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Gold firms on revived de-escalation optimism, while silver lags

Outside Market Developments: Risk appetite is elevated heading into the weekend amid the latest rebound in optimism over Middle East de-escalation. On Thursday, U.S. and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the current ceasefire by 60 days, fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the U.S. naval blockade.

Emphasis on the word "tentative." We've seemingly been on the verge of a peace deal numerous times over the course of the war, only to see them fizzle. The latest deal still requires final approval from President Trump and confirmation from Iran.

Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program will begin with that sign-off. Given the red-line nature of U.S. demands on Iran's nuclear capabilities, this suggests there is still plenty of potential for any deal to unravel.

There's a growing perception that Iran is attempting to drag negotiations out until the pressures of global energy prices and broad inflation force President Trump to cut a more Iran-favorable deal. Trump, on the other hand, likely wants to wrap the war up quickly to hopefully preserve GOP congressional majorities. The risk is that he may see further attacks on Iran as the more expedient option.

Stocks remain well bid near record highs on the hopes for peace. Zerohedge amusingly noted, "Futures Hit Another Record High After Pricing In Same 'Iran Deal' Every Day For The Past Month."

Stocks are also garnering support from tech/AI earnings momentum. Dell shares surged after reporting a massive earnings beat on Thursday, which was driven largely by explosive AI server revenue. This prompted an upgrade to full-year guidance.

U.S. stock buoyancy and AI/tech optimism do attract foreign capital inflows into U.S. equities, which requires foreigners to buy dollars and provides underlying support for the greenback. Recent TIC data shows consistent net foreign inflows into U.S. assets.

Markets interpreted the April PCE data (released Thursday) as showing stubbornly elevated but largely in-line inflation. Headline PCE inflation came in at +3.8% y/y (hottest since May 2023) and core at +3.3% y/y (highest since October 2023).

While multiweek lows in oil further tamp inflation worries and rate-hike expectations, the dollar index remains in the upper half of this year's range. A breach of formidable chart/Fibonacci support at 97.62/50 is needed to confirm a weaker tone within that range.

Next week, markets will focus on fresh U.S. economic data, particularly the May employment report on Friday, alongside ISM Manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), and ADP private payrolls (Wednesday). These releases will help gauge the health of the U.S. labor market with implications for the policy outlook. Upcoming FedSpeak may provide additional clues, although the new Fed chair favors less talk, lest policymakers become "prisoners of their own words."

Middle East headlines and corporate results are expected to remain key themes driving risk sentiment. Further progress or setbacks on the U.S.-Iran framework in particular will move markets.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$42.52 (+0.95%)
5-Day Change: +$11.99 (+0.27%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,251.28 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.12

Gold appears on track to notch a higher weekly close after falling to a nine-week low on Thursday. It would be the first higher weekly close in three. Nonetheless, gold seems likely to register its third consecutive lower monthly close.



Gold probed briefly below the 200-day moving average earlier in the week, but rebounded on revived hopes for a peace deal. However, I would categorize the rebound thus far as somewhat tentative, with the market having grown weary of the deal/no-deal swings in recent weeks.

Short-term closes above the 20-day MA at $4,587.45 and the 50-day at $4,632.58 are needed to establish a more bullish technical tone. Such a move would target the $4,686.24 Fibonacci level initially, but potential would be back to the May high at $4,773.13. Beyond the latter, the $5,000 zone would be back in play.

On the other hand, a failure to move convincingly – and sustain gains – above $4,600 would leave the 200-day MA vulnerable to further tests. Certainly, setbacks to de-escalation have the potential to put the yellow metal back under pressure.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.221 (-0.29%)
5-Day Change: +$0.120 (+0.16%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.763 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +105.19

Silver is little changed on the day, teetering on the verge of a third consecutive lower weekly close. However, the white metal does appear poised to end the string of lower monthly closes at two. As of this writing, silver is up about 2.5% in May.



Today's lack of upside follow-through is somewhat of a concern given the ongoing tech/AI outperformance, and in particular the big Dell beat. I would have expected silver to be leading on the rebound. I'll be watching the gold/silver ratio closely next week.

That being said, the ability of silver to hold above $70 this week is encouraging to the bull camp. A close above the 50-day MA at $75.925 would bode well for tests of the 20-day at $78.088 and good chart resistance at $78.820/886. Penetration of the latter is needed to shift attention back to the $80 zone.

