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While the US dollar is showing some vulnerability on its charts early today, treasury yields may have temporarily peaked leaving the primary outside market influences slightly supportive of gold.

However, we see no reason to take control away from the bear camp with the hedge funds reducing their long positioning last week, another week of ETF holding declines, an overbought net spec and fund positioning, a residual negative global commodity market environment, and perhaps most importantly from growing economic concerns in China.

With the last COT positioning report showing the net spec and fund long in gold near the highest levels since May 2022, falling trading volume and declining open interest on last week's recovery bounce, the bear camp retains control over the trend...[MORE]

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While the gold and silver markets are showing initial strength this morning, outside market action leaves the bear camp with a prevailing edge.

In fact, despite initial weakness in the dollar, disastrous retail sales readings from the UK should leave the dollar in favor and physical commodities like gold off balance.

Furthermore, US treasury yields have clawed higher this week with yields overnight reaching the highest level since December 13th...[MORE]

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While February gold did not post a lower low trade overnight, fundamental developments favor more declines and a trade below $2000.

In addition to hawkish ECB dialogue predicting no rate cuts until summer, expectations for a US cut have been pushed further into the future with US data continuing to signal an economy holding together which in turn has been accompanied by a consistent reduction in the probability of a first quarter US rate cut.

However, the bull camp should get some credit for prices tracking in positive territory this morning especially with the Chinese Premier discounting the prospects of a stimulus package from the government...[MORE]

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Fortunately for the bull camp in gold and silver the upside breakout extension in the dollar overnight has been offset by a minimal decline in US treasury yields.

However, the charts in the dollar project higher action ahead, and the US economic reports slate today is very active potentially rekindling rate cut timing debate.

In the end, the dollar is underpinned, and gold is pressured from Fed Gov. Waller's comments yesterday cautioning the Fed against rushing to cut rates before establishing inflation has been slayed...[MORE]

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