Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Gold consolidates around the midpoint of the range

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel and Iran appear to be honoring the ceasefire agreement. While some degree of unease persists, oil below $65 is indicative of a market that is optimistic that the truce will hold. Investors remain tilted toward risk-on. The S&P is near record highs.

Reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may now allow President Trump to focus on the ongoing war in Ukraine. Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, where continued access to U.S. weapons will certainly be discussed.

Meanwhile, NATO members agreed to more than double defense spending, from 2% of GDP to 5%. This is a big win for President Trump as it reduces America's defense burden. Leaders, including President Trump, also reaffirmed their commitment to the central tenet of the alliance, “that an attack on one is an attack on all.”

Fed Chairman Powell is back on The Hill today to testify before the Senate. While inflation has cooled lately, the Fed is on hold amid ongoing worries that tariffs pose price risks. 

"We should start to see this over the summer, in the June number and the July number...If we don't we are perfectly open to the idea that the pass-through (to consumers) will be less than we think, and if we do that will matter for policy," Powell told the House on Tuesday.

The market seemed to read that as "so you're saying there's a chance," reflecting some level of optimism that trade deals will get worked out, and/or tariff costs won't be passed along to consumers. Prospects for a July rate cut have risen more than 10% over the past week, although it's still a long shot at 22.7%.

Fed funds futures continue to fully price a 25 bps cut for October. The implied Fed funds rate for year-end is 3.7825%, pricing nearly 60 bps in easing between now and then, suggesting that the market perceives heightened growth risks later in the year.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.1% last week, versus -2.6% in the previous week. Purchases fell 0.4%, while refis jumped 3.0%. The 30-year mortgage rate edged up to 6.88% from 6.84%.

New Home Sales plunged 17.3% to a 623k pace in May, below expectations of 693k, versus a negative revised 722k in April (was 743k). 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$1.01 (+0.03%)
5-Day Change: -$50.62 (-1.50%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +41.62

Gold is consolidating recent losses above $3,300 as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, underpining risk appetite. Heightened easing expectations and a weak dollar are providing some support.



The yellow metal is trading right around the midpoint of the range that has been in place since mid-May, and straddling the 50-day moving average. Support at $3,297.69 (9-Jun low) successfully contained the downside on Monday, providing some encouragement for the bull camp.

A rebound above the 20-day MA at $3,355.56 would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.00/01.45 and keep the technical bias tilted in favor of the dominant uptrend. Good resistance marked by last week's high at $3,449.13 protects the record high around $3,500.00.

If the yellow metal is unable to hold above $3,300, further consolidation in the lower half of the range becomes likely. Focus would shift initially to the $3,251.28 low from 29-May.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.175 (-0.49%)
5-Day Change: -$0.967 (-2.63%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +25.06

Silver has retraced all of Tuesday's losses and is now higher on the week. The white metal is being supported by an uptick in rate cut expectations and a generally soft dollar.

 

While silver is still more than 3% off the 13-year high set last week at $37.288, the failure to sustain corrective losses below the 20-day moving average and the subsequent rebound above $36 are encouraging to the underlying uptrend. A new high for the week above $36.351 would bode well for further tests above $37.

The February 2012 high at $37.430 is bolstered by last week's high at $37.288. A push through this area is needed to perpetuate the uptrend and shift focus to my next Fibonacci objective at $38.750. Beyond that, $40 would attract.

On the downside, keep an eye on the 20-day MA. Tuesday's low at $35.369 now protects the previous high at $34.853. Penetration of the latter would favor a deeper correction toward $33.988/949, where the 50-day MA corresponds with 38.2% retracement of the most recent leg higher.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold slides on Israel/Iran ceasefire optimism

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: President Trump announced yesterday afternoon that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would take effect over 24 hours. Since then, both combatants have accused the other of violating the terms of the deal, and Trump expressed his displeasure.

Nonetheless, markets are optimistic about de-escalating Middle East tensions. Oil prices have tumbled, and risk assets are back in vogue. 

Fed Chairman Powell is on The Hill today, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. His prepared remarks highlight that the central bank remains on hold as members “wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy.”

Recent hints from Bowman or Waller that July is in play for a cut haven't gained much traction in the market. Fed funds futures continue to price the first 25 bps cut in October with a second in December. There will be additional FedSpeak from Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr, and Schmid today.

The current account deficit blew out to a record wide -$450.2 bln in Q1. This was largely driven by a surge in the goods deficit stemming from tariff front-running early in the year. This is contributing to pressure on the dollar, driving the dollar index back within striking distance of the three-year low set last week.

