the Trump Administration applied pressure last week that led to a ceasefire between the neighboring countries that have been embroiled in a long-standing border dispute.

Mexico has been granted a 90-day extension to negotiate a trade deal after Presidents Sheinbaum and Trump spoke today. The current 25% tariff rate remains in place, but will not be hiked tomorrow. Could more reprieves be forthcoming?

Trade tensions with Canada escalated after PM Carney said he would recognize a Palestinian state in September. Trump said the Canadian position “will make it very hard” to reach a trade agreement.

The BoJ held steady on rates, as was widely expected. The central bank remains cautious amid domestic political and ongoing trade uncertainties.

Challenger Layoffs rose 14.1k to 62.1k in Jul, from 48.0k in June.

Personal Income rebounded 0.3% in June, above expectations of +0.2%, versus -0.4% in May.

PCE rose 0.3% in June, below expectations of +0.4%, versus a revised unch in May (was -0.1%). 

PCE Chain Price Index rose 0.3% in June, in line with expectations, versus a revised +0.2% in May (was +0.1%); 2.6% y/y, versus 2.4% in May. Core +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% in May; 2.8% y/y, unchanged from May.

Civilian ECI rose 0.9% in Q2, above expectations of +0.8%, versus +0.9% in Q1; 3.6% y/y unchanged from Q1.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 1k to 218k in the week ended 26-Jul, below expectations of 222k, versus 217k in the previous week. Continuing claims steady at 1,946k in the 19-Jul week.

Chicago PMI rebounded 6.7 points to a four-month high of 47.1 in July, above expectations of 42.0, versus 40.4 in June. However, the index remained in contraction territory for a 20th consecutive month. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$21.19 (+0.65%)
5-Day Change: -$58.71 (-1.74%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,369.10 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +33.61

Gold fell to a four-week low on Wednesday after the Fed's hawkish hold spurred yields and the dollar. While the yellow metal is firmer today, yields and the dollar continue to pose a headwind. Gold needs to close above $3,303.10 today to avoid its first lower monthly close in seven.

 

Important support marked by the 100-day moving average and the 30-Jun low at $3,270.50/$3,256.02 is holding thus far. This leaves gold well contained within the range that has dominated since mid-May, but further tests of the downside must be considered.

Tests back above $3,300 earlier today met modest selling pressure around the midpoint of the range, leaving the convergence of Monday's high, and the 20- and 50-day moving averages at $3,340.31/43.81 protected. A short-term breach of this level would set a more favorable tone within the range, suggesting potential for probes above $3,400.

The World Gold Council says that investors fueled robust gold demand in Q2, led by ETF inflows, strong interest in bars and coins, and ongoing central bank demand. "Total Q2 gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) increased by 3% y/y to 1,249t," according to the Gold Demand Trends report.

Bar and coin demand slipped 6% to 306.8 tonnes in Q2, but was up 11% versus Q2'24. Bar and coin investors were "attracted by the rising price and gold’s safe-haven attributes," leading to "the strongest first half for bar and coin investment since 2013."

Total gold supply rose 3%. Initial estimates suggest record mine production of 909 tonnes, while recycling remained subdued.

If support at $3,256.02 gives way, focus would shift to the $3,200 zone. However, I still view the underlying trend as bullish and expect the range low at $3,127.12 (15-May) to remain protected.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.816 (-2.20%)
5-Day Change: -$2.372 (-6.07%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +28.98

Silver has tumbled to a three-week low of $26.287, but still appears poised to notch its third straight higher monthly close. Silver is underperforming today, weighed by the plunge in copper, firm yields, and dollar strength. The gold/silver ratio rebounded to a three-week high of 90.937.



Yesterday's breach of the $37.443 level cleared the way for tests of the next tier of Fibonacci support at $36.954 and the 50-day moving average.  The breach of the 50-day leaves chart points at $36.315 and $36.201 vulnerable to tests.

A rebound of $37 would ease short-term pressure on the downside. However, the 20-day MA and the halfway back point, just shy of $38, must be regained to revive confidence in the longer-term bullish scenario.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold slides to four-week lows as trade and economic optimism weigh on haven demand, boost dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. data continue to reflect an economy on a solid footing. This is stoking risk appetite, but may have implications for interest rates as the FOMC hashes out monetary policy ahead of this afternoon's decision.

