Blog posts tagged with 'gold'

7/29/2024

Gold and silver fail to sustain overseas gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel is blaming Iran-backed Hezbollah for a weekend rocket attack on the Golan Heights that killed 12 children on a soccer pitch. Israel is expected to retaliate escalating risks of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Israel struck an area in Gaza on Saturday that included a school where Hamas militants were reportedly operating. There were civilian casualties including children.

Cease-fire talks continued in Rome on Sunday. However, Israeli PM Netanyahu vowed "total victory" over Hamas in a fiery speech before a joint session of Congress last week.

U.S. economic data at the end of last week prompted a recovery on Wall Street. PCE data released on Friday broadly supported expectations that the Fed will begin easing in September. Equity futures are indicating upside follow-through to start the new week.

The FOMC will hold a two-day meeting beginning tomorrow. Policy will be announced on Wednesday. While no change is anticipated, the statement – and eventually the minutes (21-Aug) – may provide some clues as to the central bank's intentions for the remainder of the year.

BoJ policy will be announced tomorrow. Rising expectations for another rate hike helped boost the yen further off its multi-decade low last week.

The BoE also meets this week, and the policy decision is more of a toss-up. The latest Reuters survey is leaning toward a cut, but markets are only pricing in a 50% chance of easier policy.

The U.S. calendar is light today with just the Dallas Fed Index, which is expected to narrow modestly from -15.1 in June. 


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +5.48 (+0.23%)
5-Day Change: -$7.33 (-0.31%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +24.20

Gold ticked back above $2,400 in overseas trading, perhaps benefitting from a bit of a haven bid associated with the latest worries of a wider Middle East conflict. The yellow metal remains narrowly confined at the high end of last Thursday's range with weak upside momentum.

  
Today's action has seen tests back above the 20-day moving average, but intraday upticks have proven unsustainable thus far. A close above this indicator at $2,394.96 would be mildly encouraging. However, the more important close-in level I'm watching is $2,400.70/$2,403.05, where last Thursday's high corresponds closely with the 38.2% retracement level of the decline off the $2,481.63 record high from 17-Jul.

A breach of $2,400.70/$2,403.05 would shift focus to $2,418.06 (50% retrace) initially. Beyond that, $2,430.89/$2,433.06 (24-Jul high and 61.8% retrace) would attract.

Fresh intraday lows below $2,387.36 would leave the 50-day moving average ($2,359.34 today) vulnerable to further challenges. Gold tested below this indicator on Thursday and Friday last week, but was unable to close below it.

Gold ETFs saw 9.8 tonnes of net inflows last week. It was the sixth consecutive week of net inflows suggesting investors in all regions were buying into the correction. North America accounted for more than half of the net inflows. 

Gold ETF Flows by Region

Sources: Bloomberg, Company Filings, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

Further evidence of buying interest comes from the latest COT report, which saw speculative net futures positions increase by 18.3k contracts last week to 273.1k contracts. That's the highest since November of 2022 when gold set a low of $1,617.06 which ended up being the third low of a triple bottom.

CFTC Gold speculative net positions

That being said, the market is very long. If gold doesn't rally out of this area, long liquidations could have rather bearish implications. Persistent weakness in silver remains a concern.

China Gold Association reported H1 gold production of 180 tonnes, up 1% over H1 2023. Gold consumption fell 5.6% y/y to 523.8 tonnes, weighed primarily by poor consumer sentiment that led to a sharp drop in jewelry buying.

Jewelry demand plummeted 26.8% to 270 tonnes. However, those same worries about the economy caused bar and coin demand to surge 46% to 213.6 tonnes.

“There are very limited choices in asset preservation due to capital control and the lack of investment options,” Gary Ng, senior economist with Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, told the South China Morning Post.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.221(+0.79%)
5-Day Change: -$1.054 (-3.62%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +19.66

Silver remains defensive, having proven unable to sustain overseas gains. Last week's low at $27.524 has been exceeded, establishing new 11-week lows.



Concerns about the health of the Chinese economy are the biggest fundamental factor weighing on the commodities sector. In the wake of the Third Plenary Session, there is growing concern that the recent economic turmoil will lead to greater government controls.

