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Gold and silver fall to nine-week lows amid persistent yield and dollar strength

Outside Market Developments: Markets are in a risk-off mode today with bond yields and the dollar back on the bid, oil prices higher amid renewed Middle East tensions, and caution ahead of today's release of the September FOMC minutes. Stocks (especially growth/tech names) are pulling back from recent record highs.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had nearly returned to pre-war levels in recent weeks, with crude exports reaching a seven-day average of about 13.5 million barrels per day – matching the pre-conflict baseline – and overall regional Middle East crude flows even exceeding pre-war averages on multiple days in late September. However, a recent surge in Iranian attacks on vessels in and around the strait has heightened shipping risks and insurance costs, preventing a full normalization of supply security and helping keep global oil prices elevated above $100 per barrel.

Today’s FOMC minutes from the September meeting are likely to reveal a broader internal debate, despite the unanimous 25 bps suggested, highlighting divergent views among officials on the need for further tightening versus a more patient approach. They are expected to underscore persistent inflation risks that supported the median projection for one additional hike in 2026, while also reflecting discussions of solid economic growth and balanced labor-market risks at the time. Evidence of some degree of reluctance among the dovish-tilted members could spark a rally in Fed funds futures.

Global bond yields have climbed sharply in recent sessions, with the U.S. 10-year note yield rising to around 5.33-5.35% and the 30-year bond yield hitting approximately 5.70-5.73%, both marking their highest levels since 2002. The sell-off has been broad-based, with U.K. 30-year gilt yields surging to a 28-year high near 6.03% and European yields, particularly in France and Italy, also advancing amid persistent inflation concerns and elevated oil prices. For heavily indebted countries, the sharp rise in global yields translates into soaring debt-servicing costs that threaten to strain already fragile budgets and amplify fiscal stress.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$47.03 (-1.13%)
5-Day Change: -$32.96 (-0.79%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -3.20

Gold slid to nine-week lows, weighed by expectations that the Fed will tighten at least one more time this year, which is underpinning yields and the dollar. The bear camp seemed disinclined to press the technical advantage ahead of this afternoon's release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

 

Minor chart support at $4,065.84 (5-Aug low) has contained the downside thus far, but tests of secondary supports at $4,043.54 (4-Aug low) and $4,022.62 (3-Aug low) must now be considered. As noted earlier in the week, I still believe the low for the year is in at $3,945.52 (30-Jun), but my confidence in that scenario has eroded somewhat with today's downside extension.

Former lows at $4,124.23/$4,125.55 now mark first resistance. Above that, today's overseas high at $4,169.88 protects the high for the week at $4,183.65. A breach of the latter would clear the way for renewed tests above $4,200, where the highs from late last week and the declining 20- and 100-day moving averages come into play.

Not surprisingly, the World Gold Council's Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) confirmed that "a rise in yields and a stronger US dollar were major contributors to September’s drop in [gold] prices." The WGC went on to note that while COMEX positioning contracted sharply, global gold ETFs "recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia."



I found this paragraph from the WGC report interesting as I've had some difficulty justifying how the current market conditions warrant multi-decade high yields in government bonds, unless concerns about massive and growing debt loads are quietly (for now) ramping:

"Rising government bond yields have generated intense debate this year. Explanations range from stronger growth and a return to historical norms, to fiscal risk and a weakening safe-haven premium. Europe’s surge in gold ETF inflows, led by the UK and exceeding US inflows over the past three months, suggests some investors may see the rise in yields as a warning rather than a healthy normalisation." 

China’s central bank continued gold purchases for a 23rd consecutive month in September, providing some structural demand. Longer-term forecasts from the LBMA conference in Sorrento, Italy still point to potential upside toward $5,000 over the next 12 months, while near-term sentiment is cautious with a downside bias until there's some clarity on the Fed's policy intentions. I'm not expecting to get that from the FOMC minutes today.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.292 (-2.11%)
5-Day Change: -$0.139 (-0.23%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +5.50

Silver fell to a nine-week low of $59 in early U.S. trading, amid persistently high yields and renewed dollar strength. The trade is eagerly anticipating the September FOMC minutes, although I'm doubtful any new insights will be revealed.



Additional losses with potential to the $58.272 Fibonacci level must now be considered. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

A close back above $60 today would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages must be regained to allow for a retest of recent highs at $62.021/079. Further out, the $70 level is the key to unlocking more significant retracement of this year's losses toward $80.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver continue to face headwinds from dollar strength and elevated yields

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The market has significantly reduced expectations of another rate hike in October, following last week's disappointing jobs report for September. Additionally, the Fed's favored measure of inflation for August came in cooler than expected.

Fed funds futures suggest the probability of steady policy at the next FOMC meeting now stands at 78.4%, that's up from 29.1% a week ago. While diminished, the market still sees a strong probability (84.8%) of at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end.

U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated today, with the 10-year note hovering near 5.25-5.28%, close to multi-year highs amid ongoing fiscal and inflation concerns. The dollar index hit fresh 18-month highs in overseas trading before moderating somewhat. The greenback is supported by relative U.S. economic strength, the still-hawkish Fed tilt, and generally attractive interest rate differentials.



Iranian Foreign Minister stressed on Sunday that there is “no military solution” and only fair negotiations can end the war, while warning of a stronger response to any renewed confrontation. Meanwhile, Washington is maintaining its focus on economic pressure and a blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled diplomacy.

Brent crude is modestly easier to start the week but is still above the pivotal $100 level amid the diplomatic stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. However, gains have been capped by potential coordinated releases of emergency crude reserves by G7 nations.

ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, signaling continued expansion in the service sector but at a slightly slower pace than expected. While key sub-components like business activity and new orders remained resilient, rising input cost measures indicated persistent inflationary pressures.

