Blog posts tagged with 'copper'

While it appears gold and silver have settled into sideways consolidation patterns, that is likely to end with tomorrow's US CPI report, especially if a slightly hotter reading is posted. However, analysis of the data is difficult given the potential for fractional change.

The range trade is certainly justified considering that neither gold nor silver has a definitive internal fundamental driven bias with prices of gold within proximity to all-time highs and the speculative positioning in gold futures and options leaving the market vulnerable to stop loss selling on violations of key support.

With the US dollar posting a higher high yesterday and posting a higher low, and treasury prices likely to remain capped, the gold market could fail at the $2,025 level in the coming sessions...[MORE]

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While gold has recovered from yesterday's spike-down move and has spent the overnight trade in positive territory, the charts have not reversed course and we suspect more declines ahead which in turn should pull down open interest.

In fact, it should be noted that the declines in gold have been accompanied by periodic jumps in trading volume which we think confirms the downward tilt.

While gold has seen outside market influence wain, treasury prices appear to be trending negative for gold, and we see the general impact from outside markets as bearish in the near term...[MORE]

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With a fresh lower low and the lowest trade since December 13th in February gold overnight the downtrend of the last two weeks looks to extend.

Certainly, the gold bulls were initially heartened by the failure to sustain dollar gains after a better-than-expected US jobs report but given the lack of definitively bullish internal fundamental storylines for gold, the bull camp "needs" a definitively weaker dollar!

Not surprisingly, investors remain cool toward gold with ETF holdings last week falling by 349,662 ounces leaving holdings down 0.4% early in the new year...[MORE]

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With a rising dollar and rising interest rates pressuring the markets again this morning and the prospect of US rate cut being pushed back with further strong US jobs data today the slide from the late December high is likely to extend in earnest today.

In other words, without a surprisingly weak jobs report reductions in the probability of a March rate cut should continue.

Keep in mind, US non-farm payroll counts are still "growing" (albeit monthly additions are shrinking) and impatient bond traders have started to question their perception of the potential for a March cut...[MORE]

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Jan 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Friday and were on track for their first weekly fall in four, weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, while investors keenly awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.

Spot gold was down 0.2% to $2,038.49 per ounce as of 1223 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,045.40...[LINK]

The weakening dollar gives the gold bulls the upper hand this morning.

Although the depth of this bull move is questionable as many bond traders have cut their March rate cut probabilities to 70%, from 85%, sending US rates higher.

With other nations potentially cutting interest rates more aggressively than the Fed, the dollar is at risk of staying stronger than expected, putting pressure on gold prices, even despite potential rate cuts. Gold bulls must take this shift in timing and probabilities seriously...[MORE]

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Jan 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low on Thursday, as a pullback in the dollar lifted demand among investors who are looking ahead to a U.S. jobs report that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,044.69 per ounce as of 1210 GMT, after hitting its lowest since Dec. 21 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,052.10 per ounce...[LINK]

The gold bears were out this morning as worries over Japanese insurers dumping U.S. government bonds, to cover losses related to this week's earthquakes, sent both bond yields and the dollar sharply higher.

This gold sell-off comes as central banks continue to talk about the need for weaker economic data before they discuss rate cuts, and, on cue, we saw better-than-expected employment data in Europe, adding to worries of a slower-than-expected central bank pivot.

Furthermore, the trade today could see early selling intensify if US ISM manufacturing data comes in positive as expected especially with the afternoon release of the FOMC meeting minutes as any pushing back of US rate cut timing is clearly a major blow to the bull case...[MORE]

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The bulls started the New Year in control as gold prices rallied in the early morning after Israel attacked Syria in response to a rocket attack, and Turkey arrested 33 Israeli "spies".

There is fear that this might be the start of a deeper regional destabilization following the US Navy's sinking of three Houthi ships in the Red Sea, and Iran sending a warship into the Red Sea.

US interest rates were higher overnight and the dollar managed to rally sharply to start the year...[MORE]

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The early corrective action in gold and silver this morning is very surprising, especially with the dollar breaking out and posting the lowest trade since the second half of July.

Certainly, a slight uptick in implied treasury yields suggests the rate-cut mentality is at least temporarily overplayed.

On the other hand, today's US initial and ongoing claims data will likely revive the rate cut watch with the probability of Fed easing rising incrementally with each soft US data point...[MORE]

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