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Gold $3,336.30 $10.87 0.33% Silver $36.92 $0.09 0.25% Platinum $1,388.18 $16.31 1.19% Palladium $1,130.15 $(3.14) -0.28%
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Blog posts tagged with 'platinum'

Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Monday, June 9, 2025

Gold remains consolidative while silver and platinum add to gains

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Market optimism surrounding U.S.-Sino trade talks is helping keep risk appetite elevated. A delegation, led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is meeting with Chinese counterparts in London today.

“Our expectation is that... immediately after the handshake, any export controls from the U.S. will be eased, and the rare earths will be released in volume, and then we can go back to negotiating smaller matters,” said National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett on CNBC.

Citing tariff and policy uncertainty, the OECD downgraded U.S. GDP expectations to 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026 from 2.2% and 1.6% previously. Global growth expectations were nudged lower to 2.9% for 2025 and 2026, versus previous forecasts of 3.1% and 3.0%.

"Substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth," according to the OECD's latest economic outlook.

Riots erupted in LA over the weekend amid protests against immigration enforcement. There are expectations that anti-ICE demonstrations will occur in other cities this week, including in the nation's capital during Saturday's Flag Day celebration and military parade.

The trade is watching the situation closely to see what additional measures the White House might take to protect Federal agents in LA and elsewhere. There is some concern that we could see a summer of civil unrest similar to 2020.

Russia launched another massive drone and missile barrage against Ukraine on Monday. The attacks from each side have intensified in recent weeks, even as ceasefire talks continue.

Market focus will be on U.S. inflation data this week. Expectations tilt toward the ongoing moderation of price risks, helped by lower oil and gas prices. Tepid inflation readings could increase the likelihood of rate cuts. By that same token, hotter-than-expected inflation would solidify that the Fed is on hold.

Wholesale Sales rose 0.1% in April, below expectations of +0.2%, versus a revised +0.3% in March (was +0.4%). Inventories rose 0.2% on expectations of UNCH, versus a revised +0.3% in March (was +0.4%).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$2.02 (+0.06%)
5-Day Change: -$62.56 (-1.85%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,289.43 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +42.93

Gold is maintaining a consolidative tone to start the week, as trade and growth optimism weigh on haven interest. At the same time, a weak dollar, persistent geopolitical risks, silver and platinum strength, and mounting concerns about U.S. social unrest offer support.



This week's U.S. inflation data could provide some impetus to at least move out of the range within the range. Both hotter inflation and prospects for lower rates are generally supportive for gold, although the latter tends to stoke risk appetite.

The first range is defined as $3,401.81/$3,203.52. The broader range is $3,495.89/$3,127.12. The midpoint of that primary range is at $3,311.51, and we've traded on both sides of that today.

"We need to see a real shock for prices to break away," BofA's Francisco Blanch told Bloomberg Surveillance this morning. Blanch still likes $4,000 as a target, although that now "may be a 2026 story.”

A breach of last week's high at $3,401.81 would bode well for tests of more important resistances at  $3,416.97 (78.6% retracement of the corrective decline) and $3,431.63 (08-May high). Above that, the record high at $3,495.89 would be back in play.

Global ETFs saw a modest inflow of 8.8 tonnes last week, led by North American investors. It was the third straight week of net inflows, suggesting investors remain interested despite a month and a half of price consolidation.

The COT report for last week revealed that net speculative long positions increased by 13.7k to a seven-week high of 187.9k contracts, versus 174.2k in the previous week. It was the third straight weekly increase.

CFTC Gold speculative net positions


The 02-Jun low at $3,289.46 marks the low for the month thus far and has contained the downside today. The 20-day moving average is at $3,300.10 and is significant on a close basis.