The market is also looking forward to the release of the September FOMC minutes for clues on the path of interest rates after soft jobs data reduced October hike odds. Attention will also turn to the early stages of earnings season, ongoing movements in elevated Treasury yields and oil prices, and other data such as jobless claims and consumer sentiment.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$45.80 (+1.11%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,884.61 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -2.00

Gold has been unable to sustain intraday gains and remains generally defensive in the wake of Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report. While another rate hike in October is looking less likely, the probability for further tightening before year-end remains elevated, keeping yields and the dollar underpinned.



A breach of last week's low at $4,111.49 would put the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level to the test. If the latter gives way, scope would be for a downside extension to the August low at $4,022.62. Minor intervening barriers are noted at $4,065.84 and $4,043.54. While I still believe the summer low at $3,945.52 will remain intact, amid structural underpinning, confidence in that scenario will erode with each successive breach of support.

On the upside, Friday's high at $4,225.02 must be cleared to return focus to the late-September congestion band around $4,300, where important moving averages have converged. A close above the still-climbing 50-day MA at $4,327.72 is needed to confirm a more favorable short-term tone.

Metals Focus forecasts that despite near-term headwinds from high U.S. inflation and rising interest rates, gold will reach new record highs in 2027 with an annual average price of $5,330. They believe strong investment demand, U.S. debt concerns, persistent geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank buying will remain the key drivers supporting gold.

According to Nikkei Asia, Asian gold-producing countries are taking steps to keep more of their domestic gold supply within their borders following recent price surges. Driven by a mix of "resource nationalism," waning confidence in the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, and fears of international sanctions, governments are moving to increase domestic refining, restrict exports through taxes, and build up their central banks' official reserves.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.447 (+2.40%)
5-Day Change: +$0.914 (+1.51%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +8.64

Silver is maintaining intraday gains, but remains within Friday's range. The white metal is displaying comparative strength versus gold amid AI optimism and risk-on sentiment, which has pushed the Nasdaq to new record highs.



A rebound above the 20-, 50-, 100-day moving average complex is needed to take pressure off the downside and shift focus to the late-September highs at $67.513/529 and the more important 9-Sep high at $68.314. The latter is the key to unlock the $70 zone.

Metals Focus (MF) projects silver to strengthen over the next 12 to 18 months by tracking gold higher before eventually outperforming it as renewed price momentum attracts investor interest. They anticipate this growth will be driven primarily by investment demand rather than physical tightness, as weakening demand in physical markets, jewelry, and industrial fabrication caps immediate support.

Friday's low at $59.708 stands in front of the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

PGMs

The outlook for platinum remains constructive despite significant volatility this year, which saw prices hit a record high near $2,900 before pulling back. Supply is heavily concentrated in South Africa (with notable contributions from Russia and elsewhere) and has faced persistent constraints from operational challenges, while demand has generally outpaced production in recent years. This has led to multi-year market deficits that have significantly depleted above-ground stocks.

Platinum is currently trading just above $1,700. Looking ahead, even with forecasts of a modest surplus or near-balance in 2026 (partly tied to investment flows), inventories remain critically low (around a few months of demand cover), supporting a constructive longer-term outlook driven by structural supply tightness and resilient industrial/jewelry demand. Metals Focus projects platinum will average $1,930 in 2026 (up 51% year-over-year) and rise further to an annual average of $2,060 in 2027.

The palladium market has shifted from prolonged deficits toward balance or surplus conditions amid rising recycling, production adjustments, and pressure on automotive demand from the gradual shift toward electric vehicles. Prices are currently around $1,170-1,200. The near-to-medium-term outlook is more subdued than platinum’s, with potential for continued softness or range-bound trading as vehicle electrification and thrifting weigh on consumption, though supply disruptions or slower EV uptake could provide some support.

Metals Focus tilts more bullish, expecting strong performance in 2026 – averaging $1,440 – driven by strategic demand, risks surrounding Russian anti-dumping investigations, and potential U.S. mine supply disruptions. However, they anticipate the market will soften and move toward balance in 2027, with annual average prices dropping 7% year-over-year to $1,330.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fail to sustain initial gains triggered by the NFP miss

Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 29k in September, well below the consensus estimate of +90k. Backmonth revisions totaled -60k. 

Healthcare and social assistance added roughly 43k jobs, meaning that without this single, publicly funded sector, total private-sector payrolls actually contracted. This underscores how narrowly based and vulnerable the broader labor market may be.

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on expectations of +0.3%; +3.0% y/y, versus expectations of +3.1%.

Today’s much weaker-than-expected jobs report dampens the labor market optimism that emerged just a month ago, and tamps down recent hawkish Fed leanings. Fed funds futures reflect further erosion of October rate hike expectations, now at 20.5%, versus 24.4% yesterday and 64.2% a month ago. Implied tightening for the remainder of the year stands at 20 bps.

Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar have pulled back from recent multi-decade and 18-month highs, respectively. Longer term, their direction will hinge on whether subsequent data confirm a sustained cooling in the labor market and inflation, or if resilience reemerges and forces policymakers to continue tightening.



Brent crude eased somewhat, weighed by the weak jobs report, signs of recovering Middle Eastern crude exports and reports that European nations may release strategic fuel reserves to ease supply pressures. However, Brent remains above $100 amid persistent Middle East tensions.

Russian President Putin warned that Moscow would deploy all weapons in its arsenal, including nuclear ones, if the exclave of Kaliningrad or other Russian territory faced a direct attack. Speaking at the Valdai Forum, he framed the remarks as a response to alleged NATO plans to isolate the Baltic region while insisting Russia has no intention of attacking Europe.

Kaliningrad is the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet. The strategically critical ice-free port is separated from mainland Russia and provides Moscow a forward base to project power into northern and central Europe.

Markets are generally tilted toward risk-on on the reduced odds of a near-term Fed rate hike. The dovish surprise from today's NFP lifted equities, with the Nasdaq reaching record highs, as investors anticipate easier financial conditions ahead.

