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Gold $2,630.55 $7.77 0.3% Silver $29.72 $0.22 0.75% Platinum $938.25 $11.65 1.26% Palladium $928.71 $12.72 1.39%
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Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

Morning Metals Call
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Gold Chart
 
U.S. calendar features MBA Mortgage Applications, CPI (+0.2% expected), EIA Data.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Tuesday, August 13, 2024

8/13/2024

Gold flirts with record highs, while silver remains defensive 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that U.S. consumers see spending increasing at a slower 4.9% pace over the next 12 months. That's the smallest increase in spending since April 2021, when inflation was first taking hold.

July retail sales data come out on Thursday, so we'll see if consumers have started pulling back. The market is expecting a 0.4% m/m rise. We will also get earnings reports from some key retailers this week.

As consumers refuse to pay high prices and reduce spending inflation tends to cool. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations tumbled 0.6% to a new series low (since June 2013) of 2.3% in July. 

While it seems extremely likely that the Fed will cut rates in September, at least consumers think inflation will remain above the central bank's 2% target for several more years. If that's the case, while rates may come down, monetary policy will likely remain broadly restrictive for some time to come.

Home Depot's CFO says that consumers continue to have a “deferral mindset” when it comes to buying/selling homes and making home improvements due to high prices, high interest rates, and growing uncertainty about the economy. While Q2 earnings and sales beat expectations, guidance is calling for a decline of 3% to 4% in full-year comparable sales.

U.S. PPI rose 0.1% in July, below expectations of +0.2%, versus +0.2% in June; 2.2% y/y, down from a revised 2.7% in June. Core was unchanged, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in June; 2.4% y/y, down from 3.0% in June.

U.S. yields and the dollar slid in reaction as Fed easing expectations once again favor a 50 bps cut at the September FOMC meeting. Focus now turns to tomorrow's CPI release and import/export prices on Thursday.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, the 50-year average for the index is 98, and June was the 31st consecutive month below that average.

Inflation remains the most significant issue weighing on small business optimism. “Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

We'll hear FedSpeak from Atlanta Fed President Bostic this afternoon. Bostic is a fervent dove.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$9.83 (-0.40%)
5-Day Change: +$83.26 (+3.48%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +31.85

Gold breached resistance at $2,474.58 (02-Aug high) in overseas trading, establishing a fresh 4-week high at $2,476.29 before dipping back into the range. The yellow metal appears poised for new all-time highs, with just the $2,481.33 peak from 17-Jul left to beat.



Gold is back above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages and all are tracking higher once again. We just need new highs to confirm the uptrend is back underway after a very reasonable four-week corrective/consolidative phase.

I suspect gold will be tentative ahead of tomorrow's CPI print, but the technical picture is looking pretty good at this point. Even if there is a pullback into the range, I anticipate the lows will be higher and I would look for a continuation pattern to continue developing.

A confirmed upside breakout would target $2,500.00/$2,503.27 initially. Beyond that, $2,539.77 would attract based on a Fibonacci projection.

Initial support is defined by the overseas $2,459.42. There's some minor intraday support from yesterday at $2,440.37/$2,440.00, but the more substantial $2424.62/$2,417.83 zone appears to be well protected at this point.

Not surprisingly, last week's sharp sell-off led to outflows from gold ETFs. North Americans were the biggest sellers. Asian investors took advantage of lower prices and were net buyers.

 
Inflows in July were the largest in more than two years and it was the third consecutive month of net inflows. North Americans and Europeans led the charge. With mounting growth risks in the front of investors' minds, gold is likely to remain attractive portfolio diversification moving forward.

The most recent COT report showed speculative net positions declined further last week to 238.7k contracts, versus 246.6k in the previous week. It was the second consecutive decline from the near two-year high of 273.1k at the end of July.

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

I imagine this week's price action is wooing back at least some of those spec longs. New record highs would attract further buying interest.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.243(-0.87%)
5-Day Change: +$0.671 (+2.49%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +19.57

Silver was unable to sustain yesterday's gains and is currently trading more than 1% lower on the day. The white metal seems to be largely ignoring gains in the gold market.



