Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Gold and silver poised for higher weekly closes on haven bid

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Fed's favored measure of inflation accelerated in December, reinforcing the recent more hawkish tilt on policy expectations. Sticky inflation has kept policymakers cautious, prompting a "higher for longer" stance on rates and even discussions of potential hikes if price pressures fail to ease meaningfully.

The PCE price index rose 0.4%, above expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.2% in November. The annualized rate edged up to 2.9% from 2.8% previously. Core PCE also rose 0.4% m/m, on expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.2% in November; 3.0% y/y versus 2.8% in November. 

Advance Q4 GDP disappointed at just 1.4%, well below the consensus of 3.0%, versus 4.4% in Q3. The protracted government shutdown late last year weighed. Slowed growth provides a counterbalance to the price risks noted above. Certainly, the White House will keep pressure on the Fed to resume its easing campaign.

Fed funds futures continue to suggest 50 bps of easing this year. However, that first 25 bps cut is no longer fully priced for September.

The Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 against the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs. This represents a major setback for the White House, potentially requiring billions in refunds to importers, disrupting global trade deals, and creating substantial uncertainty.

Arguably, Trump has been testing the limits of executive power in the first year of his second term. This ruling reaffirms Congress's exclusive authority over tariffs, shifting power back to the legislative branch and limiting the president's unilateral trade actions.

The Trump administration is likely to respond by swiftly shifting to alternative legal authorities to reimpose or replace the invalidated tariffs, aiming to retain as much of the existing trade policy as possible through targeted national security investigations or unfair trade probes.

Pivoting to alternative tariff authorities could at least temporarily mitigate the risk of a widening trade deficit during this transition period. Additionally, countries and companies that committed to major U.S. investments as part of prior trade negotiations might face retaliation if they begin to backtrack on or delay those pledges.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to ratchet higher. President Trump delivered an ultimatum on Thursday, giving Tehran 10 to 15 days to reach a "meaningful" nuclear deal addressing its enrichment activities, ballistic missiles, and proxy support, or face unspecified "really bad things," presumed to include military strikes.

A massive U.S. military buildup in the Middle East involving multiple carrier strike groups, fighter jets, and other assets is ongoing. In response, Iran has conducted joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, fortified its nuclear and military sites, issued warnings of retaliation against U.S. bases or a "regional war" if attacked, and signaled defiance while keeping limited diplomatic channels open for any ongoing diplomacy.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$21.28 (+0.43%)
5-Day Change: +$13.02 (+0.26%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +77.54

Gold is setting new highs for the week, as high geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty stemming from today's SCOTUS decision stoke haven interest. Diminished easing expectations and the stronger dollar pose headwinds, but the yellow metal appears to be on track for a third straight higher weekly close.



A close today back above the midpoint of the range and the 20-day moving average would provide some encouragement to the bull camp for the week ahead. Scope would be for renewed tests above $5,100.

A breach of last week's high at $5,117.94 is needed to put the next retracement level at $5,141.08 back in play. Above the latter, focus would shift to $5,200 and the 78.6% retracement level at $5,340.72. 

On the downside, the early U.S. low at $5,007.42 fortifies the $5,000 zone, protecting the overseas low at $4,985.34. Thursday's low at $4,960.86 provides an additional tier of support ahead of the lows from earlier in the week at $4,855.15/$4,847.74.

The new level of broad uncertainty associated with today's SCOTUS decision, along with the risk for armed conflict with Iran, setbacks in the range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. This lends credence to the scenario that suggests the corrective low is on at $4,406.69 and the long-term uptrend will ultimately reassert itself.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.924 (+2.45%)
5-Day Change: +$4.699 (+6.07%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +170.17

Silver has moved decisively back above $80, buoyed by spillover haven interest. Moves in the white metal often amplify those of gold in such environments due to its higher beta. Silver is poised for its first higher weekly close in four weeks.



A close above the 50-day moving average at $82.028 today would be a bullish technical signal, putting the more important $86.233/287 level in play, where the 11-Feb high corresponds with the declining 20-day moving average. Penetration of the latter in the week ahead would shift focus to $92.186 (04-Feb high) and the halfway back point of the Jan/Feb decline at $92.885.

An eventual move into the upper half of the range would go a long way toward confirming $64.140 as the corrective low. However, I suspect silver will be relegated to choppy trade within the extraordinarily wide $121.630/$64.140 range for some time to come, even as gold moves on to new all-time highs.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold rebounds from losses early in the week to probe back above $5,000

Outside Market Developments: Risk appetite is elevated as fears of "AI disruption" have abated once again. Arguably, the tech/AI overvaluation trade is overdone, and the announced multiyear, strategic partnership between Meta Platforms and Nvidia has helped foster a more balanced view of the sector.

