Blog posts of '2026' 'July'

Gold and silver rebound modestly after posting sharp monthly and quarterly losses

Outside Market Developments: U.S. and Iranian teams continue to hold technical talks in Doha, Qatar, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on restarting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire. Tensions persist over key issues like Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security.

Iran has ruled out direct face-to-face meetings with US envoys there, preferring indirect channels, while both sides insist they remain committed to implementing the MOD and advancing toward a broader peace deal. Consequently, oil remains under pressure near four-month lows.

In his speech today at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged some recent cooling in inflation expectations. While he avoided providing forward guidance, he reaffirmed that the central bank will deliver price stability, with the goal of returning inflation to the 2% target.

"We've all looked around, and we've seen that prices are too high... If there were people... who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability in the US," said Warsh.

Fed funds futures continue to price at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end. About 40 bps of tightening is implied through June 2027.

The manufacturing sector continued to expand in June, but at a slower pace amid easing price pressures. ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 53.3 in June, below expectations of 54.0, versus 54.0 in May. Construction spending rose 0.1% in May,  below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in April.

ADP private payrolls rose 98k in June, below expectations of +113k, versus +122k in May. Focus now shifts to Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report, where payroll growth of 110k is expected. The jobless rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$9.39 (-0.23%)
5-Day Change: +$86.78 (+2.17%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,270.50 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.89

Gold is recovering modestly after reaching a new eight-month low on Tuesday, ending June with a 12% loss. It was the fourth straight lower monthly close. The yellow metal ended Q2 with a 14% loss.

 

Mixed economic data ahead of tomorrow's big jobs report is perhaps bolstering safe-haven interest. However, Warsh reiterated the pledge to "deliver price stability" in a speech today, reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations that have been underpinning the dollar.

If June nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations on the downside, I'd expect the trade to start reversing out some of the recent hawkishness. On the other hand, if the labor market continues to display resilience, gold will likely remain under pressure.

Scope remains for a downside extension to chart/Fibonacci support at $3,887.03/$3,886.02. Tuesday's new low for the year at $3,945.52 provides intervening support that closely corresponds to the lower limit of the large descending wedge pattern.

Today's rebound to new highs for the week is mildly encouraging to the bull camp, suggesting scope for a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $4,183.05. Additional resistance is marked by last week's high is $4,218.41. However, short-term upticks are still likely to be met with selling interest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.338 (-0.58%)
5-Day Change: +$2.716 (+4.73%)
YTD Range: $55.666 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $35.918 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +34.25

Silver saw massive losses of 22% in June and Q2, as the market corrected from the relentless rally of 2025 that extended into January 2026. Besides simple profit taking, the white metal was weighted by war-related uncertainty, hawkish Fed expectations, and a firming dollar.



Consolidative to mildly corrective activity that has emerged since the seven-month low at $55.666 was established last week has not been terribly impressive. Prices remain confined to the 24-Jun range. While a case can be made for a small double bottom, the developing bear flag appears to be the more noticeable technical feature.

Scope remains for a downside extension to challenge Fibonacci levels at $53.695 and $53.340. Confidence in that scenario will be bolstered upon a short-term breach of the $55.727/666 lows.

If the $62.350 high from 24-Jun gives way first, a challenge of the declining 20-day MA at $64.512 would become likely. More substantial resistance in the $70 area is likely to remain well protected.

Tech/AI valuation worries seen earlier in the week appear to have faded, which bolsters industrial demand expectations. With the market in its sixth year of supply deficit, the realities of supply/demand are seen as structurally bullish. Eventually, the long-term uptrend should reassert itself.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.