A close below the 20-day and new lows for the month would leave secondary supports at $3,269.21 (50-day MA) and $3,251.28 (29-May low) vulnerable to tests. Below the latter, the low of the first range at $3,203.52 would be in play.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.263 (+0.73%)
5-Day Change: +$1.547 (+4.45%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $36.399
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $36.399
Weighted Alpha: +26.97

Silver continues its march higher, spurred by last week's major range breakout. The white metal begins the week with a round of fresh 12-year highs that brings the next psychological barrier at $37 within striking distance.



With the $36.568 Fibonacci objective exceeded, confidence in the scenario that calls for a test of the peak from February 2012 at $37.430 has been bolstered. Beyond that, $40 is looking increasingly appealing.

With gold stuck in its range, the gold/silver ratio has plunged to 10-week lows to pressure congestive support around 90. The next tiers of significant support are at 88.858, and a series of lows from early in the year at 87.706, down to 87.192.

Not surprisingly, SLV saw large inflows of 13.05Moz last week as silver took off to the races. Net assets of the fund are now more than $17 bln. The number of ounces in trust stands at 472,914,657.40 as of 06-Jun.

Net speculative long positions surged 7.8k to a 10-week high of 60.8k according to the latest COT report, versus 53.0k in the previous week. It was the third consecutive weekly inflow.

CFTC Silver speculative net positions


With Investors jumping back on board, this rally may have legs. However, be wary of silver's high volatility and the propensity for institutional investors to punish retail investors when they least expect it.

“With no one in the market able to pinpoint as yet what’s driven the move to 13-year highs…silver has confirmed its reputation as the ‘Devil’s metal,’ leaping without warning and leaving the technical picture very bullish for further gains,” said BullionVault's Adrian Ash.

I believe this was indeed a technical breakout, with bullish supply/demand fundamentals as the backdrop. Demand is expected to outstrip supply for a fifth straight year, according to the Silver Institute. More demand than supply equates with higher prices.

Silver is being helped by strength in copper, amid an uptick in global growth optimism (last week's OECD report notwithstanding), and ongoing worries that copper could still be hit by tariffs. Four-year highs in platinum provide another layer to the story.

On the downside, congestion around $36 and the Asian low at $35.948 mark initial support. Friday's low at $35.654 is a more significant level to watch.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Monday, June 9, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Wholesale Sales (+0.2% expected).
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Friday, June 6, 2025

Gold poised for higher weekly close, but silver steals the show

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The headline NFP print for May beat expectations, but negative back-month revisions totalling 95k curbed the market's enthusiasm somewhat. With the labor market still on a modestly positive trajectory, and in light of President Trump's "very good" call with China's Xi on Thursday, the trade heads into the weekend with some appetite for risk.

The decent NFP report offsets some of the growth worries that emerged earlier in the week. Rate cut expectations have been dialed back once again.

Trump said his call with Xi focused exclusively on trade and had "resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries". Trump indicated that trade talks between the world's two largest economies would resume shortly.

"He invited me to China and I invited him here," Trump said. "We both accepted," he added, perhaps signalling a significant easing of tensions between the two superpowers.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russia launched a massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine, apparently as retribution for Kyiv's recent drone attacks on Russian airbases. Meanwhile, Israel struck Hezbollah drone production sites in Lebanon.

The escalating feud between President Trump and Elon Musk is drawing additional attention to U.S. fiscal concerns. Musk's attacks on the so-called "Big, Beautiful Bill" could give Republican deficit hawks in the Senate the cover they need to break ranks amid conflicting stories on the long-term debt implications of the BBB. Trump's hope to have the legislation on his desk for signing by Independence Day is at risk.

Nonfarm Payrolls rose 139k in May, above expectations of +125k, versus a negative revised 147k in April (was +177k). The jobless rate was steady at 4.2%. Hourly earnings rose 0.4% on expectations of +0.3%. The average workweek was steady at 34.3 hours.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$7.45 (+0.22%)
5-Day Change: +$66.72 (+2.03%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.57

Gold ends the week under modest pressure as risk-on sentiment saps haven demand. However, geopolitical risks and fiscal worries continue to underpin the market, with silver providing some help as well. Despite the inability to sustain the brief foray back above $3,400, the yellow metal still appears poised for a higher weekly close.