If silver can't maintain gains above $75 early next week, Thursday's low at $71.808 would be vulnerable to a retest. Minor intervening supports are noted at $74.629. $73.585 and $73.153.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver slide on lingering peace deal skepticism, firmer yields, and dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are tilted toward risk-off amid skepticism surrounding the Middle East peace process. Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that a deal is "not imminent," highlighting deep distrust and unresolved key issues (nuclear program, sanctions, verification). Iran has also accused the U.S. of ceasefire violations in the wake of this week's U.S."self-defense strikes" against missile launch sites and Iranian boats that were reportedly attempting to lay mines near the Strait of Hormuz.

That being said, President Trump said today that negotiations with Iran continue and that the Iranians are “starting to give us the things that they have to give us,” while cautioning that he is not satisfied with the current state of talks and will not rush into a deal. He reiterated that it must be a “great deal” or there will be no deal at all, warned that the U.S. is prepared to “finish the job” militarily if needed.

While oil prices have moderated somewhat this week, persistently high energy prices continue to underpin short- and medium-term consumer inflation expectations, reducing hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts. This is keeping pressure on bonds and supporting a stronger dollar.

The Fed's favored gauge of inflation comes out on Thursday. Median expectations for April PCE inflation are +0.5% m/m and 3.8% y/y, versus +0.7% and 3.5% in March.

A hot inflation print tomorrow could boost Fed rate hike expectations. Currently, Fed funds futures are implying scope for 14 bps of tightening by year-end. Given that these are April numbers, seeing any evidence of cooling is unlikely.

Despite the risks for tighter monetary policy, stocks remain underpinned by exceptionally strong corporate earnings and persistent AI/tech optimism. This growth narrative is outweighing higher-for-longer interest rate concerns for many investors, as the market focuses on future earnings potential rather than near-term policy.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$61.48 (-1.36%)
5-Day Change: -$93.07 (-2.05%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,251.28 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +27.31

Gold has fallen to eight-week lows as Middle East peace negotiations drag on and persistent inflation worries keep yields and the dollar supported. This is keeping the yellow metal under pressure for a third straight week.



We may also be seeing early signs of seasonal selling. Gold has historically shown seasonal weakness, or "summer doldrums," from June to August. June is often the weakest month on average, with studies showing returns around -0.5% to -1.5%. However, the seasonal pattern can be overridden by major macro or geopolitical events. In fact, I expect markets to continue rotating primarily on U.S./Iran diplomatic development.

Support marked by the 200-day moving average and an important Fibonacci level at $4,406.30/$4,401.28 has successfully contained the downside thus far, providing some hope for the longer-term bull camp. However, it would take a climb back above $4,600 to set a more favorable tone within the well-defined range.

On the other hand, a convincing move below $4,400 would shift focus to the next significant Fibonacci level at $4,288.92. Additional intervening supports are noted at $4,352.04 (26-Mar low) and $4,308.83 (24-Mar low).

Wednesday's PCE data, particularly the inflation print, could set the short-term tone. If the sticky inflation theme is reinforced, Treasury yields and the dollar would likely firm, triggering fresh selling in gold. Conversely, softer-than-expected inflation readings could support a modest rebound in gold.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$2.668 (-3.47%)
5-Day Change: -$1.272 (-1.68%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.763 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +101.13

Silver has slipped to new lows for the week, weighed by weakness in gold and a firm dollar. Tech/AI optimism continues to provide some underpinning.



Last week's low at $73.153 has contained the downside thus far, keeping more important chart support at $70.893 (29-Apr low) at bay. The 200-day MA at $66.901 remains well protected.

While Middle East headlines will continue to drive markets, tomorrow’s PCE inflation data could trigger new multi-week highs or lows, depending on its implications for Fed policy. Kevin Warsh’s recent ascension to Fed Chair has introduced an additional level of uncertainty, as the trade grapples with his more hawkish history on inflation, potential balance sheet reduction, and expectations for a less interventionist approach to monetary policy.

A short-term close back above the 20-day MA would set a more favorable technical tone within the lower half of this year's broad range. Such a move would bode well for renewed probes above $80 with potential to the 100-day MA at $81.283.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver extended losses overseas before recovering somewhat

Outside Market Developments: Markets begin the week in risk-off mode as traders continue to digest last week's underwhelming summit between Presidents Trump and Xi. The talks resulted in modest progress on trade, including Chinese commitments to buy U.S. Boeing aircraft, soybeans, and addressing U.S. access to rare earths, but yielded no breakthroughs on thorny issues like Taiwan and Iran.

Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled, and tensions are on the rise. The U.S. and Israel are reportedly preparing for possible renewed military strikes on Iran as early as this week, with Trump warning that “the clock is ticking” and urging Tehran to make a deal or face severe consequences.

Oil prices remain elevated, stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed policy expectations. Markets are still trying to get a clear read on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, a challenge that will likely persist ahead of the June FOMC meeting. In reality, investors may have to wait until the minutes are released on July 8 for more substantive clues about his policy approach.

During his confirmation hearing, Warsh called for a “regime change” at the central bank — including less talk, a laser focus on the statutory dual mandate, a smaller balance sheet, and updated approaches to measuring and fighting inflation. Consistent with his desire for reduced communication, he is also expected to significantly scale back or potentially eliminate the regular post-FOMC press conferences.

While Warsh is unlikely to formally restrict speaking by other Fed governors or regional bank presidents, the exact shape of the new communication policy remains unclear. He may significantly reduce the volume and specificity of FedSpeak, making statements more opaque or less frequent. If so, markets could see increased volatility around major economic data releases as investors lose the frequent guidance they’ve grown accustomed to.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.19 (0.00%)
5-Day Change: -$166.22 (-3.51%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,203.52 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.56

Gold extended to six-week lows in overseas trading on Monday, weighed by ongoing uncertainty on several fronts, and an underpinned dollar. While the yellow metal recovered somewhat during the U.S. session, the short-term tone remains vulnerable.



As noted in Friday's commentary, with gold trading below the important moving averages, and key short-term support at $4,503.02 (4-May low) negated, a challenge of the rising 200-day MA at $4,365.14 must be considered. The $4,420.80 (30-Mar low) and $4,401.28 (Fibonacci) levels provide intervening barriers. 

Global gold ETFs notch their first weekly net inflows in four weeks, albeit a scant 1.8 tonnes. North American investors were the lone net buyers, but interest has been subdued in recent weeks, with U.S. investors in particular showing caution amid higher-for-longer rate expectations and the oil/inflation shock.

The price of gold will continue to swing primarily on Middle East headlines. Renewed optimism about the end of the war is needed to put oil, yields, and the dollar under pressure. A rebound above $4,600 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, suggesting further consolidation within the broad range is in the offing. 

Monday's intraday high at $4,580.00 marks initial resistance. There is a series of daily highs from the latter half of last week that protect the more important $4,773.13 high from 12-May. Last week's failed challenge of the 100-day MA (now at $4,795.49) reinforces its significance as a key technical barrier on the upside.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.221 (-0.29%)
5-Day Change: -$8.555 (-9.94%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $32.150 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +111.57

Silver is probed briefly below the $75 level on Monday, weighed by heightened Middle East tensions, a lack of clarity on trade with China, and ongoing uncertainty about Fed policy (and transparency) under Chairman Warsh. While the white metal recovered intraday to trade higher on the day, last week's failure from in front of $90 favors further choppy consolidation in the lower half of the range.



The move back below the 20- and 50-day MAs is troubling for the short-term technical picture, although silver appears poised to close near these indicators. A retest of the April low at $70.893 can not be ruled out at this point.

Silver will remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, Fed expectations, and the dollar. A rebound above $80 is needed to set a more favorable tone within the range and suggest potential for another run at $90.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver tumble on China and Middle East disappointments, stronger dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are reacting with disappointment, as the two-day Trump-Xi summit ended without major breakthroughs on contentious issues such as Taiwan, tariffs, technology restrictions, or the Iran conflict. While both leaders highlighted constructive dialogue and a desire to improve trade cooperation and avoid escalation amid ongoing global tensions, markets are ending the week in risk-off mode.

Adding to the risk aversion is a similar disappointment in the lack of progress toward a peace deal with Iran. Talks continue through backchannels, but momentum is slow, and the ceasefire remains shaky. Renewed military action remains a real risk if President Trump's nuclear red line isn’t addressed.

The U.S. blockade of Iran continues. Passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, keeping oil prices elevated and stoking global inflation. This week’s U.S. economic data showed a clear resurgence in inflation pressures, with April CPI rising to 3.8% y/y and PPI surging 1.4% m/m to 6% annually. Retail sales and other indicators pointed to resilient but cautious consumer demand.

Those inflation prints in particular triggered a sharp hawkish shift in Fed expectations, with markets virtually eliminating any chance of rate cuts this year and now pricing in roughly a 35-40% probability of at least one rate hike by year-end. Goldman Sachs and BofA have pushed back their forecasts for the first cut into late 2026 or even 2027, as persistent energy-driven price pressures and a resilient economy reduce the Fed’s room to ease policy.

President Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, takes the reins of the Fed today after being narrowly confirmed by the Senate on Wednesday, as Jerome Powell's eight-year term comes to an end. Warsh is likely to maintain a data-dependent, inflation-focused stance in the near term amid current pressures. His first FOMC meeting as Chair is scheduled for 17-Jun.

In the week ahead, markets will focus on the release of the FOMC minutes from the May meeting on Wednesday for any additional clues on the likelihood of rate hikes versus cuts. The trade will also continue to digest the Trump-Xi summit and monitor developments in the Middle East.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$86.05 (-1.85%)
5-Day Change: -$172.87 (-3.66%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,161.16 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +34.60

Gold has fallen to new lows for the week, weighed by disappointment on multiple fronts, which is sending safe-haven flows into the dollar. The yellow metal is poised to notch a more than 3% loss on the week after gains on Monday and Tuesday stalled shy of the 100-day moving average.



Gold is historically a well-established hedge against both geopolitical uncertainty and inflation. However, the market is focusing instead on the implications for Fed policy, where persistent war-related energy inflation has pushed markets to price out 2026 rate cuts, buoying yields and the greenback.

That being said, geopolitical and price risks are seen as providing longer-term underpinnings to the market. Gold remains in a structural bull market, up 43% from a year ago (and +5% YTD), with most major banks forecasting prices to climb toward $5,000-$6,300 by the end of the year (and higher into 2027), driven by sustained central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor diversification away from fiat currencies (particularly the dollar).

Key short-term support is well defined by the 4-May low at $4,503.02. If this level gives way, focus will initially shift to the $4,401.28 Fibonacci level, but a challenge of the rising 200-day MA at $4,359.06 would have to be considered.

Price action will continue to hinge primarily on Middle East headlines. Renewed progress toward fully opening the Strait of Hormuz and a peace deal would likely put oil, yields, and the dollar under pressure. A rebound in gold above $4,600 would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, suggesting further consolidation within the broad range is in the offing.

This week's high at $4,773.13 marks important resistance, reinforcing the significance of the 100-day MA at $4,793.20. The declining 20-day MA at $4,663.22 provides an intervening barrier.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$4.614 (-5.52%)
5-Day Change: -$2.672 (-3.32%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.945 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +119.59

Silver is off more than 8%, adding to losses incurred on Thursday, as recent trade optimism evaporated following an underwhelming outcome to the Trump-Xi summit. The white metal is on track to close more than 5% lower on the week as dimmed rate cut expectations, higher yields, and a stronger dollar add to the pressure.



The inability to reclaim the 90-handle and sustain gains above the 100-day moving average leaves silver firmly entrenched in the lower half of the broad $121.630/$61.036 range that formed earlier in the year. More than half of the recent rally has already been retraced, and a close below the 20-day MA today would suggest scope for a retest of the late-April low at $70.893.

Like gold, price action in silver will remain sensitive to Middle East headlines, Fed expectations, and the dollar. A rebound above $80 would be somewhat encouraging, and a close back above the 100-day MA at $81.195 more so. However, the sharp losses at the end of this week have once again severely rattled the confidence of the bull camp.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold weighed by hot inflation data, but strong silver provides some underpinning

Outside Market Developments: PPI for April came in hotter-than-expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will leave rates higher for longer. Headline PPI accelerated to a 40-month high of 6% y/y, versus 4.3% in March. Core PPI rose to a 5.2% annual pace, also a 40-month high, from 4% in March.

Both CPI and PPI surged in April, driven primarily by higher energy prices associated with the Iran conflict. Core measures, excluding food and energy, rose more modestly, suggesting the inflation spike was largely energy-driven rather than broad-based.

Fed funds futures continue to reflect a decreasing probability of easing this year. In fact, the implied Fed funds rate for December is currently 3.72%, suggesting a tilt toward modest tightening risk.

Hotter inflation, more hawkish policy expectations, and some trade optimism attributed to the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing,  pushed the dollar index to new highs for the week. However, persistent U.S. fiscal concerns and ongoing global de-dollarization are seen as headwinds for the greenback.

President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday – his first visit to China since 2017 – for a high-stakes two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meetings are slated to focus on trade and agriculture purchases, the Iran conflict, Taiwan arms sales, technology/AI restrictions, and efforts to stabilize U.S.-China relations.

