Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Gold and silver start the week with new record and 14-year highs, respectively

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The U.S. federal government is on the brink of a partial shutdown starting October 1, with Congress deadlocked on a funding deal. The White House has directed agencies to prepare for permanent mass firings of federal workers in non-essential programs. Both parties seem more concerned about ensuring the other side gets the blame rather than striking a deal to fund the government.

Even if a CR is agreed upon, it would likely only fund the government for about seven weeks as negotiations on full-year appropriations continue. Any relief provided by a CR would be short-lived.

The focus at the end of the week will be on the September jobs report. However, BLS data processing and publication are deemed non-essential operations, so a government shutdown could delay the report.

Median expectations are +50k jobs, a continuation of recent weakness. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

President Trump has proffered a 21-point peace plan for Gaza. Key elements reportedly include the surrender and disarmament of Hamas, the release of the remaining hostages, deployment of an international security force, and hints at a process that could lead to a Palestinian state. 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is meeting with Trump at the White House today to discuss the proposal. The plan includes some non-starters for both Israel and Hamas. 

Pending Home Sales Index rose 4% to 74.7 in August, well above expectations of +0.3%, versus -0.3% in July. "Lower mortgage rates are enabling more homebuyers to go under contract," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Dallas Fed Index fell 6.9 points to a three-month low of -8.7 in September, versus -1.8 in August. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$58.06 (+1.54%)
5-Day Change: +$83.86 (+2.24%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,833.43
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,833.43
Weighted Alpha: +48.60

GOLD

Gold begins the week on the bid, establishing fresh record highs. The yellow metal is being buoyed by haven interest associated with the risks of a government shutdown and a weaker dollar.



Geopolitical and trade tensions remain elevated. The market remains worried about inflation, but is also anticipating further rate cuts that could stoke that inflation, creating a bit of a perfect storm for gold.

Bloomberg reports that Switzerland has offered to invest in the U.S. gold-refining industry, in hopes of persuading the Trump administration to lower the recently imposed 39% import tariff. The plan could include building a new refinery and/or expanding existing processing capacity as a means to reduce the Swiss trade surplus with the United States.

Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of 27.2 tonnes last week, led once again by North American investors. It was the fifth straight week of inflows.

Today's convincing breach of the targeted $3,800 level lends credence to longer-term objectives at $4,000 and $5,000. The next big round number at $3,900 marks an intervening barrier.

The first tier of support is $3,807.12/$3,800.00. Below that, the previous high at $3,790.90 protects today's intraday low at $3,760.05.

While gold is quite overbought at this point and vulnerable to setbacks, the trade is likely to continue viewing downticks as buying opportunities. If Congress passes a CR before the government shuts down, corrective potential could be to the rising 20-day moving average at $3,667.51.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.903 (+1.96%)
5-Day Change: +$2.971 (+6.74%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $47.172
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $47.172
Weighted Alpha: +60.83

Silver extended to the upside, reaching new 14-year highs. The white metal is now up more than 17% for September, spurred by solidly bullish supply/demand dynamics, a resilient U.S. economy, above-target inflation, dovish Fed expectations, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven spillover from record-high gold.



Based on all these factors, and a very bullish technical picture, record highs in silver above $50 are looking increasingly likely. The $47.973/$48.000 zone is the next upside target.

The gold/silver ratio has fallen to an 11-month low of 80.468, suggesting ongoing silver outperformance. The 78.6% retracement level comes in at 80.065. If that level is negated, potential would be back to last year's low at 72.675.

However, like gold, the silver market is very overbought at this point, having notched just six down days so far this month. Be cautious, because silver can be quite volatile when the bulls start booking profits.

The early U.S. low at $46.486 marks first support. Today's low was set in Asia at $45.955 is the more important level to watch. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver poised for sixth straight higher weekly closes

Outside Market Developments: Headline PCE inflation ticked up to 2.7% y/y in August, while core inflation was unchanged at 2.9%. With the Fed's favored measure of inflation still nearly a full percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, sticky inflation remains a market concern with implications for the Fed's policy path.

Personal income and expenditures beat expectations. On Thursday, it was reported that the U.S. economy grew at a revised 3.8% annualized rate in Q2, its fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment. Durable orders beat expectations by a wide margin.

These data reflect a resilient and robust economy, with above-target but stable inflation. The market has modestly pared its dovish Fed expectations as a result.  Prospects for a 25 bps cut in October stand at 87.7%, with the probability of another in December at 63.6%.

No progress has been made this week on averting a partial government shutdown that would begin on October 1. A last-ditch Senate vote on September 29 is possible, but the chances of a CR are slim with both Democrats and Republicans unwilling to make concessions. Without a CR to fund the government, markets and federal operations face immediate turbulence.

Personal Income rose 0.4% in August, above expectations of +0.3%, versus +0.4% in July.