The Munich Security Conference (held February 13 - 15) also provided some lift for the sector, albeit a result of rising concerns, by highlighting the erosion of the post-1945 rules-based international order. The conference report specifically cited "wrecking-ball politics," including U.S. tariffs, trade coercion, wavering Ukraine support, and transatlantic strains. This is likely to prompt Europe to accelerate defense spending, industrial capacity buildup (especially in drones, AI, and tech), and greater strategic autonomy, which has boosted European defense stocks and related sectors.

The conference reinforced expectations for heightened geopolitical risks and global market uncertainty, and warned that the U.S. abandoning benign hegemony could further erode the dollar's reserve currency status. This will lead to broader headwinds for global growth-sensitive assets, while underpinning safe havens like gold.

The dollar peaked in September 2022 as pandemic concerns waned, and the dollar index hit four-year lows in late January amid a rising interest in global de-dollarization. While the greenback is garnering some support from less dovish Fed expectations, the dollar's trend still looks pretty bearish.

The trade was eagerly anticipating today's release of the FOMC minutes from the January meeting. The committee voted 10-2 in favor of holding rates steady at 3.50% - 3.75% after three 25 bps cuts in late 2025. Participants were divided on the future path, with several indicating that further cuts would depend on inflation declining as expected. In contrast, others favored maintaining rates for some time or even considering hikes if disinflation stalls.

The tone of the minutes is deemed to be mildly hawkish, emphasizing patience and a "wait-and-see" approach to assess incoming data and the effects of prior easing. Nonetheless, Fed funds futures continue to reflect expectations for 50 bps in easing by year-end, with the next rate cut not fully priced until September.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$35.44 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: -$105.84 (-2.08%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +73.83

Gold has recovered from the losses earlier in the week, probing back above $5,000. The yellow metal is getting support from bargain hunting on dips, and haven interest stemming from global concerns expressed at the Munich Security Conference. The yellow metal is shrugging off the slightly more hawkish tilt of the Fed minutes and a firmer dollar amid diminished volumes during the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia.



While I suspect short-term volatility within the range will persist, a close back above the midpoint of that range at $5,000.85 and the 20-day moving average at $5,004.95 would provide some encouragement for the bull camp. Such a close would bode well for further tests above $5,100.

A breach of last week's high at $5,117.94 is needed to put the next retracement level at $5,141.08 back in play. Above the latter, focus would shift to $5,200 and the 78.6% retracement level at $5,340.72.

Global ETFs saw net inflows of 14.8 tonnes last week, with Europe and Asia leading the charge at +5.6 and +5.5 tonnes, respectively. Perhaps, surprisingly, there has been just a single week of net outflows (so far) in the wake of the recent massive surge in volatility. This suggests some degree of investor resilience.



Failure to sustain and extend gains above $5,000 into the end of the week would send the bulls back to the sidelines to await their next buying opportunity. Intraday support at $4,906.74 protects the lows from earlier in the week at $4,855.15/$4,847.74. New lows for the week would target $4,800 initially, but potential at that point would be to the 06-Feb low at $4,656.30.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.925 (+2.62%)
5-Day Change: -$7.560 (-8.97%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +146.19

Silver has recovered from the drop earlier in the week to a two-week low of $72.092, buoyed by revived AI/tech sector optimism and perhaps a bit of haven interest as well. The white metal has set a new high for the week, but today's nearly $6 range reflects persistent volatility, warranting ongoing caution.



The next level of resistance is marked by the 13-Feb high at $79.330. A breach of this level would favor tests back above $80, with potential to the 50-day MA at $81.339. More important resistance is presently well protected at $86.287 (11-Feb high), which should correspond closely with the declining 20-day MA by early next week. An eventual penetration would shift attention to the halfway back point of the decline at $92.885.

At this point, a return to the $70 zone can not be ruled out. Minor supports at $75.349 and $74.002/000 stand in front of the recent lows at $72.336/092.

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) – the primary and largest silver ETF – has seen significant outflows. Those outflows are estimated to be in the $400–$800M range based on available recaps. This reflects an investor base that got steamrolled in recent weeks and is unlikely to return unless they sense a real bargain, or renewed strength convinces them of the potential for a move back above $100.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Good morning. The precious metals are trading lower in the latter half of the London session.

U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday.

Gold looks poised for a higher weekly close, while silver is set for its 3rd straight lower weekly close

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Today's CPI report showed U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, below expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.3% in December. The annualized rate of inflation dropped to 2.4%, on expectations of 2.5%, versus 2.7% y/y in December. That's the slowest pace since May 2025.

Core CPI rose 0.3%, in line with expectations, slightly warmer than the +0.2% print in December; 2.5% y/y, down from 2.6% in December. That's the slowest annual pace of core inflation since March 2021.