U.S. GDP rebounded to 3.0% in Q2, after tariff front-running led to a contraction of 0.5% in Q1.  The GDP price index surprised with a drop to 2.0% from 3.8% in Q1. Better-than-expected growth and a significant slowdown in inflation; that's a great report.

The ADP employment survey showed a rebound of 104k to private payrolls, exceeding expectations. The labor market continues to look resilient. Median expectations for Friday's jobs report are +102k.

The Fed is widely expected to hold steady on policy, but today's data provides some additional fodder for consideration. The sharp drop in the price index arguably provides some clearance for easing, but the Fed's favored measure of inflation doesn't come out until tomorrow.

The potential for dovish dissent could provide some drama today. One FedWatcher I know and respect suggested Powell could tailor the statement to get a unanimous vote, but that suggests to me that it would have to be a statement with a dovish tilt.

The Bank of Canada held steady in line with expectations, amid ongoing trade uncertainty and a looming deadline. "While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable," said the statement.

President Trump is holding to the August 1 deadline, when tariffs will increase for trading partners that have not struck trade deals. Trump called out India specifically, saying that 25% tariffs will take effect on Friday. He also threatened an additional "penalty" because India buys so much military equipment and energy from Russia.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 3.8% in the week ended 25-Jul, versus +0.8% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked down to 6.83% from 6.84%.

ADP Employment Survey rebounded to +104k in July, above expectations of +82k, versus a revised -23k in June (was -33k).

GDP (Advance) rebounded 3.0% in Q2, above expectations of +2.3%, versus -0.5% in Q1. The chain price index fell to 2.0%, below expectations of 2.6%, versus +3.8% in Q1.

Pending Home Sales Index fell 0.8% to 72.0 in June, below expectations of +0.3%, versus -1.8% in May. The annualized rate fell to -2.8%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.09%)
5-Day Change: -$82.08 (-2.42%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,369.10 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +33.41

Gold has slipped below $3,300 to four-week lows as trade and economic optimism pushed the dollar index to nine-week highs. Today's solid economic data further eroded safe-haven interest in the yellow metal.



Secondary support at $3,284.61 (9-Jul low) is within striking distance. A breach of this level would shift focus to the 100-day moving average at $3,267.60 and solid chart support at $3,256.02 (30-Jun low). If these levels are taken out, the $3,200 zone would be in play.

Gold remains entrenched in the range, and while decisively in the lower half, today's Fed decision could spark an intraday rebound. A close above $3,300 would set a more favorable tone within the range. The midpoint is at $3,311.51.

New highs for the week above $3,343.81 would put gold back above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and bode well for renewed tests above $3,400. Formidable chart resistances at $3,435.01 (23-Jul high) and $3,449.13 (16-Jun high) must be negated to put the record high around $3,500 back in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.217 (-0.57%)
5-Day Change: -$1.673 (-4.26%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +33.54

Silver fell to a three-week low, weighed by weakness in gold, softer copper, and nine-week highs in the dollar. Nearly 50% of the recent leg-up to 14-year highs has now been retraced, and the white metal is trading below the 20-day moving average. 



Further slippage seems likely, unless the Fed adopts a more dovish bent this afternoon. Economic data seem to provide some cover to do so, but despite recent trade agreements, uncertainty prevails ahead of the August 1 and August 12 (China) tariff deadlines.

If the 50% retracement level at $37.443 is penetrated, focus would shift to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $36.954. Below the latter, the rising 50-day MA at $36.408 would be in play.

A close today back above the 20-day MA would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but $38.00 will probably have to be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp. New highs for the week above $38.316 would suggest a corrective low is in place.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold near the midpoint of the range, eying trade developments and Fed

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The market continues to focus on trade developments with the August 1 deadline fast approaching. Optimism, and therefore risk appetite, remains elevated in the wake of this week's agreement with the EU.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators are meeting in Stockholm to finalize a deal before the temporary trade truce expires on August 12. At a minimum, there is an expectation of an additional 90-day extension that could be a precursor to a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi later in the year.

Negotiations between Canada and the U.S. are in an "intense phase," according to Canadian PM Mark Carney. The Japan and EU deals put pressure on Canada to strike an agreement. "We will only sign a deal that's the right deal, that's a good deal for Canada," Carney said.

