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Downtrends in gold and silver are likely to extend with initial US inflation readings soft but the dollar does not show definitive weakness from that news.

In fact, further evidence of the negative bias toward gold and silver is the lack of support from a resumption of a falling US interest rate environment.

The bear camp should also be emboldened by the prospects of slumping Chinese physical demand as troubles in the Chinese economy (verified by continued weakness in Chinese equity markets and a disappointing new loan report) should crimp Chinese gold imports...[MORE]

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Dec 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, buoyed by weaker Treasury yields, but bullion was still near its lowest in over three weeks as the dollar inched higher ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook.

Spot gold gained 0.1% at $1,981.30 per ounce, as of 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,997.60...[LINK]

The precious metals have stayed within a fairly tight trading range and are holding onto a mild positive tone coming into this morning's action.

A pullback in the dollar has provided gold and silver with early support in front of this morning's critical US inflation data after gold and silver moved below their 200-day moving averages yesterday.

Expectations for a soft US CPI report later today should strengthen the bull case if the report matches expectations of a gain of 0.1%...[MORE]

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Dec 12 (Reuters) - Gold prices recovered from a three-week low hit the previous session, as a weaker dollar provided support on Tuesday ahead of U.S. inflation data and major central bank policy meetings expected to yield clues on interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,988.69 per ounce, as of 1211 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,004.10...[LINK]

Given the fundamental and technical events of the last two weeks, the trend in gold and silver has shifted back in favor of the bear camp.

From a technical perspective, the massive rally last week exhibited a classic blowoff top and reversal with confirmation from an explosion in trading volume and a subsequent decline in open interest.

From a fundamental perspective, the mainstay of the bull case in precious metal markets since October has been a weakening dollar which now appears to have recovered especially with the market's decision that despite signs of US slowing, the US will likely hold up better than most in the face of the lagged headwinds from the unprecedented rate hike cycle...[MORE]

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Gold prices declined on Monday pressured by a firm U.S. dollar, as investors look ahead to several major central bank meetings and U.S. inflation data this week for further clarity on the interest rate path.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,994.70 per ounce. U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $2,009.10...[LINK]

Predicting the reaction in gold and silver to today's US payroll report is difficult as the precious metal trade this week has periodically delinking with key outside market drivers in place over the prior two months.

Recently, the focus of gold and silver has shifted primarily to the dollar with US treasury rates a secondary and inconsistent influence.

Pushed into the market, we favor the bear track with the aggressive blowoff reversal and a follow-through slide in gold and silver prices this week threatening the bull camp...[MORE]

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