Rate cut expectations that dimmed following the NFP beat earlier in the week have rebounded slightly, but not significantly enough to alter the policy outlook reflected by Fed funds futures. The Fed is likely on pause through the first half of the year. A half-point of easing is still favored by year-end,  with the first 25 bps cut not fully priced until September. 

While odds for a third 25bps cut in 2026 edged up, risk appetite remains subdued as the market digests Thursday's tech/AI selloff. The trade remains concerned about overvaluation and expectations for large capital expenditures.

President Trump confirmed that he is repositioning a second carrier group to the Middle East "in case we don't make a deal" with Iran on its nuclear program. After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, Trump said he 
preferred a diplomatic deal with Iran, but would keep military options open. Tensions remain high.

Netanyahu insists that any deal must include vital elements for Israel's security beyond a halt to Iran's nuclear activities, including strict limits on its ballistic missiles, and curbs on its support for regional proxies. While Bibi noted that Iran "made a mistake last time by not reaching an agreement," he was skeptical that a new comprehensive deal could be reached. 

Monday is Presidents' Day. Long holiday weekends are often somewhat disruptive to markets, primarily due to reduced trading volume, lower liquidity, and potential for increased volatility or exaggerated price moves. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$32.14 (+0.65%)
5-Day Change: +$42.91 (+0.86%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +78.92

Gold has rebounded into the holiday weekend, buoyed by geopolitical tensions and a soft dollar. Much of Thursday's selloff has been retraced, and the yellow metal remains poised for a second straight higher weekly close, but the comparative weakness in silver today is troubling.



While price action remains confined to the previous day's range (inside day), a close back above the 20-day moving average looks likely. While the bull camp will view that as encouraging, I wouldn't be surprised to see prices moderate ahead of the long weekend. As we saw on Thursday, some longs are quick to hit the exits on any sign of technical weakness.

If gold can sustain gains above the 20-day, look for renewed tests above $5,100 early in the week ahead. A breach of Wednesday's high at $5,117.94 would clear the way for a true test of the 61.8% retracement level at $5,141.08. Above the latter, $5,200, and the 78.6% retracement level at $5,340.72 would attract.

On the downside, initial support is marked by the 20-day MA at $4,974.96. Below that, today's Asian low at $4,890.72 protects the low for the week at $4,882.43. Given that volatility remains high and the bulls still have some trepidation, a drop back to the $4,800 zone remains a possibility.

While it does seem likely that we're in for further consolidation within the broad $5,595.02/$4,406.69 range, I continue to believe the dominant trend is up. Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark J. Valek of Incrementum concur, writing, "In our view, the sharp pullback, while large on the surface, becomes more reasonable in light of recent dynamics and still allowed gold to post an impressive +12.75% in USD for the month. Combined with broad strength across all currencies we track, this remains typical of a healthy bull market and signals a correction after a vertical move rather than a trend reversal."

I might quibble with their use of the term "typical," as a three-day decline of more than $1,000 is anything but. That being said, I have a lot of respect for the analysis generated by Incrementum. Their Monthly Gold Compass can be found here.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$2.039 (+2.71%)
5-Day Change: +$0.203 (+0.26%)
YTD Range: $64.140 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +157.00

Silver edged to a new low for the week in Asian trading before rebounding into the range. While a higher daily close seems likely, the white metal appears on track for a third consecutive lower weekly close, as well as a close back below the 50-day moving average.



A comparatively buoyant gold market, a slightly more dovish Fed outlook, and a soft dollar provide some support. Still positive fundamentals like structural supply deficits, strong investment and industrial demand, and geopolitical/macro support lend credence to the belief that the underlying trend remains positive.

However, the magnitude of the recent volatility has stoked considerable trepidation amongst market bulls, making them reluctant to recommit to the upside, perhaps especially ahead of a long holiday weekend. Ongoing concerns about the tech/AI sector – and the potential knock-on effects for industrial demand – add additional uncertainty to the outlook.

The failure of the market to sustain midweek gains above the 38.2% retracement level at $86.101 leaves the $90 zone well protected for the time being. We may have to see the 70-handle again to trigger renewed bargain hunting.

The halfway back point of the entire decline at $92.885 probably needs to be cleared to truly reinvigorate the bull camp. The declining 20-day MA will bolster the significance of the $90 zone as an intervening barrier early in the new week.

Choppy, volatile trading is likely to persist. Keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times!


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver set new weekly highs, despite dimmed hopes for an H1 Fed rate cut

Outside Market Developments: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 130k in January, above expectations of +70k, versus a revised +48k in December (was +50k). The jobless rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4%.

Despite recent weak data and mounting concerns about job growth, January saw the largest increase in jobs in 13 months. Job gains were primarily driven by sectors such as health care, social assistance, and construction, while the federal government and financial activities saw declines.