There's a relatively light data calendar next week centered on the U.S. services sector, FedSpeak, and consumer sentiment, alongside ongoing geopolitical and bond-market developments. Chinese markets remain closed for Golden Week, limiting trading activity and reducing liquidity in the early part of the week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$5.42 (+0.13%)
5-Day Change: -$106.98 (-2.50%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,838.64 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +0.81

Gold initially rallied on the NFP miss, but gains above $4,200 could not be sustained. Although yields eased today, they remain near levels last seen in 2002, while the dollar index is on track for a third consecutive solid weekly gain. As a result, gold is set to post a second straight weekly decline.



Resistance has been clarified by today's high at $4,225.02, which provides an important intervening barrier ahead of the high for this week at $4,284.54. The latter corresponds closely with the falling 100- and 20-day moving averages. The rising 50-day MA at $4,326.61 must be regained to ease pressure on the downside and suggest potential back to the August high at $4,696.31.

However, at this point, yield and dollar strength remain a significant headwind. A short-term breach of the lows for this week at $4,114.53/$4,111.49 and the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level would shift focus to congestive chart support around $4065/$4,0555.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.067 (+0.11%)
5-Day Change: -$3.391 (-5.27%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +10.23

Silver popped briefly above $62 in the wake of today's jobs report as October rate hike odds eroded and yields and the dollar eased. However, the gains in the white metal could not be sustained, and the market subsequently fell to eight-week lows. Silver is poised for a second straight lower weekly close.



As noted earlier in the week, the drop below $60 leaves the $58.272 Fibonacci level vulnerable to a test. Below that, the 4-Aug low at $58.01 would be in play. Last month's low at $56.583 provides a decent intervening barrier ahead of July's cycle low at $54.778.

Today's intraday high at $62.079 now provides important resistance. If silver can muster a rebound to take out this level, a challenge of Monday's high at $64.289 would become likely. This area is bolstered by the convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages.

A climb back above the 100-day MA is needed to ease pressure on the downside and rehighlight the late-September highs at $67.513/529. Above that, the 9-Sep high at $68.314 provides a formidable barrier ahead of the August high at $71.104 and the 200-day MA at $72.961.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fail to sustain intraday gains, despite tamer inflation readings

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 0.3% in August, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +0.1% in July; 3.4% y/y, unchanged from July and below consensus of 3.7%. Annualized core inflation was steady at 3.0% on expectations of 3.4%. The softer-than-expected inflation readings were aided in part by the BEA’s annual methodological revisions.

Personal consumption expenditures rose a robust 0.9% ($190.8 billion), driven by gains in both goods and services spending, while real (inflation-adjusted) PCE increased 0.6% – the strongest monthly advance in about a year. Personal income grew 0.2% and disposable personal income rose 0.3%, leaving the personal saving rate at 4.1%.

The final revision to Q2 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at a revised 2.2% annualized rate, up sharply from the prior 1.5% reading and above expectations of 1.5%. Stronger consumer spending, business investment, and exports drove growth. Q1 growth was also revised up to 2.5% from 2.1%, painting a more robust picture of economic activity in the first half of the year.

Private-sector employers added 90k jobs in September according to the ADP National Employment Report, above expectations of 70k and a sharp rebound from the downward-revised +36k in August. Strength was concentrated in education/health services and leisure/hospitality. The stronger-than-expected reading points to resilient private hiring and raises the odds that Friday’s BLS nonfarm payrolls report will meet or beat the consensus estimate of 82k.

Evidence of resilient growth alongside cooler inflation takes near-term pressure off the Fed, supporting a more patient policy stance even as inflation remains above the 2% target. Fed funds futures are now suggesting the probability of an October Fed rate hike is down to 37.1% from 50.9% yesterday and 70.9% a week ago. However, the likelihood of at least 25 bps of tightening by year-end, while lower, remains quite high at 88.2%.

Brent crude is trading more than 3% higher today as lingering geopolitical risk from the ongoing conflict with Iran and stalled efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz outweigh recent signs of a recovery in Middle East oil exports. Uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations – particularly after President Trump rejected reports of offering sanctions relief – has supported prices, keeping a war-risk premium in the market despite Saudi Arabia’s partial restart of its East-West pipeline and higher regional shipment volumes.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: -$79.42 (-1.85%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,820.24 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +1.79

Gold briefly probed above $4,200 in early U.S. trading, lifted by the softer-than-expected PCE inflation data that tempered market bets on another Fed rate hike in October. However, the intraday gains could not be sustained amid still-elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar. Focus now shifts to Friday's jobs report.



The earlier high at $4,218.99 now provides an additional barrier, along with $4,235.99, ahead of the important 100-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages. Those MA's really need to be regained to ease short-term pressure on the downside and provide some encouragement to the bull camp.

Support is well defined by the $4,111.49/$4,106.19 chart/Fibonacci area. If this zone is violated, a challenge of the August low at $4,022.62 would have to be considered, with potential for tests below $4,000. That being said, I still think the June low at $3,945.52 is likely to contain the downside.

One under-appreciated dynamic in today’s gold market is the divergence between Western investment flows and official-sector demand. While gold is down roughly 25% from its January peak amid elevated real yields and a firm dollar – prompting caution among ETF and speculative investors – central banks have kept buying aggressively.

China alone has reported purchases for 22 consecutive months (with actual buying likely higher than official figures), and global central-bank demand remains well above pre-2022 averages. This sovereign accumulation, driven more by reserve diversification and geopolitical risk management than by short-term rate expectations, is quietly providing a structural floor for the market.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.674 (-1.10%)
5-Day Change: -$3.314 (-5.14%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +10.77

Silver has fallen to fresh eight-week lows, despite more moderate inflation readings this morning, as the broader macro backdrop (high yields, strong dollar) continues to dominate. Higher borrowing costs can slow manufacturing, capital spending, and investment in silver-intensive sectors such as solar, electronics, and EVs, thereby weighing on industrial demand for the metal.



