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Gold and silver easier ahead of Fed decision

Outside Market Developments: Markets are focused on the Fed’s policy decision due this afternoon, with a hold on rates widely expected, while tech stocks continue to draw strength from strong AI-related earnings and momentum out of Asia. Oil prices are climbing amid renewed Middle East tensions, Treasury yields remain elevated, and major results from Microsoft and Alphabet are set to land after the close.

Fed funds futures put the likelihood of an October pause at more than 90%, with an 84% chance of a 25 bps hike at the final FOMC meeting of 2026 in December. There will be no economic projections today, so the trade will try to read between the lines in the statement and hope the press can get Chairman Warsh to reveal some forward-guidance clues. I don't expect they'll be successful, so the higher-for-longer expectations will persist.

The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% already today, in line with expectations. This marks its first rate hike in nearly three years and aims to curb the risk of elevated energy prices spreading more broadly into inflation, which is now projected to average around 3% through much of 2027 before returning near the 2% target by mid-2028.

The ECB is scheduled to announce policy tomorrow, and the BoJ is up on Friday. Both are expected to deliver hawkish pauses that leave the door open for further tightening as soon as December.

Solidifying that expectation, Japan’s nationwide core CPI rose 2.1% y/y in September, while the core-core measure excluding fresh food and energy accelerated to 2.4%. The Bank of Japan’s preferred underlying gauge, which further strips out special factors such as energy subsidies, jumped more sharply to 3.2%, highlighting stronger persistent price pressures.

Similarly, Euro area annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, its highest level since September 2023 and up from 3.2% in August. The rise was driven primarily by a sharp jump in energy prices to 18.9%, while core inflation edged higher to 2.5%.

Israel’s parliamentary elections have produced no clear winner, with partial results and exit polls showing both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and rival Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition alliance falling short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. Voter turnout hit a two-decade high of 77.7%, and prolonged coalition negotiations are now expected as both sides claim a mandate. At the same time, Arab parties could win as many as 20 seats and emerge as potential kingmakers.

Oil prices are firmer today, recovering from recent mild weakness. Persistent Middle East supply risks and geopolitical tensions continue to support elevated levels, keeping a significant risk premium embedded in the market.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$15.38 (-0.38%)
5-Day Change: -$85.10 (-2.05%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,915.82 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -4.97

Gold is easier in advance of today's Fed decision. While steady policy is widely expected today, persistent worries about energy-led inflation are keeping yields and the dollar elevated near their recent highs, and providing a headwind for the yellow metal.



Markets in general remain on edge in the wake of last week's risk-off/deleveraging event. Marex was convinced that  "Gold tested $4,000 on long liquidation, not fresh shorts." However, the proximity to the low for the year at $3,945.52 (30-Jun) is a likely attraction for the bear camp as there are likely some longer-term stops down there. There's also considerable curiosity about where, exactly, the much-touted central bank bid is.

Any hint of a more hawkish tone from the Fed – or any of the other central banks for that matter – could embolden the bears. The fact that silver has already set new lows for the year bolsters their case.

New lows for the year would shift focus to the rising 100-week moving average at $3,870.82. If that level were to give way as well, a 50% retracement of the dramatic rally from the post-COVID low at $1,616.14 would have to be considered, highlighting $3,605.58. That still strikes me as a low probability at this point because I think the official sector bid lies somewhere ahead of that level.

Initial resistance is marked by Friday's high at $4,033.01. Above that, the previous lows at $4,067.07/$4,073.90 provide a more formidable barrier. The falling 20-day MA at $4,131.12 really needs to be regained on a close basis to truly ease pressure on the downside.

Today's Asian high of $4,070.43 reinforced resistance marked by the previous lows at $4,067.07/$4,073.90. The falling 20-day MA at $4,119.01 must be cleared on a close basis to relieve pressure on the downside. However, a sustained push above $4,200 is needed to revive confidence in the scenario that suggests the low for the year was set at the end of June. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.676 (-1.24%)
5-Day Change: -$3.930 (-6.78%)
YTD Range: $52.678 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $46.873 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -7.22

Silver set a new low for the year on Tuesday, but managed a higher close, resulting in a key reversal. However, upside follow-through is needed to confirm the bullish technical pattern. The white metal is lower today, awaiting the Fed decision.

 

The rising 100-week moving average comes in at $53.247, bolstering the recent lows. Should this area give way, a downside extension to the $50.337 Fibonacci level would have to be considered.

On the upside, Friday's high at $54.725 and the July low at $54.778 are still the short-term levels to watch. Penetration would shift focus to the mid-October lows at $55.409/498. Above that,  the declining 20-day moving average at $57.835 and last week's high at $58.571 would attract.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver stabilize after last week's sharp sell-off

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets are starting the week on a cautious but slightly firmer note, with risk assets edging cautiously higher after tumultuous trading last week. Risk-off was triggered on Thursday amid rising inflation concerns, higher rate expectations, recurring AI/tech worries, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that pushed oil prices sharply higher.

Tech and AI-related names led equities lower after Meta sparked renewed concerns about heavy AI capital spending, financing needs, and potential returns on investment. While Meta reported better-than-expected Q3 results, elevated capex drove free cash flow to -$2.12 billion — the first negative print since its 2012 IPO. The company also raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending guidance to $135-145 billion, implying the cash-flow pressure could continue in the near term.

Focus this week is squarely on the two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday, with the rate decision and statement due at 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30pm. The trade overwhelmingly expects a hold this week (near 90% probability). With no new economic projections scheduled, markets will try to get a better read on the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Fed funds futures currently put that probability at 81.6%.

