Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

While the ebb and flow of action in the US #dollar has been buffeting the #gold and #silver trade this week, minimal weakness in the dollar this morning has not provided visible support.

Clearly, reiterated hawkish commentary from the US Federal Reserve Chairman to a US congressional committee prompted the initial washout in gold prices yesterday.

We should note that the Fed chairman yesterday indicated the Fed was sticking with its 2% inflation target which probably increases the likelihood of more than two 25 basis point rate hikes this year...[MORE]

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From a technical perspective, we give the edge to the bear camp with August #gold near the middle of the last month's consolidation zone and probing lower in a fashion that could target $1950.

From a fundamental perspective, the bear camp also has an edge with the #dollar initially making a 3-day high and extending the recovery off last week's spike-down move.

Even investors have turned cool toward gold with Friday presenting a 15th straight day of outflows from gold ETF holdings...[MORE]

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With the Wednesday and Thursday trade in August gold producing wide ranges and ultimately producing a 180-degree sentiment change, support just above $1950 is given added respect.

However, gold appears short-term overbought from the surprise bounce yesterday which was largely attributable to the sharp decline in the dollar and because of softer-than-expected US jobs data.

Even though surveys earlier in the week showed only a 1 in 3 chance the US Fed would hike rates next week, yesterday's 18-month high in US initial claims provided gold with a significant wave of buying which reached $30 per ounce from the low...[MORE]

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With the dollar continuing to trade in a range without signs of clear direction and August gold finding minimal support at yesterday's low of $1955.40, the selloff has been temporarily slowed or arrested.

However, the developing pattern on the dollar charts with 4 consecutive lower highs and 3 consecutive lower lows should provide hope for gold and silver bulls ahead especially if today's US jobs-related data points to a soft economy.

Unfortunately for the bull camp investment signals for gold remain bearish with ETF holdings yesterday declining 30,840 ounces and, in the process, declining for the 7th straight session...[MORE]

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While early action today in gold and silver could produce a narrow trade, the bear camp is somewhat emboldened by comments from a former vice chair of the Fed who predicted further rate hikes this cycle.

The bear camp should also be emboldened by 6 straight outflows from gold and silver ETF holdings. In fact, silver ETF holdings flipped from a net inflow for the year to a net outflow for the year with net sales reaching 3.08 million ounces.

In a minimally supportive demand development (more psychological than physical) Chinese gold reserves at the end of May were 67.27 million ounces compared to 66.76 million ounces at the end of April...[MORE]

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With a fresh new high for the move in the dollar to the highest level since March 15th yesterday, the gold market is short-term overbought and is facing ongoing currency-related pressure.

Surprisingly, silver has avoided the pressure seen in the early gold trade thereby signaling its continued focus on physical commodity fundamentals instead of financial/currency-related factors.

However, gold and silver should see minimal support from a continued slide in US interest rates today...[MORE]

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