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Gold jumps to 11-week highs, while silver edges back toward $31

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With an empty economic calendar today, markets are keeping a wary eye on Trump 2.0. President Trump signed dozens of executive orders on Monday and more are in the offing today.

Trump's second term begins with the U.S. economy on sound footing, certainly compared to other major economies. The President's "America first" agenda has arguably stoked some level of additional optimism and hence risk appetite. However, there's also a fair amount of uncertainty associated with Trump's policies, driving some hedging of bets.

The trade is particularly keen to discern the inflationary implications of Trump's trade policies and weigh that against the potentially disinflationary impact of his energy policies. Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday and are off another 1% today.

Trump indicated he would not impose tariffs immediately but would direct federal agencies to first study existing trade policies before making decisions. While he did target Canada and Mexico for 25% tariffs beginning 01-Feb, this may primarily be to illicit help in controlling the borders.

Trade policies that seek to make the U.S. less dependent on imports are undoubtedly prompting our trading partners to find ways to be less dependent on U.S. consumers. That's a heavy lift to be sure, but it may ultimately accelerate the ongoing de-dollarization trend.

Less trade with the U.S., fewer dollars in foreign hands, and less overseas demand for Treasuries. That could provide an additional lift to interest rates.

Post-inauguration focus is shifting to next week's FOMC meeting and PCE data. Fed funds futures currently suggest the next rate cut won't happen until June. That may change when the Fed's favored measure of inflation comes out on 31-Jan.

Russian President Putin said he's open to discussions with President Trump on Ukraine. "We are also open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict," Putin said. "I want to emphasize that its goal should not be a brief truce... but a lasting peace," he added.

In the Middle East, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is holding. The exchange of hostages and prisoners is ongoing.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$16.46 (+0.61%)
5-Day Change: +$49.45 (+1.85%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,731.03
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +31.89

Gold has risen to 11-week highs helped by yields and the dollar which continue to trade off their recent highs. The yellow metal is trading higher for a fourth straight week. While overall risk appetite remains elevated, uncertainty about the implications of the Trump administration's policies is driving some haven interest.



The convincing breach of $2,723.79/$2,724.09 cleared the way for a challenge of the $2,736.55 Fibonacci level (78.6% retrace of the decline from  2,789.68 to $2,541.42). Today's penetration of the latter clears the way for a retest of the all-time high at $2,789.68.

The breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern bodes well for the eventual attainment of the $3,000 objective. An intervening measuring objective is noted at $2.936.

The threat of tariffs has been straining the gold supply chain since last month. The potential for tariffs has led to millions of ounces of gold being transferred from London to CME warehouses. I've seen figures as high as 6Moz.  

Citing an "RBC expert," Umicore reports that "London vaults are emptier than they have been in living memory." That same expert noted the largest single-day Comex inflow in history.

The resulting liquidity squeeze in London has led to gold lease rates reaching levels not seen in decades. Such dislocations tend to be short-lived.

However, with little left in London's coffers and ongoing uncertainty about tariffs, the current conditions could persist for some time. If the millions of ounces already transferred to Comex are here to stay, the bullion banks may turn to the market to rebuild London stocks, providing additional bullish impetus.

The 14-day RSI is currently at three-month highs and the developing overbought condition could keep the high end of the range protected initially. However, setbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Silver is trading higher for a second day, buoyed by 11-week highs in gold and a soft dollar. Optimism about the U.S. economy stemming from President Trump's 'America first' agenda is counterbalanced by growth risks elsewhere in the world and heightened trade worries.



Resistance at $30.892/$31.00 remains intact thus far. This area is highlighted by the 100-day moving average and last week's highs. I've been maintaining for some time, that $31 must be regained to set a more neutral tone and $32 needs to be cleared to revive interest in the underlying bull trend.

The $32 level would become increasingly attractive with fresh record highs in gold.

Like with gold, large physical silver transfers from London to Comex have been seen to avoid potential tariffs. Estimates suggest those flows are in excess of 20Moz.

As I suggested in today's gold commentary the transferred ounces to the U.S. may be here to stay. If London seeks to rebuild stocks, it could provide a significant tailwind for the market.

Failure to sustain gains above the 50-day moving average at $30.392, would leave silver vulnerable to further tests below the 200-day at $30.025. Key support is well defined by the double bottom at $28.802/783.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver higher in thin holiday trade, awaiting Trump's return to the White House 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. markets are closed today in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Today is also inauguration day.