This suggests that worries about global growth risk and demand destruction in the industrial sector are overwhelming the haven appeal of silver.

So far, today's price action remains confined to Monday's range. However, the fact that silver continues to attract selling interest on upticks leaves more important resistances at $29 and $30 well protected.

With the market still below the important 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, further attacks on the downside can not be ruled out. However, fresh highs in gold might prevent new cycle lows in silver below last week's low at $26.524.

A sharp drop in consumer inflation tomorrow might help the cause as well. That would heighten Fed rate hike expectations and weigh on the dollar.

The COT report for silver showed that net speculative positions held steady at 49.1k last week. I see that as somewhat encouraging given the magnitude of last week's decline.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

I think the specs are likely to remain cautious, even at these arguably attractive prices. If we see an increase in the net long position this week without making new lows, I'd be a little more confident about suggesting the low is in.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.
 
Gold Chart
 
U.S. calendar features Small Business Optimism, PPI (+0.2% expected), FedSpeak from Bostic.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Monday, August 12, 2024

8/12/2024

Gold and silver trade higher as the market looks ahead to U.S. inflation data

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
: U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pledged "to take every possible step to defend Israel" in a call with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Amid ongoing fears of an Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel, Austin has ordered the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to the region and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to "accelerate its transit" to the Middle East.

Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed over the weekend that Ukrainian troops are operating inside Russia. The incursion is entering its seventh day and Russian forces are still trying to contain the attack. The U.S. is sending an additional $125M worth of weapons to Ukraine, bringing total military aid to $55.6 bln since the beginning of the war.

The slowing Chinese economy is leading to labor unrest in the country. Nikkei Asia reports that labor strikes in China rose 3% in H1 to 719 incidents, led by the construction and manufacturing sectors. This number is probably low, but the fact that workers are willing to take such risks is a testament to how dire the situation is becoming.

Japanese markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Mountain Day holiday. Further near-term yen and stock market volatility are likely.

Today's U.S. economic calendar is light with just the release of July Treasury Budget on the agenda. The market is anticipating a deficit of $242 bln, versus -$66 bln in June and -$228 bln a year ago. The ever-rising level of U.S. debt is an ongoing concern for investors with significant implications for Treasuries and the dollar.

Focus this week is on U.S. inflation data. July PPI comes out tomorrow with median expectations of +0.2% m/m and a drop to 2.2% y/y. July CPI data will be released on Wednesday. The market is expecting +0.2% m/m with the annualized rate holding steady at 3.0%. 


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$12.49 (+0.51%)

5-Day Change: +$32.37 (+1.34%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +29.64

Gold is trading higher for a third session with more than 78.6% of the early-August sell-off now retraced. The yellow metal is being buoyed by rate-cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical tensions as markets await U.S. inflation data this week.



Hotter-than-expected inflation readings could temper Fed easing expectations and ramp volatility yet again. If inflation comes in as expected or below expectations, the Fed will remain on track for up to a 50 bps rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Fed funds futures currently put the probability of a 25 bps cut at 52.5% and a 50 bps cut at 47.5%.

The underlying trend for gold remains bullish but be prepared for additional short-term choppy trade. The unwinding of yen carry trades factored into the volatility seen early last week and further unwinding remains a risk.

The BoJ only pledged to stall further tightening "when financial markets are unstable," but the writing is on the wall. The BoJ is on a tightening path and the Fed is on the verge of easing. The BoJ will announce policy on 20-Sep just two days before the next policy statement from the FOMC.

Fresh all-time highs in gold may be difficult before the CPI release. However, the closes last week back above the 20-day moving average, and today's upside follow-through all bode well for the bull camp.

The series of lower highs and higher lows that have emerged since the record high was set at $2,481.33 on 17-Jul is indicative of a symmetrical triangle. This chart formation is typically a continuation pattern within the dominant trend, so an eventual upside breakout is favored.