Current Account deficit surged 44.3% to a record-wide -$450.2 bln in Q1, inside expectations of -$452.2 bln, versus a revised -$312.0 bln in Q4'24 (was -$303.9 bln).

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-city) rose 0.7% to a record high 341.5 in April,  versus 339.0 in March. The pace of gains slowed to 3.4% y/y from 4.1%.

FHFA Home Price Index declined 0.4% in April to 434.9 from 436.7 in March.

Consumer Confidence fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, below expectations of 99.8, versus a revised 98.4 in May (was 98.0). 

Richmond Fed Index rose 2 points to -7 in June, in line with expectations, versus -9 in May. It was the fourth straight negative print. There have only been three positive prints since May 2022.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$14.48 (-1.28%)
5-Day Change: -$43.28 (-2.45%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +40.88

Gold is under pressure as optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Iran stoked risk appetite. The yellow metal traded briefly below $3,300 as safe-haven interest faded.



At this point, support at $3,297.69 (9-Jun low) remains intact, leaving gold right around the midpoint of the range that has dominated since mid-May. Renewed weakness in the dollar is helping to underpin the yellow metal.

I'm watching the 50- and 20-day moving averages on a close basis today, which are at $3,324.34 and $3,352.68. The latter seems out of reach, but a close above the 50-day would keep gold in the upper half of the range and be modestly encouraging for the bull camp.

A rebound above the 20-day would bode well for renewed tests above $3,400.00/01.45 and keep the technical bias is favor of the dominant uptrend. Good resistance marked by last week's high at $3,449.13 protects the record high around $3,500.00.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions in the Middle East will remain elevated. President Trump is on his way to a NATO summit in The Hague. He will likely be lauded briefly for his success with Iran (assuming the ceasefire holds), before focus shifts to the elusive ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine.

If support at $3,299.77/97.69 gives way, focus will shift to secondary support at $3,251.28 (29-May low). I suspect buying interest will build ahead of the latter.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.020 (-0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$1.706 (-4.59%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +23.38

Silver reached a three-week low of $35.369 in early U.S. trading, weighed by the sharp losses in gold. The retreat in oil prices provided some additional pressure to the broader commodities market. However, renewed weakness in the dollar offset some of those pressures.



While white metal has traded lower in four of the last five sessions, the magnitude of the drop is well within expectations and is therefore considered corrective in nature. The 23.6% Fibonacci level at $35.225 has successfully contained the downside thus far. Additionally, the 20-day moving average was briefly penetrated, but the market seems likely to close above that indicator.

New highs for the week above $36.351 would constitute more than 50% retracement of the recent setback and restore a level of confidence to the underlying bull trend. After all, silver set new 13-year highs just last week.  

A retreat below the old high at $34.853 would suggest scope for a deeper correction into the previous range. At that point, the $33.949/915 level would be the likely attraction, where the next significant tier of Fibonacci support corresponds with the 50-day MA. 


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

6/23/2025

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS:
 

• President Trump's decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities marked a pivotal moment in U.S. foreign policy, aiming to eliminate a growing nuclear threat and restore regional deterrence. By dismantling key sites, the mission known as "Operation Midnight Hammer" dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and created an opening for long-term Middle East stability.
• Despite multiple chances for diplomacy, Iran remained defiant, continuing enrichment and provoking conflict through proxies. The coordinated U.S.-Israeli operation not only crippled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but also weakened its military posture and silenced several militant groups aligned with Tehran.
• Though critics warned of escalating war, the strikes may have prevented one by removing a looming threat. President Trump’s actions showed a decisive break from past policies of delay, reinforcing U.S. credibility while offering Iran a final chance to choose peace over nuclear escalation.
• Oil prices surged following the U.S. bombing of Iran, raising concerns that Tehran might try to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route. While such a move could spike prices, it would also hurt Iran’s own economy and deepen its conflict with the U.S.

GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.69 (-0.0205%)
5-Day Change: -$9.59 (-0.52%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +45.01

Gold opened slightly lower than Friday's close at $3,367.60 then had a brief spike in the early hours of today's trading session. 




Gold prices inched higher on Monday as geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel stirred safe-haven demand, though gains were capped by a rising U.S. dollar. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,369.80 an ounce, while U.S. futures held steady just above $3,385.

The dollar’s 0.6% climb made gold more expensive for international buyers, limiting its upward momentum. Analysts say that while gold remains supported by global uncertainty, a new record high is unlikely in the short term due to a potentially delayed Fed rate cut and stronger dollar.

The situation escalated as Iran threatened retaliation following U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, with President Trump hinting at possible regime change. Iran’s warning and missile exchanges with Israel added to investor anxiety heading into a week filled with economic reports and commentary from the Federal Reserve.

