Gold and silver poised for lower weekly closes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. stocks are under pressure this Friday as the fallout from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s abrupt resignation continues to weigh on tech and AI names. The Nasdaq is lagging the other key indexes. Meanwhile, sticky wholesale inflation data keeps Fed rate-hike expectations firmly in focus.

Microsoft experienced a widespread global outage this week that disrupted key services including Outlook and Teams for many users. The disruption contributed to pressure on the company’s shares, which traded lower amid the broader market volatility.

PPI rose 0.3% in October, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +1.4% in September. The annualized rate rose to 6.5%, below expectations of 6.6%, from 6.3% in September. Core came in at +0.3%, in line with expectations, versus +0.8% in September; 5.0% y/y, in line and steady from September.

This week's inflation data are underpinning Fed rate hike expectations for December. Fed funds futures currently put the probability at 91.7%, versus 85.5% yesterday, 76.3% a week ago, and 69.3% a month ago. Just over 50 bps of tightening is implied through March.

Fed speakers this week leaned hawkish after the warm inflation data. Governor Christopher Waller opened the door to a possible 50 bp hike in December, while New York Fed President John Williams stressed that inflation remains “far too high” and the central bank still has “work to do.”

The dollar index continued its march higher, reaching fresh 19-month highs on Friday. The DX is poised for its third straight higher weekly close as hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish Fed comments have raised expectations for further rate hikes, lifting Treasury yields and attracting capital inflows to the greenback.



Oil prices swung this week amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and fresh disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran reported multiple oil tankers hit by explosions after allegedly ignoring warnings. Early hopes of de-escalation pushed crude lower (Brent reached a 10-week low), but President Trump’s comments that the U.S. “doesn’t need a deal” with Iran, combined with the tanker incidents and Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, later drove prices higher, adding to inflation concerns.

Next week, markets will primarily focus on Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report on Tuesday, which takes on added significance following the CEO’s resignation, as well as the expected IPO and trading debut of Anthropic later in the week. Investors will also closely watch October retail sales data, the release of the Fed’s October meeting minutes, and a slate of major retailer results including Home Depot, Disney, Target, and Walmart for clues on consumer strength heading into the key Christmas shopping season amid elevated rate-hike expectations.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$15.52 (+0.40%)
5-Day Change: -$181.21 (-4.46%)
YTD Range: $3,853.01 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,853.01 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -11.53

Gold is consolidating after falling to new 52-week lows on Thursday. The yellow metal is poised for its biggest weekly drop since June, and its nineth weekly loss out of the last dozen. Tighter Fed policy expectations, higher yields and a strong dollar continue to pose significant headwinds.



Post-PPI upticks met selling interest above $3,900, leaving gold well contained within yesterday's range. While we could see some further position squaring ahead of the weekend, upside potential looks limited. The market just feels heavy.

Thursday's low at $3,853.01 marks first support. Below that, a weekly low from September 2025 at $3760.05 would attract. The next major level of support is the 50% retracement level of the entire post-COVID rally at $3,605.58.

The 50-day moving average crossed back below the 100-day this week, adding to the technical pressure. The moving average picture confirms the dominant near-term bearish trend.

The bull camp has to be pretty discouraged at this point. While robust and ongoing central bank gold purchases provide some underpinning, the market may need to seek a level where investors sense a bargain.

I still think gold needs to clear chart resistance at $4,217.02/$4,225.02 to suggest that a bottom is in place. That's well over $300 away at this point, with some solid resistances in the way.

Today's Asian high at $3,923.01 protects Thursday's high at $4,000.97. Above that, the declining 20-day MA at $4,023.89 and Wednesday's high at $4,066.56 stand in front of the more important high for the week at $4,184.18.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.046(-0.09%)
5-Day Change: -$2.050 (-3.95%)
YTD Range: $48.624 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $48.624 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -18.78

Silver is down 2% today and on its way to a lower weekly close as this week's inflation data stoked hawkish Fed expectations, lifting yields and the dollar. While the white metal has not taken out last week's low, the downside continues to look quite vulnerable.



This week’s Nvidia leadership turmoil and the resulting AI-sector selloff have fueled risk-off flows that also weighed on silver, with the metal declining alongside gold as investors raised cash amid broader market uncertainty. While silver retains some industrial exposure to electronics and data-center applications tied to AI infrastructure, the near-term pressure appears driven more by general risk aversion and a stronger dollar than by any immediate revision to long-term demand forecasts.

According to Metals Focus, the Chinese silver market has normalized following an exceptional start to 2026. After early-year tightness driven by a surge in retail investment and aggressive photovoltaic procurement ahead of April tax rebate changes, momentum has cooled. Consequently, import arbitrage windows closed, local premiums returned to discounts, and combined exchange inventories rebounded to 2,225 tonnes by the end of October.

According to the Silver Institute, the silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, with demand forecast to exceed mine and recycling supply by 35 Moz. Demand from manufacturers, jewelers and bar-and-coin investors is projected to fall 5% to 1.08 billion oz. Demand for silver in photovoltaic panels is set to fall 21% as high prices encouraged solar manufacturers to reduce silver usage.

On the other hand, BMO anticipates a growing silver surplus when bar and coin investment is excluded from demand calculations, treating those holdings instead as potential above-ground stocks that can re-enter the market. As a result, the bank emphasizes that renewed and exceptionally strong investor demand will be essential to absorb the excess metal and provide meaningful support for prices, especially as industrial consumption from solar weakens.

With all of the gains over the past year now retraced, investors are understandably hesitant. The white metal has lost nearly 60% of its value since the January peak above $120, rattling both retail and institutional buyers. Many participants remain on the sidelines, wary of further downside amid shifting rate expectations and softer industrial demand.

Fresh lows for the year below $48.624 would target $48.000 initially, but potential would be to a minor low from last November at $46.885. Below the latter, the October 2025 low at $45.563 would be in play. Tuesday's high at $53.711 provides a solid upside barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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