The ECB and BoJ will also announce policy this week. Each is is expected to deliver a hawkish pause that leaves the door open for further tightening as soon as December, pending more data on inflation and growth.

Once the monetary policy decisions are behind us, market attention will pivot quickly toward the U.S. midterm elections on 3-Nov, which will determine control of Congress and influence fiscal and regulatory outlooks for the second half of President Trump's final term. The October employment report, due Friday, 6-Nov, will provide a key update on labor-market strength and feed into December Fed expectations. Other notable releases in the intervening period include the advance Q3 GDP estimate and September PCE inflation data on 29-Oct.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$19.30 (+0.48%)
5-Day Change: -$115.17 (-2.78%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -5.96

Gold starts the week with a modest bid, though activity remains confined to Friday’s range. The yellow metal fell more than 4% last week — its biggest weekly decline since June — marking a second consecutive lower weekly close and the seventh drop in the past nine weeks.

Deleveraging added to the pressure as the tech and AI stock sell-off triggered margin calls, prompting leveraged investors to liquidate assets such as gold to raise cash. Risk-aversion positioning primarily favored Treasuries, but the retreat in yields did little to stop the slide in gold. "Gold tested $4,000 on long liquidation, not fresh shorts," according to Marex.

Friday's low at $3,976.53 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of this year's low at $3,945.52 (30-Jun), but the downside remains vulnerable. The market is going to be tempted to look for stops below the latter and find that official- sector bid. Whether they are inclined to do that before the Fed decision remains to be seen.

New lows for the year would shift focus to the rising 100-week moving average at $3,870.59. If that level were to give way as well, a 50% retracement of the dramatic rally from the post-COVID low at $1,616.14 would have to be considered, highlighting $3,605.58. However, that strikes me as a low probability at this point.

Initial resistance is marked by Friday's high at $4,033.01. Above that, the previous lows at $4,067.07/$4,073.90 provide a more formidable barrier. The falling 20-day MA at $4,131.12 really needs to be regained on a close basis to truly ease pressure on the downside.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.044 (+0.08%)
5-Day Change: -$2.873 (-5.03%)
YTD Range: $53.046 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -6.77

Silver set a new low for the year on Friday and notched a second consecutive lower weekly close, weighed primarily by broad cross-asset deleveraging, as the tech-led market sell-off triggered margin calls. Safe-haven flows favored U.S. Treasuries rather than bullion, adding to the downward pressure.

The rising 100-week moving average comes in at $53.251 today, and this technical indicator has generally contained the downside thus far. Nonetheless, the new lows for the year leave the downside vulnerable to further tests. A convincing breach of the 100-week MA would favor a downside extension to the $50.337 Fibonacci level.

On the upside, Friday's high at 54.725 stands in front of more formidable resistances marked by the July low at $54.778 and the mid-October lows at $55.409/498. Above the latter, last week's high at $58.571 and the falling 20-day MA above $60 look pretty well protected at this point.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate within last week's ranges

Outside Market Developments: Global macro headwinds and shifting risk appetite are colliding this week, as sticky inflation pressures clash with a broader tech sector selloff and cooling economic data. While the Fed is widely expected to pause at next week's policy meeting, investors are navigating a retreating dollar and a sluggish housing market, keeping risk sentiment on edge.

U.S. stocks are trading mixed as investors balance broadly favorable corporate earnings against a backdrop of macro caution. Wall Street is focused on next week's FOMC meeting and crucial PCE inflation, amid expectations that persistent price pressures warrant at least one more rate hike before year-end.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached a near three-year high of 7.5% in the week ended 9-Oct. While the key rate dipped to  7.41% last week, high financing costs will continue to weigh on U.S. housing data.

Housing starts fell 5.2% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221M units, the second-lowest pace since the pandemic. Meanwhile, forward-looking building permits dropped to a 3.5-year low of 1.4M. Both single-family and multi-family construction pulled back as persistent affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and cautious builder sentiment weighed heavily on the sector.

Moscow has reportedly agreed in principle to resume trilateral negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. The talks are slated to begin after the midterms and are expected to focus heavily on establishing post-conflict security frameworks and resolving long-term stability terms.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that indirect negotiations with the U.S. continue through mediators including Pakistan and Qatar. Tehran has proffered a seven-day ceasefire proposal, which would involve ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is seeking additional conditions, and no agreement has been reached, leaving the strait restricted and oil prices elevated. However, both sides say that diplomatic channels are open and hope for a path to de-escalation springs eternal.

Overall oil exports from the Persian Gulf (excluding Iran) have recently surpassed pre-war levels, averaging more than 24 million barrels per day in the week through October 18, according to Kpler data, thanks to alternative pipelines, U.S.-protected shipping corridors, and ship-to-ship transfers. Flows specifically through the Strait of Hormuz remain at about 82% of pre-war volumes. However, crude prices have not moderated due to the fragility of these routes, increased shipping costs, and sky-high maritime insurance costs.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.81 (+0.04%)
5-Day Change: +$26.87 (+0.65%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -4.38

Gold slipped to a new low for the week in overseas trading before recovering somewhat with help from a defensive dollar. However, both yields and the greenback remain elevated – just off recent highs – capping the yellow metal. Some hope for de-escalation in both Iran and Ukraine may also be sapping haven interest.

 

There is certainly some doubt as to whether gold is attempting to base and confirm the July low, or merely consolidating in preparation for a resumption of the downtrend off the record high that was set early this year. I'm still cautiously biased toward the former amid expectations that robust central bank reserve diversification, global deldollarization, and persistent geopolitical safe-haven demand will continue.

