Gold and silver are poised for higher weekly and monthly closes amid persistent haven interest

Outside Market Developments: Hotter-than-expected PPI data for January reinforce expectations that the Fed is on hold into H2, weighing on stocks and generally sapping risk appetite. The next 25 bps rate cut is not fully priced until September.

The 0.8% monthly rise in core PPI is particularly concerning as it was well above expectations of +0.3%. Annualized core PPI accelerated to 3.6%, above expectations of 3.0%, versus 3.3% in December.

Initial jobless claims, released on Thursday, revealed a 4k increase to 212k for the week ended 21-Feb. While that was inside expectations of 215k, Block's announcement of massive layoffs (over 40% of its workforce) to pivot toward AI efficiency has amplified worries about workforce disruptions.

The February jobs report, slated for release next Friday, will be a highlight in the week ahead. Median expectations for nonfarm payrolls are +60k, on the heels of January's impressive beat. Although if history is any indication, negative back-month revisions are likely. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, while the consensus for hourly earnings is +0.3%.

The latest round of Iran nuclear talks in Geneva did not result in any breakthroughs, heightening speculation of imminent U.S. and/or Israeli military action. The U.S. State Department has authorized the voluntary departure of non-critical personnel and family members from the embassy in Israel. Additionally, the USS Ford carrier strike group reportedly arrived on station off the coast of Israel today.

Given evidence of a recurring pattern where Trump acts on Fridays and over weekends, presumably to minimize market impact, tensions are high. "I'd love not to use [the U.S. military to attack Iran], but sometimes you have to," Trump said on Friday.



GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.51 (+0.01%)
5-Day Change: +$132.44 (+2.59%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +88.53

Gold continues to retrace late-January/early-February corrective losses and is poised for its fourth consecutive higher weekly close. February will also mark the yellow metal's seventh straight higher monthly close.



According to Dillon Gage, it will be the "longest monthly rally streak in 50 years." BarChart shows a slightly lower close in July '25, which is also reflected in LBMA month-end data. Whether we're talking seven months or eight months, it's been an impressive run.

The World Gold Council released a report this week called, Why gold in 2026? A cross-asset perspective, showing the yellow metal significantly outperformed other major asset classes in 2025 and continues to do so in 2026.

 

"Risk assets are sitting at uneasy highs against a backdrop of a world in turmoil. Yes, there are a host of tailwinds that should support a revival in growth throughout the year, including easier monetary policy and the global fiscal boost. But the consensus narrative of a global economy that has proved “robust” in the face of tariffs and turmoil underestimates the very real risks that remain," according to the WGC.

Friday's upside extension to fresh four-week highs returns additional credence to the underlying uptrend. Sights remain on $5,300 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $5.340.72. An eventual breach of the latter would bode well for a push to new all-time highs.

A minor intraday support at $5,214.80 protects $5,200 and the overseas low at $5,132.43. More important support marked by the low for the week at $5,097.57 should help keep the once again rising 20-day moving average at $5,018.60.

The trade is likely to continue focusing on buying into corrective setbacks within the range. At this point, it would probably take material progress toward an Iran deal to temper the haven bid.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.704 (+1.93%)
5-Day Change: +$8.362 (+9.89%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +225.34

Silver posted strong gains on Friday and is up more than 10% on the week, buoyed by ongoing haven interest amid mounting risk of military action against Iran, and signs of persistently sticky inflation. The white metal is poised for a second straight higher weekly close and its tenth consecutive higher monthly close.



Despite the stunning near halving of the price early in the month, conviction in the underlying uptrend seems to be growing, amid industrial demand tailwinds and ongoing supply tightness narratives. Silver moved back into the upper half of the massive $121.63/$64.14 range on Friday, trading at levels not seen since the plunge on 30-Jan.

While conditions are likely to remain quite volatile, the latest round of gains bolsters confidence in the scenario that calls for a return to the $99.669/$100 zone. The 20-day moving average will rotate higher for the first time since 4-Feb. If the 20-day can climb back above the 50-day in early March, it will provide additional encouragement to the bull camp.

Initial support is marked by an intraday low at $92.409. Below that, $92.000 and 91.602 should help keep the $90 level protected. A failure to sustain gains would suggest scope for further choppy consolidation within the range.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.