This week, the market's focus will be on Donald Trump's return to the White House and his initial actions on the border, immigration, and trade. However, risk-on sentiment prevails.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter to congressional leaders on Friday saying "extraordinary measures" will be deployed on Tuesday this week to prevent the debt ceiling from being reached. Trump has expressed interest in eliminating the debt ceiling. The national debt is currently a staggering $36.4 trillion.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect yesterday. The exchange of hostages and prisoners has begun.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$5.52 (+0.20%)
5-Day Change: +$44.60 (+1.67%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,724.09
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +30.65

Gold is trading modestly higher in thin holiday trading. Liquidity will diminish after the London close but trading should be active when Tuesday's Asian session begins this afternoon and the market starts to digest the early hours of the Trump administration.


 
The yellow metal set a ten-week high at $2,724.09 on Friday. A more convincing breach of the previous high at $2,723.79 (12-Dec) would bode well for a test of the $2,736.55 Fibonacci level (78.6% retrace of the decline from  2,789.68 to $2,541.42). 

Global ETFs saw net inflows of 19 tonnes last week, led by strong interest from European investors (15.9 tonnes). It was the largest net inflow in 13 weeks.

The CFTC's COT report for the week ended 17-Jan revealed an increase of 24.5k to 279.4k contracts, versus  254.9k in the previous week. That's a 12-week high in net speculative long positioning.

The increase in investor interest bodes well for a challenge of the all-time and range high at $2,789.68.  Further out, there is a measuring objective at $2.936, and $3,000 remains attractive as well.

The overseas low at $2,690.08 marks initial support. Secondary support at $2,657.28/$2,656.10 protects the more important convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages at  $2,6454.23/$2,644.58/$2,642.22.

Silver is trading higher in thin holiday trade, but action is confined to the lower half of Friday's range. The inability of silver to sustain gains above the 100-day moving average and regain $31 last week leaves the downside vulnerable.



Global growth risks remain the greatest headwind for industrial metals such as silver. A retreat below the 200-day moving average at $30.011 would leave the $28.802/783 double bottom vulnerable to a retest.

Last week's COT report showed net speculative long positioning rose 5.2k to an eight-week high of 46.1k contracts, versus 40.9k. It was the biggest jump in net spec longs since the week of 25-Oct'24.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

Silver must regain $31 to set a more neutral near-term tone. Last week's high at $30.956 reinforced this level. Today's overseas high at $30.565 provides an additional intervening barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/17/2025

Gold consolidates above $2,700, while silver retreats from in front of $31

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel and Hamas reportedly have finalized the ceasefire and hostage release deal. This dials back geopolitical risks in the region, but have no illusions, this is not a peace deal.

Geopolitical tensions overall remain high in the Middle East with Israeli hawks worried that the ceasefire will allow Hamas to regroup. Iran and its various proxies, along with the political upheaval in Syria, are seen as destabilizing.

The war between Russia and Ukraine intensified this week with Ukraine firing more U.S. and UK-supplied advanced missiles into Russia. The Kremlin retaliated with its own "massive" missile and drone attacks that targeted Ukrainian infrastructure.

China continues to act aggressively toward its neighbors in the South China Sea. A Philippine security official said this week that Chinese aggression is "pushing us to the wall."

President-elect Trump said he spoke with President Xi of China earlier today and covered many topics. While China's antagonism of Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and others was not specifically mentioned, Trump said that he and Xi "will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!"

Time will tell if Trump can work with world leaders to further mitigate geopolitical tensions. I feel like there's some optimism on that front.

China claims it met its 5% growth target in 2024, led by exports. The threat of tariffs prompted many U.S. companies to accelerate their purchases of Chinese goods to build inventory. However, the ongoing property crisis leaves domestic demand weak and many Chinese feel worse off.

The IMF nudged up its 2025 global growth rate projection to 3.3% from 3.2% based largely on bullish expectations for the U.S. economy. They forecast the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.7% pace, +0.5% from their previous forecast.

The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates next week. This expectation has added some weight to the dollar.

This week's focus was on U.S. inflation data and the implications for Fed policy. The data were mixed, but the market assessed that inflation is sufficiently benign to allow for 50 bps in additional easing this year. Fed funds futures suggest that the next cut likely won't happen until June.

Next week's highlight is going to be Trump's inauguration on Monday and his initial raft of executive orders. Inauguration Day corresponds with the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. U.S. markets and banks will be closed.

Housing Starts surged 15.8% to 1.499M in December, above expectations of 1.320M, versus a positive revised  1.294M in November (was 1.289M). Permits slipped 0.7% to 1.483M. Completions eased 3.6% to 1.544M.

