Blog

3/26/2025

Gold and silver consolidate recent gains, but uptrends remain highlighted

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Trump administration's ever-changing positions on tariffs and trade continue to stoke market uncertainty. Concerns that these policies will weigh on economic growth and revive inflation have heightened risk aversion and contributed to market volatility.

Consumption is the major driving force behind the U.S. economy, and high levels of uncertainty have eroded consumer sentiment in recent months. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index tumbled 7.2 points in March to a four-year low of 92.9.

"Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q1 remained in negative territory at -1.8% for the 18-Mar reading, and the blue chip consensus has fallen below +2.0%. An update is slated for today.

The NY Fed's NowCast continues to paint a rosier picture, with a 2.72% Q1 estimate on 21-Mar.

Prospects for a June Fed rate cut have risen lately. The implied Fed funds rate for December is currently 3.7475%, reflecting expectations for 63 bps in easing by year-end.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes there is more work to be done on inflation, but sees policy uncertainties complicating the Fed's job. Nonetheless, he still thinks the central bank "ought to be able to reduce interest rates further" in the next year or two.

Russia and Ukraine have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. "All parties have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," said Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

A broader ceasefire and peace deal remain elusive. However, this limited agreement is arguably progress and dials down the temperature in the region somewhat.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 2.0% in the 21-Mar week, versus -6.2% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate ticked down to 6.71%.

Durable Orders unexpectedly rose 0.9% in February, well above expectations of -1.2%, versus a revised +3.3% in January (was +3.1%). Ex-trans rose 0.7%, and shipments were +1.2%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$3.55 (+0.12%)
5-Day Change: -$21.19 (-0.70%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,056.51
52-Week Range: $2,174.69 - $3,056.51
Weighted Alpha: +36.79

Gold is consolidating above $3,000 and within striking distance of last week's record high of $3,056.51. The yellow metal continues to be underpinned by haven interest stemming from tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks.



Four sessions of corrective/consolidative price action have somewhat relieved the overbought condition that developed last week. While further tests of the downside can not be ruled out, the trade should continue to view setbacks as buying opportunities.

The market is certainly good as long as it's above $3,000. A minor secondary chart point is noted at $2,982.85/$2,980.54. More important support is marked by the previous high at $2,955.40, which is now bolstered by the 20-day moving average at $2,960.12.

A short-term breach of last week's high at $3,056.51 would lend additional credence to the bullish scenario that calls for a push to $3,100. Beyond that, the next Fibonacci objective at $3,149.84 attracts.

BofA has upgraded its 2025 gold forecast to $3,063 from $2,750 previously. They now see gold at $3,350 in 2026, a $725 increase over their previous forecast of $2,625!

The bank believes the yellow metal could climb to $3,500 in the next two years if investment demand increases by 10%. They also think central banks could increase gold reserves from current levels around 10% to 30%! That would provide a huge tailwind for gold that could take prices beyond $4,000 in my opinion.

Recent ETF inflows suggest investors do indeed have increased interest in gold. Global ETF inflows were 31.3 tonnes last week, with North American investors accounting for nearly all of that. It was the eighth consecutive weekly inflow.

ETF.com data revealed that flows into the GLD ETF reached $2 billion on Monday. "This rush into gold signals a broader shift in sentiment—investors are diversifying away from U.S. assets, concerned about rising geopolitical risks, trade tensions and central bank policies that may further weaken the dollar," wrote CFP Kent Thune on ETF.com. 

"As gold strengthens, a self-reinforcing cycle has emerged: A weaker U.S. dollar makes gold more attractive to global investors, driving up demand, which in turn pushes prices higher and further erodes confidence in the dollar," added Thune.

Silver set a new high for the week at $33.897 in early U.S. trading before retreating into the range. The white metal continues to be underpinned by Chinese stimulus and German spending expectations.



Soaring copper prices are providing additional lift to silver. The two markets are pretty tightly correlated, as silver is primarily a byproduct of copper mining.

