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Gold consolidates amid conflicting pressures

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The rhetoric between Washington and Moscow seems to be intensifying. “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD,” wrote President Trump on TruthSocial.

“I only know of one REALLY BAD thing — WWIII. I hope Trump understands this,” responded Dmitry Medvedev,  Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia via X.

Nonetheless, risk appetite remains elevated on optimism that the U.S. and EU are moving toward a trade deal. On Tuesday, President Trump pushed back the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X over the weekend that the EU was “ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively.” That makes me wonder what they've been doing since Trump's tariff plans were first unveiled on April 2.

Trump has accused the EU of “slow walking.” His threat of 50% tariffs on Friday seems to have gotten things moving.

While tariff concerns have cooled recently, worries about America's fiscal situation are escalating as the "Big, Beautiful Bill" makes its way through Congress. The legislation does little to rein in debt in an environment of upward pressure on interest rates.

The minutes from the early-May FOMC meeting will be released later today. I don't expect any revelations. The Fed is on hold amid ongoing uncertainty about trade, growth, and inflation.

"All of this is occurring against a backdrop of an even more polarized political system, increased tension with foreign debt holders and less confidence in American security protections that promoted the dollar as the world’s safe haven," worried Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office.

Even Elon Musk has expressed his displeasure, saying that increasing the budget deficit “undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”

“I think a bill can be big or it can be beautiful. But I don't know if it can be both,” quipped Musk in a CBS interview that will air on Sunday.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 1.2% in the week ended 23-May, versus -5.1% in the previous week. A 7.1% drop in refis overshadowed a 2.7% rise in purchases. 30-year mortgage rates rose to an 18-week high of 6.98%.

Richmond Fed Index rebounded 4 points to -9 in May, from -13 in April. The index for future local business conditions rose notably from -37 to -6.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$12.27 (+0.37%)
5-Day Change: -$2.87 (-0.09%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +44.10

Gold remains soft amid reduced trade angst, heightened risk appetite, and a firm dollar. However, the downside is being limited by rising geopolitical tensions and concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation.



Price action remains confined to yesterday's range. The 20-day moving average at $3,289.06 bolsters the initial support zone.

Penetration of $3,289.06/87.50 would leave gold vulnerable to the $3.250.00/$3,246.26 zone, where minor chart support corresponds with the halfway back point of the recent rally. The rising 50-day moving average comes in at $3,222.96.

As long as gold remains above the 20-day, the short-term bias is to the upside. A breach of the 50% retracement level of this week's setback at $3,327.35 would bode well for the anticipated tests back above $3,400.

Silver is consolidating above $33, underpinned by trade optimism. However, upside progress has been limited by geopolitical risks, fiscal and growth worries, higher yields, and a firmer dollar.

 

Formidable resistances limit the upside. Last week's seven-week high at $33.690 stands in front of key highs at $34.543 and $34.853.

With the 20- and 50-day moving averages intact at $32.783/705, the downside is seen as limited as well. If this level gives way, the 100-day MA at $32.264 would be the initial attraction with potential for probes back below $32.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold weighed by latest retreat from tariff threats, lower yields, firmer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Days after threatening 50% tariffs on the EU, President Trump announced over the weekend that those tariffs are on hold until July 9 to allow for trade talks. Markets have swung once again from risk-off to risk-on.

However, diminished trade tensions are being offset to some degree by heightened geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, Russia conducted some of its largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine.

The attacks jeopardize ongoing ceasefire negotiations and prompted Trump to say that Putin had gone "absolutely crazy." The White House is said to be considering additional sanctions on Moscow.

German Chancellor Merz said there were "no longer" range restrictions on arms supplied to Ukraine. This suggests Germany will provide weapons to Ukraine with the ability to strike deep within Russia.

Meanwhile, Israel said that it plans to occupy 75% of Gaza within two months, pushing the Palestinian population into three small "safe" zones. The IDF's goal is to destroy Hamas's military wing and its remaining infrastructure.

Durable Orders fell 6.3% in April, inside expectations of -7.9%, versus a negative revised +7.6% in March (was +9.2%). It was the biggest drop since October, due in large part to a 17.1% plunge in transportation orders.  orders. Orders ex-trans rose 0.2%. Shipments +0.4%.