The U.S. trade balance narrowed by $10.4 bln to -$86.0 bln in June, inside expectations of -$98.0 bln. The goods trade deficit has moderated in recent months as importers reduced orders after front-loading earlier in the year to avoid tariffs.

The Trump administration reportedly used trade pressure to get Cambodia and Thailand to agree to a ceasefire. Negotiations to resolve the long-standing border dispute are ongoing.

Trump also shortened the timeline for Russia to achieve a ceasefire with Ukraine to 10-12 days. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated by Moscow's attempts to improve its negotiating position by escalating attacks even as talks are ongoing. "I'm disappointed in President Putin, very disappointed in him," Trump told reporters.

The two-day FOMC meeting begins today. When policy is announced tomorrow, the central bank is widely expected to hold steady. What's going to be interesting is how many committee members dissent against that decision. At least one is likely (Waller), but it could be two (Bowman?). The results could spark some movement in Fed funds futures.

We'll also get policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the BoJ this week.

Advance Goods Trade -$86.0 bln in June, inside expectations of -$98.0 bln, versus -$96.4 bln in May.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-city) rose 0.4% to a record high 343.0 in May, versus 341.6 in April. It was the fifth straight monthly rise. The annualized rate of appreciation slowed to 2.8% from 3.4% in April.

FHFA Home Price Index fell 0.2% to a six-month low of 434.4 in May, versus 435.1 in April. It was the third straight monthly decline. The annualized rate of appreciation slowed to 2.8% from 3.2% in April.

Consumer Confidence rose 2 points to 97.2 in July, above expectations of 95.9, versus a revised 95.2 in June (was 93.0). Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down to 5.8% from a revised 5.9% in June (was 6.0%).

JOLT Job Openings fell 275k to 7,437k in July, below expectations of 7,750k, versus a revised 7,712k in June (was 7,769k). Quits -128k to 3,142k. Layoffs -7k to 1,604k.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$7.05 (+0.21%)
5-Day Change: -$106.25 (-3.10%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,369.10 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +34.46

Gold has recovered modestly from a three-week low on Monday as the trade continues to eye tariff developments ahead of Friday's deadline. While the yellow metal remains well contained within the range, dips into the lower half of that range have attracted bids so far this week.



Trade optimism and expectations of steady Fed policy have pushed the dollar index to five-week highs above 99. Dollar strength poses a headwind for gold.

That being said, the yellow metal is holding up pretty well. I still see the chart formation that has emerged since May as a continuation pattern within the long-term uptrend.

Nonetheless, more progress on trade could weigh further on safe-haven demand for gold, sparking dips below $3,300. However, the important $3,256.02 low from 30-Jun has been fortified by the rising 100-day moving average. The 9-Jul low at $3,284.61 provides a good intervening barrier.

On the other hand, signs of dovish dissent at the Fed would likely increase the prospects for rate cuts later in the year. That would weigh on the dollar, providing some lift for gold.

Mondy's high at $3,343.81 corresponds closely with the 20- and 50-day moving averages. A rise above this zone would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, returning focus to $3,400.

Last week's high at $3,435.01 protects the June high at $3,449.13. The latter must be cleared to put the record high around $3,500 back in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.048 (-0.13%)
5-Day Change: -$1.231 (-3.13%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +35.87

Silver remains defensive just above $38 after gains last week stalled ahead of $40. Trade optimism is seen as generally encouraging for silver, as the bulk of demand is driven by industrial uses.



While copper has backed off the record high set last week at $5.9844, the market remains generally well bid amid threats of 50% tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 1. Copper strength provides support for silver, but I still have a feeling that copper tariffs will get walked back.

While we're seeing modest bids around the $38 level, the market is keen to hear the Fed's decision on rates before picking a short-term direction. Friday's jobs report is also going to be important.

New highs for the week above $38.316 would shift focus to the halfway back point of the recent decline at $38.741. A breach of the latter would bode well for renewed tests above $39, with $40 still considered a valid target. A secondary objective is marked by a Fibonacci level at $41.610.

