While the CME Fed watch tool pegs the probability of rate cuts in the January, March, and May Fed meetings at 2.6%, 48.1%, and 50.1% respectively we feel there is a slightly higher whisper expectation for a rate cut in the market.

However, with the Feds favored inflation measure (PCE) scheduled for release today and expectations calling for a +0.2%, the prospect of a near-term cut in US rates should remain very small.

In fact, to see a rate cut by the June meeting will likely require some contractionary monthly PCE readings...[MORE]

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