Federal government employment fell by 34k in January, pushing the cumulative decline since the start of the Trump administration to roughly -325k jobs. The White House was quick to tout that federal jobs now represent their smallest share of the total workforce since 1966, framing the reductions as a successful "rightsizing" of the bureaucracy.

Total back-month revisions of -17k painted 2025 as an exceptionally weak year for job growth, averaging just +15k per month. Nonetheless, January's surprise beat has some of the more optimistic analysts believing the worst of the labor market slowdown is behind us.

Fed funds future sold off on the news, reflecting an even less dovish bias for H1, sapping risk appetite. The market is still anticipating about 50 bps of easing this year, with the first 25 bps cut unlikely before September.

More broadly, U.S. yields are higher today, though the dollar remained defensive following the news early in the week that China accelerated its long-term de-dollarization efforts by urging domestic banks to limit purchases and gradually reduce holdings of U.S. Treasuries.  The dollar index fell to new lows for the week, and almost exactly 61.8% of the recent rally has now been retraced.

President Trump hinted that he might deploy a second carrier group to the Middle East if ongoing negotiations with the Iranian regime falter. Israeli President Netanyahu is meeting with Trump in Washington today to push for any deal to include Iran's missile program and Iranian proxies. Although both sides have engaged in saber-rattling that has heightened regional tensions, diplomatic efforts continue to move forward.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$87.08 (+1.73%)
5-Day Change: +$84.85 (+1.71%)
YTD Range: $4,310.83 - $5,595.02
52-Week Range: $2,835.23 - $5,595.02
Weighted Alpha: +80.92

Gold set new two-week highs, buoyed by persistent safe-haven demand, firmer silver, and dollar weakness. The yellow metal is also displaying some resilience in the face of today's solid NFP print and dimmed hopes for an H1 Fed rate cut.



With gold holding above the 20-day MA and the midpoint of the recent broad range, I suspect bull camp optimism is on the rise. However, the scale of the recent volatility likely still gives them some hesitation.

Today's early U.S. high at $5,117.94 now provides an intervening barrier ahead of the 61.8% retracement level of the recent plunge at $5,141.08. Penetration of the latter would bode well for tests above $5,200 and would go a long way toward confirming the corrective low is in place at $4,406.69. The next Fibonacci level on the upside is at $5,340.72 (78.6%).

Today's Asian low at $5,024.35 stands in front of the midpoint of the range at $5,000.85. Secondary supports marked by the lows from the previous two days at $4,992.10 and $4,966.62 protect the rising 20-day MA at $4,938.07.

At this point, I wouldn't rule out risk for tests below $4,800. However, short-term dips within the range are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, given the broadly supportive underlying fundamentals; persistent central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, de-dollarization trends, and expectations of lower real interest rates over the medium term.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$5.307 (+6.57%)
5-Day Change: -$5.157 (-5.85%)
YTD Range: $64.14 - $121.630
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $121.630
Weighted Alpha: +179.59

Silver firmed to reach new highs for the week, above $86 in early U.S. trading, helped by a weak dollar and strength in gold. While the white metal retreated into the intraday range after the jobs report, I'm impressed by the resilience and the relative calm so far this week. I joked with my colleagues yesterday that the daily range was shockingly less than $4!



As noted above, gold has retraced nearly 61.8% of the recent correction, but silver has completed just a 38.2% retracement. Gold's relative strength is reflected in the gold/silver ratio, which is nearly 40% off the late-January low of 43.57.

Today's robust jobs report underscored economic resilience while sharply diminishing prospects for imminent Fed rate cuts, elevating Treasury yields. Increased borrowing costs, in turn, pressure valuations for growth-focused technology stocks and increase the financial burden of substantial capital expenditures planned by numerous AI firms.

Silver is an important component in electronics and AI infrastructure. If higher borrowing costs throttle AI capex, it could pose a headwind for demand.

Despite the stunning magnitude of the recent plunge (nearly 50%, high to low), the underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Those include strong and growing industrial demand – particularly in solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, electronics, and green energy applications – persistent supply deficits, investor buying as a monetary hedge, and its dual role as both a precious metal safe-haven and an industrial commodity.

Today's gains bode well for short-term tests back above $90. The next significant resistances are at $90.392 (05-Feb high), $92.186 (4-Feb high), and, perhaps most importantly, the convergence of the 20-day MA with the halfway back point of the entire decline at $92.380/885.

The $80.018/00 support zone will be bolstered by the rising 50-day MA by the end of the week, but the bulls shouldn't be lulled into a false sense of security by the diminished volatility. If we've learned anything over the past three weeks, it's that the silver market can let go with little to no warning, and it is an extraordinarily unforgiving market when it does.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.