1/9/2025

Gold higher for a third day on haven interest. Silver up for a seventh session on technical buying.

Today's submission will be brief as I'm on the road. If you're at the FUN Show in Orlando, text me at the number below, and let's meet up.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to foster risk-off sentiment. The market is looking ahead to tomorrow's U.S. jobs report in hopes of further clarification of the Fed's likely policy path this year.

President-elect Trump is reportedly considering declaring a national economic emergency once he's inaugurated. Such a move would give him the power to deploy the sweeping tariffs that were a hallmark of his campaign.

Not surprisingly, declaring an "economic emergency" - even if it's just a matter of political expediency - is contributing to risk aversion. There are concerns that the Trump tariffs will launch a global trade war and stoke inflation.

The minutes from the December FOMC meeting revealed that the Fed is concerned that Trump's policies may hinder their fight against inflation. Participants of the meeting "noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated."

FedSpeak is due from Harker, Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman today.

Challenger Layoffs plunged 33% to 38.8k in December from 57.7k in November. “Companies underwent extraordinary change in 2024 due to rapid technological advancement and shifting economic conditions. Most employers are anticipating additional uncertainty with the upcoming administration, which is leading to slower hiring and more layoffs in the short term from various sectors,” said Andrew Challenger, workplace expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$8.44 (+0.32%)
5-Day Change: +$19.82 (+0.75%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,677.26
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +28.15

Gold has added to gains after breaking into the upper half of the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range on Wednesday. The yellow metal is trading higher for a third straight session and reached a four-week high of $2,677.35 before coming under modest intraday selling pressure.



Scope is seen for short-term tests above $2,700, but rising yields and a strong dollar continue to be headwinds. The $2,691.13 high (13-Dec) corresponds closely with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern and provides an intervening barrier.

More substantial chart resistance is marked by the 12-Dec high at $2,723.70. A breach of this level would unlock a challenge of the all-time high at $2,789.68.

In a sign of improved investor appetite, the World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw net annual inflows in 2024. "In a year in which the gold price reached new all-time highs 40 times, global investor appetite for gold ETFs finally turned around, booking the first annual inflow in four years," said the WGC.

On the downside, I continue to watch the 50-day moving average at $2,649.91 on a close basis. Today's intraday low at $2,656.10 provides intervening support.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.224 (+0.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.887 (+3.00%)
YTD Range: $28.946 - $30.450
52-Week Range: $21.945 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +25.27

Silver continues to build on gains since the double-bottom at $28.802/$28.783. was confirmed last week with the breach of resistance at $29.885. A higher close today appears likely, which would be the seventh in a row.



The fact that the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 100-day is troubling for the bulls, but these MAs and a trendline at $30.706/821 may still be a short-term attraction. A push above $31 is needed to set a more neutral tone within the range, while $32 must be regained to reinvigorate the bull camp.

Good support is marked by the convergence of the 20- and 200-day moving averages at $29.922/921 and yesterday's low at $29.879. Today's intraday low at $30.037 offers an intervening barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.