Markets are likely to swing sharply on headlines from the Trump-Xi summit and Middle East developments in the coming days. Positive progress – such as Chinese pressure on Iran to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz, new trade/agriculture deals, or eased Taiwan tensions – could quickly lower oil prices, cool inflation fears, and spark a risk-on rally in equities while weighing on the dollar and yields. Conversely, deadlock or escalation in either arena would reinforce stagflation risks, pushing oil and yields higher, pressuring growth stocks, and supporting safe-haven flows.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$21.07 (-0.46%)
5-Day Change: -$3.82 (-0.08%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +40.37

Gold continues to trade modestly lower on the week, weighed by evidence of accelerating inflation, dimming hopes for Fed easing, and a firmer dollar. The yellow metal is consolidating below the 100-day moving average, awaiting directional cues from the Trump-Xi summit, and//or fresh headlines out of the Middle East. Strong silver underpins.



A revival of Middle East de-escalation optimism and lower oil prices are probably needed to generate a convincing move above the 100-day MA. If that were to happen, it would bode well for a short-term retest of the mid-April high at $4,886.18. A subsequent breach of that level would favor further retracement toward $5,000.

If gold is unable to sustain recent tests above the 20-day MA ($4,684.06), scope would be seen for a retreat to the $4,600 zone. If $4,600 is penetrated, further retracement toward last week's low at $4,503.02 would have to be considered.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.148 (+0.17%)
5-Day Change: +$10.228 (+13.22%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +158.72

Silver is pushing higher for a seventh straight session, hitting nine-week highs above $89, as strong supply-demand fundamentals and hopes for a productive U.S.-China summit override inflation worries and a firmer dollar. Optimism around ongoing tech and AI infrastructure expansion is driving expectations for robust industrial demand, while the market is simultaneously on track for a sixth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit.



The gold/silver ratio has tumbled below 56 for the first time since early March, establishing 15-week lows and reflecting an outperforming silver market. This move highlights silver’s strong industrial supply/demand dynamics, versus gold's more traditional safe-haven appeal.

Despite the recent tailwind, silver remains in the lower half of the broad range that was established earlier in the year. A short-term push above $90 would bode well for a challenge of the midpoint of the range at $91.88. Above that, the March high at $96.393, and $98.433 (61.8% retracement of the decline from $121.630) would be back in play.

I think it would take a retreat below the 100-day MA at $81.113 to take the wind out of silver's sails at this point. Recent lows at $85.725 (Wednesday) and $83.096 (Tuesday) provide good intervening supports.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver poised for first higher weekly closes in three

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday as three U.S. Navy warships transited the waterway. "No U.S. assets were struck. U.S. Central Command eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites; command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes," according to CENTCOM.

Iran accused the U.S. of initiating the clash by targeting its vessels and coastal areas, calling it a ceasefire violation. President Trump described the incident as minor and said the fragile ceasefire remains in effect. “They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” said Trump.

Iran is still reviewing the latest U.S. peace proposal. Trump continues to say that talks are “going very well,” but need to conclude quickly.

April nonfarm payroll rose by 115k, beating consensus expectations of around 60k, with gains led by health care, transportation/warehousing, and retail trade. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while wage growth remained modest at +0.2% m/m, painting a picture of a resilient labor market and underpinning risk appetite.

Job market resilience generally makes the Fed more comfortable holding interest rates steady, allowing it to continue focusing on fighting sticky inflation. The central bank can afford to wait for clearer signs that inflation is easing without risking a significant rise in unemployment.

Markets will be focused on inflation data in the week ahead. April CPI comes out on Tuesday, and PPI is up on Wednesday. These inflation readings, alongside housing data and FedSpeak, will shape expectations for the path of interest rates, while ongoing developments around the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil supply risks will keep geopolitical risks in play.

Additionally, the term of Fed chair Powell ends on 15-May. He is widely expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, pending final Senate confirmation. Powell could stay on as interim chair if necessary. I'm not expecting anything definitive on policy from Warsh until after he's presided over his first FOMC meeting.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$32.70 (+0.70%)
5-Day Change: +$100.86 (+2.19%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +38.50

Gold heads into the weekend with a bit of a bid, and appears poised for its first higher weekly close in three. The yellow metal has been underpinned by optimism around Middle East de-escalation, lower oil, and a weaker dollar, allowing it to largely shrug off the most recent clash in the Strait of Hormuz and stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.