Industrial Production rose 0.9% in December, above expectations of +0.3%, versus a positive revised +0.2% (was -0.1%). Cap utilization accelerated to 77.6%, above expectations of 77.0%, versus 77.0% in November,


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$5.59 (-0.21%)
5-Day Change: +$18.62 (+0.69%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,724.09
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +30.60

Gold has retreated from Thursday's ten-week highs, consolidating gains registered earlier in the week. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is poised for a third consecutive higher weekly close and is up nearly 4% year-to-date.



Gold was helped this week by revived rate cut expectations, which knocked yields and the dollar off their recent highs. Ultimately, a ten-week high was established at $2,724.09.

A more convincing breach of the previous high at $2,723.79 (12-Dec) would bode well for a short-term challenge of the all-time and range high at $2,789.68. The $2,736.55 Fibonacci level offers an intervening barrier.

Further out, there is a measuring objective off the symmetrical triangle breakout at $2.936. Beyond that, I still think we could see $3,000 before the end of Q1.

Gold outperformed all major asset classes in 2024 at +27.2%. Its closest competitor was U.S. large-cap shares at +23.3%. While BitCoin rose 120.8% last year, its market cap and total number of investors remain relatively small.

It would be good to see confirmation of revived ETF inflows and an increase in net spec long positioning on Monday. For now though, that $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range remains intact.

Initial support at $2,700.00/$2,697.07 has contained the downside thus far. Additional support tiers are noted at $2,691.47 and $2,657.28/$2,656.10. The convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages at  $2,648.53/$2,644.55/$2,640.35 is considered a key area.

Silver was unable to regain the $31 level this week, leaving the short to near-term tone vulnerable. The white metal retreated from Thursday's five-week high and appears that the string of higher weekly closes will end at two.



I have maintained for some time now that silver must regain the 31-handle to set a more neutral tone. More importantly, it has been my view that a move back above $32 was needed to provide confidence to the bull camp.

Apparently, the bulls were not heartened by China attaining its growth goal in 2024, nor the IMF's upgrade to U.S. growth expectations for this year.

Silver appears poised to close back below the 50-day moving average today ($30.431), which would leave the 200-day at $30.00 vulnerable to a test. Penetration of the latter would shift focus to this week's low from Monday at $29.553. Key support is defined by the $28.802/783 double bottom.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/16/2025

Gold and silver rally to 5-week highs on the modest revival of rate-cut expectations

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel is claiming that Hamas is already trying to renege on parts of the ceasefire deal. Israel has delayed a cabinet vote on the agreement, suggesting the deal is in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Israel struck targets in Gaza overnight.

Hopes for the ceasefire somewhat dialed down global geopolitical tensions. However, "massive" exchanges of missiles and drone attacks between Russia and Ukraine this week were an offsetting factor.

President-elect Trump's cabinet picks continue to be grilled on Capitol Hill. Given the GOP majority in the Senate, Trump's team is expected to be confirmed.

Firefighters continue to battle two large wildfires in California. Moderating winds provide some hope that the teams will make some progress on containment.

This week's U.S. inflation data were benign enough to garner a modest uptick in Fed rate cut expectations for H1. While Fed funds futures suggest that won't happen until May or June, yields and the dollar have retreated from their recent highs.

Economic weakness elsewhere in the world suggests further easing from other central banks is likely. As a result, interest rate differentials will continue to underpin the dollar.

Retail Sales rose 0.4% in December, below expectations of +0.6%, versus an upward revised +0.8% in November. Ex-auto +0.4% on expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.2% in November.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 217k in the week ended 11-Jan, above expectations of +214k, versus an upward revised +203k in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims fell 18k in the 4-Jan week to 1,859k from 1,877k in the previous week.

Import Price Index +0.1% in December, above expectations of -0.3%, versus +0.1% in  November.

Export Price Index +0.3 in December, above expectations of +0.1%, versus unch in November.

Philly Fed Index surged 55.2 points to a 45-month high of 44.3 in January, well above expectations of -9.0, versus an upward revised -10.9 in December (was -16.4). It was the largest monthly gain since June 2020. The prices paid index rose 5 points to a 25-month high of 31.9.

Business Inventories rose 0.1% in November, in line with expectations, versus unch in October.

NAHB Housing Market Index ticked up to 47 in January from 46 in December.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$10.00 (+0.37%)
5-Day Change: +$41.33 (+1.55%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,712.04
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +30.86

Gold is trading above $2,700 for the first time in over a month.  The yellow metal is higher for a third straight session after benign U.S. inflation data revived H1 rate cut hopes.