Case/Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.1% to 338.9 in March, versus a revised 336.2 in February. The annualized pace of appreciation slowed to 4.1% y/y from 4.5%.

FHFA Home Price Index slipped 0.1% in March. It was the first decline since January 2024. Annual appreciation decelerated to a 3.7% pace, versus 3.9% in February.

Consumer Confidence rebounded 12.3 points to 98.0 in May, well above expectations of 87.0, versus a revised 85.7 in April (was 86.0). It was the first gain in six months as tariff worries cooled.

Dallas Fed Index rebounded 20.5 points to -15.3 in May, versus -35.8 in April. It was the first gain in three months, although the index remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month. "Higher-than-usual price pressures continued in May, while wage growth remained slightly subdued," according to the report.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$48.28 (-1.44%)
5-Day Change: +$4.07 (+0.12%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +42.99

Gold starts the holiday-shortened week on defense, following President Trump's latest retreat from tariff threats. The yellow metal is being weighed by heightened risk appetite, lower yields, and a firmer dollar.



However, rising geopolitical tensions are providing some counterbalance to the dip in trade worries. Support at $3,288.09/87.50 (20-day MA, 22-May low) has contained the downside thus far, leaving the yellow metal in the upper half of last week's range.

Penetration of this level would leave gold vulnerable to further retracement to the $3.250.00/$3,246.26 zone, where minor chart support corresponds with the halfway back point of the recent rally. The rising 50-day moving average comes in at $3,217.85.

Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of 3.2 tonnes. It was the first weekly inflow in three with European buying of 6.7 tonnes offsetting modest outflows in North America and Asia.

The COT report for last week showed net speculative long positions rose 2.8k to 164.0k contracts, versus 161.2k in the previous week. It was the first uptick in spec long positioning in five weeks.

The magnitude of the gains last week returned considerable credence to the underlying uptrend. A close above the 20-day MA would keep the technical bias tilted toward the upside. A breach of the 50% retracement level of this week's setback at $3,327.35 would bode well for the anticipated tests back above $3,400.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.592 (-1.77%)
5-Day Change: -$0.170 (-0.51%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +9.42

Silver retreated below $33, weighed by weakness in gold and a firmer dollar. However, trades with a 32 handle were short-lived, with the trade encouraged by the reduction in trade tensions.



Support marked by the convergence of the 20- and 50-day moving averages at $32.756/718 was left untested. Today's intraday low at $32.828 now provides an intervening downside barrier.

Nonetheless, gains above $33 remain suspect as they have consistently attracted selling interest. Last week's seven-week high at $33.690 stands in front of key resistances at $34.543 and $34.853.

The latest COT report showed that net speculative long positions rose 2.2k to 50.0k contracts last week, versus 47.8k in the previous week. It was the first weekly rise in three and drove net spec long positioning to a seven-week high.

While the range is intact, slight emphasis remains on buying into dips in anticipation of trade deals eventually getting struck. This will moderate global growth risks and underpin demand for the white metal.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold poised for best weekly close in six on heightened trade, geopolitical, and fiscal worries

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump has recommended that tariffs on Europe be lifted to 50% after conceding via TruthSocial that trade talks with the EU "are going nowhere." These new tariffs could take effect on June 1.

"Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable," wrote the President.

Trump also threatened to impose tariffs of at least 25% on Apple if it doesn't start manufacturing iPhones in the United States. Apple CEO Tim Cook said on a recent earnings call that “the majority of iPhones sold in the US will have India as their country of origin.” Apple shares, along with the broader markets, are under pressure.

The escalation of trade tensions has swung sentiment back toward risk-off ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend. Treasuries are recovering some of their recent losses, and the dollar index has fallen to new lows for the week.

New Home Sales surged 10.9% to a 38-month high of 0.743M in April, above expectations of 0.698M, versus a downwardly revised 0.670M pace in March (was 0.724M). The median price rose 0.9% to $407,200. Home inventories retreated 0.6% to 504k, versus a 17-year high of 507k in March.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$33.84 (+1.03%)
5-Day Change: +$148.32 (+4.63%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +46.81

Gold has reached new two-week highs, and is on track for the best weekly close in six. Heightened trade, geopolitical, and fiscal concerns have revived the haven bid this week, with lower yields and a weaker dollar providing additional lift.



