11/15/2024

Gold and silver rebound modestly but appear poised for a third straight weekly loss

I'm in Baltimore for the Whitman Winter Expo. I'm going to make today's commentary short and sweet so I can get to the show.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. Retail Sales rose 0.4% in October, above expectations of +0.3%, versus a positive revised +0.8% in September (was +0.4%). Ex-auto rose 0.1% on expectations of +0.4%, versus an upward revised +1.0% in September (was +0.5%)

U.S. Empire State Index surged 43.1 points to a 38-month high of 31.2 in November, well above expectations of -0.9, versus -11.0 in October. 

U.S. Import Price Index +0.3% in October, above expectations of  -0.1%, versus -0.4% in September. Ex-petro was +0.2%.

U.S. Export Price Index +0.8 in October, well above expectations of  -0.1%, versus a revised -0.6% in September.

Industrial Production and Business Inventories come out later this morning. FedSpeak is due from Collins and Williams.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$5.30 (+0.21%)
5-Day Change: -$114.38 (-4.26%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +27.34

Gold is trading modestly higher, looking to end its five-day losing streak, but will still notch a third consecutive lower weekly close. 



The yellow metal remains confined to yesterday's range thus far, but we could see some additional short-covering into the weekend as traders ring up profits on this week's more than 4% plunge.

A breach of yesterday's high at $2,580.58 could spark a move back to $2,600.00. However, at this point, I'm inclined to view upticks as corrective within the short-term downtrend.

Bears are likely to view a bounce as a selling opportunity. There may also still be some longs in the market contemplating a belated capitulation at a higher price.

That being said, I like the rebound off the 100-day moving average that we saw yesterday. It's just premature to suggest the low is in.

A further retracement back above $2,636.26 and more importantly $2,665.55 would return a measure of credence to the uptrend. However, I'm not expecting new record highs until Q1'25 at this point. Choppy range trading is likely to prevail for the remainder of 2024.

On the downside, fresh cycle lows below $2,541.42 would shift focus to the next level of significant support at $2,482.74, which marks a 38.2% retracement of this year's rally.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +0.244 (+0.80%)
5-Day Change: -$0.578 (-1.85%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $34.853
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +27.57

Silver managed a higher daily close yesterday and there's been some modest upside follow-through today. Nonetheless, the white metal appears destined for a third straight lower weekly close.



Silver needs to regain the $32 level to ease pressure on the downside and to suggest that the low is in. Intervening resistances are noted at $31.021 (13-Nov high) and $31.618 (50-day MA).

A breach of yesterday's low at $29.736 would allow for a true test of the $29.706 Fibonacci level. Below the latter, $29.00 and the 200-day moving average at 28.727 would be the attraction.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
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