Yields and the dollar continue to trade off their recent highs providing some lift for gold. This week's upside extension constitutes a convincing breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern, which lends credence to the previously established measuring objective at $2,933.76.

The December high at $2,723.70 has been approached but remains intact thus far. A breach of this level would bode well for a short-term challenge of the $2,789.68 record high. However, for now, the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range that was established in October and November remains intact.

Initial support is at $2,700.00/$2,697.07 and protects the overseas low $2,691.47. Additional chart support at $2,657.28/$2,656.10 stands in front of the convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages at  $2,643.76/$2,638.40.

Silver is up for a third straight session, buoyed by a softer dollar. The white metal is trading at five-week highs and pressuring the 100-day moving average.



The $28.802/783 double bottom is a bullish chart feature, and yesterday's close above the 50-day MA offered further encouragement to the bull camp. I maintain that a rise above $31 is needed to relieve pressure on the downside, and $32 must be regained to return a measure of credence to the underlying uptrend.

On the bearish side of the equation is the fact that silver remains below the 100-day MA at this point and the 50-day MA crossed below the 100-day last week. These mixed technical signals warrant continued caution.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/15/2025

Gold firms to new highs for the week, silver to four-week highs on softer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel and Hamas have reportedly agreed to a ceasefire and hostage release deal according to the AP. An Israeli official confirmed the deal, but there has not been word from the PMs office yet. 

Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack against critical infrastructure in Ukraine, causing the power grid to be taken down. This was in response to a Ukrainian missile and drone attack on Tuesday that struck targets within Russia.

The Russian attack prompted Poland – a NATO member – to place its air defenses in the "highest state of readiness." Fighter jets were reportedly scrambled as Russia struck targets in Ukraine close to the Polish border.

There have been some indications that Putin is eager to talk with President-elect Trump soon after his inauguration. The Trump campaign had said finding a negotiated solution to the Ukraine conflict was a diplomatic priority.

German GDP fell 0.2% in 2024. That's the second year in a row that Europe's largest economy has contracted. With the machinery and auto sectors continuing to struggle and potential Trump tariffs looming, the prospects for this year aren't any better.

As goes Germany, so goes the rest of Europe. Growth risks should keep the ECB under pressure to continue easing. Banque de France Governor Villeroy said today that he thought the neutral rate was 2%, suggesting another 100 bps of cuts could be seen by summer. 

Today's headline CPI beat somewhat offsets yesterday's PPI miss. Annualized CPI rose to 2.9% in December, the highest since July. Revived hopes for an H1 Fed rate cut that emerged on Tuesday have been pared somewhat today, prompting a rebound in the dollar from new lows for the week.

MBA Mortgage Applications surged 33.3% in the week ended 10-Jan despite high mortgage rates. It was the first positive print in five weeks. 30-year mortgage rates rose for a fifth straight week to a 36-week high of 7.09%. Perhaps buyers and refinancers have simply resolved that mortgage rates aren't coming down any time soon.

CPI rose 0.4% in December, above expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.3% in November; 2.9% y/y, versus 2.7% y/y in November. Core +0.2% in December, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.3%; 3.2% y/y, versus 3.3% in November.

Empire State Index tumbled 12.8 points to a six-month low of -12.6 in January, below expectations of -1.4, versus 0.2% in December. "Both input and selling price increases picked up. Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead," said the NY Fed.

The Beige Book for the January FOMC meeting comes out this afternoon.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$9.44 (+0.35%)
5-Day Change: +$25.92 (+0.97%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,697.10
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +29.24

Gold eked out a new high for the week, helped by a modest improvement in the prospects for a Fed rate cut in H1. The dollar index fell to a new low for the week providing some lift for the yellow metal.

 

While the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range remains intact, I'm mildly encouraged by the fact that gold is holding above the midpoint of the range as well as the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages. A breach of Friday's high at $2,697.10 should allow for tests above $2,700.

A short-term penetration of the December high at $2,723.70 would clear the way for a challenge of the all-time high at $2,789.68. Above the latter, $3,000 would be back in play.

In the latest monthly Gold Compass, Incrementum makes note of gold's stellar performance in 2024. "For the year, gold soared by 27% in USD terms and 35.6% in EUR, fueled by economic uncertainties, inflation fears, and central banks' gold accumulation." 

Incrementum has a price projection of $4,821 for 2030. They also note that gold's market capitalization is approaching $20 trillion and the comparison with BitCoin makes for an interesting chart.

Today's intraday low at $2,670.32 provides a new tier of support ahead of more substantial chart support at $2,657.28/$2,656.10. These levels protect the convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages at $2,644.22/$2,636.44.

