Gold, silver, and platinum reach record levels in thin post-holiday trading

Outside Market Developments: Market conditions are thin with most European markets, and London closed for Boxing Day. Risk appetite remains elevated in post-Christmas trading, with investors eagerly anticipating a Santa Claus rally into early 2026.

The standout story today continues to be the blistering rally in precious metals, driven by investment demand, supply tightness, geopolitical risks, safe-haven interest, and the debasement trade. Gold, silver, and platinum all set record highs. Palladium traded above $2,000 for the first time in more than three years.

Despite this week's better-than-expected advance Q3 GDP and initial jobless claims prints, the trade continues to anticipate additional Fed easing in the new year. Fed funds futures are currently implying 56 bps of cuts by year-end 2026, with the first probably not until June.

Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May'26, and President Trump is widely expected to appoint an ardent dove who will facilitate his desire to run the economy hot. Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett are believed to be front-runners amid persistent worries about a loss of Fed independence.

The dollar remains defensive, weighed by monetary policy expectations, divergences with other central banks, and political and trade policy uncertainty. This is prompting foreign investors to rotate out of U.S. assets.



The dollar index set a 12-week low earlier in the week. More than 61.8% of the Sep-Nov corrective rally has now been retraced, suggesting the dominant downtrend is reasserting itself. A breach of the 97.20/12 zone would clear the way for a retest of the 96.22 low from 17-Sep.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$30.33 (+0.68%)
5-Day Change: +$187.66 (+4.32%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $4,532.71
52-Week Range: $2,597.53 - $4,532.71
Weighted Alpha: +75.13

Gold continues to push into uncharted territory, probing above $4,500 in thin post-holiday trading conditions. The yellow metal is poised for a third consecutive higher weekly close.



Gold is now up 74% year-to-date, on par with the post-gold-standard record gains in 1972, 1973, and 1974. The record annual gain occurred in 1979, when the yellow metal surged more than 130% amid soaring inflation, the Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

With the $4,515.63 Fibonacci objective exceeded, focus shifts to the next Fibonacci threshold at $4,686.61. Beyond the latter, a measuring objective at $4,729 and the $5,000 target are looking increasingly attractive with attainment possible in Q1'26.

Initial support is marked by Wednesday's high at $4,525.37, which protects the $4503.80/4500.00 level. Friday's Asian low at $4,469.38 appears to be well protected for now. Focus is likely to remain on buying strategies into next week, although there could be some profit-taking ahead of year-end. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.558 (+3.56%)
5-Day Change: +$8.175 (+12.18%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $75.618
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $75.618
Weighted Alpha: +195.25

Silver is up more than 5% in thin post-holiday trading and on track for its fifth straight higher weekly close. The white metal continues to be spurred by bullish supply/demand dynamics, AI/tech sector optimism, expectations for looser monetary policy next year, a weak dollar, and robust investment demand.



Silver's weighted alpha reading is approaching 200, signalling exceptionally strong and accelerating bullish momentum. I've never seen a weighted alpha reading this high in the metals!

The rise above $75 shifts focus to the next Fibonacci objective at $77.770. Beyond that, $80 would be in play.

Minor intraday support is found at $75.00/$74.92. Below that, Wednesday's high at $72.704 protects more substantial support at $70.229/127. The latter looks to be out of play at this point, although year-end profit-taking remains a downside risk. That being said, I sure wouldn't want to try to pick a top in this market.

PGMs

Platinum surged to new record highs above $2,400, driven by fundamentals similar to those in the silver market. The market is experiencing its third consecutive annual deficit (estimated at 692,000 ounces, or nearly 9% of demand). Production is heavily concentrated in South Africa (~70-80%), which has faced disruptions from political instability, heavy rains, flooding, persistent power issues, and declining ore grades.

On the demand side, President Trump ended Federal tax credits for electric vehicles, and his "drill baby drill" policies have driven down the price of gasoline, dimming the appeal of EVs. Additionally, the EU succumbed to intense pressure from German and Italian automakers, softening its edict for a 100% reduction in tailpipe CO₂ emissions by 2035.

These factors combine to support longer-term demand for hybrids and conventional internal combustion vehicles, although this is likely to occur with ever-higher emission standards and therefore higher PGM loading.

Palladium tested above $2,000 for the first time since November 2022.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.