On the downside, Monday's low at $37.965 represents a slight penetration of the 38.2% retracement level of the leg up from $35.369 to $39.517. The rising 20-day moving average at $37.840 further bolsters this area. Penetration would shift focus to the next tier of chart/Fibonacci support at $37.557/443. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold retreats toward the midpoint of the range, weighed by trade optimism

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump adopted a more conciliatory tone after touring the Fed renovation with Chairman Powell, calling it a "great honor." In a TruthSocial post, he urged, "let’s just get it finished and, even more importantly, LOWER INTEREST RATES!"

Trump also seemed to back away from previous threats to fire Powell. “To do that is a big move, and I just don’t think it’s necessary,” Trump said.

“I think we had a very good meeting on interest rates. And [Powell] said to me ... very strongly, the country is doing well," Trump told reporters. “I think he’s going to start recommending lower rates,” Trump added.

The FOMC meets next week and is widely expected to remain on hold for a fifth consecutive meeting. The last rate cut was in December 2024.

There is expected to be some dovish dissent this time around, which could suggest mounting pressure for easing later in the year.  However, we may not get that clarity until the minutes are released later in August.

Overall risk appetite remains elevated in anticipation of more trade agreements before the August 1 deadline. If the White House can finalize deals with the EU, Canada, and Mexico, the rest will take care of itself. However, the EU is prepared to retaliate if an agreement is not achieved, which will lead to in-kind U.S. retaliation, according to Trump.

The border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia escalated on Friday with the combatants exchanging heavy artillery and rocket fire. The situation “could escalate into a state of war,” warned Thai Prime Minister Wechayachai. 

Durable Orders fell 9.3% in June, inside expectations of -10.0%, versus a revised +16.5% in May ( was +16.4%). Ex-trans rose 0.2%, versus +0.6% in May (was +0.5%). 

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.39 (-0.24%)
5-Day Change: -$9.06 (-0.27%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,358.18 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +38.08

Gold is under pressure for a third straight session as trade optimism continues to weigh on safe-haven interest. A two-day uptick in the dollar provides some additional pressure. The yellow metal appears poised for a second straight lower weekly close.



The yellow metal is trading just above the midpoint of the range and pressuring the lower limits of the triangle pattern. Selling interest emerged midweek from in front of the 16-Jun high at $3,449.13.

With this level intact, the record high at $3,500 remains protected. The $3,392.11/3,400.00 zone now provides an additional layer of intervening resistance.

Persistent dollar weakness suggests the downside is likely limited from here. It wouldn't be surprising to see the shorts take some profits ahead of today's close. I'm watching the 20-day ($3,345.70) and 50-day ($3,340.91) moving averages on a close basis.

More important support is noted at $3,311.71/51, where last week's low corresponds with the midpoint of the range. Below that, keep an eye on the 9-Jul low at $3,284.61 and the June low at $3,256.02.

The bull camp is may be slightly disheartened by this week's failure to sustain the push to five-week highs above $3,400. However, all we've really seen in the second half of the week is a confirmation that gold remains locked within the range that has dominated since the $3,127.12 corrective low was established on 15-May.

Gold is trading less than 5% off its all-time high, suggesting a level of market resilience.  The underlying uptrend is not in any immediate jeopardy, suggesting dips within the well-defined range will continue to be viewed as buying opportunities.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.329 (-0.84%)
5-Day Change: +$0.577 (+1.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $39.517
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $39.517
Weighted Alpha: +42.09

Silver has dropped more than 2% today after the push to 14-year highs earlier in the week stalled shy of the $40 level. The white metal has fallen to new lows for the week and appears on track for a second straight lower weekly close. Copper's retreat from record highs and a slightly firmer dollar weigh.



Nearly 38.2% of the leg up from $35.369 to $39.517 has already been retraced. The next important chart point is last week's low at $37.557. This level is bolstered by the 20-day MA at $37.631 and the halfway back point of the aforementioned move at $37.443.

While the magnitude of the retreat from $39.517 is somewhat of a concern, losses thus far are less than 3.5%. Keep in mind that silver surged more than 4% in the first half of the week, suggesting that selling into the weekend is probably profit taking.

The underlying trend remains bullish. A rebound next week above $38.736/785 would return confidence to the bull trend and favor a true test of $40. Beyond the latter, the $41.610 Fibonacci level would be in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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