Downside potential is initially to the $27.404 Fibonacci level (78.6% retrace of the rally from $26.049 to $32.379). A breach of that level would leave the $26.049 low from 02-May vulnerable to a challenge.

Perhaps not surprisingly, speculative net long positions in silver declined last week by 9.7k contracts to 51.1k. That's the lowest long positioning since the week ended 29-Mar.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions

A short-term close back above the 100-day moving average ($28.508 today) would take at least a little pressure off the downside. However, I still think $30 needs to be regained to re-instill confidence in the longer-term uptrend. And that level keeps getting further and further away.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

7/26/2024

Gold recovers somewhat ahead of the weekend, but silver remains defensive 

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: U.S. stocks are recovering somewhat from sharp losses earlier in the week, buoyed by recent U.S. data which are boosting confidence that the Fed will successfully orchestrate a soft landing. Arguably this has only happened once (1994-1995) in the past 60 years so the odds are probably against them.

Stock market weakness yesterday overshadowed positive U.S. growth news. Q2 advanced GDP came in at +2.8%, well above market expectations. While the U.S. economy continues to look resilient, the trade is increasingly worried about growth risks in China.

China's NDRC announced a new 'cash for clunkers' program on Thursday.  The latest effort to stimulate the lagging economy will focus directly on consumers by dedicating 150 bln yuan ($20.7 bln) to the replacement of old cars, appliances, bicycles, and other goods. 

The U.S. PCE price index – the Fed's favored measure of inflation – ticked up 0.1% in June, but the annualized rate dipped to 2.5%, from 2.6% in May. Core inflation rose 0.2% m/m, holding steady at 2.6% y/y.

Personal income rose 0.2% in June, below expectations of +0.4%, versus a negative revised +0.4% in May (was +0.5%). PCE came in at +0.3%, in line with expectations, versus an upward revised +0.4% in May (was +0.2%).

While more aggressive Fed rate cut bets are being pared, the market is still pricing in two cuts this year beginning in September. The probability that the Fed funds rate will be 25 to 50 bps lower after the September FOMC meeting stands at 99.6%.

With Fed easing widely anticipated to begin in September and the BoJ expected to tighten again next week, the market is reassessing a wide array of leveraged bets based on the yen carry trade. This is contributing to broader market volatility.



The USD-JPY rate slid to a two-month low on Thursday of 151.946, more than 6% off the multi-decade high set early in July at 161.948. The 200-day moving average has come within striking distance.

While it's premature to suggest the yen has reversed, the technical picture has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks. Narrowing interest rate differentials with the U.S. and the ongoing threat of direct BoJ intervention in support of the yen definitely have markets on edge. 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$8.44 (+0.36%)
5-Day Change: -$22.64 (-0.94%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +23.01

Gold has stabilized somewhat after Thursday's sharp sell-off to a two-week low of $2,354.48. While the yellow metal is higher on the day, price action remains confined to yesterday's range.

 

Gold appears poised for a second-consecutive lower weekly close with last week's close at $2,400.39 seemingly out of reach today. The 20-day moving average is at $2,391.68 and has come within striking distance today. I'd consider a close back above the 20-day as moderately encouraging.

While gold probed below the 50-day moving average yesterday and earlier today, this indicator remains intact on a close basis. Yesterday's low at $2,354.48 reinforces chart support noted in yesterday's commentary at $2,355.03/$2,352.28.

If this level were to give way, gold would be vulnerable to the next Fibonacci level at $2,329.15. Below that, the June lows at $2,295.86 and $2,287.64 would be back in play.

With silver still very much on the ropes, gold bulls need to be cautious here. I'd need to see the yellow metal move decisively back above $2,400 to set a more favorable short-term tone, which is likely predicated on more favorable price action in silver.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.079 (+0.27%)
5-Day Change: -$1.440 (-4.93%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +15.78

Silver remains defensive below $28 in the wake of yesterday's 3.7% plunge. Baring a miraculous rebound, the white metal will notch a third consecutive lower weekly close.



Silver has closed lower in nine of the last eleven sessions. Over that period, the white metal has tumbled below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, leaving focus squarely on the downside.

While silver has been leading the charge lower, weighed by mounting growth risks in China, a rebound in gold could provide some underpinning to the market. I still think silver needs to recapture the $30 level to really reinvigorate the bulls. However, incremental gains above $28.476 (100-day SMA) and $29.00 would offer some encouragement along the way.

