Gold extends gains on rising haven interest

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The week kicks off with heightened trade tensions after talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down late on Friday. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 bln in Canadian goods, and President Trump said automobiles, car parts, and steel could be tariffed beginning in January. Canada pledged retaliatory tariffs would take effect as soon as 8-Sep.

The market is also watching for clarity on further U.S. economic sanctions against Iran – and possibly its trading partners. Officials have described the planned measures as an “economic D-Day.”

The sanctions would almost assuredly further constrain Iranian oil exports and complicate global supply chains, which could support higher crude prices amid already elevated geopolitical premiums. At the same time, any Iranian retaliation – such as threats to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz – would amplify volatility. Brent crude reached a four-week high above $95 last week, but is slightly easier today.

Ultimately, intensified economic pressure is designed to force Iran back to the bargaining table, and perhaps foment political unrest and regime change. By severely restricting Tehran’s oil revenues and access to global finance, the measures aim to undermine the regime’s ability to sustain its economy, proxies, and military posture, raising the domestic costs of continued defiance.

The market is still digesting last week’s troubling breach of the $40 trillion national debt threshold, which has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability and long-term borrowing costs. In response, Treasury announced that it would at least double its planned buybacks of longer-dated bonds to help stabilize the market, ease pressure on yields, and support liquidity amid ongoing investor unease.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release Personal Income, Spending, and PCE data, including the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Markets will scrutinize the PCE data for signs of whether inflation is cooling or remains sticky, and the possible implications for the Fed's rate path.

The KC Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins on Wednesday. The theme is financial innovation and its implications for payments systems and monetary policy. Central bankers, academics, and policymakers from around the world will discuss how emerging technologies, digital currencies, and evolving payment infrastructures could reshape financial stability, cross-border transactions, and the broader conduct of central banking.

Policymakers will also address persistent challenges around inflation, growth, and global economic coordination. Fed Chairman Warsh is slated to speak on Friday. I'm also keen to hear what Isabel Schnabel of the ECB, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey have to say about balancing persistent price risks and mounting growth risks.

U.S. stocks are mixed to lower at the start of the week amid geopolitical and trade tensions, elevated bond yields, and a busy calendar. Key earnings this week include Nvidia on Wednesday, along with reports from Marvell Technology, Salesforce, and Intuit, which will provide important updates on AI spending and broader tech demand.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$39.62 (+0.86%)
5-Day Change: +$241.43 (+5.47%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,351.54 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +28.13

Gold begins the week with a fresh round of 14-week highs as mounting global fiscal concerns, trade tensions, and persistent geopolitical worries spur haven demand. While the dollar is trading higher today, last week's slide to 14-week lows continues to provide a tailwind for the yellow metal.



Seasonal influences are beginning to ramp up in support of gold, with rising jewelry and investment demand typically strengthening in the second half of the year ahead of major festivals and wedding seasons in India and other Asian markets. These traditional buying patterns often provide a tailwind for prices during late summer and fall, complementing other supportive factors such as a weaker dollar and safe-haven flows.

Investor interest continues to grow with global ETFs seeing net inflows of 46.7 tonnes last week. It was the seventh straight week of net inflows, and the biggest inflow since the 30-Jan week. This signals sustained institutional and retail conviction in gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.

“No one is above the reach of US sanctions. If they are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, they will be targeted,” warned Treasury Secretary Bessent. That dials up the heat on China, India, and Russia, but even those not buying Iranian oil may find that first part troubling. This could accelerate dedollarization and intensify official sector interest in gold.

The worsening overbought condition is seen as a potentially limiting short-term factor, but sights remain on the chart/Fibonacci resistance at $4,773.13/$4,777.59. This level is highlighted by the halfway back point of this year's corrective decline. Above that, the 13-Apr high at $4,886.18 would be in play.

Setbacks into the range will likely be viewed as buying opportunities. Today's Asian low at $4,640.63 marks initial support. More substantial support is found at $4,509.51 (Friday's low).


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.147 (-0.21%)
5-Day Change: +$3.483 (+5.29%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $38.103 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +51.81

Silver is consolidating last week's gains after buying interest faltered around $70. However, strength in gold, a weak dollar and a broadly constructive supply/demand picture continue to provide underpinnings for the white metal.



Heraeus notes that "Indian silver imports are beginning to recover as traders obtain licences under the new import regime." India's bullion exchange saw roughly 90 tonnes of silver imports so far in August, breaking a six-month dry spell where the exchange saw no silver come through at all.

A convincing move above $70 would bode well for a challenge of the rising 200-day MA at $72.341. Above the latter, the critical $80 level would be in play, which must be exceeded to truly return confidence to the underlying uptrend.

Silver has returned to the 100-day MA in early U.S. trading, setting new intraday lows, suggesting Friday's low at $67.954 is vulnerable to a retest. More important support at $65.647 (20-Aug low) looks to be protected at this point.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.