Copper has reached record highs on worries about shortages and front-running ahead of impending tariffs. Additionally, Glencore declared force majeure on shipments from its Altonorte smelter in Chile due to a furnace issue.

A climb back above $34 would bode well for the continuation of the uptrend off the December lows. A breach of last week's high at $34.208 would bode well for the expected retest of the more than 22-year high set in October at $34.853. Beyond the latter, the $35.348 high from October 2012 would be in play.

Today's overseas low at $33.570 marks first support. More substantial supports at $32.904 (Monday's low) and $32.767 (Friday's low) appear well protected at this point. The 20-day MA is at $32.930 and bolsters the secondary support zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retreat from recent highs

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Fed is in a bit of a bind after the FOMC's SEP revealed slower growth projections and hotter projections for inflation. Suddenly the financial press is rife with headlines that mention 'stagflation'.

The FOMC policy statement noted, "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased."  Fed Chairman Powell thinks inflation is on the rise "partly in response to tariffs."

“Tariffs, raise prices and reduce output. So that’s a stagflationary impulse, which is different from saying this is stagflation,” said Chicago Fed President Goolsbee this morning on CNBC. Goolsbee still believes rates will be lower than they are today over the next 12 to 18 months.

Fed funds futures are leaning toward a 25 bps rate cut in June, but it is not fully priced in. The implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 3.6475%, suggesting the market believes there will be nearly 75 bps in cuts between now and then.

It's a quadruple-witching Friday with nearly $5 trillion in options expiring today, including for gold ETFs. The market is expecting high volume and high volatility today. Weak earnings already have shares on defense amid elevated risk aversion.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$13.90 (-0.46%)
5-Day Change: +$26.44 (+0.89%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,056.51
52-Week Range: $2,159.42 - $3,056.51
Weighted Alpha: +39.48

Gold is defensive at the end of the week on profit-taking ahead of the weekend and options expiration-related activity. The yellow metal is still trading higher on the week and a close above $2,985.00 would confirm a third straight higher weekly close.



The World Gold Council estimated earlier in the week that there were "roughly US$8bn in net delta-adjusted notional in options contracts from US gold ETFs that expire Friday 21 March, and US$16bn in options on futures that expire on 26 March."

Today's setback comes a day after gold reached its latest record high at $3,056.51. The $3,049.34 measuring objective was satisfied and modestly exceeded. The next upside targets are at $3,100.00 and $3,149.84 (261.8% retracement of the most recent corrective move).

The WGC's Taylor Burnette makes an interesting observation in the report linked above: "Gold has remained, on average, above previous multiples of US$500/oz for nine days before pulling back. At the same time, however, gold has rebounded above the same level in just a few days four out of five times."

At this point, gold has registered four consecutive closes above $3,000. Do we have several more days above $3,000 in the offing, or is time for a multi-day pullback? Today's close may offer some insight.

Burnette also notes that it has taken gold 1,700 days on average, to achieve previous US$500/oz increments. However, the move from $2,500 to $3,000 took just 210 days. While gold's ongoing rise makes that $500 increment an ever-shrinking percentage of the gold price, it's still reflective of strong momentum.

Safe-haven interest in gold is likely to remain elevated amid ongoing trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks. Central bank demand also seems likely to remain strong this year.

Worries about revived inflation – even as global monetary policy remains biased toward easing – provide further support to gold. The recent drop in the dollar index to five-month lows lends additional credence to the bullish scenario.

President Trump signed an Executive Order on Thursday to boost American mineral production, streamline permitting, and enhance national security. “Minerals” covered by the order include critical minerals, uranium, copper, potash, gold, and any other element, compound, or material as determined by the Chair of the NEDC, such as coal.

While the prospect of increased supply may be contributing to today's setback, the fact that gold was specifically mentioned by the White House is an acknowledgment of the yellow metal's strategic importance. I view this as bullish for the metals.

Keep an eye on support at $3,003.04/$3,000.00 today. A close below this level would shift focus to the next tiers of support at $2,982.85/80.54 and $2.955.40.

Silver is trading lower for a third straight session after this week's gains faltered above $34. The white metal appears poised for its first lower weekly close in three amid heightened risk-off sentiment.