While the official sector provides a massive structural floor through multi-year acquisition programs, physical retail demand has also seen steady support from private investors seeking protection against sticky inflation, currency debasement, and broader macro volatility. Global retail demand for gold bars and coins remained exceptionally resilient through the first half of the year, totaling over 780 tonnes (the strongest first-half in more than a decade) despite the near-record-high price environment.

Major Wall Street banks and commodities analysts maintain a generally bullish outlook for gold, forecasting continued upside through year-end and into 2027. J.P. Morgan targets a push toward$6,000, Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 to $5,400+, Morgan Stanley and TD Securities expect spot prices to comfortably surpass $5,000 in 2027, CIBC forecasts a recovery to $5,200, and Wells Fargo sees potential to $4,900 to $5,100 by late-2026 and targets $5,400/$5,600 in 2027.

Is the bull camp too crowded right now? At this point, I'd be happy to see a sustained move above $4,200 and a close above the 100-day m oving average at $4,231.62. An eventual push above $4,400 would offer additional encouragement and suggest potential back to the August high at $4,696.31.

On the downside, today's intraday low at $4,107.00 reinforces the significance of the $4,100.39/$4,100.00 support level. Below the latter, the potential double bottom at $4,073.90/$4,067.07 would be back in play. If that chart pattern is negated, it would open up the $4,000 zone to a test, and the $3,945.52 low from June would be vulnerable.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.463 (-0.80%)
5-Day Change: +$1.819 (+3.27%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +0.93

Silver has adopted a consolidative tone at the low end of last week's range, as yields near multi-decade highs, firm crude and expectations for another rate hike this year continue to weigh. The recent modest pullback in the dollar is perhaps providing some underpinning, but the white metal continues to look vulnerable.



Recent price activity looks like a bear flag to me, suggesting further attacks on the downside are likely. A breach of Tuesday's low at $56.393 would clear the way for a retest of last week's low at $55.409. Below the latter, attention would return to the summer low at $54.778.

Despite the short-term bearish bias, silver is underpinned by a powerful combination of multi-year structural supply deficits and surging industrial demand. On the supply side, persistent mining constraints and stagnant output have struggled to keep pace with consumption. Simultaneously, industrial demand continues to accelerate, driven heavily by AI infrastructure buildout, solar panel manufacturing, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics, alongside steady retail investment and safe-haven demand that mirror gold's broader bull market.

A rebound above the $60 level is needed to ease pressure on the downside somewhat and shift focus to the highs for October just above $62. The declining 100-day MA will fortify the $62 zone ahead of the weekend.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver start the week mixed within recent ranges

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to preview any interest-rate decisions during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok last week. He reiterated that the Fed is “no longer in the business” of offering forward guidance, and praised the synchronous tightening by central banks worldwide that left “no free riders.”

Warsh expressed optimism about U.S. and global economic resilience amid energy shocks and geopolitical tensions. He also highlighted an AI-driven investment surge that is creating near-term inflationary demand pressures, noting that the path to a future state of higher productivity and greater wealth "is likely to be a very bumpy one.”

Despite recent hot inflation readings, FedSpeak heading into the blackout period conveyed little hawkish urgency for an immediate rate hike in October, with several top voices emphasizing patience and the need to carefully assess incoming data. While most still anticipated further tightening later in the year, the prevailing message was that there was no rush to act at the upcoming meeting.

Fed funds futures reflect a 17.3% probability of an October rate hike, fairly consistent over the past week but down significantly from 57.6% a month ago. The trade continues to favor a hike in December, although currently only 21 bps of tightening is priced in.

President Trump waived additional sanctions and tariffs on Russia that were part of the recently passed Graham Act, earning him bipartisan Congressional outrage. Along with the diesel supply deal he struck with Moscow two weeks ago, there are expectations of increased Russian fuel exports. However, oil prices remain elevated as the war in the Middle East threatens to broaden. 

Iran reported another oil tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile attack on a Yemeni government military camp that killed over 50 soldiers, alongside strikes on Saudi targets. Egypt has announced “all possible forms of support” for Saudi Arabia’s security, including the possible deployment of its military.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$4.20 (+0.10%)
5-Day Change: -$5.34 (-0.13%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -3.29

Gold starts the week back under pressure after gains last week stalled ahead of $4,200, leading to a lower weekly close. Stubbornly high oil, yields, and dollar continue to pose headwinds for the yellow metal.



Key short-term resistance is clearly defined by the recent highs at $4,217.02/$4,225.02.  This level is now protected by the 20-day moving average at $4,182.00, today's high at $4189.93, and Friday's high at $4,198.33.

Fresh two-week highs above $4,225.02 are needed to confirm the potential bottom and provide some encouragement for the bull camp. The declining 100-day MA bolsters the significance of this resistance zone.

Investors seem cautiously interested on dips ahead of the 7-Oct low. Global ETFs saw net inflows of 13.7 tonnes last week, with North American buyers leading the way with 7.3 tonnes. It was the third straight weekly inflow, and the largest since the week ended 18-Sep.

The halfway-back point of last week's rebound comes in at $4,136.11 and has contained the downside thus far today. Penetration would favor renewed tests of the $4,100 zone.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.537 (+0.94%)
5-Day Change: -$2.696 (-4.47%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +1.29

Silver is trading higher, but remains confined to Friday's range. Hot inflation readings and expectations for another Fed rate hike this year are keeping yields and the dollar elevated, dampening sentiment in the bull camp.