With silver setting new lows and below key moving averages, tests below $60 are increasingly likely. Such a move would encourage a challenge of the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the 4-Aug low at $58.01 would be in play. Last month's low at $56.583 provides a decent intervening barrier ahead of July's cycle low at $54.778.

Today's earlier high at $61.703 now protects the previous range lows at $62.331/346. A move back into the range that held for most of September would bode well for a challenge of the key moving averages (50, 20, 100), which are converging above $64.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble on hawkish Fed expectations, firm yields and dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict. While there have been indications that talks would continue this week, oil starts the week on the bid.

The rebound in oil is keeping inflation concerns and expectations for further Fed tightening elevated. Last week's hawkish FedSpeak is certainly contributing to those expectations and rising yields. More Fed speakers are on tap for this week, and the tone will likely be similarly hawkish.

Fed funds futures put the probability of an October rate hike at 65.9%, versus 64.2% on Friday, 57.6% a week ago, and 17.7% a month ago. The probability of at least one 25 bps rate hike before year-end remains above 90%.

The Fed's favored measure of inflation comes out on Wednesday. Headline PCE inflation for August is expected to hold steady at 3.7%. Core inflation is expected to edge up to 3.4%, from 3.3% in July.

The trade will also be focused on the September jobs report on Friday. The consensus estimate is +84k nonfarm payrolls. The jobless rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Five men were arrested early Sunday near RAF Fairford in England on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack with explosives after suspicious vans were reported approaching the base, which the U.S. has used for strikes on Iran. A local tip-off led to the arrests; investigators are probing a possible Iranian link.

Iran’s embassy in the UK has categorically rejected and strongly condemned any claims of its involvement as unfounded and malicious speculation. However, counter-terrorism police are pursuing “multiple new lines of enquiry.” Security has been raised to the highest level at RAF Fairford, and elevated at other sites as well. The UK’s national threat level remains SEVERE.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$130.24 (-3.04%)
5-Day Change: -$177.96 (-4.10%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,760.05 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +0.37

Gold has tumbled to seven-week lows amid expectations of another Fed rate hike, which are buoying yields and the dollar. The lack of diplomatic progress last week toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil to rebound, raising inflation concerns.



Today's breach of chart/Fibonacci support at $4,235.99/$4,232.32 triggered stop losses, clearing the way for a challenge of the next Fibonacci level at $4,106.19 (78.6% retrace of the late-summer rally). Below the latter, congestive chart support around $4065/$4,0555 would be the likely attraction.

With the yellow metal well below the important moving averages, the downside is indeed looking vulnerable. However, haven interest from elevated geopolitical tensions and the very inflation worries that are driving yields and the dollar higher should provide some underpinning ahead of the June low at $3,945.52.

India’s weak monsoon season could reduce gold demand during the festival/wedding season. Current monsoon rainfall is around 15% below average, highlighting negative implications for crop yields and farm incomes."Rural consumers account for over half of Indian gold demand, reflecting gold’s long-standing role as a store of wealth in areas where access to financial products has historically been more limited," according to the Heraeus Precious Appraisal.

Global ETFs saw net outflows of 1.6 tonnes, ending the string of consecutive weekly inflows at eleven. It was the first net outflow since the week ended 3-Jul.

A short-term climb back above the key moving averages is needed to take pressure off the downside and reinforce the notion that the low for the year was established in June. Intervening resistances are found at $4,235.99 and today's overseas high at $4,284.54.

Sustained central bank buying (especially from emerging markets seeking reserve diversification) and elevated global debt levels, which raise questions about fiat currency stability, are long-term supportive factors. Persistent geopolitical risks and gold’s role as an inflation and crisis hedge further underpin its structural demand beyond short-term rate and dollar pressures.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.863 (-2.78%)
5-Day Change: -$4.456 (-6.75%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +11.89

Silver is extending last week’s losses to plumb seven-week lows, pressured by hawkish Fed expectations along with the resulting strength in yields and the dollar. The white metal has fallen more than 4% to begin the new week.



With the $61.015 Fibonacci level negated, tests below $60 must be considered. The next tier of Fibonacci support comes in at $58.272. Below that, challenges of the August low at $56.583 and the cycle low from July at $54.778 would have to be considered.

The rising 50-day moving average at $63.866 must be regained to set up further consolidation within the recent range. Secondary resistance is marked by today's overseas high at $64.289 and stands in front of the falling 20- and 100-day moving averages.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver poised for lower weekly close amid yield and dollar strength

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: At the UN General Assembly in New York this week, world leaders addressed global challenges under the theme of restoring trust and delivering for all, with major focus on ongoing conflicts. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traded sharp rhetoric – Trump warning of potential “annihilation” of Iran without a deal, while Pezeshkian vowed defiance against bullying and openness to diplomacy without force.

On the sidelines, U.S. envoys and Iranian officials held mediated talks to try and find a path to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While no breakthrough was reached, both sides have signaled willingness to keep channels open for ongoing negotiations.

Brent crude traded in a volatile pattern this week, initially dipping below $99 a barrel on hopes of diplomatic progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before rebounding back toward the $103–$105 range amid lingering Middle East supply disruptions and ongoing regional risks. Nonetheless, Brent appears on track for a second straight lower weekly close.

President Trump hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a high-profile White House summit on Thursday that featured an elaborate ceremony and warm personal rhetoric but delivered limited concrete results beyond a short two-month extension of their existing trade truce to January 10. The leaders discussed AI, Taiwan (where Xi urged the US to oppose independence), trade imbalances, and other strategic issues including the Middle East, yet major disagreements persisted with no breakthroughs on core tensions.

This week’s Fed speakers largely struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing that persistent inflation – driven by strong demand, ongoing supply shocks from energy prices and geopolitics, and limited recent progress – likely requires further rate hikes beyond last week’s 25 bps increase. The overall message reinforced that policy remains insufficiently restrictive and that additional tightening may be needed, potentially involving economic trade-offs, to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target.