While gold is consolidative just above the midpoint of the range that has been in place since 15-May, I continue to view price action since the all-time high was set on 22-Apr as a continuation pattern within the long-term uptrend.

A more convincing move above $3,400 would clear the way for tests of Fibonacci resistance at $3,416.97 and the 07-May high at $3,431.63. Above the latter, $3,495.89 would be back in play with potential to $3,596.20 and beyond.

Global gold ETFs saw net outflows in May (19.1 tonnes), the first since November. As the White House backed away from its most punitive tariff threats, risk appetite improved, safe-haven bets were pared, and investors were drawn back into the stock market.


All-in-all, it was a very modest retracement of the solid inflows seen earlier in the year. Ongoing uncertainty on trade, heightened geopolitical and growth risks, and a general global bias toward easier monetary policy should underpin demand.

The 20-day moving average bolsters congestive support around $3,300. The rising 50-day moving average should move into this area in the week ahead and help to keep last week's low at $3,251.28 at bay.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.588 (+1.65%)
5-Day Change: +$3.155 (+9.57%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $36.243
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $36.243
Weighted Alpha: +27.68

Silver has had quite a week, clearing numerous key resistances. The white metal traded above $36 for the first time since February 2012 and is on track for a weekly gain of more than 9%. The white metal is up more than 24% YTD.



I attribute much of this week's action to technical activity. As key resistances were negated, buy stops were triggered, and the bull camp was encouraged to pile in. With gold basically holding steady, we finally got the much-needed correction in the ratio.

The gold/silver ratio peaked above 107 in April and remained elevated around 100 throughout May. The ratio plunged nearly 8% this week to a nine-week low of 92.31. Congestive support around 90 is a likely attraction.

The $36.169 Fibonacci objective in silver was satisfied and exceeded, shifting focus to $36.568. However, the range breakout builds a compelling technical case for $40 silver. The high from February 2012 at $37.430 provides a solid intervening barrier.

Friday's Asian low at $35.654 marks first support. Thursday's U.S. low at $35.391 protects $35 and former resistance, now support, at $34.853/543.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Friday, June 6, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early U.S. trading.
 
Silver at 12-year highs above $36.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Nonfarm Payrolls (+125k expected), Consumer Credit.
Morning Metals Call
Thursday, June 5, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are higher in early US trading.
 
Quote Board
 
US calendar features Challenger Layoffs, Trade Balance, Q1 Productivity & ULC Revision, Initial Claims.
 
FedSpeak for Kugler, Harker, & Schmid.
 
ECB delivers expected 25 bps rate cut.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Gold consolidates within yesterday's range as focus shifts to May jobs data

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: CBO scoring of the House-passed reconciliation bill revealed that taxes will be cut by $3.75 trillion and the deficit will increase by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. While the White House is questioning the veracity of the results, concerns about the fiscal situation in the U.S. are escalating. Even Trump ally Elon Musk roundly criticized the legislation as a "disgusting abomination.”

The legislation is currently in the hands of the Senate, which is likely to make significant amendments. At that point, the two houses of Congress will need to reconcile the differences. President Trump's desire to have the legislation on his desk by the Fourth of July is looking questionable.

Today's ADP Employment Survey undershot expectations by a significant margin. This offsets the better-than-expected JOLTS print from Tuesday, leaving downside risk for Friday's NFP report.

Services PMI beat expectations, but the ISM number was a miss. These data temper some of the growth optimism stemming from manufacturing data beats earlier in the week. Rises in the price components increase inflation worries.

The net effect of today's data is a modest uptick in rate cut expectations as reflected by Fed funds futures. The futures are pricing 55 bps by year-end.

The Bank of Canada held steady on rates, as was widely expected. BOC Governor Macklem acknowledged that Q2 growth would be substantially weaker in the face of tariff headwinds. "There was a clear consensus to hold policy unchanged as we gain more information," he said.