The previous two closes have been right around the 20-day MA. I'd like to see a more convincing close above the 20-day to set up upside follow-through in the week ahead to challenge the 100-day MA at $4,783.91. Intervening resistance is noted at the convergence of this week's high and the 50-day MA at $4,764.57/$4,768.85.

An eventual convincing breach of the 100-day MA would bode well for a short-term retest of the mid-April high at $4,886.18. Penetration of that high would favor further retracement toward the $5,000 level.

However, price action will continue to hinge on Middle East headlines. If gold can't sustain the move above the 20-day MA, look for a retest of the $4,600 zone. A retreat below $4,600 would leave Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a challenge.

While gold is entrenched within the range that formed earlier in the year, the long-term outlook remains structurally bullish. Most major banks are forecasting prices to climb toward $5,400 – $6,300 by the end of 2026 – 2027, with potential as high as $7,000 – $10,000 by 2030, driven by sustained central bank accumulation, investor diversification away from the dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and persistent global debt and inflation concerns.

Incrementum noted in its latest IGWT Report: "[G]old ETFs recorded one of the largest monthly outflows in recent years, totaling 85 tonnes in March, while COMEX gold deliveries continued to decline from recent highs. Together, these dynamics point to easing speculative activity, a development that bodes well for the health and sustainability of the long-term gold bull market."


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.097 (+2.67%)
5-Day Change: +$5.091 (+6.76%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +130.30

Silver continues to probe above the 100-day moving average and appears on track for its first higher weekly close in three. The white metal is being buoyed by the de-escalating situation in the Middle East and a weaker dollar, leading to a three-week high on Thursday, and what looks like it will be a more than 6% gain for the week.



Strong tech/AI earnings in recent weeks are contributing to the bid. They reinforce confidence in sustained heavy spending on cloud infrastructure, data centers, and AI hardware – sectors that are driving accelerating industrial silver demand for servers, electronics, connectors, and thermal management.

Industrial applications now make up nearly 60% of total silver demand (a record share). While overall industrial fabrication dipped slightly last year due to solar cutbacks, non-PV sectors continue showing structural, inelastic growth, contributing to persistent market deficits. This shift toward high-tech, hard-to-substitute uses underpins silver’s strong industrial floor.

While silver remains in the lower half of the wide $121.630/$61.036 range from Q1 of this year, the supply/demand equation remains broadly constructive. A convincing close above the 100-day at $80.633 would bode well for a retest of the mid-April high at $83.046. Above the latter, the midpoint of that wide range at $91.333 would be a logical attraction.

The convergence of the 50- and 20-day moving averages at the $76.798/$76.475 zone will be the important support zone to watch in the week ahead. Intervening supports are marked by today's low at $78.341 and Thursday's low at $77.005.

If silver can't hold above the 20-day, further consolidating in the lower half of the range would become likely. Potential would initially be back to this week's low at $72.264.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver rebound on de-escalation optimism, weaker dollar

Outside Market Developments: President Trump posted that Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz will be paused for a brief period to see if a final agreement to end the war can be achieved. "Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement," wrote Trump.

The post revived hopes that an end to the war may be near. This optimism is in sharp contrast to events earlier in the week when the fragile ceasefire seemed on the verge of collapse as both sides were shooting at each other.

Oil prices eased, moderating inflation risks. While Fed funds futures reflect a modestly more dovish tilt, expectations are still that the central bank is on hold for the remainder of the year. Nonetheless, the dollar index eked out a 10-week low.



Trump followed up with a fresh threat to resume the bombing of Iran "at a much higher level and intensity," if Tehran doesn't make a deal. This signals that the temporary de-escalation is conditional and that the U.S. is prepared to escalate significantly if talks fail.

Today's ADP report showed that U.S. private employers added 109k jobs in April, above expectations of +99k, versus a revised 61k in March. The report suggests continued labor market resilience and generates some optimism heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, where consensus is +60k jobs.

Hopes for peace, lower energy prices, the ADP beat, and solid tech/AI earnings are all contributing to risk-on sentiment.
Markets will remain firmly in the grip of Middle East headlines.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$160.78 (+3.53%)
5-Day Change: +$145.29 (+3.20%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +37.39

Gold jumped to new highs for the week on fresh optimism about progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Oil prices fell, relieving some inflationary pressure, and the dollar retreated.



The probe above the 20-day moving average is encouraging, but last week’s high at $4,729.72 remains intact, as early signs of de-escalation were quickly followed by threats of renewed bombing. Middle East headlines will remain the dominant driver of market direction.