This week’s US economic data pointed to ongoing resilience amid a light calendar. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 (near multi-decade lows), new home sales rose 6.4% in August to a 684,000 annualized rate, and flash PMIs showed business activity accelerating to multi-year highs, while durable goods orders for August came in roughly flat and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading reflected continued caution. Overall, the figures reinforced a solid labor market and steady demand even as inflation pressures and higher rates remained in focus.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent held a conference call today with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. The two reaffirmed that the yen’s undervaluation remains a shared concern and exchanged views on financial market developments. They also confirmed their intention to strengthen bilateral cooperation, underscoring ongoing coordination to support a stronger yen. USD-JPY is off more than 1% today, putting the dollar index under modest pressure.

Markets next week will focus on a busy slate of U.S. economic data that could shape Fed rate expectations, including August PCE inflation (headline consensus 3.8% y/y), final Q2 GDP, ADP employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Friday’s September jobs report (NFP consensus +100k). Attention will also stay on Middle East developments, oil prices, and any US-Iran progress.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$36.89 (+0.86%)
5-Day Change: -$77.35 (-1.77%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,734.87 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +7.41

Gold is modestly higher, but appears poised for a lower weekly close. Haven interest has been overwhelmed by hawkish FedSpeak that lifted yields and the dollar, weighing on the yellow metal.



Price action this week has been confined to last week's range, and key moving averages are converging. Important U.S. data releases next week could trigger a breakout. Given successive closes below the 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages this week, last week's low at $4,235.99 and an important Fibonacci level at $4,232.32 look vulnerable.

A short-term breach of $4,235.99/32.32 would suggest potential for tests below $4,200. The next tier of Fibonacci support is found at $4,106.19.

Nonetheless, gold refuses to collapse, propped up by steady central-bank buying, persistent geopolitical tensions (including multiple wars), and a general distrust of fiat currencies. Additionally, much of the world is running elevated public debt and stubborn deficits amid rising interest costs, leaving increasingly limited room for fiscal maneuvering. There will be hard choices ahead.

The ancient store of value sits largely in the background, its resilience treated as background noise rather than the quiet signal of global unease. That has gold up nearly 9% from the summer low and 14% YoY.

I continue to watch the 50- and 100-day moving averages, which now provide resistance, and are bolstered by today's early U.S. high at $4,315.59. A close above those MAs would shift focus to the 20-day MA at 4350.87 and last week's high at $4,399.30. Above the latter, the 200-day MA at $4,544.11 would be in play.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.164 (+1.82%)
5-Day Change: -$1.477 (-2.23%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $44.611 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +23.67

Silver is on track for a lower weekly close, as rising Fed hawkishness boosted yields and the dollar. However, the rising 50-day moving average continues to attract buying interest.



Like gold, the white metal is getting squeezed by converging moving averages. A short-term close below the 50-day MA would be a bearish signal, while a close above the 100-day is needed to embolden the bull camp.

On the downside, Thursday's low for the week at $63.087 protects the previous week's low at $62.331. Below that, if Fibonacci support at $61.015 gives way, tests back below $60 would have to be considered.

A short-term close above the 100-day MA at $65.888 is needed to return focus to recent highs at $67.328/529. The 9-Sep high at $68.329 must be cleared to call for tests above $70, but $80 must really be regained to return a measure of confidence to the long-term uptrend.

According to Goldman Sachs, global silver markets face a severe supply crunch with roughly five years of accessible reserves remaining at current depletion rates. This deficit is driven by surging industrial demand from the solar, electronics, and AI sectors that far outpaces growth in mining supply. The market will record a sixth consecutive year of structural supply deficit in 2026.
  
Goldman Sachs leads Wall Street's bullish outlook for silver, projecting a full-year average price target of $85 to $100 for this year, driven by macro-policy hedging and green infrastructure tailwinds. In comparison, Citi has a near-term target of $90 to $110 over a 6-to-12-month window, highlighting accelerating investment demand. J.P. Morgan has an opposing view, forecasting a drop to $63 in Q4 as short-term physical market tightness eases.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retreat as increasingly hawkish Fed expectations drive the dollar higher

Outside Market Developments: The UN General Debate began under the theme of restoring trust and making the UN more effective. UN Secretary-General António Guterres gave his final address, urging regulation of AI, an end to ongoing wars, stronger climate action (“polluters must pay”), a two-state solution for Israel-Palestine, and reforms to UN institutions.

President Trump’s speech focused heavily on the nearly seven-month U.S.-Iran conflict: he called for the complete economic isolation of Iran, framed a stark choice between a deal that would let Iran “rebuild” or “annihilating” the Islamic Republic, and predicted a possible settlement after the U.S. midterms.

U.S. and Iranian officials held indirect talks on the sidelines, which Trump described as “very good” and productive. Iran reiterated conditions, including lifting the U.S. naval blockade, releasing frozen assets, and ending hostilities; it signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz relatively quickly if its demands are met.

Further talks are likely, and the prospect of de-escalation weighed on oil. Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time in two weeks, but is firmer today.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed a trilateral security agreement at the UN in New York. The deal expands the U.S. military footprint on Greenland – including two new bases – while affirming Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s right to self-determination, effectively ending the earlier standoff over potential U.S. annexation.

President Trump personally welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews today as Xi began a three-day state visit to Washington – his first in 11 years – setting the stage for high-stakes talks. The leaders are expected to discuss trade, rare earths, AI cooperation, and geopolitical flashpoints including Iran and Taiwan, with formal summit meetings scheduled for Thursday.

This week’s Fed speakers have struck a consistently hawkish tone following last week’s rate hike. Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee warned that persistent supply shocks (from energy and tariffs) may require a “painful” response. Meanwhile, Boston Fed’s Susan Collins and Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin both backed further tightening if inflation risks remain elevated, helping push market expectations for at least one more rate hike by year-end to 91.7%.