Yesterday's low at $27.524 now offers intervening support ahead of the $27.404 Fibonacci level (78.6% retrace of the rally from $26.049 to $32.379). An eventual penetration of the latter would leave the $26.049 low from 02-May vulnerable to a challenge.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

7/25/2024

Gold and silver weighed by China concerns

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Biden spoke to the nation last night saying, “I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation." He didn't provide any information about what prompted his decision to drop out of the race. Was it his health? Was it the diminished prospects for victory after his debate performance? Was it pressure from within his own party? It likely was all of those things.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered a fiery speech before a joint session of Congress yesterday, vowing "total victory" over Hamas. Despite global protests and international diplomatic pressure, Netanyahu remains committed to the destruction of Hamas.

Netanyahu is supposed to meet separately with President Biden and VP Harris today. Donald Trump said on Truth Social that he would meet with Netanyahu on Friday.

China's central bank unexpectedly cut its MLF rate by 20 bps to 2.30%. The PBoC also injected 235.1 bln yuan into markets through a reverse repo operation.

However, markets reacted negatively, reading the urgency of this week's PBoC operations as evidence that growth risks in China are greater than previously perceived. Deflation and slower growth in the world's second-largest economy have far-reaching global implications. That seems to be manifesting most notably in commodity and equity markets this week.

Chinese leaders announced their optimistic Third Plenum policy goals on Thursday but provided no details on how they might be achieved. China is on the verge of deflation and possibly a debt crisis. Gordon G. Chang worries that China's having its 2008 financial crisis at the worst possible time.

Major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Wednesday. The Nasdaq lost 3.6%, its biggest daily decline since October 2022. The S&P 500 ended the day with a 2.3% decline, its worst single-day performance since December 2022. U.S. shares are under pressure again today.

U.S. Q2 Advance GDP came in at 2.8%, well above expectations of 1.9%, versus 1.4% in Q1. The beat was attributed to a solid 2.3% rise in consumption.

Better-than-expected growth in the U.S. somewhat tempers the rising concerns about China. One might also imagine that today's GDP print decreases the urgency for the Fed to start easing, yet the market is still pricing in a September rate cut. 

U.S. durable orders plunged 6.6% in June, well below expectations of +0.6%, versus +0.1% in May. A huge 20.5% in transportation orders (most notably aircraft) is the reason. The ex-transportation reading was +0.5%.  

GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$17.02 (-0.71%)
5-Day Change: -$80.36 (-3.29%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +22.08

Gold tumbled to 2-week lows after failing to sustain Wednesday's gains. Mounting concerns about the Chinese economy are negatively impacting global markets broadly.



The overseas breach of Monday's low at $2,385.50 also constituted a violation of the 20-day moving average and likely triggered stops.

The yellow metal has completed a 61.8% retracement of the rally from $2,287.64 (07-Jun low) to $2,481.63 (17-Jul high). The $2,361.74 Fibonacci level corresponds closely with the 50-day moving average at $2,360.62.

One might expect gold to garner support from safe-haven interest, but sometimes deleveraging pressures must play out first. Gold and silver are components of just about every commodity fund and ETF. As investors exit commodities they are invariably selling gold and silver as well.

Minor chart support is noted at $2,355.03 down to $2,352.28. Penetration of this area would leave gold vulnerable to the next Fibonacci level at $2,329.15. Below that, the June lows at $2,295.86 and $2,287.64 would be back in play.

First resistance is defined by intraday chart points around $2,375.00. The halfway back point of today's range is at $2,381.23. However, $2,397.98/$2,400.70 needs to be regained to set a more positive short-term tone.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.915 (-3.17%)
5-Day Change: -$2.298 (-7.70%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +14.32

Silver extended losses in overseas trading to negate key support at $28.618 (26-Jun low). Stops were triggered pushing the white metal through the 100-day moving average at $28.442 to a new 11-week low of $27.524.



Silver is being dragged lower with the rest of the commodities complex amid rising growth risks in China. While the U.S. economy still looks healthy based on today's advanced Q2 GDP print, China is the second-largest global economy and our third-largest trading partner.