A close above the 20-day and a breach of $4,729.72 would bode well for an upside extension to challenge the $4,776.75/$4.790.35 zone, where the 100- and 50-day MAs are converging. Above that, the mid-April high at $4,888.18 would be back in play.

On the downside, intraday support at $4,661.89 is bolstered by former resistance at $4,659.44. A move back below this area would suggest potential back below $4,600, leaving Monday's low at $4,503.02 vulnerable to a retest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.791 (+6.58%)
5-Day Change: +$5.832 (+8.18%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +117.50

Silver has surged more than 6% intraday, buoyed by optimism over Middle East de-escalation, a weaker dollar, and better-than-expected April jobs growth. Strong earnings from tech/AI companies provide additional support for the white metal, reinforcing the narrative of ongoing robust AI infrastructure spending.



While silver remains entrenched in the lower half of the broad range established earlier in the year, today's tests above the 20- and 50-day moving averages offer encouragement to the bull camp. A close above those key indicators would bode well for a short-term push back above $80 to challenge the rising 100-day MA at $80.372. Above the latter, focus would return to the 17-Apr high at $83.046.

The 20-day MA at $76.098 marks first support, which protects today's early U.S. low at $75.845. If silver can't hold above the latter, the lows for the week at $72.658/264 would be back in play, with potential for a challenge of the $70 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver weighed by rising Middle East tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The week begins with heightened Middle East tensions. Iran claims that it struck a U.S. Navy warship in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles. CENTCOM confirmed Iran launched an attack, but said, “No U.S. Navy ships have been struck.”

U.S. forces retaliated, destroying six Iranian small boats that were involved in the attack. While the ceasefire has not been formally ended, with both sides firing on the other, the trade is understandably concerned.

 With passage through the Strait being actively challenged by Iran, and the U.S. continuing its blockade, oil prices remain elevated near four-year highs. Brent crude continues to test above $120 per barrel.

Persistent inflation concerns are keeping dovish Fed bets in check, underpinning yields and the dollar. The greenback is also garnering safe-haven interest. 

On Friday, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from Europe from 15% to 25%. This reamplifies trade uncertainty, adding to the bid in the dollar.

Markets will continue to react to Middle East headlines. Focus this week will also be on U.S. jobs data, culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for April. Consensus is currently +60k payrolls with the jobless rate steady at 4.3%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$52.78 (-1.14%)
5-Day Change: -$158.01 (-3.38%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +30.72

Gold is under pressure to begin the week amid heightened Middle East tensions, higher oil prices, and a stronger dollar. The yellow metal has notched a fresh four-week low but remains above the midpoint of the range that has emerged since the March low was established at $4,100.32.

 

With gold well below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, the downside is seen as more vulnerable. If the midpoint of the range-within-the-range at $4,494.25 gives way, look for additional retracement to the 4,401.28 level. Below the latter, the rising 200-day MA at $4,299.85 and the $4,268.92 Fibonacci level would be in play.

While the short-term technical picture has deteriorated in recent weeks, the yellow is still up nearly 40% from a year ago. 
Longer-term bullish factors such as central bank buying, structural demand, and de-dollarization persist, leading many analysts to target significantly higher prices later in the year.

The World Gold Council noted last week that central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold on a net basis in Q1, a rise of 3% y/y. Bar and coin demand surged 42% y/y to 474 tonnes, the second-highest quarter on record. Global ETF buying increased by 62 tonnes, tempered by sizable outflows from U.S. funds in March. Demand for gold used in technology grew by 1% to 82 tonnes, "fuelled largely by the continued growth in AI infrastructure."

Investment demand for gold now significantly exceeds fabrication demand. Weaker jewellery consumption, combined with surging investor interest, has markedly shifted the composition of global gold demand in recent years, according to the WGC, with investors playing a much larger role relative to traditional fabrication uses.

Given the record-high gold prices, jewellery demand faced pressure with volumes declining 23% year-over-year. However, total consumer spending on gold jewellery rose sharply by 31%, indicating strong positive sentiment and a willingness among buyers to purchase higher-value pieces even at elevated prices.

Overall, gold demand (including OTC) rose 2% to 1,231 tonnes in Q1. "This modest growth in volumes combined with gold’s exceptional price rise, generated a 74% jump in the value of quarterly demand to a record US$193bn, said the WGC.