Amid the hawkish FedSpeak, U.S. yields remain elevated (10-year near 5%), driving the dollar higher. The dollar index has reached eight-week highs above 101.



U.S. rate hikes widen the already large interest-rate gap with Japan, putting fresh downward pressure on the yen and making Tokyo’s interventions (that the U.S. participated in last month) less effective. Every hawkish Fed signal risks undoing the temporary support Japan and the U.S. bought through costly currency market operations.

U.S. stocks are mixed to modestly lower after the Nasdaq’s recent record highs, with the rate outlook and dollar strength providing a headwind. Oil price volatility and uncertainty around the start of the Trump-Xi summit are also keeping investors cautious.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$42.68 (-0.98%)
5-Day Change: +$48.57 (+1.14%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,717.65 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +7.82

Gold has fallen to fresh lows for the week as hawkish FedSpeak drives expectations for at least one more rate hike this year, lifting the dollar to two-month highs. While the yellow metal remains confined to last week's range, the $4,235.99 low is looking vulnerable.



The convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages at $4,312.84/$4,306.40 is important support today, particularly on a close basis. A close below this key zone would suggest potential to the $4,232.32 retracement level.

Persistent central bank buying should keep the summer lows below $4,000 at bay. China has been particularly relentless with the PBoC on a buying spree of 22 consecutive months.

China has already imported more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in the first eight months of 2026, surpassing its entire 2025 total. This structural, rate-insensitive demand from both private investors and the central bank is helping put a higher long-term floor under prices even as the Fed tightens and the dollar strengthens.

Recent tests of the upside stalled ahead of the declining 20-day MA, leaving several tiers of chart resistance ahead of the indicator at $4,376.33. It would take a short-term close above the 20-day to provide some encouragement to the bull camp, and call for a retest of last week's high at $4,399.30. Above the latter, the midpoint of the Aug/Sep range at 4466.15 would be in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.863 (-2.78%)
5-Day Change: +$2.145 (+3.41%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $43.679 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +24.62

Silver is off more than 3% intraday, weighed by heightened rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar. For now, the white metal continues to coil in the upper half of the Jul/Aug range.



Silver has been unable to sustain recent probes above the converging 100-day and 20-day moving averages at $65.549 and $66.196, respectively. This leaves the rising 50-day MA at $63.434 vulnerable to a challenge. Penetration would set up a retest of last week's low at $62.331, although a close below the 50-day would embolden the bears and signal potential to the $61.015 Fibonacci level.

A rebound above the 100-day is needed to ease pressure on the downside somewhat and return focus to the highs from the previous two sessions at $67.513/529. The high from 9-Sep at $68.314 still needs to be negated to clear the way for further tests above $70.

Despite the consolidative tone that has emerged, the longer-term supply/demand dynamics remain broadly supportive.  The highlights are a persistent structural supply deficit – now in its sixth year – combined with robust industrial demand tied to electrification, solar power, and AI infrastructure.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver easier amid firm yields and dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are primarily focused on geopolitics and policy signals this week. The U.S. economic calendar is relatively light.

After last week’s 25 bps Fed rate hike (the first since July 2023) and hawkish tone, we'll hear from multiple Fed officials this week, including Goolsbee, Williams, Jefferson, Barkin, Barr, and Hammack. Markets will parse those comments for clues on further tightening. Yields and the dollar will react accordingly.

The probability of further tightening this year has moderated somewhat, helped by further losses in oil to start the week. An October rate hike is near a 50/50 proposition, while the odds of at least one more before year-end remain elevated around 89%.

Yields have pulled back modestly (10-year around or below 5%, down a few basis points) as lower oil reduces inflation fears. Stocks are trading higher, led by tech/AI names. The dollar index remains well bid after setting a seven-week high last week amid persistent yen weakness.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 bps on Friday to 1.25% – the highest level in about 31 years – in a 7-2 vote aimed at preventing underlying inflation from overshooting its 2% target amid rising energy costs. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the central bank has entered a new phase of preemptive policy adjustment and did not rule out further or larger hikes depending on economic and price developments. Based on USD-JPY price action, the trade judged the decision and tone to be insufficiently hawkish.

The UN General Assembly meets this week with a theme of “Restoring trust, managing transformation: A United Nations that delivers for all.” World leaders are set to address global challenges including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, climate action, AI governance, and sustainable development. High-profile speeches are expected from figures such as President Donald Trump, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and others, alongside side meetings that could influence diplomacy amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is skipping the UNGA to focus on a high-profile summit with President Trump in Washington. This will be Xi’s first official state visit in over a decade. The talks are expected to focus on extending a fragile trade truce, tariffs, critical minerals and rare earths, artificial intelligence cooperation and safeguards, with Taiwan and the ongoing Middle East conflict also likely to be covered.

The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland reached a new security agreement that expands permanent U.S. military access, basing, and overflight rights in Greenland while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenland’s right to self-determination. Expected to be formally signed during this week’s UN General Assembly, the deal also prohibits non-NATO countries from establishing bases or making sensitive investments on the island, addressing U.S. strategic concerns in the Arctic without any transfer of territory.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$35.40 (-0.81%)
5-Day Change: +$54.15 (+1.26%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,684.09 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +9.22

Gold begins the week slightly defensive with generally firmer yields and the dollar posing headwinds. The yellow metal managed to eke out a higher weekly close last week, despite rate hikes by both the Fed and the BoJ.



The bull camp should be encouraged by gold holding above the 100-day moving average. The declining 20-day MA at $4,406.39 closely corresponds to Friday's high at $4,399.30, defining important short-term resistance. Penetration would clear the way for a challenge of the midpoint of the recent range at $4,566.15 with potential to the rising 200-day MA at $4,544.67. Above the latter, the August high at $4,696.31 would be in play.

