6/16/2025

Gold prices surged back to $3,400 following reports that Iran is open to continuing nuclear negotiations with the U.S.

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel gained control of the skies over western Iran just 48 hours into the conflict. 

• This morning, U.S. stocks jumped and oil prices slid after reports that Iran is urgently looking to de-escalate tensions with Israel, boosting market sentiment. The Nasdaq rose over 1.3%, while crude dropped 2.5%, reversing some of the recent surge driven by the Middle East conflict.
• A Minnesota lawmaker, Melissa Hortman, and her husband, Mark, were shot and killed by a man posing as a police officer. The suspect, Vance Luther Boelter, is also linked to another shooting involving state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. He was arrested after a two-day manhunt and had been struggling with work while trying to start a security business.
• President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are still trying to hash out a trade deal as tensions over tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain. While some progress has been made, both sides say there’s still work to do before a final agreement is reached.

Key U.S. Economic Reports This Week (June 16–21)

• Tue, June 17 – 8:30 am ET: May Retail Sales

• Tue, June 17 – 9:15 am ET: Industrial Production

• Wed, June 18 – 2:00 pm ET: Fed Rate Decision

• Wed, June 18 – 2:30 pm ET: Powell Press Conference

• Thu, June 19 – 8:30 am ET: Jobless Claims

• Fri, June 20 – 8:30 am ET: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

GOLD

Gold eased slightly on Monday, hovering around the $3,400 per ounce mark after reaching a near two-month high. The pullback came as investors shifted toward risk assets, taking profits despite growing geopolitical concerns. Despite the softening in safe-haven demand, gold remains underpinned by a weaker U.S. dollar and subdued Treasury yields. The metal continues to hold key technical support, suggesting the broader uptrend may still have legs.

A breakout above the $3,440–$3,450 range could set the stage for a run toward $3,500. However, failure to stay above $3,400 might open the door to a deeper retracement, with $3,350 as the next potential support zone. This week, market focus will turn to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and developments in the Middle East, both of which could serve as key catalysts for gold’s next move.

This morning's U.S. jobs report showed slower job growth in May, with 139,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The softer data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates later this year, which tends to support gold prices. Traders are now watching this week’s Fed meeting and developments overseas for further direction.

Silver prices have been consolidating recently, reflecting a natural pause after a strong upward move. This pause allows the market to stabilize and evaluate whether the recent gains can be sustained. The $37 level is a key resistance point for silver, and breaking above it could lead prices toward $40. On the downside, if silver falls below $35.48, it might test support near $34, suggesting caution for traders.

Market volatility remains high, so managing risk with careful position sizing is important. Traders should stay attentive to price movements and be ready to adjust their strategies. Looking forward, a move above $37 could signal a continuation of the upward trend toward $40. Without a clear catalyst or increased trading volume, however, silver may continue to trade within its current range.

The silver market faces its fifth straight annual supply deficit, though the shortfall is expected to shrink by 21% in 2025, keeping supply tight and prices supported. Meanwhile, escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has added to market volatility, as investors also await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to remain steady.