MBA Mortgage Applications fell 3.9% in the 30-May week, versus -1.2% in the previous week. The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.92% from 6.98% in the previous week.

ADP Employment Survey showed a private payrolls increase of just 37k in May, well below expectations of +120k, versus a revised +60k in April (was +62k). This was the weakest print since the 53k decline in March 2023.

S&P Global Services PMI was revised up to 53.7 for May, versus a 52.3 flash and 50.8 in April. Prices charged jumped to a 33-month high of 58.6 from 53.0 in April.

Services ISM fell 1.7 points to 49.9 in May, below expectations of 52.0, versus 51.6 in April. That leaves the index in contraction (albeit slightly) for the first time since last June. Prices paid surged 3.6 points to a 30-month high of 68.7, versus 65.1 in April.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$2.28 (-0.07%)
5-Day Change: +$87.60 (+2.66%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +48.67

Gold is trading higher within Tuesday's range, buoyed by heightened fiscal worries and signs of revived inflation from the services sector. A tilt toward more dovish Fed expectations and a weaker dollar provide additional underpinnings for the yellow metal.



New highs for the week above $3,389.78 would bode well for expected tests back above $3,400. Additional tiers of resistance at $3,416.97 (78.6% retracement of the corrective decline) and $3,431.63 (08-May high) protect the all-time high at $3,495.89.

A convincing move to new record highs above $3,500 would shift focus to $3,596.20 based on a Fibonacci projection. However, such a move would also return considerable confidence to the longer-term objective at $4,000.

On the downside, Tuesday's low at $3,338.34 and the $3,324.40/28.00 zone protect the 20-day moving average at $3,293.76. Penetration of the latter would favor further consolidation into the lower half of the range.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.157 (-0.45%)
5-Day Change: +$1.449 (+4.40%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.783
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +19.65

Silver remains consolidative within the upper half of Monday's impressive $1.805 range, supported by persistent strength in gold, a softer dollar, and some hope that direct talks between President Trump and China's Xi this week will ease trade tensions.



Key resistance marked by the high from October at $34.853 successfully contained the upside earlier in the week, leaving the broader range intact. While Monday's strong surge leaves the short-term bias in favor of further attacks on the upside, recent volatility has the trade on edge.

Failure to muster a breakout in short order is likely to lead to position squaring ahead of the weekend. That would send the white metal back below $34 with potential to the $33 congestion zone.

A breakout above $34.783/853 would confirm that the uptrend is back underway, targeting $36.169 initially based on a Fibonacci projection. A long-standing retracement level at $35.217 provides an intervening barrier. Surther out, $40 silver would look increasingly appealing.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Survey, Services PMI & ISM, EIA Data, Beige Book.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Gold retreats modestly on downtick in trade tensions

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Markets have calmed somewhat after the White House said that Trump and Xi Jinping are likely to speak directly this week. Investors are hopeful that the two leaders can get broader trade negotiations back on track.

Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that a mega trade deal with India could be finalised soon. While markets have grown increasingly impatient with progress on trade, Lutnick reminds us that "these kind of deals used to take two or three years, and we're trying to get them done in a month."

Fair enough, it's a big lift. However, it's a lift of the Administration's own making. The UK deal was relatively easy, as the U.S. typically has a trade surplus with them. The tougher deals are with countries that contribute to the massive trade deficit.

Manufacturing activity in China contracted in May as tariffs began to bite. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, versus 50.4 in April. It was the first drop in eight months and the lowest reading in 32 months.

Amid mounting growth worries in the world's second-largest economy, there are expectations of more stimulus. China's Premier Li Qiang said last week that additional measures are indeed being considered, including some that are "unconventional."

The dollar has retraced some of yesterday's losses, but price action in the index remains confined to Monday's range. Nonetheless, with more than 78.6% of the April/May corrective rally now retraced, considerable credence has been returned to the downtrend that began this year. The dollar index posted five consecutive lower monthly closes this year.