The silver market has retreated almost exactly 15% since establishing an 11-year high at $32.379 on 21-May. The market remains decisively in a corrective mode.

While the market is presently trading off the lows, the downside remains vulnerable. The next significant support level I'm watching is $27.404 (78.6% retrace of the rally from $26.049 to $32.379). Today's earlier low at $27.524 makes a good intervening barrier.

Intraday resistance is noted at $27.990/$28.032. The halfway back point of today's decline comes in at $28.232. It would probably take a rebound above $29 to re-instill some measure of optimism in the bull camp.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

7/24/2024

Gold and silver trade higher for a second session

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Biden is expected to address the Nation from the Oval Office this evening. He presumably will be talking about his decision to not seek reelection.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in DC and will address a joint session of Congress this afternoon in hopes of shoring up support for Israel's ongoing war against Hamas. He will likely receive a mixed reaction, with some Democrats planning to boycott the event. Netanyahu's visit has triggered protests that have already resulted in hundreds of arrests.

Netanyahu is scheduled to meet separately with President Biden and VP Harris on Thursday. He may meet with former President Trump as well.

Eurozone composite PMIs fell to 5-month lows. Weakness in both manufacturing and services lends credence to expectations that the ECB will cut rates again in September.

UK PMIs on the other hand came in strong. Manufacturing PMI rose to a 24-month high of 51.8. Services PMI reached a 2-month high of 52.4. This supports forecasts that suggest the BoE will remain on hold in August.

U.S. PMIs were a bit of a mixed bag: Manufacturing PMI tumbled to a 7-month low of 49.5 in July, versus 51.6 in June. It was the first sub-50 print this year. Services PMI rose to 56.0, versus 55.3 in June.

In a Bloomberg opinion piece, former NY Fed President Dudley said the Fed should cut rates at next week's meeting.  Dudley warned that it may already be too late to "fend off a recession" implying that the Fed is behind the curve.

While Dudley's comments nudged July rate cut potential up to 6.7%, I believe the Fed will hold steady next week. Barring any upside surprises in inflation data leading up to the September FOMC meeting, that's when the Fed's easing campaign is most likely to commence. Fed funds futures have that fully priced in at this point.

The U.S. Advanced Goods Trade deficit narrowed to $96.8 bln in June, inside expectations of -$98.0 bln, versus a revised -$99.4 bln in May (was -$100.6 bln). The deficit remains on a narrowing path from the -$121.2 bln all-time wide in March of 2022.

U.S. new home sales rose 0.617M in June, below expectations of +0.643M, versus a revised +0.621M in May. This is the slowest pace since November as high mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$4.91 (+0.20%)
5-Day Change: -$36.44 (-1.48%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +26.23

Gold is trading higher for a second session buoyed by some risk-off sentiment in stocks and a weaker dollar. More than 38.2% of the decline from last week's record high at $2,481.63 has already been retraced, lending credence to a challenge of the 50% retracement level at $2,433.56.



Corrective action in gold has been limited by strong expectations that the Fed will begin easing in September. Two rate cuts are widely anticipated for this year. 

Treasury yields are under pressure today, which has pushed the dollar index to new lows for the week. The softer dollar is helping to underpin gold as well.

Elon Musk took to X yesterday and warned that the dollar is heading for "destruction" and that the soaring $35 trillion national debt could "bankrupt" the U.S. While interest rate differentials are likely to support the dollar comparatively in the medium term, the longer-term trend is decisively bearish, providing a tailwind for gold as a means to preserve wealth. 

A recent Mining.com article highlighted gaps between consumer gold demand and mined production in some countries.


Data source: World Gold Council, tabulated by The Gold Bullion Company

Consumer demand in India, China, Turkey, and the U.S. exceeds production, meaning that demand needs to be satisfied with supply from elsewhere. Q1 data from the WGC shows global demand of 1.101.9 tonnes and the sum of mine production and recycled gold at 1,243.8 tonnes. That's just shy of a 13% surplus.

India is the world's second-largest consumer of gold but does not produce much. India's cut of import duties on gold to 6% from 15% and expectations for an above-average monsoon could boost demand and support the price.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.079 (+0.27%)
5-Day Change: -$0.947 (-3.12%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +25.19

Silver eked out a higher close on Tuesday as I had hoped, ending the series of lower closes at four. Modest upside follow-through is being seen today, but momentum remains lackluster.



