Gold and silver set for third straight lower weekly closes

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S.-Israel joint military campaign against Iran is on the verge of entering its fourth week. U.S. and Israeli forces expanded strikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting naval assets, defense industries, ballistic missile production, internal security forces, and key energy infrastructure, including the South Pars gas field.

Iran has retaliated with repeated ballistic missile barrages on Israel and attacks on Gulf energy facilities in neighboring countries. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, capable of processing around 730,000 barrels of oil per day, was hit by a multi-wave drone attack.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, and both sides increasing attacks on energy infrastructure targets, oil prices remain well above $100. U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island have avoided the key oil export terminal thus far, but one would imagine that it becomes an increasingly tempting target as the war drags on. However, the more infrastructure is destroyed, the longer oil prices will remain elevated, even after the war ends.

American aircraft also reportedly struck Iranian hardened missile sites along the coastline near the Strait of Hormuz using 5,000-pound deep-penetrator munitions. Meanwhile, President Trump has had some success in rallying naval support from NATO members, European nations, Japan, and others to help reopen and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The Pentagon announced today the accelerated deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship, along with two other amphibious warships and approximately 2,500 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. While President Trump reiterated there would be "no boots on the ground" in Iran, bolstering amphibious capabilities in the region provides the options for limited coastal operations to deter Iranian interference with global energy supplies without committing to a full-scale ground invasion.

Seven major central banks announced policy this week. Most held steady, amid data-dependent uncertainty. However, hawkish tilts associated with energy-driven inflation risks were evident.

The RBA was the exception, raising its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% (second consecutive hike). "While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. Information since the February meeting suggests that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation," according to the policy statement.

The prospects for Fed rate cuts this year have steadily eroded as inflation remains stubbornly high. This week's hotter-than-expected February PPI release (+0.7% MoM and 3.4% YoY headline) heightened concerns further, as the data –largely compiled before the late-February escalation of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran – already captured elevated prices for wholesale goods and services without the full impact of surging energy prices that have since driven oil sharply higher.

Fed funds futures are currently not pricing in any rate cuts in 2026. In fact, there doesn't seem to be much of a chance of easing through H1'27. Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the possibility of the next move being an increase "did come up at the meeting, as it did at the last meeting," though he stressed it's not the base case for the "vast majority" of officials.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.02 (-0.17%)
5-Day Change: -$456.40 (-9.09%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,961.83 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +45.99

Gold has traded lower every day this week, down more than 9% from last Friday's close. The yellow metal is poised for its third consecutive lower weekly close, weighed by generally hawkish tilts by a number of major central banks, amid rising concerns about energy prices and inflation.



While safe-haven interest and a modestly weaker dollar provide some underpinning, this week's losses put gold decisively back in the lower half of the $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range that formed earlier in the year. The 100-day moving average was meaningfully penetrated on Thursday, and it looks like today we'll see our first close below the 100-day since late 2024.

Note that in 2024, the 100-day caught up with the market during a consolidative period, and it did not signal an end to the long-term uptrend at all. The foray below the 100-day MA  back then was brief, and the uptrend ultimately resumed.

That's what is happening now, although the range is far broader this time around. Arguably, the range low at $4,406.69 will be vulnerable to a test next week. However, evidence that efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz will be successful could relieve some of the upward pressure on oil, stemming concerns about higher-for-longer rates and providing a headwind for the dollar.

If $4,406.69 does give way, focus would shift initially to the 31-Dec'25 low at $4,275.24. Below the latter, $4,200 would be in play.

A rebound above $4,800 is needed to truly ease pressure on the downside and revive confidence that the corrective low is in place. Intervening resistances are noted at $4,612.81 and Friday's high at $4735.31.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.149 (-1.58%)
5-Day Change: -$11.162 (-13.85%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +99.34

Silver traded below $70 on Friday for a second straight session, weighed by concerns about central bank hawkishness. While the dollar index is lower on the week, it remains up more than 2% in March, near the 100 level. Like gold, the white metal is on track for a third straight weekly loss. 



The magnitude and momentum of this week's losses raise serious doubts that the $64.140 range low will hold. The bull camp's confidence remains rattled from the crazy volatility earlier in the year, and they know that follow-through below $64.140 will be measured in dollars.

Emboldened shorts, on the other hand, are keen to run the stops below the range low. If $64.140 gives way, potential would be to the $60 zone.

A rebound above $70 would take some of the pressure off the downside, but the midpoint of the range (if it holds) at $80.267 is the more important level when it comes to returning some measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Intervening resistances are noted at 74.535 (20-Mar high) and 76.690 (19-Mar high).


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.