 

Germany's plans to borrow and spend on defense and infrastructure cleared the final Parliamentary hurdle today. So we may be seeing a bit of "sell the fact" in silver today. I still see German spending and Chinese stimulus as broadly supportive to the commodities complex.

While silver wasn't specifically mentioned in the executive order about increasing U.S. mineral production, it almost assuredly is considered a critical element. Silver tends to be closely correlated with both copper and gold.

The dive back below $33 leaves the 20-day moving average at $32.698 vulnerable to a test. I suspect renewed buying interest will surface ahead of $32, leaving last week's low at $31.872 protected.

Fresh cycle highs above Tuesday's peak at $34.208 would bode well for the scenario that still calls for a retest of the 22-year high set in October at $34.853. Beyond that, the $35.348 high from October 2012 would be in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold remains well bid awaiting Fed decision

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Fed will announce policy later today. Despite rising uncertainty associated with trade and tariffs, the FOMC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

This will leave the market to focus on the forward guidance, economic projections, and Powell's presser. Recent action in Fed funds futures suggests the market is positioned for a hawkish hold.

The BoJ held steady on rates in line with expectations. The central bank expressed concerns about "high uncertainties...including the evolving situation regarding trade and other policies."

The BoE will also likely be on hold when they announce policy on Thursday. Amid rising trade and geopolitical tensions, a dovish tilt seems likely.

President Trump said he had a "very good call” with Putin on Tuesday with Russia agreeing to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy and infrastructure targets, and a prisoner exchange. “The next thing would be a full ceasefire and a deal,” Trump said.

Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are speaking today. Zelensky has expressed his desire to reach a peace deal. 

Israel broke the ceasefire with Hamas on Tuesday, launching airstrikes against numerous targets throughout Gaza. President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu laid the blame on Hamas for their refusal to release the remaining hostages and return to the negotiating table.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.99 (+0.03%)
5-Day Change: +$95.28 (+3.25%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,044.13
52-Week Range: $2,151.06 - $3,044.13
Weighted Alpha: +40.47

Gold set a new all-time high at $3,044.13 in overseas trading before adopting a consolidative intraday tone ahead of today's Fed decision. Safe-haven interest and a weak dollar remain broadly supportive.

 

Barring some dramatic shift in the Fed's bias, the outlook for gold will remain favorable with dips offering buying opportunities. A more hawkish tilt may present some short-term downside risk, particularly in light of the redeveloping overbought condition.

Today's London low at $3,025.84 marks initial support and protects the more important $3,003.04/$3,000.00 level. Below the latter, $2,982.85/80.54 stands in front of the old record high at $2.955.40.

On the upside, the next target is the measuring objective at $3,049.34. Beyond that, $3,100 and the $3,149,84 Fibonacci projection will attract.

Silver is trading lower after failing to sustain five-month highs above $34 on Tuesday. Ongoing global trade uncertainty is offsetting some of the optimism associated with German spending plans and Chinese stimulus.  



From a technical perspective, recent gains bode well for an eventual challenge of the more than 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct). Beyond that, the $35.348 high from October 2012 would be in play.

Monday's low at $33.495 has contained the downside thus far, but further retracement can't be ruled out. If this support gives way, previous resistance at $33.340 protects the $33.000/$32.961 level.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold sets new record highs as silver extends gains above $34

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has collapsed. More than 400 have reportedly been killed as the IDF struck Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad targets in the Gaza Strip.

The office of PM Netanyahu released a statement pledging that "Israel will act against Hamas with increasing military force" until its goals are achieved, "including the release of all our hostages — living and dead."

Hamas is believed to still hold 59 hostages in Gaza. Half are feared to have been killed.

Houthi rebels in Yemen reportedly fired a ballistic missile into southern Israel after pledging solidarity with Hamas. The U.S. has vowed to continue striking Houthi targets in Yemen to protect a key shipping channel.

The White House warned that it would hold Iran responsible for any future attacks. “Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN,” President Trump posted on Truth Social. 