Trade data released this week revealed that Chinese gold imports surged to an 11-month high of 127.5MT in April. "The rise in imports is likely due to the People’s Bank of China allocating fresh quotas to some commercial banks in April, as the authority responds to strong demand from institutional and retail investors at the height of the trade war," according to Bloomberg.

Goldman Sachs suggested that arbitrage activity stemming from the premium offered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange versus the LBMA also contributed to the strong imports.

With more than 61.8% of the corrective decline now retraced, significant technical credence has been returned to the dominant uptrend. Tests back above $3,400 are now considered likely, with the next tier of Fibonacci resistance coming in at $3,416.97.

Penetration of the latter would bode well for a retest of the $3,500 zone. Beyond that, a Fibonacci projection highlights $3,596.20/$3,600.00.

Initial support is noted at $3,324.25/23.80. More substantial support is found just below $3,300, where the lows from the past three sessions correspond with the 20-day moving average.

Silver appears to be on track for its first weekly close above $33 in four weeks. While Thursday's seven-week high at $33.662 remains protected, this week's price action suggests more serious challenges of the upside in the week ahead seem increasingly likely.



The white metal is being bolstered by strength in gold and a weaker dollar, but heightened trade and growth worries do provide headwinds. The gold/silver ratio is back above 100 to end the week as silver continues to underperform.

The relative cheapness of silver is making it an increasingly appealing alternative to gold jewelry. A survey of jewelry retailers showed that 53% of respondents reported marginally increased sales in 2024 over the previous survey from 2022. 

The average store growth for silver jewelry sales was 20% in 2024, versus 14% in 2022. The gold/silver ratio was 76.09 at the end of 2022 and 90.77 at the end of 2024.

One might anticipate that a ratio above 100 this year will have a positive impact on silver jewelry demand. Jewelry accounts for roughly 17% of overall demand.

The $33.662 level is now the short-term barrier protecting more important highs at $34.543 and $34.853. Penetration of the latter is needed to truly reestablish the uptrend.

The $33.00/$32.955 level marks first support. Thursday's low at $32.694 corresponds with the 50- and 20-day moving averages and is the more important level to watch. Penetration would favor further consolidation back to the $32 zone.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold eases from two-week high on rising yields and firmer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump's tax-cut bill cleared the House by the narrowest of margins early this morning. The legislation now moves to the Senate, which has already signalled its intention to make changes.

“Now, it’s time for our friends in the United States Senate to get to work, and send this Bill to my desk AS SOON AS POSSIBLE,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial. However, changes in the Senate will require a return to the House, and another test of the slim GOP majority.

The debate over the "big beautiful bill" has stoked concerns that the plan does little to rein in deficit spending, despite White House claims to the contrary. The CBO says the bill adds $3.5 trillion to the national debt through 2033. And the legislation includes a provision to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.

This all comes days after Moody's cut the U.S. sovereign debt rating from AAA to Aa1. Amid lingering trade tensions, the market was already on edge. In addition, yesterday's $16 bln 20-year auction disappointed, and Treasury yields spiked. This reinforces worries that a "sell America" trade has some momentum.

The S&P Flash PMIs for the EU signalled contraction. While manufacturing improved, the reading remains below the 50 threshold. The services reading dropped to a 16-month low of 48.9. Additionally, the Bundesbank said it expects Europe's biggest economy to remain stagnant through Q2.

This weighed on the euro, which provided some support for the dollar. However, the dollar index remains lower on the week, and the magnitude of the downside retracement already seen returned a measure of credence to the five-month downtrend.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 2k to 227k in the week ended 17-May, below expectations of 230k, versus 229k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose 36k to 1,903k in the 10-May week, versus $1,867k in the previous week.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.25 in April from a revised 0.3 in March (was -0.3). "Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and three categories made negative contributions in April," according to the report.

S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May, above expectations of 50.1, versus 50.2 in April. The report signals a fifth straight month of expansion.

S&P Global Flash Services PMI rose to 52.3 in May, above expectations of 50.8, versus 50.8 in April.

