Gold swings wildly on Trump tariff plan as uncertainty prevails

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: On Wednesday afternoon, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, stoking global growth, inflation, and trade war worries. Uncertainty prevails, leaving markets in turmoil.

Trump promised that the tariffs would bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., boost national security, and shrink the trade deficit. While he listed a host of companies that have already pledged significant investments in America, investors clearly have their doubts.

Fitch Ratings calculates that the average tariff rate charged on goods imported into the U.S. is increasing from 2.5% to 22%. “You can throw most forecasts out the door, if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time,” said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch, in an AP article.

Therein lies the rub. Nobody quite knows what the global impact of these new trade policies will be. Business decisions will be delayed until the dust settles. Investors will continue to migrate to safety.

Let the negotiations begin. It certainly behooves U.S. trading partners to do what's reasonable to maintain access to the world's largest consumer market. Let's hope calmer heads prevail, common ground is found, and deals are struck.

I heard a small business owner on the radio this morning say she has no idea how companies in her supply chain are going to be impacted by these new tariffs. That means she has no idea how her input costs might change, which makes business planning all but impossible.

Challenger Layoffs surged 103.2k to 275.2k in March, versus 172.0k in February. Announced government layoffs were 154.7k as DOGE cuts bite.

Trade Deficit narrowed by 6.1% to -$122.7 bln in February, outside expectations of -$109.0 bln, versus a revised -$130.7 bln in January (was -$131.4 bln).

Initial Jobless Claims fell 6k to 219k in the week ended 29-Mar, below expectations of 225k, versus 225k in the previous week. Continuing claims jumped 56k to1,903k in the 22-Mar week, versus 1,847l in the previous week.

Services PMI was revised up to 54.4 for March, versus a preliminary read of 54.3 and 51.0 in February. Prices went unrevised at 53.5, up from 51.6 in February.  

Services ISM fell 2.7 points to 52.8 in March, below expectations of  53.5, versus 53.5 in February. Prices moderated to 60.9 from 62.6 in February.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$30.02 (-0.96%)
5-Day Change: +$52.19 (+1.71%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,3,164.72
52-Week Range: $2,270.21 - $3,164.72
Weighted Alpha: +37.30

Gold reached a record high of $3,164.72 in Asian trading, driven by the initial reaction to President Trump's tariff announcement. However, as equities and the broader commodities market sold off, deleveraging pressures drove the yellow metal to a new low for the week at $3,061.72 before renewed buying interest developed.



Gold and other precious metals were specifically excluded from Trump's tariffs, which has led the contango in the futures market to nearly halve overnight. "The premium of Comex futures over London spot prices was last at around $20 per troy ounce compared with $43 on Wednesday. Usually, it is below $10," according to a Reuters article.

Gold stored in Comex warehouses surged to a record-high 44.5 Moz in recent months, a 2.6x increase over the 17.1 Moz held back in November. Flows to the U.S. were initially driven by tariff fears, but then became a self-perpetuating arbitrage.

Given the ongoing uncertainty, I don't know that gold is going to start flowing out of Comex any time soon. However, a diminished tariff threat and lower futures premiums should slow the inflows.

The climb in U.S. trading back above $3,100 takes some of the pressure off the downside. The midpoint of today's $103 range comes in at $3,113.22, and it was exceeded along with the 61.8% retracement level at $3,125.27.

While it's premature to suggest the corrective low is in, I find myself leaning in that direction. A breach of Tuesday's high at $3,147.41 would boost my confidence as it would also exceed the 78.6% retracement level.

At that point, I'd look for a retest of today's high and a continuation of the march toward $3,500. Today's setback allows us to refine short-term targets based on Fibonacci analysis to $3,192.74, $3,228.37.

Today's low at  $3,061.72 now protects Friday's low at $3,054.50. The 20-day MA at $3,022.46 stands in front of key short-term support at $3,003.62/$3,000.00.

Silver plunged in reaction to yesterday's tariff news, weighed by fears of a global trade war and mounting growth risks. The white metal was down more than 6% at one point and set a four-week low at $31.833. It was the biggest one-day (open to low) percentage drop since 4-Aug'24.



While gold has recovered more than half of the intraday losses as safe-haven seekers stepped back in to buy, silver, which derives most of its demand from industry, remains on the ropes. At this point, it will probably take fresh record highs in gold to provide some underpinning for silver.

The white metal took out both the 20- and the 50-day moving averages, leaving the downside vulnerable. Scope is seen for additional losses toward $31.658 (78.6% retrace of the rally from $30.873 to $34.543) and 31.454/31,386, where the 100-day and 20-week moving averages converge.

A climb back above $33 is needed to ease pressure on the downside. The midpoint of today's range is at $32.919, and the halfway back point of the whole decline from last week's high at $34.543 comes in at $33.188.

Silver was also excluded from tariffs, and like gold, the futures premium over spot has collapsed. The contango in front-month (May) silver futures is just 5¢ currently. It was 84¢ a week ago.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

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