The 02-Aug high at  $2,474.58 marks initial resistance. A breach of this level would clear the way for a retest of $2,481.33. Beyond that $2,500.00/$2,503.27 would attract.

Initial support is defined by an intraday chart point at $2,440.37/$2,440.00. More substantial support is found at the 2424.62/$2,417.62, where today's overseas low, and Friday's low converge with the 20-day SMA.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.479 (+1.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.673 (+2.47%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +21.23

Silver is trading higher on the day, probing into the upper half of last week's range. While the white metal is garnering some support from a more bullish gold market, global growth risks continue to weigh.



On top of persistent worries about Chinese and U.S. growth, there are increasing concerns that waning economic confidence and weaker manufacturing orders could tip Germany back into a technical recession in Q3. Japan remains in a tenuous position as well. Worries about the four largest global economies do not bode well for industrial metals, which include silver.

Today's action may be short covering ahead of U.S. inflation data. A move back above $28 could trigger additional position squaring with potential at that point back to the 20-day moving average at $28.483.

However, I'd still like to see trades with a 29-handle to at least suggest the corrective low is in place. Such a move seems unlikely ahead of Wednesday's CPI report unless PPI comes in shockingly low.

Further out, the $30 level must be regained to return confidence to the longer-term uptrend and put the July high at $31.652 and the May high at $32.379 back in play. That seems unlikely without some significant change to global growth prospects, leaving the bears in control.

A more likely scenario is that a consolidative pattern emerges within the broad $32.379/$26.524 rage that developed over the past several months, particularly if haven buying can offset some of the demand-destruction-related selling. 

Initial support is noted at $27.703/681, which protects the overseas low at $27.255. The latter corresponds pretty closely with the halfway back point of the recent bounce.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Monday, August 12, 2024
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Gold Chart
 
U.S. calendar features Treasury Budget (-$242.0 bln expected).
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, August 9, 2024

8/9/2024

Gold and silver stabilize after Thursday's solid gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Ukraine continues to press its offensive within Russian territory. Fierce battles are reportedly underway in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

While Russia claimed the incursion was halted, reports from residents in the region suggest otherwise. Seemingly, Russia was caught completely off-guard by the offensive and is scrambling to respond.

Additionally, Russia's Lipetsk region has "been subjected to a massive [drone] attack” according to the regional governor there. A military airfield outside the city of Lipetsk appears to have been the target.

Recent seismic activity has prompted Japan to issue its first-ever megaquake advisory. A megaquake is defined as a magnitude 8 or higher, with the potential for significant structural damage and loss of life.

Wall Street had its best day since 2022 on Thursday, just days after its worst day for the same period. Yesterday's lower-than-expected initial jobless claims tempered labor market worries triggered by the July nonfarm payrolls miss, boosting sentiment.

However, I believe the optimism that was generated is overblown. The 3-month uptrend in initial and continuing claims remains intact, creating downside risk for August payrolls. Look for market volatility to remain elevated amid persistent uncertainty about inflation, growth risks, central bank policy, and the unwinding of yen carry trades.

Attention now turns to U.S. inflation data that comes out next week. The market is expecting a monthly rise of 0.2% for July PPI. Median expectations for July CPI are +0.2% m/m as well.

Ross Norman senses some frustration in the markets "that the higher-for-longer narrative is long beyond its sell-by date." Next week's data could intensify that frustration, or blow it up.

If inflation readings are hotter than expected, we could see some tempering of Fed rate cut expectations for September. That could lend itself to heightened market volatility on worries that the central bank is mismanaging efforts to orchestrate a soft landing.

Today's U.S. economic calendar is empty. We will hear FedSpeak from nonvoting KC Fed President Jeffrey Schmid this evening. Schmid is a centrist.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +3.80 (+0.16%)
5-Day Change: -$11.16 (-0.46%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +28.09

Gold notched its first higher close in six sessions on Thursday as risk appetite returned. While modest upside follow-through has been seen today, a close above $2,446.00 seems unlikely so we should see a lower weekly close.