Existing Home Sales slipped to a 4.00M pace in April on expectations of 4.10M, versus 4.02M in March.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$25.16 (-0.76%)
5-Day Change: +$68.87 (+2.13%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +44.38

Gold retreated modestly from a two-week high of $3,343.51 in Asia. The yellow metal is being weighed by higher yields and a bit of a bounce in the dollar.



Nearly 61.8% of the one-month correction has been retraced. A breach of this important Fibonacci level at $3.355.02 is needed to clear the way for renewed tests above $3,400 and another run at the $3,500 zone. The overseas high at $3,343.51 now provides an intervening barrier.

Rising concerns about U.S. debt, heightened geopolitical tensions, and a lack of progress on trade have stoked haven demand this week. While a softer dollar is helping the cause, the rising yield environment is seen as a headwind.

The 20-day moving average that was violated on the way up yesterday is now serving as initial support at $3,297.70.  Minor congestion around $3,250 protects the halfway back point of the recent rally, which comes in at $3,235.31.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.652 (-1.95%)
5-Day Change: +$0.351 (+1.08%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +9.98

Silver eked out a seven-week high just above $33.662 (25-Apr high) before retreating back below $33. The white metal was weighed by a setback in gold, a firmer dollar, and heightened EU growth risks.



Better-than-expected U.S. flash PMI readings for the U.S. offset some of the worries about Europe, and silver was able to subsequently regain the 33-handle. Nonetheless, I continue to view upticks above $33 as suspect as long as trade uncertainty prevails.

Resistance at $33.662/69 is reinforced, leaving key highs at $34.543 and $34.853 well protected. With the gold/silver still at historically high levels near 100, the upside for silver seems limited.

On the downside, let's call $33.00/$32.955 first support. The intraday low at $32.694 corresponds closely with the 50- and 20-day moving averages, making for a good downside barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold buoyed by heightened geopolitical tensions and weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: A CNN report suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, citing "multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence." This is a geopolitical risk that surfaces with some regularity, but it understandably leads to some risk aversion as it raises the stakes for a broader regional conflict in the Middle East.

Israel certainly always has an evolving plan to take out Iran's nuclear program, although it seems unlikely that they'd act without at least the tacit approval of the U.S. As long as talks between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, I think Israel is on hold.

That being said, Iran's top diplomat unequivocally stated his country will never stop enriching uranium, a key U.S. demand for a deal. Iran's supreme leader has expressed pessimism about a positive outcome. Maybe that's what's ramping up the probability of an Israeli strike.

Much of the political focus this week has been on getting President Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill" across the finish line in the House. A vote could come as soon as today. Speaker Johnson wants the legislation to clear the House by Memorial Day.

Markets are also keen to see further progress on trade. It's been more than a week since the UK trade deal and talks with China were announced. Without some good news on that front, the trade will start tilting back toward risk-off.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 5.1% in the 16-May week, versus +1.1% in the previous week. It was the first decline of the month. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to a 13-week high of 6.92%.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$21.01 (+0.64%)
5-Day Change: +$130.27 (+4.10%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +44.41

Gold is trading higher for a third straight session, underpinned by an uptick in geopolitical risks and continued weakness in the dollar. While last week's range remains intact, the haven bid could increase if more trade deals are not forthcoming.



The rise back above the 20-day MA and into the upper half of the range takes some pressure off the downside and lends credence to a scenario that suggests the corrective low is in place at $3,127.12. Penetrations of secondary resistances at $3,325.08 (12-May high) and $3,346.19 (9-May high) would further bolster confidence among the bulls, favoring renewed tests above $3,400.

More than 61.8% of the corrective rally in the dollar index has been retraced, returning focus to the downtrend. Renewed weakness in the dollar provides additional underpinning to gold.

Today's low at $3,289.50 is bolstered by the 20-day MA and marks initial support. Congestion around $3,250 provides an additional barrier ahead of the lows for the week at $3,206.90/$3,203.52.

Silver has moved more convincingly above $33, setting four-week highs, and bringing important resistance at $33.662 (25-Apr high) within striking distance. The white metal is garnering support from strength in gold and a weaker dollar. Fresh monetary stimulus from China this week provides an additional boost.



