Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

With a minimal higher high for the move in the dollar overnight, combined with residual hope of ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations, the bear camp in gold has the initial edge.

Apparently, the gold trade sees an ultimate solution to the US debt ceiling battle with the odds favoring an increase in the debt ceiling and little if any work on the deficit.

Furthermore, gold ETF holdings yesterday declined again this time by 68,837 ounces leaving the year-to-date gain at only 0.2%...[MORE]

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With a definitive upside breakout extension in the #dollar to the highest levels since March 27th this morning the downside pressure in #gold and #silver is expected to extend today.

Strength in the dollar is likely the result of emerging hawkish views toward the US Federal Reserve stance in the June 13/14th FOMC meeting.

While reports of progress on the debt ceiling negotiations lower the prospect of default, until an actual deal is inked traders should fear a breakdown in talks and a last-minute drama of some sort...[MORE]

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Gold and silver extended their downside moves overnight.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that the F#ed will probably need to raise interest rates further if inflation stays high, adding that key data so far this month has not convinced her that price pressures are receding.

This further diminished any optimism remaining from the lower-than-expected PPI data yesterday.

The next meeting between President Biden and Congressional leaders regarding the debt ceiling has been postponed until next week, and this news could provide some safe-haven support to gold...[MORE]

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In retrospect, the #gold market has held up better than we anticipated following the major reversal action last week.

While gold spent nearly the entire Monday trade in positive territory, it forged a much tighter trading range relative to the action last week, perhaps because the trade is looking ahead to the uncertainty of the US CPI report on Wednesday morning.

However, a portion of the trade sees the US #CPI report as potentially supportive of the idea that consumer #inflation will remain elevated...[MORE]

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While today's economic report slate is benign, data in subsequent sessions will likely produce significant reactions in gold and silver with China releasing import and export figures tonight and the US releasing key inflation readings later in the week.

Overnight China apparently raised its gold holdings by 8.09 tons last month, resulting in October through April gold reserve additions of 120 tons. The overall Chinese gold reserves are pegged at 2,076 tons, but we suggest that number is an unsubstantiated figure likely to be strategically understated by the Chinese central bank.

Last week gold ETF holdings increased by 138,847 ounces but remained down 0.2% on the year. On the other hand, silver ETFs reduced their holdings by 1.2 million ounces last week with year-to-date gains in silver holdings of 0.2%...[MORE]

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Apparently, an avalanche of very disappointing global economic data overnight has not provided economic uncertainty flight to quality buying of gold early on and perhaps more importantly has not sparked long interest in the US dollar.

Perhaps the gold and silver trade is seeing growing #recession fear and expectations of further slowing of physical demand.

Yesterday's bearishness is also accentuated by World Gold Council predictions of softening Indian gold demand in both the June and September quarters...[MORE]

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In our opinion, the gold market has probably forged an intermediate top with a major blowoff range-up reversal overnight. In other words, optimism about the potential for an end to the US rate hike cycle has been embraced and perhaps overdone.

From a fundamental perspective, Indian gold prices posted a record high overnight and in the past Indians have been very price conscious which in turn could result in a near-term demand void.

However, the gold market should be supported by another inflow to gold ETF holdings of 24,688 ounces yesterday as that narrows the year-to-date decline in holdings to only 0.2%...[MORE]

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