 

All the important moving averages have now rotated lower, adding technical weight to the market. While last week's losses stalled shy of the July low, the downside continues to appear vulnerable to further tests. Friday's low at $56.902 marks initial support ahead of last week's low at $55.409. Below the latter, a true test of $54.778 becomes likely. 

Initial resistance is marked by Friday's high at $57.973. Above that, I'm watching $59.367 (14-Oct high) and $60. However, it would take a close above the 20-day MA at $60.630 to set up a further retracement toward recent highs above $62.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover on Friday, but elevated yields and a strong dollar remain headwinds

Outside Market Developments: Fed Chairman Warsh participated in a fireside chat at the IMF/World Bank meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, last night. The trade was hoping for some reaction to this week's hot inflation data and perhaps a hint of forward guidance.

True to form, Warsh continues to play his cards close to the vest. He mentioned inflation only in general terms as a “common challenge” globally, adding that he does not “pre-judge” before FOMC meetings.

From his confirmation hearing onward, Warsh has maintained that he does “not believe in forward guidance” and does not think the Fed “should be signaling future decisions in advance.” He has yet to rein in the rest of the FOMC members, however, who have tilted hawkish in recent weeks.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the CPI and PPI data "discouraging" on Thursday. He still holds “some optimism” that the inflation drivers may be temporary (tariffs, Middle East conflicts/supply disruptions) and could fade quickly. However, he has expressed some concerns recently that inflation is shifting from temporary supply shocks to more persistent demand-driven overheating that is partly linked to AI investment. The blackout period for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting begins tonight at midnight Eastern Time.

While annualized CPI reached multi-month highs, and PPI surged to multi-year highs, most of the inflationary pressure was attributable to energy. Perhaps reflecting some hope that energy pressures will soon moderate, Fed rate-hike expectations moderated late in the week.

Fed funds futures now put the odds of an October rate hike at 12.7%, versus  27.7% on Thursday. The implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 4.07%, implying just 19.5 bps of tightening.

It’s worth remembering that the current U.S. fiscal situation poses a meaningful constraint on further Fed tightening. Debt-servicing costs for FY 2026 (ended 30) exceeded $1 trillion, making net interest a larger budget item than both defense and Medicare – and second only to Social Security. A 25 bp rate hike would add roughly $18 billion to annual interest costs. Under current law, the CBO projects interest payments on the debt will continue rising, reaching about $2.1 trillion by 2036.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels launched missile strikes on Yemen’s presidential palace in Aden on Thursday, killing several people and wounding others, while Saudi Arabia intercepted additional missiles and drones targeting its territory. In an interview, President Trump ruled out using ground troops against Iran but left open the possibility of further conventional strikes, as tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure. 

The Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" that President Trump announced last weekend has collapsed...if it ever really existed. Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries, claiming Moscow never refrained from hitting Ukrainian power and gas facilities. Brent crude retested the September high above $111.

Next week, markets will primarily focus on a heavy slate of major corporate earnings, led by high-profile reports from Netflix (Tuesday), Tesla and Meta (Wednesday), and Procter & Gamble (Thursday), which will offer fresh insights into consumer spending, tech/AI demand, and broader economic resilience. Oil prices will remain a key interest. Attention will also turn to U.S. housing data (starts and permits on Tuesday), and UofM consumer sentiment (Friday). This week's hot inflation readings will remain a significant backdrop, and the trade will continue to refine Fed policy expectations ahead of the October FOMC meeting.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$3.48 (+0.08%)
5-Day Change: -$19.77 (-0.47%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -5.25

Gold rebounded to pressure $4,200 in early U.S. trading on Friday, buoyed by softer yields and a pullback in the dollar. A close above $4,194.29 today would confirm a second straight higher weekly close, with a potential double bottom already providing some technical encouragement for the bull camp.



Last week's low at $4,067.07 successfully contained tests of the downside earlier in the week, leading to that as yet confirmed double bottom. Confirmation would occur on a breach of resistance at $4,217.02 (12-Oct high). This level is bolstered by the 2-Oct high at $4,225.02, and the declining 100-day moving average will move into this zone next week as well.

Given the recent rejections above $4,200, there are likely significant buy stops above those highs that the bulls will be tempted to run if they are given the opportunity. Such a move would shift focus to the $4,307.44 Fibonacci level and the 50-day MA at $4,331.32. Above the latter, the more important 50% retracement level of the Aug/Oct decline at $4,381.69 would attract.

Hot inflation readings with a tempering of hawkish Fed expectations may also be allowing the yellow metal to reassert itself as the classic hedge against rising prices. Safe-haven demand provides additional underpinning amid persistent fiscal and geopolitical risks.

On the downside, today's Asian low at $4,147.59 and Thursday's low at $4,100.39 protect the recent lows at $4,073.90/$4,067.07. With the fortification of the downside, I'm feeling a little better about my belief that the low is in at $3,945.52 (30-Jun), but the relative weakness in silver is still troubling.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.282 (+0.49%)
5-Day Change: -$3.034 (-4.99%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -2.95

Silver has lost about 6% this week and is poised for its sixth weekly loss out of the last eight. While the white metal is higher today on position squaring, the drop to a 13-week low on Wednesday suggests the summer low at $54.778 is vulnerable to a more serious challenge.



High yields and a strong dollar continue to provide a significant headwind. There's also growing concern about waning industrial demand. Part of that is attributable to rising financing costs that threaten to slow AI infrastructure expansion. 

Solar/photovoltaic sector demand has also cooled as the peak season wound down. Umicore noted that HSBC forecasts a decline in industrial demand from 642 Moz in 2026 to 618 Moz in 2027, due in part to cost-cutting and substitution in the solar sector.