However, without the benefit of progress on the trade front, gains above $33 seem technically inspired and remain suspect. Even if new seven-week highs are reached above $33.662, formidable upside barriers loom at $34.543 and $34.853.

Initial support at $33.00/$32.995 now protects the 50- and 20-day moving averages at $32.766/739. Penetration of the latter would leave silver vulnerable to further consolidation back toward $32.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold is firmer within last week's range, as silver probes above $33 again

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: China has cut its benchmark lending rates in yet another effort to spur domestic demand. Weak retail sales and home price data indicate that growth risks persist. Further stimulus seems likely, even as trade tensions with the U.S. have moderated.

President Trump said yesterday's calls with Putin and Zelenskyy went well and that ceasefire talks would begin immediately. However, the combatants did not immediately provide corroboration, so the trade remains skeptical.

International pressure on Israel is increasing to end military operations in Gaza and allow aid shipments to resume. Qatar's PM conceded that ceasefire talks in Doha are "going nowhere." President Trump has reportedly expressed frustration with the lack of progress. 

There are no U.S. economic releases on the calendar today, just a lot of FedSpeak. I expect FedSpeak will continue to tilt toward 'no rush'. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on Monday that the central bank wants more clarity on the economy before it moves on rates.

Fed funds futures are implying 50 bps in cuts this year. The first 25 bps cut is not fully priced in until October.

Treasuries remain under pressure amid concerns about weaker foreign demand and rising supply after the latest downtick in America's sovereign debt rating. The dollar index has retraced nearly half of the four-week corrective rally that culminated with a five-week high near 102 last week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$4.87 (+0.15%)
5-Day Change: -$9.06 (-0.28%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +40.40

Gold is trading higher for a second session, underpinned by geopolitical risks and lingering trade worries. A softer dollar is providing some additional lift this week.



Today's upside extension pressured the 20-day moving average at $3,288.13. A close above the 20-day would bode well for a move back into the upper half of the one-month range.

A breach of the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51 would suggest potential for renewed tests above $3,400. Additional intervening barriers are noted at $3,325.08 (12-May high) and $3,346.19 (9-May high).

"In a world of heightened uncertainty, owning some gold makes sense," says Aaron Hussein, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. While Hussein cautions that "gold is not a panacea," JPM sees gold reaching $3,675 by year-end with potential beyond $4,000 by Q2'26.

Congestion around $3,250.00 marks initial support, protecting the lows for the week thus far at $3,206.90/$3,203.52. The 50-day moving average ($3,184.40 today) has gained significance as support over the past week. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.143 (+0.44%)
5-Day Change: -$0.347 (-1.05%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +8.05

Silver poked back above $33, buoyed by the latest round of Chinese stimulus, new highs for the week in gold, and an easier dollar. However, the white metal remains confined to last week's range with $33.197 (13-May high) as yet untested.



Silver remains essentially range-bound, and gains above $33 have attracted selling interest in recent weeks. The struggles above $33 leave key resistance levels above $34 increasingly well protected.

The high for May at $33.239 (6-May high) and the late-April high at $33.662 must be cleared to open up potential for a challenge of the high for the year at $34.543 and the 22-year high from October at $34.853.

Despite recent disappointing price action, I remain biased to the upside, largely due to the ongoing supply deficit in silver. In addition, the gold/silver ratio continues to suggest that the white metal is significantly undervalued.

Copper, on the other hand, is in surplus. The International Copper Study Group is forecasting a significant copper surplus of 289,000 MT this year and 209,000 MT in 2026. The ISSG sees increased mine supply and slowing demand as contributing factors.

"In view of uncertainty surrounding international trade policy that is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, usage growth rates have been revised down," according to the ICSG report.

A significant amount of silver supply is a byproduct of copper mining. If the oversupply of copper leads to a slowdown in copper production, the supply of silver may become even tighter.

The 50- and 20-day moving averages at $32.760/742 provide initial support. Today's low at $32.150 is bolstered by the rising 100-day MA at $32.049.

I think there's still opportunity to play the range in the short term, but I'm inclined to give greater weight to buying strategies in anticipation of an eventual upside breakout. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.