President Trump is slated to speak with Russian President Putin today about ending the war in Ukraine. Trump is optimistic that Putin will agree to a 30-day ceasefire, allowing for continued negotiations to end the conflict. However, there's a growing sense that Russia is not interested in a deal.

The Fed's two-day FOMC meeting began today. Tomorrow's policy announcement is expected to confirm the Fed remains on hold. This will leave the market to focus on the forward guidance and the economic projections.

A month out from the next ECB meeting, Governing Council member Ollie Rehn is worried about "exceptional uncertainty." He stressed that the central bank is "not pre-committed to any particular rate path.” 

While the drive to boost defense and infrastructure spending in Europe would lift growth, Rehn worries that inflation will rise as well. It is important that the ECB keep its options open.

The lower house of the German Parliament has passed the proposal to adjust the statutory debt brake to allow for €500 bln in new spending. The upper house is expected to vote on the measure on Friday.

German ZEW Investor Confidence nearly doubled in March to a three-year high of 51.6 from 26.0 in February. Optimism that the German spending blitz will be approved is driving confidence.

Housing Starts surged 11.2% to 1.501M in February, well above expectations of 1.378M, versus 1.350M in January. Permits ebbed to 1.456M from 1.473M. Completions slipped to 1.592M from 1.659M.

Import Prices rose 0.4% in February, above expectations of -0.1%, versus a revised +0.4% in January. Export Prices increased 0.1% on expectations of -0.2%, versus +1.3% in January. Trade prices beats may be the early signs of tariff impact.

Industrial Production jumped 0.7% in February, above expectations of +0.2%, versus a negative revised +0.3% in January (was +0.5%). Capacity utilization rose to 78.2% on expectations of 77.8%, versus 77.7% in January.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$22.64 (+0.75%)
5-Day Change: +$115.48 (+3.96%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,036.71
52-Week Range: $2,149.45 - $3,036.71
Weighted Alpha: +40.65

Gold extended to a new round of record highs, driven by the breaking of the ceasefire in Gaza. Ongoing uncertainty on the trade front, signs of stock market strains, and a weak dollar continue to provide additional support.

 

The $3,029.67 Fibonacci objective has been satisfied and exceeded, bringing the $3,049.34 measuring objective within striking distance. Additional credence has been lent to the market's next key level at $3,500.

Citing central bank demand, Doubleline Capital's Jeff Gundlach sees potential to $4,000. “I think gold will make it to $4,000. I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move anticipated by the long consolidation at around $1,800 on gold,” Gundlach said.

An intraday low from early U.S. trading at $3,026.63 marks initial support and protects the more important $3,003.04/$3,000.00 level. Look for the trade to continue seeking buying opportunities on setbacks.

Silver is trading at new five-month highs buoyed by spillover haven buying as gold reaches new record highs. A weak dollar and today's industrial production beat are contributing to the white metal's bid.



Progress in Germany toward freeing up €500 bln in new infrastructure and defense spending is another positive for industrial metals, including silver. New measures by China to boost domestic consumption are also likely to improve demand for silver.

A minor chart point at $34.517 (30-Oct high) provides an intervening barrier ahead of the 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct). Beyond that, the $35.348 high from October 2012 would be in play.

Heraeus reports that the rising price of silver is adversely impacting coin demand. "In February, Perth Mint sales dropped 52% year-on-year to 482 koz, while the US Mint saw a 45% decline to 928 koz," according to the latest issue of the Precious Appraisal.

Heraeus also notes that silver ETFs have seen outflows of 8.5Moz YTD. I wrote in yesterday's comment that spec longs paired positions in the futures market last week. Stronger participation from investors may be needed to drive silver to new cycle highs.

Today's early New York low at $33.896 marks initial support and stands in front of the overseas low at $33.770. Additional supports are noted at $33.340 and $33.000/$32.961.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold remains firm near $3,000, helping to underpin silver

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The BoJ, BoE, SNB, Riksbank, Bank of Taiwan, Bank Indonesia, and the Fed will all announce policy. These policy decisions will be made under a cloud of rising uncertainty as global trade tensions stoke growth risks and worries about revived inflation.