A convincing move above $60 is needed to ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but the key 20-, 100- and 50-day moving averages are the more important levels to be watching. A breach above the 50-day at $63.974 would shift focus to the September highs above $68.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver weighed by hot CPI print

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September, in line with expectations, versus +0.4% in August. The annualized rate of consumer inflation jumped to 3.7% y/y, above the 3.6% consensus and up from 3.4% in August. Core came in at +0.3% on expectations of +0.2%; 2.6% y/y on expectations of 2.5%, versus 2.4% in August.

Stocks turned lower, Treasury yields jumped, and the dollar strengthened as traders raised bets on further Fed rate hikes.
Odds of an October rate hike rebounded to 50% from 22.1% yesterday and 17.7% a week ago, though many still view a December move as more likely.



FedSpeak continues to tilt hawkish. NY Fed President John Williams believes another rate increase this year may be appropriate. “I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike... I don’t think at this time I have any reason to believe that we would need to do more” after that," he said. 

Market focus now turns to tomorrow's PPI data, where analysts are expecting inflation to moderate slightly. Consensus estimates are (headline) 5.3%, and (core) 4.4%. September retail sales data will also be released tomorrow, and the pace of consumption is expected to slow.

Iranian officials have acknowledged deploying new tactics to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to keep oil prices elevated. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have also escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia, striking an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran and launching missiles toward Riyadh that were intercepted. Oil prices remain elevated amid heightened supply-risk concerns, which continue to stoke inflation and Fed tightening expectations.

Bank of America faces more than $1.21 bln in U.S. regulatory penalties, primarily a $1.2 bln fine from FinCEN for major anti-money laundering shortcomings. The bank failed to timely report over $5 bln in suspicious transactions, including activity linked to Chinese money-laundering networks. The bank was also hit with a record $750M OCC penalty plus a smaller OFAC sanctions settlement.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$20.26 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: +$34.80 (+0.85%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -6.18

Gold sold off in reaction to this morning's hotter-than-expected inflation readings, which sparked a rebound in Fed-tightening expectations and lifted yields and the dollar. So far, last week's low at $4,067.07 has contained the downside, but the surge in the dollar and sharp losses in silver suggest the downside is vulnerable.



If the yellow metal does take out that low, focus will shift to the August low at $4,022.62 with potential to the $4,000 zone. My preferred scenario has been that the low for the year at $3,945.52 will hold, but my confidence has been shaken.

Intraday resistance at $4,105.77/$4,107.08 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of the overseas high at $4,170.19. The more important level on the upside is defined by the recent highs at $4,217.02/$4,225.02, and bolstered by the falling 20-day MA at $4,210.15.

At last week’s LBMA Conference in Sorrento, Italy, delegates predicted gold would average around $5,013 in 12 months, more than 20% above current levels. The bullish outlook stems from structural drivers such as rising global government debt concerns, ongoing geopolitical fragmentation that elevates gold’s role as a neutral reserve asset, and continued strong central-bank buying. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel emphasized that gold still accounts for a growing share of reserves and remains a key diversifier that cannot default or be easily restricted.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.709 (-1.20%)
5-Day Change: -$1.059 (-1.77%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: -0.72

Silver plunged to three-month lows following this morning's CPI report, as yields pressured recent multi-decade highs and the dollar index reached 18-month highs. The white metal has been significantly more volatile than gold amid broader risk-off sentiment. The gold/silver ratio is trading above 73 for the first time since December.



With last week's low at $58.516 and the $58.272 Fibonacci level negated, the late-July lows at $56.681/$56.583 are in play. Below the latter, the low for the year at $54.778 (17-Jul) defines key support.

Minor intraday resistance at $56.476 stands in front of the early U.S. high at $57.778. Above that, the $60 zone is likely to keep Monday's high at $61.451 at bay.  The falling 20-day MA (currently $61.920) should correspond closely with the high for the week over the next session or two. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver retrace some of Friday's gains in thin holiday trade

Outside Market Developments: Markets are set for a relatively quiet session as U.S. bond markets are closed for Columbus Day, leaving equity trading with lighter volume and limited catalysts. Investors are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of a pivotal week of major bank earnings and key inflation data, while monitoring oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical developments.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham says that a recent security incident at the U.S.-run RAF Fairford air base in England was "almost certainly" directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Although seven men have been arrested in connection with the investigation, no formal charges have been filed yet, and all suspects have been released on bail. In response to the threats, the U.S. recently pulled its bombers from the base, and the British government has formally summoned the Iranian ambassador over the matter.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen struck Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend. At least 12 were killed, including one American, and hundreds were injured. The attacks against Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the region risk broadening the war.

President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire,” under which both sides would halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure. The announcement came alongside a reported deal with President Putin under which Russia would supply large volumes of diesel to global markets.

News of the Trump-Putin diesel deal has been met with widespread skepticism and bipartisan backlash, as Ukraine, European allies, and many U.S. lawmakers view it as sanctions relief that rewards Russia while doing little to lower global fuel prices meaningfully. Brent crude remains elevated near three-week highs above $109.

This week's U.S. economic calendar is dominated by crucial inflation and consumer spending updates. The spotlight is on the September CPI, alongside PPI and Retail Sales, which will provide key insights into consumer demand and price pressures. Markets will also parse updates on industrial production, weekly jobless claims, and a heavy slate of FedSpeak to gauge the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes this year.

