Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

In retrospect, the #gold market has held up better than we anticipated following the major reversal action last week.

While gold spent nearly the entire Monday trade in positive territory, it forged a much tighter trading range relative to the action last week, perhaps because the trade is looking ahead to the uncertainty of the US CPI report on Wednesday morning.

However, a portion of the trade sees the US #CPI report as potentially supportive of the idea that consumer #inflation will remain elevated...[MORE]

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While today's economic report slate is benign, data in subsequent sessions will likely produce significant reactions in gold and silver with China releasing import and export figures tonight and the US releasing key inflation readings later in the week.

Overnight China apparently raised its gold holdings by 8.09 tons last month, resulting in October through April gold reserve additions of 120 tons. The overall Chinese gold reserves are pegged at 2,076 tons, but we suggest that number is an unsubstantiated figure likely to be strategically understated by the Chinese central bank.

Last week gold ETF holdings increased by 138,847 ounces but remained down 0.2% on the year. On the other hand, silver ETFs reduced their holdings by 1.2 million ounces last week with year-to-date gains in silver holdings of 0.2%...[MORE]

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Apparently, an avalanche of very disappointing global economic data overnight has not provided economic uncertainty flight to quality buying of gold early on and perhaps more importantly has not sparked long interest in the US dollar.

Perhaps the gold and silver trade is seeing growing #recession fear and expectations of further slowing of physical demand.

Yesterday's bearishness is also accentuated by World Gold Council predictions of softening Indian gold demand in both the June and September quarters...[MORE]

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In our opinion, the gold market has probably forged an intermediate top with a major blowoff range-up reversal overnight. In other words, optimism about the potential for an end to the US rate hike cycle has been embraced and perhaps overdone.

From a fundamental perspective, Indian gold prices posted a record high overnight and in the past Indians have been very price conscious which in turn could result in a near-term demand void.

However, the gold market should be supported by another inflow to gold ETF holdings of 24,688 ounces yesterday as that narrows the year-to-date decline in holdings to only 0.2%...[MORE]

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With the dollar forging a 3-day low early today the gold trade looks to have a modest cushion against the prospects of selling from official confirmation of a US rate hike later today.

At times yesterday, gold and silver prices diverged, with gold remaining consistently in favor in a possible sign of the entrenched flight to quality interest from both economic and political uncertainty.

In fact, news that Iran has seized an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz adds an additional measure of political uncertainty to the gold trade today...[MORE]

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The gold market is showing very little direction this morning and is also exhibiting very little in the way of volatility. That is likely to change within the next 36 hours with the Fed decision tomorrow expected to set a near-term trend for prices.

However, we think the silver market will diverge from gold with classic physical commodity market fundamentals driving silver prices.

Unfortunately for the bull camp in gold, the dollar index appears to be poised to break out to the upside of a 3-week sideways consolidation pattern today perhaps because of signs of negotiating in Washington to avoid a government shutdown...[MORE]

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