Blog posts of '2026' 'June'

Gold and silver tumble as strong jobs data dims rate cut hopes, and Middle East tensions remain elevated 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 172k in May, well above market expectations of +85k. Back-month revisions were +93k. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3% m/m, but the annual pace of earnings growth slowed to 3.4% y/y, versus 3.6% in April.

These data are reflective of ongoing resilience in the labor market and bode well for continued economic growth. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 is +3.0%, while the latest Philly Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters projects more modest Q2 growth of 2.1%.

Hezbollah has rejected the terms of the latest ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, further eroding hopes for a broader peace deal. Iran reiterated strong support for Hezbollah and is now demanding full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. That's not going to happen, and Israel is continuing drone/air strikes in southern Lebanon.

Iran claims it fired warning shots at a U.S. Navy destroyer in the Gulf of Oman, forcing it to withdraw. CentCom quickly disavowed the claim, saying, "Iran is lying. U.S. military assets at sea continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and unimpeded.”

President Trump continues to express optimism about a peace deal, but tensions persist and negotiations seem to have stalled. The U.S. maintains the ceasefire with Iran is holding but has conducted "self-defense" strikes. Tehran says talks are suspended or complicated by ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting. IDF actions in Lebanon raised the ire of President Trump, prompting a heated phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the week.

While oil is well off the April/May highs, Brent crude is still up nearly 40% from a year ago and continues to stoke inflation worries. That, combined with ongoing signs of os a resilient economy, fosters higher-for-longer rate expectations, which is providing support for the dollar. The dollar index jumped to eight-week highs to pressure 100.

The Fed is still widely expected to hold steady at the June FOMC meeting, the first presided over by new chairman Kevin Warsh. However, Fed funds futures now reflect scope for 23.5 bps of tightening by year-end.

The market will be focused on U.S. inflation data in the week ahead. May CPI will be released on Wednesday, and the market is expecting acceleration to 4.2% (headline) and 2.9% (core) from 3.8% and 2.8% in April. May PPI comes out on Thursday. Headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 6.5% y/y, versus +6.0% in April, while core PPI is forecasted to hold steady at 5.2%.

Hot inflation readings could bolster Fed rate hike expectations next week, driving bullish moves in yields and the dollar. However, Middle East headlines continue to have the potential to override these fundamentals.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.84 (-0.20%)
5-Day Change: -$71.85 (-1.58%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +27.03

Gold has tumbled to ten-week lows after strong jobs data further diminished hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, driving yields and the U.S. dollar higher. Persistent Middle East tensions added to the selling pressure. The yellow metal is heading for a roughly 3% weekly loss and its first close below the 200-day moving average since late 2023.



Good economic news is bad news for gold right now, as strong jobs data further reduces the odds of a Fed rate cut this year and even raises the possibility of a future hike. When combined with persistent Middle East tensions that are supporting oil prices and inflation expectations, today’s sell-off comes as little surprise – especially during a seasonally weak period for the metal.

Looking ahead, progress toward a Middle East peace deal or signs of cooling inflation could revive buying interest next week. The latter appears unlikely in the near term, meaning developments in the Middle East will likely dictate gold’s direction in the week ahead.

The convincing breach of the 200-day MA shifts focus to the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially, but a retest of the March low at $4,100.32 must now be considered. If the market sets new lows for the year, the $4,000 zone would be in play.

The falling 20-day moving average at $4,538.56 must be regained to ease downside pressure somewhat, favoring further consolidation within the $5,595.02/$4,100.3 range. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,367.12, $4,400.00, and $4,443.95.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.021 (-1.38%)
5-Day Change: -$2.164 (-2.87%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.369 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +82.75

Silver plunged more than 7% on Friday, weighed by weakness in gold and a stronger dollar. The white metal is poised for about an 8% loss for the week, and its fourth consecutive lower weekly close.