Fed funds futures currently imply 21 bps of tightening by year-end, and the timing favors December over October. U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near multi-year highs, underpinning the dollar index near 17-month highs.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$17.29 (-0.41%)
5-Day Change: +$30.25 (+0.73%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -5.38

Gold continues to struggle on upticks above $4,200 as yield and dollar strength offset heightened geopolitical tensions. The inability to sustain upticks after reaching a nine-week low last week suggests ongoing vulnerability.



Nearby resistance at $4,218.99/$4,225.02 has been fortified by today's overseas high and the 20-day moving average falling into the area. A close above secondary resistance marked by the 100-day MA at $4,255.62 is needed to lend credence to a bottoming scenario.

Global ETFs saw inflows of 4.5 tonnes last week. ETFs saw just one week of net outflows out of the last 14, suggesting that while investor interest has cooled, it remains resilient.



Central bank gold buying remained strong in August, led by significant purchases from China's central bank, Poland, and Uzbekistan. Official sector buying continues to provide a steady source of underlying demand that should help keep the June low at $3,945.52 at bay.

On the downside, Friday's low at $4,131.14 protects last week's low at $4,067.07. Penetration of the latter would suggest potential to the $4,000 zone before renewed buying interest emerges.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.171 (-0.28%)
5-Day Change: -$0.381 (-0.62%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +3.92

Silver is retracing some of Friday's bounce as yield and dollar strength continue to pose headwinds. Market focus this week will remain on oil prices and key U.S. inflation data.



Higher energy and borrowing costs could dampen the pace of AI infrastructure expansion. Silver is "more exposed than gold to the growth implications of high energy costs, leaving it vulnerable if elevated oil prices and borrowing costs begin to weigh more heavily on industrial activity," according to Heraeus.

A retreat back below $60 would leave $59.183 (9-Oct low) and $58.516 (8-Oct low) vulnerable to retests. Below the latter, the $58.272 Fibonacci level provides an additional barrier ahead of congestion around $58, the $57.115/085 level, and the key cycle low from July at $54.778.

Last week's high at $62.021 will correspond closely with the falling 20-day moving average later this week, defining important short-term resistance. This area must be cleared to ease pressure on the downside and shift focus to the $64 area where the 100- and 50-day MAs come into play.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver recover on profit-taking ahead of the weekend

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: This week, markets were choppy and indecisive amid elevated Treasury yields (the 10-year briefly hitting multi-decade highs near 5.36%), volatile oil prices driven by Middle East tensions and Iran-related supply risks, and shifting Fed rate-hike expectations. U.S. stocks saw mixed performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching or approaching record highs early on tech/AI strength before pulling back later in the week amid semiconductor weakness and inflation concerns tied to higher energy costs.

Iran ramped up attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz this week, with the highest weekly number of strikes on oil, LNG, and other tankers since the war began. These escalations drove Brent crude higher, pushing it briefly above $108 a barrel amid fears of tighter supply.

President Trump pledged that the U.S. will not launch attacks on Iran before the November midterm elections, citing ongoing “productive discussions” with Tehran aimed at ending the conflict. He added that Iran remains in poor economic and military condition while affirming that the U.S. blockade would stay in place. Trump maintained that record volumes of oil were moving through the strait, but that doesn't seem to be supported by the facts.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, marking a five-month low and below expectations of 47.6. The drop was driven by heightened frustration over the cost of living, with the current economic conditions subindex plunging to an all-time low of 44.7 and year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.7%.

Next week, markets will focus on the September CPI and PPI report due Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These inflation readings will provide further clarity on Fed policy expectations for the remainder of the year amid ongoing concerns over elevated yields and sticky prices. Attention will also center on the kickoff of third-quarter earnings season, with major banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting on Tuesday, alongside other data, including retail sales, later in the week.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$45.78 (+1.11%)
5-Day Change: +$42.13 (+1.02%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -1.28

Gold has rebounded from Wednesday's nine-week low to probe back above $4,200. The yellow metal appears poised for a higher weekly close, buoyed by profit-taking ahead of the weekend, although firm yields and a strong dollar continue to pose headwinds.

 

Last Friday's high at $4,225.02 remains intact thus far, keeping the declining 20- and 100-day moving averages at bay for now. A short-term close above the still rising 50-day MA at $4,335.05 is needed to re-embolden the bull camp and shift attention to the halfway-back point of the Aug-Oct decline at $4,381.69 and the 18-Sep high at $4,399.30.

Fox News notes that rapid expansion of AI is fueling a new wave of demand for gold, a metal essential in advanced semiconductors, high-performance servers, and data center infrastructure. Despite record-high gold prices early this year, tech companies are continuing to rely on the metal for its superior conductivity, reliability, and corrosion resistance rather than switching to cheaper alternatives. Because electronics manufacturing requires relatively small amounts of gold compared to the value of high-end AI components, the tech sector is largely price-insensitive, creating a sustained, non-traditional demand driver that reinforces a long-term bullish outlook for the precious metal alongside the ongoing AI boom.

As long as nearby resistances remain intact, further attacks on the downside can not be ruled out. A breach of today's Asian low at $4,131.14 would leave the lows from earlier in the week at $4,103.96 and $4,067.07 vulnerable to retests. As noted earlier in the week, a drop to the August low at $4,022.62 and perhaps as low as $4,000 may be needed to attract more sustained buying interest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.039 (+1.76%)
5-Day Change: +$0.196 (+0.32%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +6.24

Silver is recovering from Thursday's nine-week low, despite persistently high yields and a strong dollar. A close above $60.374 is needed to confirm a higher weekly close. Today's gains appear to be associated with position squaring ahead of the weekend and next week's key inflation data.