I still think silver needs to regain $30 to encourage the bull camp and shake out some of the shorts. More important resistance is marked by the 20- and 50-day moving averages that now come in at $30.141 and $30.209 respectively. Such a move seems unlikely today, so let's see if there's additional upside follow-through on Thursday.

Failure to close higher today would suggest that the downside and important support at $28.618 remains vulnerable to challenges. Yesterday's low at $28.723 reinforces this level.

Data from China's National Energy Administration show that 23.3 GW of solar energy was installed in June, +36% y/y. More than 100 GW of solar capacity was added in H1, +31% versus H1-23. In addition, global electricity demand is forecast to increase by approximately 4% this year according to the International Energy Agency. The comprehensive supply/demand dynamic for silver remains broadly supportive suggesting the recent price decline is corrective.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

7/23/2024

Gold rebounds modestly while silver remains defensive

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Democrats have rallied behind Kamala Harris as their presumptive nominee. She has reportedly secured the support of enough delegates to clinch that nomination, but it's still nearly 4 weeks until the DNC and I would categorize the situation as fluid. The fact that Harris raised a record-setting $81 million yesterday is further evidence of coalescing support.

There has been speculation that President Biden's health is deteriorating rapidly, stoking concerns that he won't be able to complete his term. Political uncertainty remains high.

Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle has resigned after yesterday's relentless grilling before Congress.

Recent U.S. political turmoil has had little impact on the greenback. The dollar index edged to a 7-session high in overseas trading but remains just about the midpoint of this year's range. 

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos hinted at a September rate cut as inflationary pressures continue to moderate. ECB projections see inflation falling to their 2.0% target in Q4. The euro slid to an 8-session low providing some lift for the dollar.

The Richmond Fed Index tumbled to a 4-year low of -17 in June, versus -10 in May. Prices paid moderated to 3.00%, down from 3.58% in May. Prices received fell to 1.31% from 2.35%. Cooling prices and an uptick in contraction risks arguably lend credence to Sep rate cut expectations.

The Philly Fed Services Index plunged to -19.1 in July. That's a 4-year low right after hitting a 2-year high of 2.9 in June. Weakness in business activity was broad-based. Employment fell to -4.9. Prices paid rose 30.4 from 24.4. "Everything is so broken," quipped Zerohedge on X.

U.S. existing home sales fell 5.4% to 3.890M in June, below expectations of 3.990M, versus 4.110M in May. The sales trend remains right around the 13-year low from 2010 as mortgage rates continue to pose a considerable headwind.

The median sale price rose 2.33% to a record high $426,900. That price is above new home prices for the first time since COVID and the price differential is at a new record.


GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$11.28 (+0.47%)
5-Day Change: -$61.27 (-2.48%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +25.16

Gold has rebounded modestly from the last four sessions of losses. While upside momentum has not been terribly impressive, bulls can be encouraged by the fact that the yellow metal has held above the 20-day moving average.



Support marked by the halfway back point of the most recent leg-up at $2,384.64 was approached yesterday but remains intact. This level is now reinforced by yesterday's low at $2,385.50.

So far today, price action has been contained by yesterday's range. A breach of yesterday's high at $2,411.65 would encourage the bulls and likely shake out some of the shorts. Secondary resistance is at $2,433.56 which is defined by the 50% retracement level of the decline off last week's record high at $2,481.63.

India slashed import duties on gold and silver today to 6% from 15% ostensibly to help reduce smuggling. The move is likely to boost retail demand in India, which is the second-largest consumer of gold behind China. Jewelry demand in particular has been stymied by record-high prices.

The move is not without cost as it will likely cause India's trade deficit to widen and put additional pressure on the rupee. The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar of 83.69 after stocks slid on a proposed hike to capital gain taxes.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: -$0.053 (-0.18%)
5-Day Change: -$2.191 (-7.01%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +23.41

Silver remains defensive, having set a new 4-week low at $28.723 in overseas trading. However, the previous corrective low from 26-Jun at $28.618 remains intact thus far.



Silver hasn't recorded 5 consecutive lower closes since December, so I'm cautiously optimistic that the existing oversold condition will generate a little short covering today. But even if the white metal manages to close above $29.122 the downside remains vulnerable.