There have been growing signs of AI fatigue in early June, which may be contributing to a bit of a headwind for silver.
While AI-related capex and data center buildout remain part of a broadly positive narrative, sky-high valuations pose risk, prompting investor rotation toward less aggressive stances heading into summer.

Silver has fallen to approach its 200-day moving average at $68.124 after failing to climb into the upper half of this year's range in May. A breach of the 200-day MA would highlight the $67.091 Fibonacci level. Below that, chart supports at 66.763 (26-Mar low) and $66.030 (24-Mar low) would be in play. While the March low at $61.036 still looks to be protected, bull camp confidence has certainly taken a hit today.

A rebound above $72.488/$72.630 is needed to ease downside pressure and reestablish a more consolidative tone within the lower half of the broad range. The probability of such a rebound will hinge on Middle East headlines and U.S. inflation data next week.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold retreats on Middle East escalation as oil and dollar rise in reaction

Outside Market Developments: Kinetic action in the Middle East is undermining hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace deal. Israel's continued campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has created a noticeable wedge between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu – a rift that could encourage Iran to hold out longer in negotiations.

The U.S. continues to strike Iranian military targets around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has responded with missile/drone attacks on US-linked targets in the Gulf, including Kuwait and Bahrain. Flight operations at Kuwait International Airport are suspended following a drone attack that resulted in casualties.

At this point, it's tough to argue that the ceasefire is holding. Repeated tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Israel and Hezbollah, continue to erode the fragile truce and complicate efforts to negotiate a lasting peace.

Today's ADP report showed solid private-sector hiring in May. Private employers added 122k jobs, beating expectations of 117k and marking the strongest gain since January 2025. The print reflects ongoing labor market resilience heading into Friday’s official BLS jobs report.

Today's combination of resilient U.S. jobs data and escalating tensions in the Middle East is reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations. This dual pressure is keeping markets pricing in very high odds of no change at the 17-Jun FOMC meeting, and dimming expectations for any rate cut this year.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$29.10 (+0.95%)
5-Day Change: -$5.94 (-0.13%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,256.02 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +26.31

Gold has slipped to new lows for the week, weighed by rising Middle East tensions that have lifted both oil and the dollar. The yellow metal is currently retesting its 200-day moving average during the historically weak cyclical period.



Geopolitical risk is bullish for gold in theory, but the resulting upward pressure on oil, heightened inflation expectations, and hawkish Fed signals have been driving selling pressure since the war began. In light of the most recent escalation, this trend seems likely to continue, although the March low at $4,100.32 still appears well protected at this point.

A close below the 200-day MA at $4,434.22 today would confirm a weaker tone within the lower half of the broad range, shifting focus to the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially. If Middle East de-escalation continues to be stymied, the $4,100.32 low would be vulnerable to a challenge.

On the other hand, revived hopes for peace and retracement in oil would likely set a more favorable tone within the range. A short-term move back above $4,600, and more importantly, a close above the 50-day MA at $4,632.59 would bode well for a return to the $4,800 zone, where the 100-day MA currently corresponds closely with the midpoint of the range.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.781 (-1.04%)
5-Day Change: -$0.920 (-1.23%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $34.272 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +84.88

Silver is being pressured midweek by rising geopolitical tensions, a firmer dollar, and weaker gold. While new lows for the week have been established, last week's range is intact, with tech/AI optimism continuing to provide some underpinning.



Last week's low at $71.808 is vulnerable to a retest, and penetration would shift focus to the April low at $70.893. Below the latter, the $70 zone and the rising 200-day MA at $67.808 would be in play.

A rebound above $75 would be mildly encouraging, but a close above the 50-day MA ($76.155 today) and breach of Tuesday's high at $77.002 is needed to shift focus to the 20-day MA at $78.095. Above the latter, the 25-May high at $78.820 would be the attraction. This more bullish scenario is very much contingent on revived Middle East de-escalation optimism.