Gold remains supported by its 20-day EMA near $3,350 and trades within an ascending triangle pattern, hinting at potential volatility ahead. A sustained move above $3,500 could open the door to $3,550 and $3,600, while a break below $3,245 would signal weakness toward $3,200 or lower.

SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.135 (+0.375%)
5-Day Change: -$0.110 (-0.73%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +27.19

Silver is consolidating near the $36.00 level, struggling to break above key technical resistance at $36.31 amid cautious market sentiment and a stronger U.S. dollar. This resistance has limited bullish momentum despite rising geopolitical tensions that usually support safe-haven assets like silver.


 

Silver faces opposing pressures from escalating geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which keeps the U.S. dollar strong and reduces appetite for non-yielding metals. As a result, silver has remained range-bound, with investors hesitant to push prices higher without clearer economic or risk signals.

Looking ahead, markets await important PMI data for further direction, while ongoing Middle East developments continue to add uncertainty. Until these catalysts emerge, silver is expected to trade within a narrow range between roughly $35.60 and $36.45, with key technical levels around $35.86 and $36.31 acting as support and resistance.

Iranian lawmakers have threatened to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz after U.S. forces joined Israeli strikes on Tehran’s nuclear sites. This narrow waterway is crucial for global energy supplies, with about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through it daily, making any disruption a serious threat to global markets and energy prices.

While some analysts see the closure threat as a bargaining chip and a distant possibility due to Iran’s economic dependence on the strait, others warn it could provoke a swift and strong military response from the U.S. Iranian naval tactics, including swarms of small boats and potential use of mines, add complexity to the risk. Despite the saber-rattling, tanker traffic remains normal for now, though oil prices have risen amid fears of disruption.

Thomas Garland 
Vice President
Zaner Metals LLC
312-205-7906 Direct/Text
tgarland@zanermetals.com
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold poised for lower weekly close on resilient risk appetite and firmer dollar

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes a week into the conflict as President Trump opened a two-week window to find a diplomatic solution. “I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” according to a statement from President Trump.

The U.S. joining the fight on the side of Israel would be a major escalation. Nonetheless, the two-week reprieve and talks between Iran and European diplomats in Geneva have prompted a rebound in risk appetite.

President Trump continues to take Fed Chairman Powell to task for failing to cut interest rates. “Europe had 10 cuts, and we had none. And I guess he’s a political guy, I don’t know. He’s a political guy who’s not a smart person, but he’s costing the country a fortune,” Trump said.

While "uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished," according to Powell, it "remains elevated." That uncertainty is reflected in the wide dispersion on the dot plot.

Powell acknowledged the recent good inflation prints, but believes it can take some time for tariffs to be fully reflected in prices. "Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer," he said. Powell pointed out that the Fed is "adapting in real time" to ever-changing tariff policies.

Fed Governor Waller (hawk) told CNBC this morning that he doesn't see tariffs boosting inflation significantly, and the central bank should consider easing as soon as the next meeting in July. "I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate,” he said.

The market isn't buying into Waller's dovish tilt just yet, with Fed funds futures showing just a 14.5% probability of a 25 bp cut in July. A quarter-point cut isn't fully priced in until October, with 48 bps in easing priced for year-end.

Philly Fed Index was unchanged at -4.0 in June, below expectations of 0.0, versus -4.0 in May and a two-year low of -26.4 in April.

Leading Indicators -0.1% in June, in line with expectations, versus a negative revised -1.4% in May (was -1.0%). 


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$14.48 (-0.43%)
5-Day Change: -$87.17 (-2.54%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +44.21

Gold is poised for its first lower weekly close in three, and the biggest loss since the 12-May week. With the Fed still on hold, the dollar is set to close higher on the week, which has provided some pressure on the yellow metal.  Resilient risk appetite has also weighed on gold this week, despite elevated geopolitical risks and ongoing tariff uncertainty.



Additional information on the large metals discovery in Argentina may also be providing a headwind. Lundin Mining issued an update to the Mineral Resource estimate on Monday, essentially affirming its original estimates from May. Jack Lundin called it “one of the most significant greenfield discoveries in the last 30 years."

Estimates include the following: 13-million tonnes of measured and indicated copper, with 25-million tonnes inferred; 32-million ounces of gold measured and indicated, and 49-million ounces inferred; and 659-million ounces of silver measured and indicated, with 808-million ounces inferred.

Despite being under pressure this week, gold's corrective action below $3,400 has been limited. The 20-day moving average attracted some buying interest and kept more important supports at $3,320.62/19.56 and $3,300.00/$3,297.69 at bay.