Despite softer prices last week, global ETFs saw solid net inflows of 27.1 tonnes. It was the eleventh straight weekly inflow. North American investors led the charge amid mounting macro uncertainty and fiscal risks. This persistent demand highlights a structural shift toward safe-haven portfolio protection and currency hedging over short-term price momentum.

Today's early U.S. low at $4,323.27 bolsters the declining 100-day MA at $$4,318.77. The rising 50-day MA at $4,295.66 attracted buying interest last week. A close below the 50-day or a breach of last week's low at $4,235.99 would leave gold vulnerable to further bearish retracement toward $4,200.

Gold’s longer-term fundamentals remain strongly supportive, underpinned by persistent central bank buying for reserve diversification, elevated geopolitical risks, and concerns over fiscal sustainability and currency debasement that reinforce its role as a monetary hedge. These structural drivers are complemented by seasonal bullishness that can extend into February, driven by Indian wedding/Diwali demand, Western holiday jewelry buying, and Chinese New Year preparations.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.352 (-0.53%)
5-Day Change: +$3.455 (+5.46%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $43.035 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +28.79

Silver notched a higher weekly close last week, despite reaching a six-week low at $62.331 last Monday. The white metal starts this week lower, but in a generally neutral position.



Probes above the declining 100-day moving average have been unsustainable thus far, leaving the downside vulnerable to further tests. The falling 20-day MA has provided support so far today, keeping Friday's low at $65.227 at bay.

A close above the 100-day MA would put last week's high at $67.328 to the test. Above that, more formidable resistance at $68.314 (9-Sep high) is the key to unlock further tests above $70. Key resistance is well defined by the August high at $71.104.

Major global physical silver ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately 0.5 million troy ounces (around $29M) for the week ending 18-Sep. This mild position squaring was led primarily by redemptions in SLV as investors exercised caution amid firm Treasury yields and expectations of higher interest rates.

The longer-term bullish thesis for silver rests on a persistent structural supply deficit combined with indispensable non-discretionary industrial demand. Global demand is set to outstrip mine supply for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, widening the deficit to an estimated 46.3 Moz and drawing above-ground vault inventories down by over 760 Moz since 2021.

With roughly 70% of silver mined as a byproduct of other metals (like copper, lead, and zinc), mine output cannot easily expand to meet rising prices. Meanwhile, demand remains supported by silver's electrical conductivity in green energy infrastructure, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI hardware.

PGMs

Platinum is trading in a consolidative range near $1,800, showing modest upward bias at times amid broader precious-metals support from geopolitical tensions and tight physical supply, though gains have been capped by higher U.S. yields and a firmer dollar following last week's Fed rate hike.

Palladium has recovered above $1,300 after setting a six-week low of $1,254.83 last week. Recent softer performance is tied to industrial demand concerns – particularly from the automotive sector – and elevated interest rates have outweighed any safe-haven or supply-side support, resulting in more subdued price action compared with platinum and gold.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound to new highs for the week ahead of Fed decision

Outside Market Developments: Markets are in a cautious holding pattern ahead of the Fed decision around 1:00 PM CT. The market is pretty much convinced (92.7% probability) that a 25 bps rate hike to the 3.75% – 4.00% target range is in the offing. If it happens, it would be the first tightening since July 2023.

Fed Chairman Warsh has previously warned against a “hall of mirrors” dynamic in which the Fed simply ratifies market pricing. A hold is still possible, but it would be quite a surprise at this point and stoke volatility.

Recent U.S. inflation readings show headline CPI holding steady at 3.4% year-over-year in August (up 0.4% monthly, partly on energy), while core CPI eased to 2.4% and the Fed’s preferred PCE measure stayed elevated at 3.7% in July. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index accelerated to 5.4% year-over-year in August (up 0.4% monthly), highlighting ongoing pipeline cost pressures.

While inflation does indeed remain sticky above the Fed's 2% target, have conditions changed significantly to move at least four more FOMC members in favor of a hike? The three hawkish dissenters in July (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) are expected to remain in the hike camp. Warsh's Jackson Hole comments suggest he's in favor of tightening. Markets seem convinced at least three more will fall in line.

The vote split today will be interesting. The trade will also be keen to glean any insight into the policy path in Q4 from the updated economic projections (dot plot) and Warsh’s press conference.

Saudi air defenses intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered restricted airspace over the holy city, prompting strong Saudi warnings and regional condemnation. The broader conflict continues to disrupt oil flows, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline still offline after recent drone attacks and transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited, keeping oil elevated above $100.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.26 (+0.03%)
5-Day Change: -$54.02 (-1.23%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,628.27 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +10.66

Gold is up more than 1% in early U.S. trading, reaching a new high for the week, as the market squares up ahead of today's key Fed decision. With a rate hike largely priced in and the dollar trading higher for a sixth straight session, the yellow metal may be reasserting itself as an inflation hedge and general safe-haven play amid a grim fiscal situation.



The 50-day moving average has been attracting buying interest this week, so we'll view it as important for post-Fed trading. A close below $4,280.77 would set a more bearish tone, highlighting an important Fibonacci level at $4,232.32. Monday's low at $4,254.14 marks a solid intervening barrier. If guidance hints at further tightening this year, tests below $4,200 would need to be considered.

If guidance is more suggestive of a one-and-done event, scope would be seen for short-term tests above $4,400, with the 20-day MA at $4,4456.33 the likely attraction. A close above the latter would bode well for a test of the 200-day MA at $4,544.22 with potential for probes above $4,600.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.056 (+1.66%)
5-Day Change: -$2.427 (-3.61%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $41.142 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +30.00

Silver is rebounding from Monday’s six-week low and has reached a new high for this week. The move may simply reflect position-squaring ahead of the Fed decision, with the policy outcome and guidance likely to determine the short-term direction.



