Gold and silver start the week slightly defensive after peace talks break down

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Middle East tensions are back on the rise, after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down over the weekend. Each side is blaming the other for the failure to reach a deal.

While the fragile two-week ceasefire remains in place, the Trump administration moved quickly to ramp up economic pressure on Iran. The U.S. Navy has been ordered to blockade Iranian ports and interdict vessels entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz that have paid the Iranian toll.

Oil prices have rebounded as prospects for a peace deal evaporated, reviving inflation worries and expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Nonetheless, risk appetite is displaying some resilience, amid hopes that the blockade will force the Iranians back to the bargaining table.

Tuesday's PPI report is likely to reinforce inflation concerns ignited by last week's hot CPI print. Consensus for PPI is +1.2% m/m and 4.6% y/y, versus +0.7% m/m and 3.4% y/y in February. 

War headlines and inflation developments will dominate market attention this week. Q1 2026 earnings season also kicks off, led by major bank results and key reports from the technology and semiconductor sectors. Investors will closely watch how resilient these sectors are in the face of the recent oil shock. Volatility is expected to remain elevated all week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$26.45 (-0.56%)
5-Day Change: +$76.94 (+1.65%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +41.13

Gold retreated into the range after the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed after just 21 hours. However, persistent hopes for a speedy diplomatic resolution and a soft dollar provide some underpinning.



The 20-day moving average successfully contained overseas losses, and combined with the subsequent rebound back above the 100-day, there's some cause for technical optimism. I'd like to see a close above the 100-day today, followed by renewed tests above $4,800.

A breach of last week's high at $4,853.18 would clear the way for a challenge of the $4,900.07/$4,915.17 zone, where the 50-day MA closely aligns with an important retracement level. Beyond the latter, the $5,000 area would be back in play.

Investors expressed optimism last week with a second straight week of net inflows into gold ETFs. All regions were net buyers.

Monday's overseas low at $4,645.10 and the 20-day MA at $4,642.21 mark initial supports. Penetration of these levels would highlight the $4,600 zone, with potential to the 2-Apr low at $4,555.08.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.517 (-2.00%)
5-Day Change: +$1.093 (+1.50%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +112.29

Silver begins the week on the back foot after rising in four of five sessions last week. While the failure of peace negotiations provides a headwind, the market is holding out hope that a deal will be reached in fairly short order.



A weaker dollar and optimism about tech sector earnings provide support. Silver is a critical industrial metal used heavily in semiconductors, electronic components, data center infrastructure, and high-efficiency solar panels. As investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence grows, demand for powerful servers, advanced chips, and massive new data centers is surging.

At the same time, the enormous energy needs of AI are accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar, for which silver is an essential material in photovoltaic cells. This dual demand (electronics + green energy) creates a strong fundamental tailwind for silver, even in uncertain macroeconomic environments.

The white metal needs to regain the 100-day moving average on a closing basis to return a measure of confidence to the underlying uptrend. Such a move would bode well for a rebound above $80. Fibonacci resistance at $82.887 is an important trigger for putting $100 back in play.

Monday's overseas low at $72.792 corresponded closely with the 20-day MA at $72.883. Secondary support is well defined by last week's low at $69.859.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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