PCE rose 0.6% in August, above expectations of +0.5%, versus +0.5% in July.

PCE Chain Price Index rose 0.3% in August, in line with expectations, versus +0.2% un July; 2.7% y/y, versus 2.6% in July. Core +0.2% m/m, in line, versus +0.2% in July; 2.9% y/y, unchanged from July.

Michigan Sentiment was revised down to 55.1 in the final reading for September, versus 55.4 previously and 58.2 in August.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$4.73 (-0.13%)
5-Day Change: +$78.42 (+2.13%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,790.90
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,790.90
Weighted Alpha: +45.56

Gold heads into the weekend on the bid and within striking distance of the $3,790.90 record high set on Tuesday. The yellow metal is poised for a sixth consecutive higher weekly close.



Haven interest remains strong with the U.S. seemingly hurdling toward a partial government shutdown. Geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and expectations of further Fed easing are contributing factors.

The modest rebound in the dollar stemming from this week's strong U.S. economic data poses a bit of a headwind for gold. However, the dollar index set a more than three-year low last week, and gains are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities as long as Fed expectations are tilted dovish.

Short-term focus remains on a true test of the $3,800, with scope for an eventual push to $4,000. Further out, $5,000 is looking increasingly attractive.

Today's intraday low $3,734.87 now protects the $3,722.51/17.65 level. The low for the week set on Monday at $3,684.09 looks well protected and will likely correspond with the rising 20-day MA next week. 


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.156 (-0.35%)
5-Day Change: +$2.477 (+5.75%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $45.583
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $45.583
Weighted Alpha: +56.74

Silver continues its march higher, spurred by robust U.S. economic data, expectations of further Fed easing, strong supply/demand fundamentals, and a bullish technical picture. The white metal notched another round of new 14-year highs and is poised for a sixth straight higher weekly close.



The convincing breach of $45 sparked follow-through buying that pushed silver above $46 for the first time since May 2011. Today's upside extension lends additional confidence to previously established objectives at $47.973 (Fibonacci) and $48.105 (May 2011 high). Further out, record highs around $50 are looking increasingly attractive.

The $45 zone is now the first meaningful support. Today's Asian low at $44.611 stands in front of congestion around $44.

PGMs

Platinum surged to 12-year highs near $1,600, spurred by a persistent supply-demand imbalance, amplified by investor shifts and industrial resilience. Unlike gold's purely safe-haven appeal, platinum benefits from its dual role in investment and manufacturing, particularly autos and green tech.

Palladium traded above $1,300 for the first time since late July, buoyed by broad-based strength in the precious metals complex. While long-term forecasts of surpluses from recycling and substitution keep XPD underperforming, near-term market tightness – exacerbated by Russia's 40% share of global supply – has sparked bullish positioning.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold underpinned by haven interest, as silver outperforms

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Despite the release of generally favorable U.S. economic data this morning, risk appetite is subdued. Signs of a resilient economy and a nine-week low in jobless claims have prompted the trade to trim Fed easing expectations.

Prospects for 50 bps of additional easing by year-end have fallen to 65.1% from 73.3% yesterday and 82.1% a week ago. This has the dollar on the bid, with the dollar index trading at three-week highs.

The Fed has stressed that the policy path remains data-dependent. There is a host of FedSpeak today and tomorrow, which may provide some additional clarity on the central bank's intentions.

Republicans and democrats are digging in their heels ahead of a potential partial government shutdown next week. The Office of Management and Budget said agencies that would lose funding should start preparing to cut jobs. The Trump administration has indicated that some may be permanent reduction in force firings, rather than temporary furloughs.

Fiscal worries will continue to weigh on market sentiment. Besides the potential government shutdown, the national debt stands at $37.4 trillion, about 123% of GDP. The CBO projects the U.S. could reach the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling as early as late 2026. 

Durable Orders rebounded 2.9% in August, well above market expectations of -0.4%, versus a revised -2.7% in July (was -2.8%). Transportation orders surged 7.9%, versus -9.4% in July.

Initial Jobless Claims plunged 14k to a nine-week low of 218k in the week ended 20-Sep, inside expectations of 234k, versus a revised 232k in the previous week (was 231k). Continuing claims edged down to 1,926k from 1,928k in the previous week.

Q2 GDP was revised up to +3.8% in the third report, above expectations of +3.3%, versus +3.3% previously and -0.6% in Q1.

Trade Balance narrowed to -$85.5 bln in August, inside expectations of -$92.5 bln, versus a revised -$102.8 bln in July (was -$103.6 bln).

