Zaner Daily Precious Metals Commentary
Thursday, July 10, 2025Gold and silver remain well contained within their ranges, awaiting fresh inputs
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Copper is back pressuring record highs after President Trump clarified that 50% tariffs will take effect on Aug 1. While consistency and clarity have not been hallmarks of the Administration's trade policy, U.S. companies will likely accelerate stockpiling over the next several weeks.
Hoarding, associated with tariff front-running, has been driving up the price of copper ever since President Trump first launched an investigation into copper imports early in his term. At the first mention of 50% tariffs early this week, copper surged to record highs near $6.
Trump threatened Brazil with tariffs of 50%, even though the U.S. has carried a trade surplus with the country. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said that he will retaliate with reciprocal 50% tariffs.
Trump has a beef with President Lula, after former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, was charged with an attempted coup. "This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about!," wrote Trump on TruthSocial.
Despite Trump dialing up the pressure on trading partners that have not yet struck deals, the trade remains tilted toward risk-on. The resilience of the U.S. economy, expectations that the Fed will resume easing later in the year, optimism that trade deals will be worked out, and hopes for a Gaza ceasefire are all underpinnning risk appetite.
The minutes from the June FOMC meeting came out yesterday afternoon, and as expected, they didn't provide any new insights. The Fed remains on hold amid trade policy uncertainties and generally balanced price and growth risks.
Initial Jobless Claims fell 5k to 227k in the week ended 5-Jul, below expectations of 234k, versus a revised 232k in the previous week (was 233k). Continuing claims rose 10k to 1,965k in the 28-Jun week, versus 1,955k in the previous week.
GOLD
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$12.77 (+0.39%)
5-Day Change: -$6.44 (-0.18%)
YTD Range: $2,607.16 - $3,495.89
52-Week Range: $2,352.28 - $3,495.89
Weighted Alpha: +37.06
Gold is trading modestly higher for a second straight session, even as the dollar index edged to a two-week high. The yellow metal continues to straddle the midpoint of the range at $3,311.51, awaiting fresh impetus.
The dollar index rebounded from yesterday's intraday losses, notching a seventh consecutive higher close, and seems to be on track for an eighth. However, the DX is less than 1.5% above the more than three-year low set last week. Recent dollar gains appear to be corrective.
The dearth of U.S. economic data this week has the trade looking ahead to next week's inflation and retail sales reports. CPI is out on Tuesday (+0.3% expected), PPI on Wednesday (+0.2% expected), and retail sales on Thursday (+0.1% expected).
While gold remains entrenched in its range, the chart pattern that has developed over the past couple of months appears to be a continuation pattern. This favors an eventual upside breakout and resumption of the dominant uptrend.
A breach of Tuesday's high at $3,344.27 would clear the way for probes back above $3,400. More substantial resistance marked by the 16-Jun high at $3,449.14 must be exceeded to put the record high at $3,500 back in play.
Yesterday's low at $3,284.61 protects the more important 30-Jun low at $3,256.02. The 100-day moving average has risen to the $3,200 zone, which should keep the range low at $3,127.12 (15-May) at bay.
SILVER
OVERNIGHT CHANGE THROUGH 6:00 AM CT: +$0.362 (+0.99%)
5-Day Change: -$0.186 (-0.50%)
YTD Range: $28.565 - $37.288
52-Week Range: $26.524 - $37.288
Weighted Alpha: +23.91
Silver is recovering somewhat from three days of losses, after failing to sustain Monday's probe back above $37. The white metal is being helped by a second day of gains in gold and ongoing strength in copper.
Market focus remains on trade developments, and copper has become an increasingly significant piece of that puzzle. As silver has migrated in recent decades from a monetary metal to an industrial metal, it has become less correlated with gold and arguably more correlated with copper.
The gold/silver ratio has traded above 100 in recent years, rising from a historic average of 15, to a 100-year average of 40, to a 25-year average of 68. The copper/silver ratio has been in a fairly stable 0.3/0.1 range throughout much of history, but more recently has been confined to the lower half of that range.
Tuesday's high at $36.864 has been slightly penetrated, and a more convincing breach would bode well for further probes above $37. The more substantial $37.198/288 zone must be negated to bolster confidence in previously established upside objectives at $38.750 (Fibonacci) and $40 (psychological).
On the downside, the 20-day moving average ($36.453) has provided decent support over the past week and should help keep Monday's low at $36.201 at bay. More substantial support at $35.369 (24-Jun low) is considered well protected at this point.
Peter A. Grant
Vice President, Senior Metals Strategist
Zaner Metals LLC
312-549-9986 Direct/Text
[email protected]
www.zanermetals.com
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