Nonetheless, more than 50% of this week's decline has been retraced and gold has moved back within 2% of its all-time high. The yellow metal also registered a close back above the 20-day moving average yesterday, another bullish signal. A breach of the $2,434.29 Fibonacci level (61.8% retracement of the decline from last week's high) would lend additional credence to the long-term uptrend.

While risk appetite recovered in the latter half of the week, I suspect prudent investors who were rattled by this week's market plunge are adding gold to their portfolios as a hedge against ongoing risks. An easier dollar is providing some underpinning for gold as well.

A retreat below the 20-day SMA at $2,415.92 would favor further consolidation within the range. Today's overseas low at $2,417.83 bolsters this support area.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.046 (+0.17%)
5-Day Change: -$1.058 (-3.71%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +19.27

Silver saw a key reversal on Thursday, but upside follow-through today has been disappointing thus far. The white metal is poised for its 8th lower weekly close out of the last 12.



The trend since the 11-year high was established at $32.379 on 21-May remains bearish amid ongoing global growth worries. The 20-day moving average is now below both the 50- and 100-day SMAs.

A climb back above $29 is needed to ease pressure on the downside, but right now it's questionable whether silver can reclaim the 28-handle before renewed selling interest emerges.

On the downside, the $26.124/$26.049 area may still be a short-term attraction. This zone is defined by the low from 02-May and the 200-day moving average. The lows from earlier in the week at $26.571/524 provide a good intervening barrier.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Friday, August 9, 2024
Good morning. The precious metals are mixed in early U.S. trading.
 
Gold Chart
 
U.S. calendar features FedSpeak from Schmid.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Thursday, August 8, 2024

8/8/2024

Gold and silver firm intraday, helped by a weaker dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
: Market focus seems to have returned to Fed easing expectations after a BoJ official indicated yesterday that the central bank would not tighten further "when financial markets are unstable."

I suspect the BoJ is primarily concerned with price stability within Japan. If Japanese markets are relatively stable by the next BoJ meeting on September 19-20, they very well could resume their efforts to bring down inflation by hiking rates again.

With that in mind, unwinding of yen carry trades is likely to continue. Setbacks in the yen provide a more appealing opportunity to do so than when the Japanese currency is surging.

The next FOMC meeting will precede the BoJ meeting by two days. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 50 bps rate cut. This has caused U.S. yields and the dollar to soften today, providing a boost to risk appetite.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said this week's market volatility "was an overreaction of market forces in the conditions of uncertainty and thin market liquidity during holiday season, not so much due to issues arising from fundamentals of the economy."Barkin  Rehn also noted that the U.S. economy remains "relatively strong."

U.S. initial jobless claims were 233k in the week ended 03-Aug, below expectations of 240k, versus an upward revised 250k in the previous week. Continuing claims rose to 1,875k from 1,869k in the previous week.

Wholesale sales for June come out later this morning. Median expectations are +0.4%.

We'll also hear FedSpeak from Thomas Barkin. The Richmond Fed President is a moderate hawk.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$22.61 (+0.95%)

5-Day Change: -$37.47 (-1.53%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +26.49

Gold was unable to sustain yesterday's early gains and ended up notching a fifth consecutive lower daily close on Wednesday. The yellow metal is trading higher again today, but this time displaying better upside momentum, helped by a weaker dollar.



The breach of yesterday's high at $2,405.17 is an encouraging sign. Given that yesterday's low was slightly exceeded as well, we have an outside day.

Now let's see if gold can sustain gains for the remainder of the session. A higher close would be good. A close above $2,405.17 would constitute a key reversal and would be better yet, suggesting that the corrective low is in place at $2,369.10.

A breach of resistance at $2,416.86/$2,421.84 would put gold back above the 20-day moving average and into the upper half of Monday's range. This would be a positive technical signal as well, although short-term conditions are likely to remain choppy.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.348 (+1.31%)
5-Day Change: -$1.519 (-5.33%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.15

Silver has rebounded modestly after setting a fresh 13-week low in overseas trading. While the downside remains vulnerable amid global growth risks, a higher close after a new cycle low would be at least short-term bullish.