I'd like to see silver climb back above $30 to ease pressure on the downside. The 20- and 50-day moving averages at $30.103 and $30.212 respectively are arguably the more important short-term levels to be watching.

If support at $28.618 gives way, the 100-day moving average at $28.358 would be vulnerable to a test. Below the latter, $28.00 and $27.404 would be in play.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.ZanerPreciousMetals.com
www.TornadoBullion.com
X: @GrantOnGold
X: @ZanerMetals
Facebook: @ZanerPreciousMetals

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

7/22/2024

Gold and silver remain defensive for fourth consecutive session

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Biden announced on Sunday that he would not seek reelection. This comes less than a month before the DNC and just over 100 days ahead of the general election.

Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris and she is considered the front-runner for the top of the Democratic Party ticket. However, a fair amount of uncertainty remains as Ms. Harris is not particularly popular. The Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison promised "a transparent and orderly process to move forward.”

China's PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps to 1.7%. It was the first reduction in nearly a year and came as a bit of a surprise. In addition, 10 bps cuts were made by Chinese banks to their 5-year and 1-year prime loan rates. The yuan dropped in reaction.

The moves comes on the heels of weaker-than-expected Q2 economic data last week. China is trying to stimulate the economy and get back on track to achieve its 2024 growth target of 5%. That may be a challenge without more direct stimulus.

Today's U.S. economic calendar is light with just the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The index fell to 0.05 in June, versus a revised 0.23 in May. According to the report, "Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and three categories made negative contributions in June."


Focus this week falls on Friday's PCE data for June, most notably the chain price index. The Fed's favored measure of inflation is expected to come in unchanged which would further heighten expectations for a September rate cut. The FOMC meets next week, with steady policy expected for July.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$6.38 (+0.27%)
5-Day Change: -$26.63 (-1.10%)
YTD Range: $1,986.16 - $2,481.63
52-Week Range: $1,812.39 - $2,481.63
Weighted Alpha: +24.28

Gold rose modestly in Asian trading on the Biden news but gains could not be sustained. Some short-term technical damage was done to the chart last week when new record highs were followed by a lower daily close and a lower weekly close.



With minor chart support at $2,394.20 (12-Jul low) now negated, the halfway back point of the most recent leg-up at $2,384.64 is vulnerable to a test. Below that, $2,371.16 (11-Jul low) protects the 61.8% retracement level at $2,361.74.

At this point, losses are still considered to be corrective. Gold hasn't seen four consecutive lower closes since February. A close above $2,400.39 today would prevent that. A move back above today's overseas high at $2,411.65 would offer some encouragement to the bull camp.

Gold ETFs saw their fifth consecutive weekly net inflows last week, led by North American and European interest. Net inflows were 11.1 tonnes (~$913M). Global AUM rose to $243 bln.

Gold ETF flows by region

The latest COMEX long positioning data as of 16-Jul saw gold interest jump to 897.39 tonnes. Market sentiment based on the COT remains broadly supportive.

Comex Net Long Positioning

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CDT: +$0.168 (+0.55%)
5-Day Change: -$1.824 (-5.95%)
YTD Range: $21.945 - $32.379
52-Week Range: $20.704 - $32.379
Weighted Alpha: +22.12

Silver remains on the defensive, trading lower for a fourth consecutive session. The white metal hasn't seen four consecutive lower daily closes since January.



While it seems unlikely silver will close higher today (above $29.215), the oversold condition has thus far prevented a true test of important support at $28.618 (26-Jun low). With this level intact, the medium and longer-term trends are still neutral to favorable.

A rebound above $30 is needed to lend some encouragement to the bull camp. The overseas high at $29.420 and Friday's high at $29.835 offer intervening barriers.

The COT report for silver shows net speculative long positions as of 16-Jul were steady at 61.1k contracts versus the previous week. While that's somewhat encouraging, based on last week's price action I suspect next week's COT data will reflect a deterioration of sentiment.

CFTC Silver Speculative Net Positions

If support at $28.818 gives way, it will likely trigger some stops with initial potential to challenge the 100-day moving average at $28.302. Below the latter, $28.00 and $27.404 would be the levels to watch.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
Tornado Precious Metals Solutions by Zaner
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
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