Despite slightly supportive early dollar action both gold and silver are tracking lower perhaps because of concern for the ECB rate decision early today. In the latest survey, the trade attaches a 63% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike by the ECB.

The action in the gold and silver markets yesterday should have been extremely discouraging for the bull camp as the markets dodged what appeared to be a very hot headline US CPI reading without rekindling fear of a US rate hike next week.

In fact, the CME Fed Watch tool before the report had a 93% probability the Fed would be on hold, with the probability of being on hold rising to 97% after the report was digested...[MORE]

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