Yesterday's bearish pennant formation played out as expected, culminating with a retest of the $26.571 low. The chart looks a little more constructive today, but resistances at $27.254 (yesterday's high) and $27.492 (Tuesday's high) must be negated to favor a rebound into the upper half of Monday's range above $27.615.

Upticks are still likely to be viewed as selling opportunities within the medium-term downtrend off the May high at $32.379. Silver has fallen 18% since that high. With the 200-day moving average intact, we could still see the long-term uptrend re-exert itself.

It would take a move back above $29 to garner some confidence in such a call. Until then, choppy trade with a downside bias is most likely.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Wednesday, August 7, 2024

8/7/2024

Gold and silver higher on the day, but the downside remains vulnerable

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Dovish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida have calmed markets somewhat. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” said Uchida.

This diminishes immediate concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, but the relief is clearly meant to be temporary. The BoJ will do what it must to get Japan's inflation rate back to the 2% target.

The yen fell to new lows for the week, driving the USDJPY rate to an intraday high of 147.884. The rebound in the dollar has provided some relief for the precious metals and U.S. stocks are trading higher.

Israel continues to brace for a retaliatory strike from Iran and/or Iranian proxies. However, it's been nearly a week since Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran, presumably by Israel. A Washington Post article suggests intense political pressure focusing on the risks of miscalculation may be making Iran think twice about its reaction.

In the wake of Haniyeh's death, Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar as its new leader. Sinwar is said to have plotted the October 7th attack on Israel. Such a defiant move may negatively impact prospects for a cease-fire. Geopolitical risks will remain elevated in the region for the foreseeable future.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$8.21 (+0.34%)
5-Day Change: -$47.45 (-1.94%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +25.82

Gold is trading modestly higher, enjoying a little relief from recent deleveraging pressure thanks to dovish comments out of the BoJ. However, price action remains confined to the lower half of Monday's range.



If the BoJ is on hold for the time being, intending to stabilize markets, it might allow investors to reconsider the value of gold as a hedge against market uncertainty. A climb back into the upper half of Monday's range would offer some encouragement to the bull camp.

While price action in the first part of the week was quite negative, keep in mind that a challenge of the all-time high was just seen on Friday. Gold is currently trading just over 3% off that low. The total magnitude of the retreat from Friday's high to Monday's low is just over 4%.

Perhaps most importantly, the previous corrective low at $2,354.48 (25-Jul) remains well protected. As long as this level is intact, I expect gold to form a consolidative, continuation pattern (symmetrical triangle?) favoring an eventual upside breakout and new all-time highs.

A serious escalation of the situation in the Middle East would likely see safe-haven buying overwhelm any lingering deleveraging pressures, shifting focus back to the dominant uptrend. A  breach of resistance at $2,416.86/$2,421.84 would put gold decisively back in the upper half of this week's range and return a measure of confidence to the uptrend.

A violation of the overseas low at $2,382.00 would leave Monday's low at $2,369.10 vulnerable to a retest. The key support level I'm watching is the 25-Jul low at  $2,354.48.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.198 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: -$2.037 (-7.03%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +16.01

Silver remains consolidative at the low end of Monday's range. While intraday prices are higher, a second inside day (lower high, higher low) seems to be forming.



The white metal continues to be weighed by heightened growth risks in the world's two biggest economies, the U.S. and China. Silver is less impacted directly by the yen carry trade and less of a beneficiary of the safe-haven interest that has helped buoy gold comparatively.

The bottom line is that the downside remains vulnerable in silver. Upticks lack momentum and are likely to attract further selling interest.

First resistance is marked by the overseas high at $27.254. Secondary resistance is defined by yesterday's high at $27.492. The midpoint of Monday's range is $27.615.

While silver is presently trading higher on the day, a bearish pennant is evident on the hourly chart. A lower close today must be considered, which would set up a retest of Monday's low at $26.571.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Gold Chart
 
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