Existing Home Sales edged down to a 4.00M pace in August, above expectations of 3.96M, versus 4.01M in July.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$20.86 (+0.56%)
5-Day Change: +$92.07 (+2.53%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,790.90
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,790.90
Weighted Alpha: +44.10

GOLD

Gold is consolidating Wednesday's corrective losses, with price activity confined to yesterday's range. Dovish Fed expectations ebbed somewhat today after some generally favorable U.S. economic data came out, lifting the dollar index to three-week highs.



Despite today's dollar strength, the yellow metal is displaying some resilience amid persistent haven interest associated with geopolitical, trade, and fiscal worries. Gold remains very much within reach of Tuesday's record high at $3,790.90.

Gold ETFs saw a solid 35.5 tonnes of inflows last week. It was the fourth consecutive week of net inflows. Investor interest remains strong, particularly among those in North America.

Short-term focus remains on a true test of the $3,800, with scope for an eventual push to $4,000. Further out, $5,000 is looking increasingly attractive.

Today's intraday low at $3,722.51 bolsters Wednesday's low at $3,717.65. If the latter is penetrated, Monday's low at $3,684.09 would be in play, with potential to the rising 20-day moving average, which is at $3,633.78 today.

Buying into dips is likely to remain favored. That could get derailed temporarily if PCE inflation comes in hotter than expected tomorrow, as it would further erode dovish Fed expectations.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.089 (+2.48%)
5-Day Change: +$2.983 (+7.13%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $45.073
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $45.073
Weighted Alpha: +53.13

Silver remains well bid, having set new 14-year highs just ahead of today's U.S. open. Strong durable orders in August, along with a robust revision to Q2 GDP provide solid underpinnings to industrial demand expectations.



Haven interest remains strong as well, with new record highs in gold, making silver an increasingly appealing alternative. The strong technical picture is bolstered by weakness in the gold/silver ratio, which fell to a nine-month low of 83.276 today. This suggests silver is likely to continue outperforming.

A more convincing breach of $45 would lend additional confidence to the bullish scenario that calls for a challenge of record highs around $50. An intervening barrier is marked by the $47.973 Fibonacci objective, which corresponds closely with the $48.105 high from May 2011.

Today's early U.S. low at $44.211 protects the low for the day at $43.784. More substantial support marked by the lows from Wednesday and Tuesday at $43.679/651, which stands in front of the low for the week at $43.035.

Look for setbacks to continue attracting buying interest.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold firms ahead of the weekend, bolstering confidence in the underlying uptrend

Outside Market Developments: Markets continue to digest the Fed's move this week and its forward guidance. Risk appetite is in neutral territory today, tempered by expectations of heightened trading volumes and volatility associated with today's quadruple witching.

Fed Chairman Powell framed Wednesday's 25 bps rate cut as a "risk management" move, a precautionary adjustment to mitigate potential future downside risks, particularly a further weakening in employment. That raised some doubts about future cuts, given that inflation remains above target.

However, the dot plot suggests that FOMC members anticipate 25-bps cuts at the two remaining meetings this year. Fed funds futures now reflect these expectations, with a 91% probability of a 25-bps cut in October and 78.6% probability of another in December.

The implied Fed funds rate for Jun'26 is 3.2625%. For the end of next year, the implied rate is currently 2.9650%.

The BoJ held rates steady today in a widely anticipated non-move. Governor Ueda emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting risks from a weakening yen and global trade tensions.

President Trump spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi today. The conversation focused on finalizing a TikTok deal, tariffs, and potentially paving the way for an in-person summit. Any progress on these fronts that mitigate U.S.-China tensions would stoke risk appetite.

Looking ahead to next week, we'll kick off with a host of FedSpeak and hopefully some additional clarity on the policy path. Other highlights are the S&P Global PMIs. Durable Orders and PCE, including the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$11.63 (+0.32%)
5-Day Change: +$11.28 (+0.37%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,707.12
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,707.12
Weighted Alpha: +41.71

Gold is trading higher after two days of corrective losses, less than 1% below Wednesday's all-time high. More than 50% of the losses have already been retraced. If today's gains are sustained, the yellow metal will notch its fifth straight higher weekly close.



Expectations of further rate cuts are broadly supportive of the dominant uptrend, but the same is true of risk assets, like stocks. All of the major stock indexes set new record highs following the Fed's easing, sapping gold's haven appeal somewhat.

A firmer dollar in the latter half of the week also poses a bit of a headwind. The dollar index has eked out a new high for the week after falling to more-than three-year lows on Wednesday. The dollar index is down about 10% YTD, which has been a factor in gold's impressive rally this year.

The bull camp should be encouraged by gold's inability to take out support marked by the low for the week set on Monday at $3,626.99. Call $3,628.77/26.99 key short-term support. Secondary support is at $3,604.08/$3,600.00. The 20-day moving average should rise to the $3,600 zone next week.

