10/01/2024

Gold rebounds from recent corrective losses on rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel has launched its anticipated ground incursion into Lebanon, to push Hezbollah forces further back from the border. Israel also revealed that its special forces had already conducted more than 70 small raids within Lebanon since the war began to destroy Hezbollah positions, tunnels, and weapons.

Besides strikes in Lebanon and Gaza, Israel has also attacked military targets in Yemen and Syria this week.

The AP is reporting that Iran is preparing to “imminently” launch a ballistic missile attack on Israel, citing senior administration officials. That same official warned that such an attack would have “severe consequences” for Iran.

The Pentagon announced on Monday that additional U.S. fighter jet squadrons were being sent to the Middle East. “The United States is committed to Israel’s defense,” said U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. As tensions rise, uncertainty about President Biden's mental acuity is particularly concerning.

NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte has pledged ongoing support for Ukraine. "We have to make sure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent, democratic nation," he said.

Rutte indicated he supported Ukraine's use of weapons supplied by alliance members to "strike legitimate targets on the aggressor's territory." 

Rutte also accused China of being a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war effort. "(China) cannot continue to fuel the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War without this impact in its interests and reputation," he said.

In Nashville on Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that policy is "not on any preset course," reiterating the Fed's data dependency. He noted that the labor market “clearly cooled over the last year.” The market is expecting a NFP print of +150k on Friday.

The JOLTS job openings increased 329k to 8,040k in August, versus a revised 7,711k in July. That's the highest print since May.

U.S. manufacturing PMI was revised to 47.3 in September, versus a preliminary print of 47.0. However, the final reading was down 0.6 points from 47.9 in August. "The US manufacturing sector moved deeper into contraction territory at the end of the third quarter of the year," said S&P. 

New orders saw the sharpest drop since June 2023. The employment component fell to 48.3, the lowest reading since June 2020, as "job shedding intensified."

U.S. manufacturing ISM was unchanged at 47.2 in September, below expectations of 47.5, and holding just above July's low at 46.8. Prices slid to a nine-month low of 48.3 from 54.0 in August.

U.S. construction spending fell 0.1% in August, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a negative revised -0.5% in July (was -0.3%). June was revised sharply lower to -1.1% from unchanged previously. 

Auto and light truck sales for September come out later today. The market is expecting 2.0M and 9.9M respectively.

Today marks the beginning of the Golden Week holiday in China. Many Chinese take advantage of factory and business closures to travel, although the recent tough economic times are expected to dull spending this year. Chinese markets are closed for the remainder of the week.  

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$15.10 (+0.57%)
5-Day Change: +$5.26 (+0.20%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,684.45
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,684.45
Weighted Alpha: +45.04

Gold has rebounded from recent corrective action on heightened haven demand stemming from the most recent developments in the Middle East. The yellow metal has moved back within $20 of last week's record high at $2,684.45 on reports that Iran has indeed fired missiles at Israel.



Friday's high at $2,673.67 is the next intervening resistance level to watch. If the U.S. becomes directly involved in the fight, gold could quickly go much higher.

Near-term potential remains to the $2,700.00/$2,709.14 objective. Psychological barriers at $2,800 and $2900 stand in front of the longer-term target at $3,000.

Goldman Sachs has raised their gold price forecast for early 2025 to $2,900 from $2,700. If things heat up in the Middle East we could see those levels before year end.

"We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, structurally higher central bank demand and gold's hedging benefits against geopolitical, financial, and recessionary risks," the bank said in a note.

Silver has recovered somewhat from recent corrective action, buoyed by gains in gold. While the white metal remains confined to yesterday's range thus far, further short-term probes above $32 are considered likely.



Silver gains are being muted by today's soft U.S. manufacturing data and safe-haven buying in the dollar. While I do expect some spillover haven buying in silver, the vast majority of silver demand comes from industry.

First resistance is marked by yesterday's high at $31.829, the penetration of which would favor a retest of last week's 12-year high at $32.657. Friday's high at $32.227 provides an additional intervening barrier.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
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