Gold straddles the 20-day moving average on the first trading day of 2026 5-Day Change: -$175.10 (-3.86%) YTD Range: $4,324.76 - $4,402.22 52-Week Range: $2,621.42 - $4,532.71 Weighted Alpha: +64.08 Gold ended 2025 with a 65.9% gain, its best annual percentage performance since 1979. The yellow metal posted gains in 11 of 12 months in 2026. Only July saw a monthly decline, and it was a scant -0.38%.  This remarkable rally was fueled by factors including persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, central bank easing campaigns, a weaker dollar, trade uncertainties under President Trump, and robust investor inflows into gold ETFs, positioning it as the top-performing major asset class for the year. These bullish factors are likely to remain in place early in the new year. Price action has been corrective to consolidative over the past week, which has relieved the overbought condition somewhat. The underlying trend remains bullish, and I'm encouraged by the fact that gold has thus far been unable to sustain tests below the 20-day moving average. While it's premature to suggest a corrective low is in, investors will likely continue to look for buying opportunities on dips. I'm watching the 20-day MA at $4,344.92 on a close basis. A minor chart point at $4,308.75 protects the more important low for the week at $4,275.24. If the latter were to give way, potential to the $4,200 zone would have to be considered. On the upside, today's failed test back above $4,400 reinforces the $4,403.98/$4,412.51 resistance zone, which is highlighted by the 30-Dec high and the halfway back point of the corrective decline. Penetration of this area is needed to ease pressure on the downside and provide some encouragement to the bull camp. A breach of the 61.8% retracement level at $4,444.90 would clear the way for renewed tests above $4,500. Above that, the record high at $4,532.71 and the revised Fibonacci objective at $4,624.44 are in play. I still believe we can see $5,000 gold in Q1. SILVER OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.750 (+3.85%) 5-Day Change: -$5.475 (-6.91%) YTD Range: $71.429 - $74.552 52-Week Range: $28.565 - $86.637 Weighted Alpha: +180.09 Silver posted a gain of 146.7% in 2025, more than doubling the annual performance of gold. Like gold, it was the largest annual percentage gain since 1979. The white metal notched monthly gains in 10 of 12 months in 2025.  The stunning ascent was propelled by a confluence of surging industrial demand (from solar panels, EVs, AI components, and electronics), persistent supply deficits, massive ETF inflows exceeding 4,000 tons, safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions, global central bank easing, a weaker dollar, Fed rate cuts, and momentum trading that fueled repeated all-time highs and hair-raising volatility. Broad trade uncertainty in 2025 was also a contributing factor. China, the world's second-largest miner and exporter of silver, implemented stricter silver export controls effective January 1, 2026. Exporters are now required to obtain special government licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, but only 44 approved large companies qualify. While demand is expected to continue outpacing supply in 2026, which bodes well for the upside, arguably the market got ahead of itself in late 2025. I'd like to see the market consolidate in the $80/$65 range for several weeks. Once some reliable support levels have been established, the bulls are likely to start buying again with confidence. So far, the $70 level is holding on the downside, but the 20-day MA around $68 may be a short-term attraction. A convincing breach of the 20-day would suggest potential down to the $65 zone. Today's European high at $74.552 provides an intervening barrier ahead of $75 and recent highs at $76.403 (31-Dec) and $78.046 (30-Dec). The halfway back point of the recent correction comes in at $78.600 and is thought to be the key for reviving confidence in the underlying uptrend. Peter A. Grant Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist Zaner Metals LLC 312-549-9986 Direct/Text [email protected] www.zanermetals.com Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted. |