A rebound above the 20-, 50-, 100-day moving average complex is still needed to take pressure off the downside. Chart resistance at $62.021/079 provides a solid intervening barrier.

Clearance of the MAs is needed to shift focus to the late-September highs at $67.513/529 and the more important 9-Sep high at $68.314. An eventual breach of the latter is the key to unlock the $70 zone. Ultimately, $80 must be regained to revive confidence in the long-term uptrend.

Silver’s underlying fundamentals remain broadly favorable due to a projected sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of roughly 46-67 Moz in 2026, driven by inelastic mine production – where about 70% of output is a byproduct of mining other metals and thus slow to respond to higher prices. Persistent industrial demand from electronics, electric vehicles, AI data centers, and grid infrastructure continues to provide structural support, even as solar thrifting moderates one key end-use.

On the downside, Thursday's nine-week low at $58.516 now protects the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the late-July lows are noted at $56.681/583.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver fall to nine-week lows amid persistent yield and dollar strength

Outside Market Developments: Markets are in a risk-off mode today with bond yields and the dollar back on the bid, oil prices higher amid renewed Middle East tensions, and caution ahead of today's release of the September FOMC minutes. Stocks (especially growth/tech names) are pulling back from recent record highs.

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had nearly returned to pre-war levels in recent weeks, with crude exports reaching a seven-day average of about 13.5 million barrels per day – matching the pre-conflict baseline – and overall regional Middle East crude flows even exceeding pre-war averages on multiple days in late September. However, a recent surge in Iranian attacks on vessels in and around the strait has heightened shipping risks and insurance costs, preventing a full normalization of supply security and helping keep global oil prices elevated above $100 per barrel.

Today’s FOMC minutes from the September meeting are likely to reveal a broader internal debate, despite the unanimous 25 bps suggested, highlighting divergent views among officials on the need for further tightening versus a more patient approach. They are expected to underscore persistent inflation risks that supported the median projection for one additional hike in 2026, while also reflecting discussions of solid economic growth and balanced labor-market risks at the time. Evidence of some degree of reluctance among the dovish-tilted members could spark a rally in Fed funds futures.

Global bond yields have climbed sharply in recent sessions, with the U.S. 10-year note yield rising to around 5.33-5.35% and the 30-year bond yield hitting approximately 5.70-5.73%, both marking their highest levels since 2002. The sell-off has been broad-based, with U.K. 30-year gilt yields surging to a 28-year high near 6.03% and European yields, particularly in France and Italy, also advancing amid persistent inflation concerns and elevated oil prices. For heavily indebted countries, the sharp rise in global yields translates into soaring debt-servicing costs that threaten to strain already fragile budgets and amplify fiscal stress.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$47.03 (-1.13%)
5-Day Change: -$32.96 (-0.79%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,887.03 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -3.20

Gold slid to nine-week lows, weighed by expectations that the Fed will tighten at least one more time this year, which is underpinning yields and the dollar. The bear camp seemed disinclined to press the technical advantage ahead of this afternoon's release of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.

 

Minor chart support at $4,065.84 (5-Aug low) has contained the downside thus far, but tests of secondary supports at $4,043.54 (4-Aug low) and $4,022.62 (3-Aug low) must now be considered. As noted earlier in the week, I still believe the low for the year is in at $3,945.52 (30-Jun), but my confidence in that scenario has eroded somewhat with today's downside extension.

Former lows at $4,124.23/$4,125.55 now mark first resistance. Above that, today's overseas high at $4,169.88 protects the high for the week at $4,183.65. A breach of the latter would clear the way for renewed tests above $4,200, where the highs from late last week and the declining 20- and 100-day moving averages come into play.

Not surprisingly, the World Gold Council's Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) confirmed that "a rise in yields and a stronger US dollar were major contributors to September’s drop in [gold] prices." The WGC went on to note that while COMEX positioning contracted sharply, global gold ETFs "recorded US$10bn (67t) of inflows across regions. North America led the charge, followed by Europe and Asia."



I found this paragraph from the WGC report interesting as I've had some difficulty justifying how the current market conditions warrant multi-decade high yields in government bonds, unless concerns about massive and growing debt loads are quietly (for now) ramping:

"Rising government bond yields have generated intense debate this year. Explanations range from stronger growth and a return to historical norms, to fiscal risk and a weakening safe-haven premium. Europe’s surge in gold ETF inflows, led by the UK and exceeding US inflows over the past three months, suggests some investors may see the rise in yields as a warning rather than a healthy normalisation." 

China’s central bank continued gold purchases for a 23rd consecutive month in September, providing some structural demand. Longer-term forecasts from the LBMA conference in Sorrento, Italy still point to potential upside toward $5,000 over the next 12 months, while near-term sentiment is cautious with a downside bias until there's some clarity on the Fed's policy intentions. I'm not expecting to get that from the FOMC minutes today.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.292 (-2.11%)
5-Day Change: -$0.139 (-0.23%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +5.50

Silver fell to a nine-week low of $59 in early U.S. trading, amid persistently high yields and renewed dollar strength. The trade is eagerly anticipating the September FOMC minutes, although I'm doubtful any new insights will be revealed.



Additional losses with potential to the $58.272 Fibonacci level must now be considered. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

A close back above $60 today would ease pressure on the downside somewhat, but the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages must be regained to allow for a retest of recent highs at $62.021/079. Further out, the $70 level is the key to unlocking more significant retracement of this year's losses toward $80.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver continue to face headwinds from dollar strength and elevated yields

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The market has significantly reduced expectations of another rate hike in October, following last week's disappointing jobs report for September. Additionally, the Fed's favored measure of inflation for August came in cooler than expected.