Previously established upside objectives at $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective) remain valid. The highs from earlier in the week at $3,702.93/$3,707.12 provide an intervening barrier. Further out, I still like $3,800 and $4,000.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.424 (+1.01%)
5-Day Change: +$0.207 (+0.49%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.968
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.968
Weighted Alpha: +44.08

Silver has surged more than 2% today, and most of the recent corrective losses have been retraced. The white metal is on track for a fifth consecutive higher weekly close.



With the Fed's easing campaign back underway after an eight-month pause, and hopes for reduced tensions between the U.S. and China, silver's rally seems to have more room to run. A move to new 14-year highs at $42.969/$43.000 would bode well for the attainment of previously established objectives at $43.352 (Sep'11 high) and $44.167 (Aug'11 high). Above the latter, I have a Fibonacci objective at $44.743

Intraday support at $42.290/281 protects the $41.965/958 level and should keep today's overseas low at $41.659 at bay. Thursday's corrective low $41.142 is deemed key short-term support, which should be bolstered by the 20-day MA early in the week ahead.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

I'm now writing the newsletter three times a week, on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. If market conditions warrant, I will email more frequently. Please follow @ZanerMetals on X for intraday updates. I will be out of the office on Monday, September 22.

Gold remains underpinned ahead of Fed decision

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The Fed will announce policy this afternoon, along with its economic forecasts. A 25 bps rate cut is widely expected.

Fed funds futures project 65 bps in easing by year-end, 113 bps through June of 2026, and 146 bps by the end of next year. We'll see later today how the market expectations compare to the dots, providing a critical piece of guidance.

Stephen Miran was confirmed as a governor on Monday, replacing Adriana Kugler, who resigned last month. Miran is perceived to be a dove and is expected to vote in favor of resuming the Fed's easing campaign, which has been on pause this year. I'm curious to see if he dissents in favor of a 50 bps cut.

Lisa Cook remains a governor for this meeting after court rulings blocked her from being fired. However, the White House seems unlikely to abandon its efforts to oust her from the Fed for cause.

The trade continues to worry that the central bank is losing its independence. However, the Fed has never been truly apolitical; both FDR and LBJ exerted influence on monetary policy in the past. President Carter tapped Fed chairman G. William Miller to be his Treasury Secretary. 

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps this morning in a move that was widely expected. "With a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation, Governing Council judged that a reduction in the policy rate was appropriate to better balance the risks," according to the policy statement.

The BoJ begins its two-day meeting on Thursday. They are expected to hold steady when they announce policy on Friday.

MBA Mortgage Applications surged 29.7% in the week ended 12-Sep, versus +9.2% in the previous week. U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to an 11-month low of 6.39%.

Housing Starts fell 8.5% to a 1.307M pace in August, below expectations of 1.370M, versus a revised 1.429M in July (was 1.428M). Permits contracted 3.7% to 1.312M from 1.362M. Completions jumped 8.4% to 1.608M from 1.483M.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$28.33 (-0.77%)
5-Day Change: +$44.54 (+1.22%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,702.93
52-Week Range: $2,541.42 - $3,702.93
Weighted Alpha: +43.35

GOLD

Gold turned mildly corrective as the market awaits today's Fed decision and forward guidance. However, the yellow metal is still higher on the week after setting an all-time high of $3,702.93 on Tuesday.



With a 25 bps cut baked into the cake, the guidance and Powell's presser will carry greater weight than the easing itself. Unless, of course, they surprise with a 50 bps cut or another hold. Persistent worries about Fed independence will continue to underpin gold.

If the dots show a more dovish tilt in the wake of recent signs of labor market weakness, I'd look for gold to continue its rally and set fresh record highs. If a more cautious approach to further easing is signalled, we could see a more sustained pullback. That being said, any corrective retreat is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity within the long-term uptrend.

Today's early U.S. low at $3,660.24 marks first support. Additional downside barriers are noted at $3,626.99 (Monday's low), $3,614.69 (Thursday's low), which protect last week's low at $3,580.13.

On the upside, fresh highs above $3,702.93 would bode well for the attainment of previously established objectives at $3,730.44 (Fibonacci) and $3,743 (measuring objective). Above the latter, $3,800 would attract, and make $4,000 gold increasingly appealing.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$1.1267 (-2.98%)
5-Day Change: +$0.892 (+2.13%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $42.968
52-Week Range: $28.565 - $42.968
Weighted Alpha: +42.46

Silver dropped sharply in overseas trading as investors paired long exposure ahead of today's Fed decision. Much of those intraday losses have already been retraced.



Today's European low at $41.142 now defines good short-term support, ahead of the rising 20-day moving average at $40.533, which corresponds closely with last week's low at $40.547.

Post-Fed, if the white metal is able to sustain the intraday rebound above $42, I'd expect further tests above $43. The following remain valid upside targets: $43.352 (Sep'24 high), $44.167 (Aug'24 high), and $44.743 (Fibonacci). 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.