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While events that are widely anticipated to present significant volatility can sometimes be disappointing with a muted response, the stakes for many financial markets are significant today as the pendulum of expectations for an early US rate cut has been pulled down with a series of US Fed speeches generally indicating the fight against inflation is not complete yet.

Fortunately for the bull camp in gold and silver the action in bond and dollar markets this week has not shifted definitively bearish from the reduction in rate cut expectations but today presents a possible breakout session with a dollar trade above 102.385 a big problem for the bull camp.

On the other hand, a trade in the dollar below 101.835 could save the day for the bull camp and launch February gold above $2050...[MORE]

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Jan 11 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed on Thursday, buoyed by a softer dollar, while markets awaited a key U.S. inflation report later in the day that could help gauge the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory this year.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,033.70 per ounce, as of 1206 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.6% to $2,038.90...[LINK]

While it appears gold and silver have settled into sideways consolidation patterns, that is likely to end with tomorrow's US CPI report, especially if a slightly hotter reading is posted. However, analysis of the data is difficult given the potential for fractional change.

The range trade is certainly justified considering that neither gold nor silver has a definitive internal fundamental driven bias with prices of gold within proximity to all-time highs and the speculative positioning in gold futures and options leaving the market vulnerable to stop loss selling on violations of key support.

With the US dollar posting a higher high yesterday and posting a higher low, and treasury prices likely to remain capped, the gold market could fail at the $2,025 level in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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Jan 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, supported by a slightly weaker U.S. dollar ahead of a critical inflation report that could offer some clues on whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year.

Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,033.90 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,040.00 per ounce...[LINK]

While gold has recovered from yesterday's spike-down move and has spent the overnight trade in positive territory, the charts have not reversed course and we suspect more declines ahead which in turn should pull down open interest.

In fact, it should be noted that the declines in gold have been accompanied by periodic jumps in trading volume which we think confirms the downward tilt.

While gold has seen outside market influence wain, treasury prices appear to be trending negative for gold, and we see the general impact from outside markets as bearish in the near term...[MORE]

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Gold prices rose on Tuesday after touching a three-week low in the previous session as traders reassessed interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve after a report showed consumers expect lower inflation this year.

Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,038.99 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since Dec. 18 on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,045.4 per ounce...[LINK]

With a fresh lower low and the lowest trade since December 13th in February gold overnight the downtrend of the last two weeks looks to extend.

Certainly, the gold bulls were initially heartened by the failure to sustain dollar gains after a better-than-expected US jobs report but given the lack of definitively bullish internal fundamental storylines for gold, the bull camp "needs" a definitively weaker dollar!

Not surprisingly, investors remain cool toward gold with ETF holdings last week falling by 349,662 ounces leaving holdings down 0.4% early in the new year...[MORE]

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