Recent FedSpeak continues to highlight the need for clarity before rates are adjusted further. This strongly suggests that the easing campaign remains on hold. Fed funds futures still imply a 25 bps cut in October, but 50 bps in easing by year-end is no longer fully priced in.

Factory Orders tumbled 3.7% in April, below expectations of -3.2%, versus a negative revised +3.4% in March (was +4.3%). It was the first decline in five months and the biggest drop since January 2024. Inventories fell 0.1% after rising a revised 0.1% in March.

JOLTS Job Openings rose 191k to 7,391k in April, above expectations of 7,100k, versus a revised 7,200k in March (was 7,192k). The data suggest a healthy labor market and imply upside risk for the 125k NFP consensus.

RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 2.7% to 49.2 for June on expectations of 49.1, versus 47.9 in May. "A pause on mindless tariffs (that would greatly hinder U.S. exports if implemented) has coincided with rising confidence," said RCM's John Tamny.


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$26.50 (-0.78%)
5-Day Change: +$58.31 (+1.77%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.70

Gold has retreated from a four-week high of $3,389.78 set in Asia as trade tensions with China cool modestly, providing some lift for the dollar.  However, broader trade and geopolitical risks remain supportive for the yellow metal.



While the dominant uptrend appears to be reasserting itself, important resistance at $3,431.63 (07-May high) must be negated to clear the way for a retest of the record high. The 78.6% retracement level of the recent corrective phase comes in at $3,416.97, and now today's high at $3,389.78 provides an additional intervening barrier.

Central bank gold purchases slowed in April to 12 tonnes. Poland remains the most aggressive buyer year to date. The PBoC added 2 tonnes, marking the sixth straight month of purchases.

The World Gold Council speculates that the slowdown may be attributable to the latest round of record-high prices that reached $3,500 in April. "While the rally to multiple new record highs is unlikely to deter central banks from buying gold – as they tend to be more strategic in nature – it could explain some of the deceleration in the pace of monthly net buying," wrote WGC Senior Analyst Krishan Gopaul.

"Fears about the impact of US tariffs have been the overwhelming factor driving gold in the past few months," says John Reade of the WGC in a conversation with FT Advisor. "There’s a sense that the rules have changed, and in that context gold is being re-evaluated as a strategic asset, not just a defensive one," he added.

It strikes me that central banks already view gold as a strategic asset. Allocations have grown in recent years as emerging countries sought to diversify reserves, reduce reliance on the dollar, and mitigate exposure to sanctions.

High net worth investors are increasingly following the lead of the central banks. "The percentage of high net worth (HNW) investors holding gold has increased from 20% to 38% — a 90% jump in only 15 months," according to State Street Global Advisors.

"The ability to hedge against market volatility and persistently low correlation to both equities and fixed income can potentially make gold a compelling portfolio play," says SSGA. That suggests that gold should continue to grow in acceptance among average investors, providing a boost to demand.

The $3,324.40/28.00 zone provides initial support and protects the 20-day moving average at $3,293.35. Penetration of the latter would favor further consolidation into the lower half of the range.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: -$0.487 (-0.70%)
5-Day Change: +$1.118 (+3.36%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.783
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +19.38

Silver started the week with an impressive rally of more than 5%, reaching seven-month highs. The white metal followed gold higher on rising trade and geopolitical tensions. A weaker dollar provided additional lift, as did the shake-out of stubborn shorts as important resistances were violated.



Key resistance marked by the high from October at $34.853 was approached but remains intact. The white metal has pulled back into the range as gold eased and the dollar firmed on a downtick in trade tensions.

A breach of $34.783/853 is needed to confirm the upside breakout. Such a move would target $36.169 initially based on a Fibonacci projection, with an important long-standing retracement level at $35.217 providing an intervening barrier. However, the longer-term bullish implications of such a range breakout would be to $40, and beyond.