A move back above $3,400 early next week would favor a retest of Monday's eight-week high at $3,449.13. Penetration of the latter, would bode well for a resumption of the dominant uptrend and a decisive push above $3,500.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$0.271 (-0.74%)
5-Day Change: +$0.304 (+0.83%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +25.49

Silver is set to close lower on the week, despite having set a 13-year high at $37.288 on Wednesday. Combined with an outside week (higher high, lower low), this creates some technical downside risk for the week ahead, with the gold/silver ratio holding support at 90.



While tests below $36 did attract some buying interest today, the $35.317/225 level (20-day MA and 23.6% retracement level) may be the initial short-term attraction. Today's overseas low at $35.570 now marks an intervening barrier.

A close above $36 to end the week would be somewhat encouraging. However, a move back above the midpoint of this week's range at $36.429 is needed to shift focus back above $37.

The February 2012 high at $37.430 is now protected by this week's high at $37.288. The former must be negated to keep silver on track for a push to the $38.750 Fibonacci objective.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Gold and silver consolidate, awaiting news from Fed

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Geopolitical tensions are higher today on speculation that the U.S. is poised to join Israel in its war against Iran. President Trump demanded UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER on Tuesday via TruthSocial and met with his national security team.

"I may do it, I may not do it, nobody knows what I'm going to do," Trump replied when asked if the U.S. would participate in strikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities. Tehran rattled its saber in response, warning that U.S. involvement would risk "all-out war."

The Fed is expected to remain on hold when the central bank announces policy this afternoon. The market will dissect the policy statement, economic projections, and Powell's presser in hopes of discerning when the easing campaign might resume. I believe the Fed will be intentionally opaque.

Sweden's Riksbank delivered the expected 25 bps cut. The BoJ left rates unchanged earlier in the week, which was also in line with expectations.

ECB Governing Council member Panetta warned that there are "substantial and difficult-to-quantify risks" for the economic outlook. Panetta specifically cited "conflicting signals in the U.S. trade policy" and the "recent escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran." 

"Against this backdrop, the ECB's Governing Council, at its most recent meeting, reaffirmed a flexible approach, keeping its options open," he said. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met briefly with President Trump at the G7 Summit on Monday but failed to extract any concessions on auto tariffs that are slated to be reinstated on July 9. The two leaders agreed to continue negotiating.

Housing Starts tumbled 9.8% to a five-year low 1.256M pace in May, below expectations of 1.360M, versus a revised 1.392M in April (was 1.361M). Permits fell 2% to a 1.393M pace from 1.422M in April. Completions rose  5.4% to 1.526M, versus 1.448M in April.

Initial Jobless Claims fell 5k to 245k in the week ended 14-Jun, in line with expectations, versus a revised 250k in the previous week. Continuing claims fell 6k to 1,945k in the 7-Jun week, above expectations of 1,940k, versus a revised 1,951k in the previous week (was 1,956k).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: -$8.53 (-0.25%)
5-Day Change: +$31.92 (+0.95%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,295.86 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +46.63

Gold remains consolidative below $3,400 amid conflicting pressures as the market awaits today's Fed policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to remain on hold, but the trade is hoping to find clues about the Fed's intentions for the remainder of the year.



The ongoing war between Israel and Iran should keep the yellow metal generally underpinned with haven interest. If the U.S. joins the fray, it would be a substantial escalation.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to fight Hamas in Gaza and exchange attacks with Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Lebanese government has warned Iranian proxy Hezbollah to stay out of the fight. And let's not forget that the war in Ukraine continues to rage.

A convincing move back above $3,400 would favor a retest of Monday's high at $3,449.13. Scope remains for new record highs above $3,500, which would shift focus to the $3,596.20 Fibonacci objective.

While the dollar index is trading off the three-year low set last week, the downtrend on the greenback remains broadly supportive to gold.

Initial support at $3,373.55/46 protects the more important $3,347.54/$3,344.27 zone, where the 20-day moving average corresponds with the 12-Jun low. Secondary tiers of support are noted at $3,320.62 and $3,300.00/$3,297.69.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.023 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: +$0.648 (+1.79%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +29.64

Silver eked out a fresh 13-year high of $37.388 in overseas trading before retreating modestly. Focus remains squarely on the upside in the wake of this month's range breakout.



That breakout projects as high as $41.159 based on a simple measuring objective. A breach of the February 2012 high at $37.430 is needed to perpetuate the uptrend. Such a move would lend credence to my next Fibonacci objective at $38.750, as well as the next big-round-number at $40.

A minor chart support at $36.592/514 protects recent lows at $36.183/065. I suspect dips back within the range will be seen as buying opportunities.

Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.