2/27/2025

We're at the National Money Show in Atlanta through Saturday. Please stop by and see us at booth 212.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump has reaffirmed that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will begin on March 4. This contradicts indications from yesterday's cabinet meeting that they might be forestalled until April.

Q4 GDP was steady at 2.3% for the second report, but that is a significant deceleration from 3.1% in Q3. Q4 PCE was revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%, contributing to worries that tomorrow's PCE report for January will reveal that inflation is back on the rise.

Durable Goods Orders rose 3.1% in January on expectations of +1.9%, versus -1.8% in December.

Initial Jobless Claims jumped 22k to 242k in the 22-Feb week, above expectations of 224k, versus 220k in the previous week. Continuing claims fell from 1,867k to 1,862k. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$32.27 (-1.11%)
5-Day Change: -$65.04 (-2.21%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,955.40
52-Week Range: $2,025.28 - $2,955.40
Weighted Alpha: +35.84

Gold retreated to a two-week low, weighed by profit-taking ahead of Friday's important PCE report and a stronger dollar. Hotter-than-expected inflation could push Fed rate cut expectations back toward year-end, further buoying the dollar in the process.



I highlighted several red flags in Monday's commentary. Today's losses provide additional technical weight. We have an outside week (higher high, lower low) and have moved below the 20-day moving average.

While minor chart support at 12-Feb low at $2,869.08 (12-Feb low) is intact at this point, a close below the 20-day MA ($2,893.22) would suggest potential to $2,748.41 (50% retracement of the rally from $2,541,42 to $2,955.40).

Losses are still considered corrective within the long-term uptrend. Right now, the question is, how deep will the correction be before buyers step back in? We will know more after the PCE report tomorrow.

A close back above $2,900 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat. Monday's record high at $2,955.40 now marks solid resistance ahead of the still valid $3,000 objective.

Silver remains defensive below $32, weighed by losses in gold and a firmer dollar. Arguably, gold's strength had been a key underpinning for the white metal.


 
The low for the week set on Tuesday at $31.352 and the 100-day moving average at $31.259 are in jeopardy.  Penetration would shift focus to the halfway-back point of this year's rally at $31.062.

A close back above the 20-day MA at $32.144 would take pressure off the downside, but a short-term close above $33 is needed to revive enthusiasm for the long side.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.