Like gold, the 50-day moving average attracted buying interest. A negative reaction to the Fed would put Monday's low at $62.346 in jeopardy. Penetration would return focus to the $61.015 Fibonacci level.

On the upside, minor chart resistance at $65.273 protects the convergence of the 20- and 100-day MAs at $66.310/$66.640. Penetration of the latter would bode well for a retest of the 9-Sep high at $68.314. Above that, renewed probes above $70 become likely.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week on defense with focus squarely on Wednesday's Fed decision

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are laser-focused on this week’s FOMC meeting, with the trade pricing an 85-88% chance of a 25 bp rate hike on Wednesday. Oil above $100, last week's sticky inflation readings, and a resilient labor market have led to much more hawkish market expectations.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed last week, underpinning the dollar, as hotter inflation data and escalating oil prices fueled expectations of tighter Fed policy, with the 10-year note pushing close to the key 5% level by Friday. This week is beginning with yields hovering just below that psychological threshold amid high odds of a rate hike on Wednesday, keeping bond markets on edge.

Markets are also looking ahead to the BoJ meeting (Sep 17-18), with a 25 bp hike to 1.25% – the highest in 31 years – almost fully priced in. Traders will hang on Governor Ueda’s Friday presser for any hawkish signal on faster tightening, as sticky inflation risks from oil, yen weakness, and AI demand keep the pressure on Japan’s long-awaited normalization path.

Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk, called for deliberately slowing frontier model development due to safety risks. The comments triggered a sharp selloff in chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks as investors suddenly priced in lower near-term demand for GPUs, data centers, and the entire buildout trade, while rotating into cybersecurity and software names seen as relative winners in a more cautious AI era.

President Trump dismissed these concerns, calling the AI slowdown a “sick conspiracy” that only benefits China, declaring on Truth Social that “the only control or ‘guardrails’ that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT.” He insisted the U.S. is already leading China and that “WHOEVER WINS AI, WINS,” while telling reporters the country cannot afford to slow down.

China has already rejected calls for a global slowdown as “fearmongering” and a “Cold War playbook” aimed at containing its progress and locking in an American lead. If the U.S. slows development, China and other ambitious countries – particularly in Asia (South Korea, Japan, India, Singapore) and some Middle Eastern states – would be incentivized to ramp up investment and infrastructure to capture relative advantage, talent, and market share.

For better or worse, the AI genie is out of the bottle. Competitive pressures from China and other nations ensure the technology will keep advancing rapidly somewhere in the world.

The Iran war, now in its seventh month, remains a grinding standoff with no breakthrough. Over the past few days, Saudi Arabia shut its critical East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks launched from Iraq (widely linked to Iran-backed militias), while Iran-aligned Houthis seized more Red Sea territory and the strategic Bab al-Mandeb approaches. Planned Gulf-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were postponed, keeping oil supply risks elevated as Trump signals openness to a deal after the midterms.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$54.04 (-1.24%)
5-Day Change: -$128.26 (-2.91%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,626.99 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +8.22

Gold begins the week on defense, weighed by a firmer dollar and rising rate-hike expectations ahead of the FOMC policy decision on Wednesday. The yellow metal dipped to a five-week low before catching a bit of an intraday bid.

 

While gold traded briefly below the rising 50-day moving average, the 61.8% retracement level of the June/August rally at $4,232.32 was left untested. The declining 100-day moving average still seems to be an attraction, but the yellow metal remains lower on the day.

I'm looking for trading to be generally limited by the 50-day MA on the downside and the 20-day on the upside ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. If the Fed remains on hold (my leaning), last week's high at $4,442.87 should get challenged quickly. Above that, the 200-day MA at $4,543.25 and the 25-Aug high at $4,696.31 would be attractions.

Despite the recent sell-off, investors continue to exhibit an interest in gold. Global ETFs saw net inflows of 8.7 tonnes last week. It was the tenth-straight week of net inflows. 

If the Fed does indeed tighten, more serious tests below the 50-day MA would be likely, with potential to the $4,200 zone. Deeper retracement would become likely if the Fed indicates that further hikes are in the offing. If the statement, projections, and Warsh comments suggest another hike is off the table into 2027, gold could rebound into the range.

Gold’s underlying fundamentals remain broadly supportive. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sticky inflation pressures from elevated oil prices, and ongoing central-bank demand continue to underpin longer-term investor interest in the metal as a store of value and portfolio hedge.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.700 (-2.64%)
5-Day Change: -$3.120 (-4.71%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $41.142 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +25.03

Silver fell to a five-week low in early U.S. trading on Monday. The white metal is being pressured by expectations of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday, which is providing support for the dollar.



Talk of an AI slowdown has pressured copper prices by dimming expectations for the massive data-center and power-infrastructure buildout that drives a meaningful share of the metal’s demand growth. Silver, which is used in electronics, high-density connectors, and thermal materials within AI hardware, faces similar headwinds as investors reassess industrial demand tied to the same capital-spending cycle.

The FOMC meeting is the market's focus this week. Like gold, I expect silver to rebound if the Fed remains on hold. The converging 20-day and 100-day moving averages at $66.447/$66.808 mark an important resistance zone that will tighten ahead of the policy decision. A push above this area would bode well for a retest of last week's high at $68.314, with potential for renewed probes above $70.

If the Fed does indeed tighten policy as the market now seems convinced they will do, more serious tests below the 50-day moving average at $62.571 become likely. A breach of today's low at $62.346 would shift attention to important Fibonacci support at $61.015.

That being said, silver’s underlying fundamentals remain strongly bullish due to a projected sixth consecutive year of structural market deficit totaling around 46 million ounces in 2026, driven by stagnant mine supply, while industrial demand from electronics, solar, EVs, and emerging AI applications (talk of slowdown notwithstanding) continues to outpace available metal. This multi-year shortfall has steadily depleted above-ground inventories, creating a tightening physical market that supports higher prices over the medium to long-term regardless of near-term macroeconomic headwinds.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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