Fed funds futures suggest the probability of steady policy at the next FOMC meeting now stands at 78.4%, that's up from 29.1% a week ago. While diminished, the market still sees a strong probability (84.8%) of at least one 25 bps rate hike by year-end.

U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated today, with the 10-year note hovering near 5.25-5.28%, close to multi-year highs amid ongoing fiscal and inflation concerns. The dollar index hit fresh 18-month highs in overseas trading before moderating somewhat. The greenback is supported by relative U.S. economic strength, the still-hawkish Fed tilt, and generally attractive interest rate differentials.



Iranian Foreign Minister stressed on Sunday that there is “no military solution” and only fair negotiations can end the war, while warning of a stronger response to any renewed confrontation. Meanwhile, Washington is maintaining its focus on economic pressure and a blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled diplomacy.

Brent crude is modestly easier to start the week but is still above the pivotal $100 level amid the diplomatic stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. However, gains have been capped by potential coordinated releases of emergency crude reserves by G7 nations.

ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, signaling continued expansion in the service sector but at a slightly slower pace than expected. While key sub-components like business activity and new orders remained resilient, rising input cost measures indicated persistent inflationary pressures.

The market is also looking forward to the release of the September FOMC minutes for clues on the path of interest rates after soft jobs data reduced October hike odds. Attention will also turn to the early stages of earnings season, ongoing movements in elevated Treasury yields and oil prices, and other data such as jobless claims and consumer sentiment.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.94 (+0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$45.80 (+1.11%)
YTD Range: $3,945.52 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $3,884.61 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: -2.00

Gold has been unable to sustain intraday gains and remains generally defensive in the wake of Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report. While another rate hike in October is looking less likely, the probability for further tightening before year-end remains elevated, keeping yields and the dollar underpinned.



A breach of last week's low at $4,111.49 would put the $4,106.19 Fibonacci level to the test. If the latter gives way, scope would be for a downside extension to the August low at $4,022.62. Minor intervening barriers are noted at $4,065.84 and $4,043.54. While I still believe the summer low at $3,945.52 will remain intact, amid structural underpinning, confidence in that scenario will erode with each successive breach of support.

On the upside, Friday's high at $4,225.02 must be cleared to return focus to the late-September congestion band around $4,300, where important moving averages have converged. A close above the still-climbing 50-day MA at $4,327.72 is needed to confirm a more favorable short-term tone.

Metals Focus forecasts that despite near-term headwinds from high U.S. inflation and rising interest rates, gold will reach new record highs in 2027 with an annual average price of $5,330. They believe strong investment demand, U.S. debt concerns, persistent geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank buying will remain the key drivers supporting gold.

According to Nikkei Asia, Asian gold-producing countries are taking steps to keep more of their domestic gold supply within their borders following recent price surges. Driven by a mix of "resource nationalism," waning confidence in the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, and fears of international sanctions, governments are moving to increase domestic refining, restrict exports through taxes, and build up their central banks' official reserves.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.447 (+2.40%)
5-Day Change: +$0.914 (+1.51%)
YTD Range: $54.778 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $45.563 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +8.64

Silver is maintaining intraday gains, but remains within Friday's range. The white metal is displaying comparative strength versus gold amid AI optimism and risk-on sentiment, which has pushed the Nasdaq to new record highs.



A rebound above the 20-, 50-, 100-day moving average complex is needed to take pressure off the downside and shift focus to the late-September highs at $67.513/529 and the more important 9-Sep high at $68.314. The latter is the key to unlock the $70 zone.

Metals Focus (MF) projects silver to strengthen over the next 12 to 18 months by tracking gold higher before eventually outperforming it as renewed price momentum attracts investor interest. They anticipate this growth will be driven primarily by investment demand rather than physical tightness, as weakening demand in physical markets, jewelry, and industrial fabrication caps immediate support.

Friday's low at $59.708 stands in front of the $58.272 Fibonacci level. Below that, the late-July lows at $56.681/583 would be in play.

PGMs

The outlook for platinum remains constructive despite significant volatility this year, which saw prices hit a record high near $2,900 before pulling back. Supply is heavily concentrated in South Africa (with notable contributions from Russia and elsewhere) and has faced persistent constraints from operational challenges, while demand has generally outpaced production in recent years. This has led to multi-year market deficits that have significantly depleted above-ground stocks.

Platinum is currently trading just above $1,700. Looking ahead, even with forecasts of a modest surplus or near-balance in 2026 (partly tied to investment flows), inventories remain critically low (around a few months of demand cover), supporting a constructive longer-term outlook driven by structural supply tightness and resilient industrial/jewelry demand. Metals Focus projects platinum will average $1,930 in 2026 (up 51% year-over-year) and rise further to an annual average of $2,060 in 2027.

The palladium market has shifted from prolonged deficits toward balance or surplus conditions amid rising recycling, production adjustments, and pressure on automotive demand from the gradual shift toward electric vehicles. Prices are currently around $1,170-1,200. The near-to-medium-term outlook is more subdued than platinum’s, with potential for continued softness or range-bound trading as vehicle electrification and thrifting weigh on consumption, though supply disruptions or slower EV uptake could provide some support.

Metals Focus tilts more bullish, expecting strong performance in 2026 – averaging $1,440 – driven by strategic demand, risks surrounding Russian anti-dumping investigations, and potential U.S. mine supply disruptions. However, they anticipate the market will soften and move toward balance in 2027, with annual average prices dropping 7% year-over-year to $1,330.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.