Silver has jumped to a four-week high with the breach of resistance at $30.59. The probe above the 50-day moving average is mildly encouraging, suggesting scope for a test of the 100-day at $30.841.



Amid persistent global growth risks, it seems that gains are technical in nature. The small double-bottom at $28.802/783 remains the dominant technical feature, but $31 must still be regained to ease pressure on the downside. More significantly, a move back above $32 is needed to truly reinvigorate the bull camp.

A failure to register a close above the 50-day MA at $30.485 would leave silver vulnerable to a move back below $30. A breach of Fibonacci/chart support at $29.473/442 would set up another run at the $28.802/783 cycle lows.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

1/14/2025

Gold and silver stabilize after yesterday's retreats

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Optimism about a potential ceasefire for hostages deal between Israel and Hamas is contributing to improved risk appetite this morning. Qatari mediators said that Hamas has accepted a draft agreement.

The deal must now be agreed to by Netanyahu and his security cabinet. Israel conducted strikes within Gaza overnight, killing 31.

Offsetting the potential de-escalation in the Middle East; Ukraine fired U.S. and British-supplied missiles into Russia today. While Russia claimed all were shot down, the defense ministry vowed the attacks "will not go unanswered."

Bloomberg reports that the Trump team is exploring a gradual phasing-in of threatened tariffs. The plan proposes 2%-5% monthly increases as a means to mitigate inflation risks. This story seemingly has reduced market angst centered on President-elect Trump's trade policies.

China appears to be announcing new accommodations daily. The latest will allow institutional investors to access PBoC funding for stock purchases. China's yuan-denominated loan program continues to expand as well.

Yields and the dollar have eased today and stocks are mostly better on risk-on sentiment. Weaker-than-expected producer inflation in December has helped the cause. However, recent evidence of a strong U.S. economy has raised worries of revived inflation and led to scaled-back Fed rate cut expectations.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.4 points to a six-year high of 105.1 in December, versus 101.7 in November. “Small business owners feel more certain and hopeful about the economic agenda of the new administration. Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation, and positive business conditions have increased in anticipation of pro-business policies and legislation in the new year,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

PPI rose 0.2% in December, below expectations of +0.4%, versus +0.4% in November; 3.3% y/y versus 3.0% in November. Core was unchanged, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.2% in November; 3.5% y/y, up from 3.4% in November.

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 3.9% to 51.9 in January, a retreat from a 40-month high of 54.0 in December. RCM notes that "fears of inflation and a slowdown persist."


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$5.78 (+0.22%)
5-Day Change: +$18.45 (+0.70%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $2,697.10
52-Week Range: $1,986.16 - $2,789.68
Weighted Alpha: +27.87

Gold has stabilized after starting the week on its back foot.  The yellow metal is hovering around the midpoint of the $2,789.68/$2,541.42 range amid mixed geopolitical signals and a softer dollar.



However, the elevated yield environment should continue to underpin the dollar and pose a headwind for gold. The dollar index set a more than two-year high of 110.18 yesterday.

Umicore reports rising physical demand in Asia ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Gold is considered an auspicious gift throughout much of Asia that signifies wealth, prosperity, and good fortune for the new year. The Lunar New Year falls on January 29.

Global central banks were net buyers of gold in 2024 for a fifteenth consecutive year. While we await finalized data for December, it appears China was a buyer for a second straight month after a six-month pause that ended in November. Standard Chartered Bank notes that gold as a share of total reserves is the highest it has been since 1996. I expect official sector interest in gold to remain robust in 2025.

Chart support at $2,656.10 (9-Jan low) has been reinforced by yesterday's low at $2,657.28. More substantial support is marked by the 7-Jan low at $2,633.26 and the convergence of the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages.

On the upside, the overseas high at $2.674.46 protects Friday's high at $2,697.10, which in turn provides an intervening barrier ahead of the December high at $2,723.70. The latter must be exceeded to clear the way for a challenge of the all-time high at $2,789.68. 

Silver has recouped some of yesterday's losses, but has been unable to regain the 200-day moving average thus far. This leaves the downside vulnerable to further tests of the downside.



The inability of the white metal to clear the trendline on the upside, the 50-day moving average's drop below the 100-day, and the 20-day below the 200-day, are all bearish technical signals. A breach of Fibonacci/chart support at $29.473/442 would set up another run at the $28.802/783 lows.

Those cycle lows are still seen as a small double bottom, but $31 must be regained to return some credence to that chart pattern. Last week's high at $30.59 marks intervening resistance.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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