PGMs

Platinum and palladium fell to multi-week lows today amid broader precious metals weakness, higher yields, and a stronger dollar. However, both metals remain well above year-ago levels (platinum +75%+, palladium +33%)
due to persistent structural supply deficits and resilient industrial demand.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver slide as de-escalation optimism wanes once again

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The latest round of optimism about Middle East de-escalation that emerged last week has evaporated once again. The U.S. conducted "self-defense" airstrikes on Iranian radar, drone command centers, and military sites over the weekend, after Iran shot down a U.S. drone over international waters. Iran has suspended negotiations citing ceasefire violations, particularly Israel's expanded ground and air campaign against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

In a recent TruthSocial post, President Trump maintained that “Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us.” However, investors are growing increasingly weary of the repeated swings in peace deal expectations.

Oil prices have rebounded on the last increase in geopolitical tensions, stoking persistent inflation concerns and expectations for higher-for-longer rates. The next FOMC meeting is still more than two weeks away on June 16-17. It will be the first meeting under the leadership of new chairman Kevin Warsh. Fed funds futures suggest a 99.6% probability of steady policy.

Stocks remain underpinned near record highs by strong investor enthusiasm for AI, with capital flowing into transformative technologies and next-generation infrastructure. Nvidia is climbing on its new RTX Spark PC chip, lifting partners like Microsoft, Arm, Dell, and HP.

Focus this week will be on U.S. employment data, culminating with the May nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The trade is expecting an increase of 78k and a steady jobless rate, suggestive of ongoing labor market resilience. Geopolitical developments around U.S.-Iran negotiations will also remain a major focus.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$36.30 (-0.80%)
5-Day Change: -$106.48 (-2.33%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,25602 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +26.85

Gold begins the week on the back foot, weighed by rising Middle East tensions, higher oil and a bounce in the dollar. Last week's optimism about a deal between the U.S. and Iran failed to garner a rebound above $4,600, and that optimism has dissipated once again.

 

The market is being squeezed between the declining 20- and 50-day moving averages and the rising 200-day MA. This leaves the yellow metal firmly entrenched in the lower half of the $5,595.02/$4,100.32 range that was established earlier this year, with the next move within the range likely to be dictated by the latest batch of Middle East headlines.

The 20-day MA now corresponds closely with last week's high at $4,594.43. A breach of this level would highlight the 50-day at $4,633.45 initially. Above that, the May high at $4,773.13 and the 100-day MA at $4,803.59 would be in play.

On the other hand, a short-term close below the 200-day MA at $4,423.48 would suggest potential for a downside extension beyond last week's low at $4,367.12. Sights would be on the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level initially, but a retest of the $4,100.32 low would have to be considered at that point. 

Malaysia has announced a 10% import duty on LBMA gold bars of .9999 fineness. Gold jewelry and non-LBMA bars are reportedly unaffected. However, this is the country's first-ever import duty on gold bullion. While the new duty doesn't take effect until next week, it is already disrupting some shipments.

The new Malay tax is thought to be driven primarily by a desire to regulate large inflows of physical gold, preserve foreign exchange reserves, and curb speculative/import-driven demand. While Malaysia is currently running a current account surplus, surging gold imports were putting pressure on the goods trade balance.

India hiked its import duties on gold and silver in May to an effective rate of 15%, seeking to curb imports and support the rupee. The new duty regimes are likely to significantly dampen physical demand in both India and Malaysia by raising domestic prices and reducing affordability.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.407 (+0.54%)
5-Day Change: -$3.652 (-4.68%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.978 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +87.30

Silver remains well contained within its recent range, weighed today by heightened geopolitical concerns and a firmer dollar, but underpinned by the tech/AI tailwind. However, after three consecutive lower weekly closes, the technical bias is tilted to the downside.



The inability of the white metal to maintain gains above $75 leaves last week's low at $71.808 vulnerable to a retest. Minor intervening support is noted at $73.585 and $73.153.

A close above $75 is needed to set a more favorable short-term close, shifting focus to the 50-day MA at $76.031 and the 20-day MA at $78.172. Good chart resistance at $78.820/886 is currently well protected.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.