Gold must regain the 100-day MA at $4,770.43 to set a more favorable tone within the range. Intervening barriers are marked by today's overseas high at $4,628.92, Friday's high at $4,659.44, and the declining 20-day MA at $4,709.44


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.996 (-2.65%)
5-Day Change: -$2.385 (-3.16%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +101.97

Silver has retreated, weighed by heightened inflation concerns, dimming hopes for a Fed rate cut later in the year, a firmer dollar, and multi-week lows in gold. Gains late last week were limited by the 20-day moving average, leaving the white metal well contained within its recent range.



Silver notched its second consecutive lower weekly close on Friday, and April was the second straight lower monthly close. Given that silver remains below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs and the positioning of those indicators relative to each other, the market remains vulnerable.

A retest of last week's low at $70.893, and a downside extension to the $70 zone must be considered. However, revived hopes for the ceasefire and peace process between the U.S. and Iran could change that quickly. Middle East headlines will continue to drive the market.

A short-term close above the 20-day MA would shift focus to last week's high at $76.950. A breach of this level would bode well for a challenge of the 100-day MA at $80.172.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver hit multi-week lows with Iran war stalemate and Fed in focus

Outside Market Developments: The Fed held rates steady today, as was widely expected. The vote was 8-4, reflecting the highest number of dissenters in more than 30 years.

The dissent is a little complex, with only Governor Stephen Miran truly dissenting in favor of a 25 bps rate cut. The other three, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, supported a steady Fed funds rate but objected to the "inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time." That makes one dovish dissenter and three gently hawlish dissenters.

“In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” was the line in question for the hawkish dissenters.

Given the three consecutive rate cuts into year-end 2025, the word “additional” implies that the central bank is considering further rate cuts going forward, creating a subtle easing bias. The three dissenting members believed a more neutral stance was warranted, in light of persistent inflation concerns, especially rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

The FOMC did express concerns about elevated inflation and slow job growth, but acknowledged that "economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace" and the unemployment rate is "little changed." Despite the alleged "dovish tilt," I see the guidance as generally neutral and data dependent, largely unchanged from March and January.

In a highly unusual (although perhaps not unexpected) move, Chairman Powell revealed during today's presser that he will remain on the Board of Governors when his term as chairman ends on 15-May, citing the Trump administration's "unprecedented" political and legal attacks as the reason for his decision. The last Fed chair that stayed on was Marriner Eccles in 1948, for whom the Fed building is named, and the renovation of which has been the source of much conflict between Trump and Powell.

Middle East headlines and energy prices continue to be the bigger driving forces in the market, leading to today's risk-off sentiment. The Iran war is in a fragile stalemate under an extended ceasefire, with the U.S. and Iran engaged in a tense dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to underpin oil prices.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$27.10 (-0.59%)
5-Day Change: -$195.49 (-4.12%)
YTD Range: $4,100.32 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,127.12 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +34.45

Gold fell to another round of four-week lows, weighed by rising pessimism about a speedy resolution to the war with Iran, which continues to underpin oil prices. The dollar is garnering the majority of the haven interest, amid inflation worries, putting additional pressure on the yellow metal.

 

Tuesday's push below $4,600 left gold vulnerable to the halfway back point of the March/April rally at $4,494.25. This level came within striking distance on Wednesday, and there is additional nearby support at $4,484.51 (31-Mar low). Penetration of these supports would shift focus to the next retracement level at $4,401.28.

The convincing move below the important 100- and 20-day moving averages erodes confidence in the longer-term recovery scenario. However, I still believe the market is more likely to continue consolidating within the broad range established earlier in the year than extend to the downside beyond the March low at $4,100.32.

I'd like to see the market regain the 100-day MA at $4761.79 to ease short-term pressure on the downside. Such a move would put the 17-Apr high at $4,886.16 back in play, returning focus to the $5,000 zone. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$2.744 (-3.63%)
5-Day Change: -$6.375 (-8.20%)
YTD Range: $61.036 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $31.701 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +99.60

Silver slid to a three-week low on Wednesday, weighed by persistent Middle East worries, higher oil prices, and a firm dollar. Today's Fed decision was largely a non-event as the hold was 100% priced in and the guidance was largely unchanged.



This week's convincing move below the 20-day moving average leaves the white metal vulnerable back to the $70 zone. More than half of the March/April rally has been retraced, adding to the technically bearish tilt. Secondary chart supports at $69.859, and $69.606 protect the $69.444 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the rally off the March low at $61.036.

A climb back above the 20-day MA at $75.789 would revive a more favorable tone within the range. Wednesday's high at $73.949 provides an intervening barrier. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.