If silver is unable to muster a breakout fairly quickly, I'd look for a retreat to today's low at $34.015. Below that, a return to consolidation around $33 would be likely.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

Non-Reliance and Risk Disclosure: The opinions expressed here are for general information purposes only and should not be construed as trade recommendations, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any precious metals product. The material presented is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are current as of the time of posting and only represent the views of the author and not those of Zaner Metals LLC unless otherwise expressly noted.

Morning Metals Call
Tuesday, June 3, 2025
Good morning. The precious metals are mostly lower in early U.S. trading.
 
Quote Board
 
U.S. calendar features Factory Orders, JOLTS Job Openings, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, Auto Sales.
 
FedSpeak due from Bostic, Cook, & Goolsbee.
Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Monday, June 2, 2025

Gold surges on haven appeal as trade and geopolitical risks escalate

OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: On Sunday, Ukraine staged surprise drone attacks on airfields within Russia that destroyed dozens of military aircraft on the ground. This attack comes a week after Russia conducted some of the largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine appears to be escalating even as U.S.-sponsored peace talks in Istanbul continue. Heightened geopolitical tensions are contributing to risk-off sentiment.

The market's patience continues to be tested on trade. "You're going to see over the next couple of weeks, really, first class deals for the American worker," said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

The trade is skeptical. President Trump announced that tariffs on steel and aluminum will double on Wednesday. The 90-day pause on broader tariffs is set to expire early next month, despite ongoing legal challenges to the President's authority to impose those tariffs.

Talks with China have reportedly stalled amid accusations from both sides that the terms of the preliminary agreement are being violated. The White House indicated that Trump and Xi may hold direct talks this week.

The uptick in trade tensions and ongoing fiscal worries have weighed on the dollar. The dollar index has now retraced more than 78.6% of the recent corrective gains, returning considerable credence to this year's downtrend.

S&P Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 52.0 for May, versus a flash reading of 52.3 and 50.2 in April. It was the fifth consecutive print above 50, indicating ongoing expansion.

Manufacturing ISM fell 0.2 points to 48.5 in May, below expectations of 49.3, versus 48.7 in April. Prices edged lower to 69.4 from 69.8 in April.

Construction Spending fell -0.4% in April, below expectations of +0.3%, versus a revised -0.8% in March (was -0.5%).


GOLD

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$58.10 (+1.77%)
5-Day Change: +$13.72 (+0.41%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,287.64 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +47.51

Gold surged to fresh four-week highs, boosted by heightened trade and geopolitical risks. Continued weakness in the dollar is providing additional lift.



The breach of resistance at $3,365.41 bodes well for short-term tests back above $3,400. The next tiers of significant resistance are noted at $3,416.97 (78.6% retracement of the corrective decline) and $3,431.63 08-May high). Penetration of the latter would bode well for new all-time highs and a resumption of the dominant uptrend.

A minor intraday chart point at $3,345.45 protects the 20-day moving average, which comes in at $3,296.98 today. Today's Asian low at $3,289.46 protects more important resistances marked by Friday's low at $3,277.18, and Thursday's low at $3,251.28.


SILVER

OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CST: +$0.303 (+0.92%)
5-Day Change: -$0.193 (-0.58%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $34.543
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $34.853
Weighted Alpha: +14.20

Silver jumped to nine-week highs above $34, underpinned by strength in gold and a weak dollar. While today's gains bring key highs at $34.543 and $34.853 within striking distance, ongoing trade tensions continue to pose headwinds.



It would take new 12-year highs above $34.853 to reestablish the uptrend. Such a move would shift focus to Fibonacci/chart resistance at $35.217/348 initially.

The early U.S. low at $33.224 marks first support. Below that, today's intraday low at $32.978 is bolstered by the 20-day moving average. More formidable support is noted at $32.763/725, where last week's low corresponds closely with the 50-day MA.


Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com

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