The Fed is widely expected to remain on hold, so focus will be on changes to the economic projections. It seems likely that the 2025 growth projection from December of +2.1% will be nudged lower. Inflation expectations from December were +2.5% for both PCE and core PCE.

President Trump signed the six-month funding bill, averting a partial government shutdown. The bill made it to the President's desk after Congressional democrats chose not to mount a serious challenge to the GOP's agenda.

The OECD revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% in 2024. They trimmed the U.S. growth projection to 2.2% from 2.4%.

According to the OECD report, titled 'Steering through Uncertainty': "Inflationary pressures continue to linger in many economies. At the same time, policy uncertainty has been high and significant risks remain. Further fragmentation of the global economy is a key concern. Higher-than-expected inflation would prompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets."

China has announced ambitious plans to “vigorously boost consumption.” The program will promote wage growth along with measures to free up disposable income.

“By connecting consumer spending to broader social goals like elderly care improvement, childcare support and work-life balance, the plan embeds consumption growth within China’s wider development objectives," according to Xinhua, the official state news agency of the PRC.

The German Parliament is slated to vote on the €500 bln defense and infrastructure spending plan this week. However, a last-minute legal challenge from the far-right threatens to derail – or at least slow – the necessary changes to the 'debt brake.'

NAHB Housing Market Index fell three points to 39 in March from 42 in February. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. “Builders continue to face elevated building material costs that are exacerbated by tariff issues, as well as other supply-side challenges that include labor and lot shortages,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes.

Retail Sales rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of +0.6%, versus a revised -1.2% in January (was -0.9%).  Ex-auto rose 0.3% on expectations of +0.4%, versus -0.6% in January (was -0.4%)

Empire State manufacturing index plunged 25.7 points to -20.0 in March, well below market expectations of -2.0, versus 5.7 in February. "Input prices increased at the fastest pace in more than two years, and selling price increases also continued to pick up. Optimism about the outlook waned considerably for a second consecutive month."

Business Inventories rebounded 0.3% in January, in line with expectations, versus -0.2% in December. The inventory/sales ratio rose to 1.37 after falling to a 31-month low of 1.35 in December. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$11.97 (+0.04%)
5-Day Change: +$108.53 (+3.76%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,003.05
52-Week Range: $2,146.66 - $3,003.05
Weighted Alpha: +38.46

Gold remains well bid after setting fresh record highs above $3,000 on Friday. The yellow metal continues to be underpinned by haven flows and a soft dollar as markets look ahead to this week's Fed decision and economic projections.



Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of 32.7 tonnes last week, led by North American investors. It was the seventh straight weekly inflow and the second largest since the 27-Oct'23 week.

The COT report for last week showed net speculative long positions fell 7.2k to 236.1k contracts from 243.3k in the previous week. It was the fifth straight weekly decline in spec longs.

A breach of Friday's high at $3,003.05 would clear the way for a push to the next Fibonacci objective at $3,029.67. Beyond that, a measuring objective at $3,049.34 attracts.

Friday's low at $2,980.54 has been reinforced by today's London low at $2,982.85. Secondary supports are noted at $2,968.06/67.98 and $2,955.40.

Silver is trading modestly lower, but last week's five-month high above $34 keeps focus on the upside. The white metal continues to be underpinned by gold's strength, new Chinese stimulus, and hopes that the German Parliament will clear the way for massive defense and infrastructure spending.



Last week's COT report showed net speculative long positions jumped 6.2k to a 19-week high of 59.5k contracts, versus 53.3k in the previous week.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

Penetration of Friday's high at $34.041 would bode well for a challenge of the more than 22-year high set last year at $34.853 (22-Oct). A minor intervening resistance is noted at $34.517 (30-Oct high).

Today's early New York low at $33.495 marks initial support and stands in front of the previous high for the year at $33.340. Secondary supports at $32.961 and $32.728 protect the rising 20-day moving average at $32.531.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
pgrant@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.