8/13/2024

Gold flirts with record highs, while silver remains defensive 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that U.S. consumers see spending increasing at a slower 4.9% pace over the next 12 months. That's the smallest increase in spending since April 2021, when inflation was first taking hold.

July retail sales data come out on Thursday, so we'll see if consumers have started pulling back. The market is expecting a 0.4% m/m rise. We will also get earnings reports from some key retailers this week.

As consumers refuse to pay high prices and reduce spending inflation tends to cool. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations tumbled 0.6% to a new series low (since June 2013) of 2.3% in July. 

While it seems extremely likely that the Fed will cut rates in September, at least consumers think inflation will remain above the central bank's 2% target for several more years. If that's the case, while rates may come down, monetary policy will likely remain broadly restrictive for some time to come.

Home Depot's CFO says that consumers continue to have a “deferral mindset” when it comes to buying/selling homes and making home improvements due to high prices, high interest rates, and growing uncertainty about the economy. While Q2 earnings and sales beat expectations, guidance is calling for a decline of 3% to 4% in full-year comparable sales.

U.S. PPI rose 0.1% in July, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.2% in June; 2.2% y/y, down from a revised 2.7% in June. Core was unchanged, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in June; 2.4% y/y, down from 3.0% in June.

U.S. yields and the dollar slid in reaction as Fed easing expectations once again favor a 50 bps cut at the September FOMC meeting. Focus now turns to tomorrow's CPI release and import/export prices on Thursday.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, the 50-year average for the index is 98, and June was the 31st consecutive month below that average.

Inflation remains the most significant issue weighing on small business optimism. “Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

We'll hear FedSpeak from Atlanta Fed President Bostic this afternoon. Bostic is a fervent dove.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$9.83 (-0.40%)
5-Day Change: +$83.26 (+3.48%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +31.85

Gold breached resistance at $2,474.58 (02-Aug high) in overseas trading, establishing a fresh 4-week high at $2,476.29 before dipping back into the range. The yellow metal appears poised for new all-time highs, with just the $2,481.33 peak from 17-Jul left to beat.



Gold is back above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages and all are tracking higher once again. We just need new highs to confirm the uptrend is back underway after a very reasonable four-week corrective/consolidative phase.

I suspect gold will be tentative ahead of tomorrow's CPI print, but the technical picture is looking pretty good at this point. Even if there is a pullback into the range, I anticipate the lows will be higher and I would look for a continuation pattern to continue developing.

A confirmed upside breakout would target $2,500.00/$2,503.27 initially. Beyond that, $2,539.77 would attract based on a Fibonacci projection.

Initial support is defined by the overseas $2,459.42. There's some minor intraday support from yesterday at $2,440.37/$2,440.00, but the more substantial $2424.62/$2,417.83 zone appears to be well protected at this point.

Not surprisingly, last week's sharp sell-off led to outflows from gold ETFs. North Americans were the biggest sellers. Asian investors took advantage of lower prices and were net buyers.

 
Inflows in July were the largest in more than two years and it was the third consecutive month of net inflows. North Americans and Europeans led the charge. With mounting growth risks in the front of investors' minds, gold is likely to remain attractive portfolio diversification moving forward.

The most recent COT report showed speculative net positions declined further last week to 238.7k contracts, versus 246.6k in the previous week. It was the second consecutive decline from the near two-year high of 273.1k at the end of July.

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

I imagine this week's price action is wooing back at least some of those spec longs. New record highs would attract further buying interest.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.243(-0.87%)
5-Day Change: +$0.671 (+2.49%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +19.57

Silver was unable to sustain yesterday's gains and is currently trading more than 1% lower on the day. The white metal seems to be largely ignoring gains in the gold market.



This suggests that worries about global growth risk and demand destruction in the industrial sector are overwhelming the haven appeal of silver.

So far, today's price action remains confined to Monday's range. However, the fact that silver continues to attract selling interest on upticks leaves more important resistances at $29 and $30 well protected.

With the market still below the important 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, further attacks on the downside can not be ruled out. However, fresh highs in gold might prevent new cycle lows in silver below last week's low at $26.524.

A sharp drop in consumer inflation tomorrow might help the cause as well. That would heighten Fed rate hike expectations and weigh on the dollar.

The COT report for silver showed that net speculative positions held steady at 49.1k last week. I see that as somewhat encouraging given the magnitude of last week's decline.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

I think the specs are likely to remain cautious, even at these arguably attractive prices. If we see an increase in the net long position this week without making new lows, I'd be a little more confident about suggesting the low is in.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
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